scholarly journals Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-60
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Physical Mechanism ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Water Pathway ◽  
Atlantic Current

Abstract We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas in the period 1970-2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward, i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic, and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at lead time 1-2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatio-temporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents; the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatio-temporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions, could be through improved initialization, and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved.

Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential in the Northern North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene R. Langehaug ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Francois Counillon ◽  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Elizabeth Maroon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Band Pass Filter ◽  
Pass Filter ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Water Pathway

<p>In this study we assess to what extent seven different dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas in the time period 1970-2005. We focus in particular on the region where warm water flows poleward, i.e., the Atlantic water pathway, and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. To better understand why dynamical prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we confront them with a mechanism identified from observations – propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes – on different forecast lead times. This observed mechanism shows that warm and cold anomalies propagate along the Atlantic water pathway within a certain time frame. A key result from this study is that most models have difficulty representing this mechanism, resulting in an overall poor prediction skill after 1-2 years lead times (after applying a band-pass filter to focus on interannual-to-decadal time scales). There is a link, although not very strong, between predictive skill and the representation of the SST propagation. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, thus suggesting a great potential for improvement of dynamical climate predictions by resolving the causes for the misrepresentation of the oceanic link. Inter model differences in simulating surface velocities along the Atlantic water pathway suggest that realistic velocities are important to better circulate anomalies poleward, and hence, increase predictive skill on interannual-to-decadal time scales in the oceanic gateway to the Arctic.</p>

scholarly journals A Eurasian Ice-Sheet Study Using A Combined Ice-Sheet/ Ice-Shelf Numerical Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 345-345
Author(s):  
Dean R. Lindstrom
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

A numerical model which simultaneously computes grounded and ice-shelf flow was used to develop an equilibrium ice-sheet–ice-shelf system over Eurasia and the Arctic region. Present-day net accumulation rates and mean annual and July temperature values were used as base values for climatic variable specifications. The values were adjusted during the model run to account for changes in the ice-surface elevation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The model-determined equilibrium ice-sheet configuration was used as input for additional runs to observe what effect removing the Arctic ice shelf and increasing the CO2 concentration from glacial to present-day values has on the ice sheet.At equilibrium, an ice shelf formed over the Arctic Ocean and Greenland and Norwegian seas. Ice easily grounded over the Barents, Kara, East Siberian, and Laptev seas. The grounded ice-sheet profile differs in Europe from most glacial geological reconstructions because the North Atlantic Current effect was not removed from the climatic adjustments. As a result, ice did not extend over the North Sea and onto the British Isles because of the North Atlantic Current's warming effect. Also, the precipitation rate over Europe was too high because of the moisture source the North Atlantic Current carries, and the ice sheet expanded beyond the field-determined ice-sheet margins in the region south-east of Finland.Removing most of the Arctic region's ice-shelf cover had little effect on the grounded ice sheet unless it rested upon a deformable sediment layer. The ice sheet was able to collapse within 10 000 years, however, when the CO2 concentration was gradually increased toward present-day values using the Vostok ice core's CO2 record from the last 18 000 years. Initially, most mass loss resulted from surface melting. Once the thickness decreased enough over some regions for the grounded ice to become ungrounded, however, most mass loss resulted from the ice shelf rapidly transporting the ice to the ice-shelf front and discharging it to the sea.

scholarly journals A Eurasian Ice-Sheet Study Using A Combined Ice-Sheet/ Ice-Shelf Numerical Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 345
Author(s):  
Dean R. Lindstrom
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

