scholarly journals Meridional Atmospheric Heat Transport Constrained by Energetics and Mediated by Large-Scale Diffusion

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 3655-3680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Atmospheric Heat

Abstract Meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) has been investigated through three broad perspectives: a dynamic perspective, linking AHT to the poleward flux of moist static energy (MSE) by atmospheric motions; an energetic perspective, linking AHT to energy input to the atmosphere by top-of-atmosphere radiation and surface heat fluxes; and a diffusive perspective, representing AHT in terms downgradient energy transport. It is shown here that the three perspectives provide complementary diagnostics of meridional AHT and its changes under greenhouse gas forcing. When combined, the energetic and diffusive perspectives offer prognostic insights: anomalous AHT is constrained to satisfy the net energetic demands of radiative forcing, radiative feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake; in turn, the meridional pattern of warming must adjust to produce those AHT changes, and does so approximately according to diffusion of anomalous MSE. The relationship between temperature and MSE exerts strong constraints on the warming pattern, favoring polar amplification. These conclusions are supported by use of a diffusive moist energy balance model (EBM) that accurately predicts zonal-mean warming and AHT changes within comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs). A dry diffusive EBM predicts similar AHT changes in order to satisfy the same energetic constraints, but does so through tropically amplified warming—at odds with the GCMs’ polar-amplified warming pattern. The results suggest that polar-amplified warming is a near-inevitable consequence of a moist, diffusive atmosphere’s response to greenhouse gas forcing. In this view, atmospheric circulations must act to satisfy net AHT as constrained by energetics.

scholarly journals Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

2000 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 583-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Soon ◽  
E. Posmentier ◽  
S. Baliunas
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Radiative Properties ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Solar Uv

Abstract. We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions)

scholarly journals Impacts of Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Transports on Sea Ice Extent

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 7197-7215
Author(s):  
Jake Aylmer ◽  
David Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Feltham
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Transport Component ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Atmospheric Heat ◽  
The Impact

AbstractClimate-model biases in ocean heat transport (OHT) have been proposed as a major contributor to uncertainties in projections of sea ice extent. To better understand the impact of OHT on sea ice extent and compare it to that of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), an idealized, zonally averaged energy balance model (EBM) is developed. This is distinguished from previous EBM work by coupling a diffusive mixed layer OHT and a prescribed OHT contribution, with an atmospheric EBM and a reduced-complexity sea ice model. The ice-edge latitude is roughly linearly related to the convergence of each heat transport component, with different sensitivities depending on whether the ice cover is perennial or seasonal. In both regimes, Bjerknes compensation (BC) occurs such that the response of AHT partially offsets the impact of changing OHT. As a result, the effective sensitivity of ice-edge retreat to increasing OHT is only ~2/3 of the actual sensitivity (i.e., eliminating the BC effect). In the perennial regime, the sensitivity of the ice edge to OHT is about twice that to AHT, while in the seasonal regime they are similar. The ratio of sensitivities is, to leading order, determined by atmospheric longwave feedback parameters in the perennial regime. Here, there is no parameter range in which the ice edge is more sensitive to AHT than OHT.

Modeling Obliquity and CO2 Effects on Southern Hemisphere Climate during the Past 408 ka*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1863-1875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Tobias Friedrich ◽  
Oliver Elison Timm ◽  
Megumi O. Chikamoto ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Transient Model ◽  
Middle Troposphere ◽  
The Past ◽  
Southern Hemisphere Westerlies

Abstract The effect of obliquity and CO2 changes on Southern Hemispheric climate is studied with a series of numerical modeling experiments. Using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity Loch–VECODE–ECBilt–CLIO–Agism Model (LOVECLIM) and a coupled general circulation model [Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)], it is shown in time-slice simulations that phases of low obliquity enhance the meridional extratropical temperature gradient, increase the atmospheric baroclinicity, and intensify the lower and middle troposphere Southern Hemisphere westerlies and storm tracks. Furthermore, a transient model simulation is conducted with LOVECLIM that covers the greenhouse gas, ice sheet, and orbital forcing history of the past 408 ka. This simulation reproduces reconstructed glacial–interglacial variations in temperature and sea ice qualitatively well and shows that the meridional heat transport associated with the orbitally paced modulation of middle troposphere westerlies and storm tracks partly offsets the effects of the direct shortwave obliquity forcing over Antarctica, thereby reinforcing the high correlation between CO2 radiative forcing and Antarctic temperature. The overall timing of temperature changes in Antarctica is hence determined by a balance of shortwave obliquity forcing, atmospheric heat transport changes, and greenhouse gas forcing. A shorter 130-ka transient model experiment with constant CO2 concentrations further demonstrates that surface Southern Hemisphere westerlies are primarily modulated by the obliquity cycle rather than by the CO2 radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

scholarly journals The faint young Sun problem revisited with a 3-D climate–carbon model – Part 1

