scholarly journals Impacts of Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Transports on Sea Ice Extent

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 7197-7215
Author(s):  
Jake Aylmer ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Transport Component ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Atmospheric Heat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractClimate-model biases in ocean heat transport (OHT) have been proposed as a major contributor to uncertainties in projections of sea ice extent. To better understand the impact of OHT on sea ice extent and compare it to that of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), an idealized, zonally averaged energy balance model (EBM) is developed. This is distinguished from previous EBM work by coupling a diffusive mixed layer OHT and a prescribed OHT contribution, with an atmospheric EBM and a reduced-complexity sea ice model. The ice-edge latitude is roughly linearly related to the convergence of each heat transport component, with different sensitivities depending on whether the ice cover is perennial or seasonal. In both regimes, Bjerknes compensation (BC) occurs such that the response of AHT partially offsets the impact of changing OHT. As a result, the effective sensitivity of ice-edge retreat to increasing OHT is only ~2/3 of the actual sensitivity (i.e., eliminating the BC effect). In the perennial regime, the sensitivity of the ice edge to OHT is about twice that to AHT, while in the seasonal regime they are similar. The ratio of sensitivities is, to leading order, determined by atmospheric longwave feedback parameters in the perennial regime. Here, there is no parameter range in which the ice edge is more sensitive to AHT than OHT.

scholarly journals Impact of sea-ice thickness initialized in April on Arctic sea-ice extent predictability with the MIROC climate model

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (82) ◽  
pp. 97-105
Author(s):  
Jun Ono ◽  
Yoshiki Komuro ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of April sea-ice thickness (SIT) initialization on the predictability of September sea-ice extent (SIE) is investigated based on a series of perfect model ensemble experiments using the MIROC5.2 climate model. Ensembles with April SIT initialization can accurately predict the September SIE for greater lead times than in cases without the initialization – up to 2 years ahead. The persistence of SIT correctly initialized in April contributes to the skilful prediction of SIE in the first September. On the other hand, errors in the initialization of SIT in April cause errors in the predicted sea-ice concentration and thickness in the Pacific sector from July to September and consequently influence the predictive skill with respect to SIE in September. The present study suggests that initialization of the April SIT in the Pacific sector significantly improves the accuracy of the September SIE forecasts by decreasing the errors in sea-ice fields from July to September.

scholarly journals The Response of the Sea Ice Edge to Atmospheric and Oceanic Jet Formation

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 2292-2316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. B. S. Heorton ◽  
Daniel L. Feltham ◽  
Julian C. R. Hunt
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sharp Change ◽  
Jet Formation ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The sea ice edge presents a region of many feedback processes between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice (Maslowski et al.). Here the authors focus on the impact of on-ice atmospheric and oceanic flows at the sea ice edge. Mesoscale jet formation due to the Coriolis effect is well understood over sharp changes in surface roughness such as coastlines (Hunt et al.). This sharp change in surface roughness is experienced by the atmosphere and ocean encountering a compacted sea ice edge. This paper presents a study of a dynamic sea ice edge responding to prescribed atmospheric and oceanic jet formation. An idealized analytical model of sea ice drift is developed and compared to a sea ice climate model [the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE)] run on an idealized domain. The response of the CICE model to jet formation is tested at various resolutions. It is found that the formation of atmospheric jets at the sea ice edge increases the wind speed parallel to the sea ice edge and results in the formation of a sea ice drift jet in agreement with an observed sea ice drift jet (Johannessen et al.). The increase in ice drift speed is dependent upon the angle between the ice edge and wind and results in up to a 40% increase in ice transport along the sea ice edge. The possibility of oceanic jet formation and the resultant effect upon the sea ice edge is less conclusive. Observations and climate model data of the polar oceans have been analyzed to show areas of likely atmospheric jet formation, with the Fram Strait being of particular interest.

scholarly journals Meridional Atmospheric Heat Transport Constrained by Energetics and Mediated by Large-Scale Diffusion

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 3655-3680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Atmospheric Heat

Abstract Meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) has been investigated through three broad perspectives: a dynamic perspective, linking AHT to the poleward flux of moist static energy (MSE) by atmospheric motions; an energetic perspective, linking AHT to energy input to the atmosphere by top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface heat fluxes; and a diffusive perspective, representing AHT in terms downgradient energy transport. It is shown here that the three perspectives provide complementary diagnostics of meridional AHT and its changes under greenhouse gas forcing. When combined, the energetic and diffusive perspectives offer prognostic insights: anomalous AHT is constrained to satisfy the net energetic demands of radiative forcing, radiative feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake; in turn, the meridional pattern of warming must adjust to produce those AHT changes, and does so approximately according to diffusion of anomalous MSE. The relationship between temperature and MSE exerts strong constraints on the warming pattern, favoring polar amplification. These conclusions are supported by use of a diffusive moist energy balance model (EBM) that accurately predicts zonal-mean warming and AHT changes within comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). A dry diffusive EBM predicts similar AHT changes in order to satisfy the same energetic constraints, but does so through tropically amplified warming—at odds with the GCMs’ polar-amplified warming pattern. The results suggest that polar-amplified warming is a near-inevitable consequence of a moist, diffusive atmosphere’s response to greenhouse gas forcing. In this view, atmospheric circulations must act to satisfy net AHT as constrained by energetics.