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Le Hir ◽  
Y. Teitler ◽  
F. Fluteau ◽  
Y. Donnadieu ◽  
P. Philippot
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Freezing Point ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Concentrations

Abstract. During the Archaean, the Sun's luminosity was 18 to 25% lower than the present day. One-dimensional radiative convective models (RCM) generally infer that high concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) are required to prevent the early Earth's surface temperature from dropping below the freezing point of liquid water and satisfying the faint young Sun paradox (FYSP, an Earth temperature at least as warm as today). Using a one-dimensional (1-D) model, it was proposed in 2010 that the association of a reduced albedo and less reflective clouds may have been responsible for the maintenance of a warm climate during the Archaean without requiring high concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2). More recently, 3-D climate simulations have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These studies were able to solve the FYSP through a large range of carbon dioxide concentrations, from 0.6 bar with an EMIC to several millibars with AGCMs. To better understand this wide range in pCO2, we investigated the early Earth climate using an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean. Our simulations include the ice-albedo feedback and specific Archaean climatic factors such as a faster Earth rotation rate, high atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and/or CH4, a reduced continental surface, a saltier ocean, and different cloudiness. We estimated full glaciation thresholds for the early Archaean and quantified positive radiative forcing required to solve the FYSP. We also demonstrated why RCM and EMIC tend to overestimate greenhouse gas concentrations required to avoid full glaciations or solve the FYSP. Carbon cycle–climate interplays and conditions for sustaining pCO2 will be discussed in a companion paper.

scholarly journals Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 9057-9081
Author(s):  
T. Kurtén ◽  
L. Zhou ◽  
R. Makkonen ◽  
J. Merikanto ◽  
P. Räisänen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Lifetime ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Rapid Amplification

Abstract. The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH4) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O3). These changes lead to a 70% increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18% decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the longwave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O3 and CH4-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases.

scholarly journals PLASIM-ENTSem: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 3349-3380 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Holden ◽  
N. R. Edwards ◽  
P. H. Garthwaite ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
F. Lunkeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS. Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, and the validation of the results against empirical data and higher-complexity models. We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

Diagnosing Cloud Feedbacks in General Circulation Models

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2602-2622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhu ◽  
James J. Hack ◽  
Jeffrey T. Kiehl
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Feedback ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Flux Change ◽  
Gfdl Model ◽  
The Individual

Abstract In this study, it is shown that the NCAR and GFDL GCMs exhibit a marked difference in climate sensitivity of clouds and radiative fluxes in response to doubled CO2 and ±2-K SST perturbations. The GFDL model predicted a substantial decrease in cloud amount and an increase in cloud condensate in the warmer climate, but produced a much weaker change in net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) than the NCAR model. Using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, the full-sky radiative flux change at the top of the atmosphere was successfully decomposed into individual components associated with the clear sky and different types of clouds. The authors specifically examined the cloud feedbacks due to the cloud amount and cloud condensate changes involving low, mid-, and high clouds between 60°S and 60°N. It was found that the NCAR and GFDL models predicted the same sign of individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate for all three types of clouds (low, mid, and high) despite the different cloud and radiation schemes used in the models. However, since the individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate generally have the opposite signs, the net cloud feedback is a subtle residual of all. Strong cancellations between individual cloud feedbacks may result in a weak net cloud feedback. This result is consistent with the findings of the previous studies, which used different approaches to diagnose cloud feedbacks. This study indicates that the proposed MLR approach provides an easy way to efficiently expose the similarity and discrepancy of individual cloud feedback processes between GCMs, which are hidden in the total cloud feedback measured by CRF. Most importantly, this method has the potential to be applied to satellite measurements. Thus, it may serve as a reliable and efficient method to investigate cloud feedback mechanisms on short-term scales by comparing simulations with available observations, which may provide a useful way to identify the cause for the wide spread of cloud feedbacks in GCMs.

scholarly journals The cloud–aerosol–radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8335-8364 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-Z. Liang ◽  
F. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
General Description ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Uncertainty Range

Abstract. A cloud–aerosol–radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternate parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry), aerosol properties (type, profile, optics), radiation transfers (solar, infrared), and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world's leading general circulation models (GCMs). CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes), reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations), and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses) the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol, and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud–aerosol–radiation interactions. For demonstration purposes, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol, and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.

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