Ocean heat transport as a driver of sea ice extent in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake Aylmer ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The Mean

<p>Estimating long-term projections of sea ice extent is a key part of understanding the possible future climate state. This is hampered by uncertainties within and across comprehensive climate models, and the relative importance and nature of contributing factors are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the role of ocean and atmospheric forcing on sea ice on multidecadal time scales.</p><p>Pre-industrial control simulations of 19 CMIP6 models are analysed. Sea ice extent is negatively correlated with ocean heat transport (OHT), and positively correlated with atmospheric heat (moist-static energy) transport (AHT), in both hemispheres. In most models, increased OHT into the Arctic enhances surface fluxes in the Atlantic sector just south of the sea ice edge, which in turn increases the AHT convergence at higher latitudes. In the southern ocean, increased OHT directly increases the mean ocean–ice heat flux while AHT plays no direct role. Sensitivities of the sea ice cover to OHT are consistent with predictions from an idealised energy balance model (EBM), which is fitted to each model in turn. This shows that the sensitivities are constrained by atmospheric radiation parameters and the mean surface temperature response, with no explicit dependence on ocean parameters. These results are a step towards quantifying the effect of ocean biases on sea ice uncertainty in climate projections.</p>

scholarly journals The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Raphael ◽  
G. J. Marshall ◽  
J. Turner ◽  
R. L. Fogt ◽  
D. Schneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ross Sea ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is a climatological low pressure center that exerts considerable influence on the climate of West Antarctica. Its potential to explain important recent changes in Antarctic climate, for example, in temperature and sea ice extent, means that it has become the focus of an increasing number of studies. Here, the authors summarize the current understanding of the ASL, using reanalysis datasets to analyze recent variability and trends, as well as ice-core chemistry and climate model projections, to examine past and future changes in the ASL, respectively. The ASL has deepened in recent decades, affecting the climate through its influence on the regional meridional wind field, which controls the advection of moisture and heat into the continent. Deepening of the ASL in spring is consistent with observed West Antarctic warming and greater sea ice extent in the Ross Sea. Climate model simulations for recent decades indicate that this deepening is mediated by tropical variability while climate model projections through the twenty-first century suggest that the ASL will deepen in some seasons in response to greenhouse gas concentration increases.

scholarly journals Oceanic Overturning and Heat Transport: The Role of Background Diffusivity

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 701-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Hieronymus ◽  
Jonas Nycander ◽  
Johan Nilsson ◽  
Kristofer Döös ◽  
Robert Hallberg
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning

The role of oceanic background diapycnal diffusion for the equilibrium climate state is investigated in the global coupled climate model CM2G. Special emphasis is put on the oceanic meridional overturning and heat transport. Six runs with the model, differing only by their value of the background diffusivity, are run to steady state and the statistically steady integrations are compared. The diffusivity changes have large-scale impacts on many aspects of the climate system. Two examples are the volume-mean potential temperature, which increases by 3.6°C between the least and most diffusive runs, and the Antarctic sea ice extent, which decreases rapidly as the diffusivity increases. The overturning scaling with diffusivity is found to agree rather well with classical theoretical results for the upper but not for the lower cell. An alternative empirical scaling with the mixing energy is found to give good results for both cells. The oceanic meridional heat transport increases strongly with the diffusivity, an increase that can only partly be explained by increases in the meridional overturning. The increasing poleward oceanic heat transport is accompanied by a decrease in its atmospheric counterpart, which keeps the increase in the planetary energy transport small compared to that in the ocean.

Mechanisms for and Predictability of a Drastic Reduction in the Arctic Sea Ice: APPOSITE Data with Climate Model MIROC

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1361-1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ono ◽  
H. Tatebe ◽  
Y. Komuro
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Drastic Reduction ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The mechanisms for and predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) are investigated using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5.2. Here, a control (CTRL) with forcing fixed at year 2000 levels and perfect-model ensemble prediction (PRED) experiments are conducted. In CTRL, three (model years 51, 56, and 57) drastic SIE reductions occur during a 200-yr-long integration. In year 56, the sea ice moves offshore in association with a positive phase of the summer Arctic dipole anomaly (ADA) index and melts due to heat input through the increased open water area, and the SIE drastically decreases. This provides the preconditioning for the lowest SIE in year 57 when the Arctic Ocean interior is in a warm state and the spring sea ice volume has a large negative anomaly due to drastic ice reduction in the previous year. Although the ADA is one of the key mechanisms behind sea ice reduction, it does not always cause a drastic reduction. Our analysis suggests that wind direction favoring offshore ice motion is a more important factor for drastic ice reduction events. In years experiencing drastic ice reduction events, the September SIE can be skillfully predicted in PRED started from July, but not from April. This is because the forecast errors for the July sea level pressure and those for the sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness along the ice edge are large in PRED started from April.

scholarly journals How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie G. L. Rae ◽  
Alexander D. Todd ◽  
Edward W. Blockley ◽  
Jeff K. Ridley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Short Time

Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of Arctic summer cyclones in a climate model and in a reanalysis dataset. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from model simulations at two resolutions, and for the reanalysis, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. Correlations between characteristics of the cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent are investigated, and the influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling, on the correlations is explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors, and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses, especially when the focus is on one reanalysis, or output from one model, analysed with a single tracking variable for a short time period.

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