A numerical model which simultaneously computes grounded and ice-shelf flow was used to develop an equilibrium ice-sheet–ice-shelf system over Eurasia and the Arctic region. Present-day net accumulation rates and mean annual and July temperature values were used as base values for climatic variable specifications. The values were adjusted during the model run to account for changes in the ice-surface elevation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The model-determined equilibrium ice-sheet configuration was used as input for additional runs to observe what effect removing the Arctic ice shelf and increasing the CO2 concentration from glacial to present-day values has on the ice sheet. At equilibrium, an ice shelf formed over the Arctic Ocean and Greenland and Norwegian seas. Ice easily grounded over the Barents, Kara, East Siberian, and Laptev seas. The grounded ice-sheet profile differs in Europe from most glacial geological reconstructions because the North Atlantic Current effect was not removed from the climatic adjustments. As a result, ice did not extend over the North Sea and onto the British Isles because of the North Atlantic Current's warming effect. Also, the precipitation rate over Europe was too high because of the moisture source the North Atlantic Current carries, and the ice sheet expanded beyond the field-determined ice-sheet margins in the region south-east of Finland. Removing most of the Arctic region's ice-shelf cover had little effect on the grounded ice sheet unless it rested upon a deformable sediment layer. The ice sheet was able to collapse within 10 000 years, however, when the CO2 concentration was gradually increased toward present-day values using the Vostok ice core's CO2 record from the last 18 000 years. Initially, most mass loss resulted from surface melting. Once the thickness decreased enough over some regions for the grounded ice to become ungrounded, however, most mass loss resulted from the ice shelf rapidly transporting the ice to the ice-shelf front and discharging it to the sea.

scholarly journals Change in the North Atlantic circulation associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 1639-1651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria M. Martin-Garcia ◽  
Francisco J. Sierro ◽  
José A. Flores ◽  
Fátima Abrantes
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Oceanic Fronts ◽  
Surface Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The southwestern Iberian margin is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of North Atlantic currents and to the position of oceanic fronts. In this work, the evolution of oceanographic parameters from 812 to 530 ka (MIS20–MIS14) is studied based on the analysis of planktonic foraminifer assemblages from site IODP-U1385 (37∘34.285′ N, 10∘7.562′ W; 2585 m b.s.l.). By comparing the obtained results with published records from other North Atlantic sites between 41 and 55∘ N, basin-wide paleoceanographic conditions are reconstructed. Variations of assemblages dwelling in different water masses indicate a major change in the general North Atlantic circulation during MIS16, coinciding with the definite establishment of the 100 ky cyclicity associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition. At the surface, this change consisted in the redistribution of water masses, with the subsequent thermal variation, and occurred linked to the northwestward migration of the Arctic Front (AF), and the increase in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation with respect to previous glacials. During glacials prior to MIS16, the NADW formation was very weak, which drastically slowed down the surface circulation; the AF was at a southerly position and the North Atlantic Current (NAC) diverted southeastwards, developing steep south–north, and east–west, thermal gradients and blocking the arrival of warm water, with associated moisture, to high latitudes. During MIS16, the increase in the meridional overturning circulation, in combination with the northwestward AF shift, allowed the arrival of the NAC to subpolar latitudes, multiplying the moisture availability for ice-sheet growth, which could have worked as a positive feedback to prolong the glacials towards 100 ky cycles.

scholarly journals Observed variability of the North Atlantic Current in the Rockall Trough from four years of mooring measurements.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loïc Houpert ◽  
Stuart A. Cunningham ◽  
Neil J Fraser ◽  
Clare Johnson ◽  
N. Penny Holliday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Rockall Trough ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

scholarly journals The recent AMOC variability in the Subpolar Gyre: results across the OVIDE section

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascale Lherminier ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Fiz F. Perez ◽  
Marcos Fontela
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Lower Limb ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Subarctic Front ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

<p><span>According to the subpolar AMOC index built from ARGO and altimetry, the AMOC amplitude across the OVIDE section (from Greenland to Portugal) was similar to that of the mid-1990s between 2014 and 2017, i.e. 4-5 Sv above the level of the 2000s. It then returned to average values in 2018. The same index computed independently from the biennial summer cruises over 2002-2018 confirms this statement. Interestingly, despite the concomitant cold and fresh anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic, the heat flux across OVIDE remains correlated with the AMOC amplitude. This can be explained by the paths taken by the North Atlantic Current and the transport anomalies in the subarctic front. In 2014, the OVIDE section was complemented by a section from Greenland to Newfoundland (GA01), showing how the water of the lower limb of the AMOC was densified by deep convection in the Labrador Sea. The spatial patterns of volume, heat, salt and oxygen transport anomalies after 2014 will be discussed at the light of the 2000s average.</span></p>

scholarly journals LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF CURRENTS IN THE SUBARCTIC FRONT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-265
Author(s):  
A. K. Ambrosimov ◽  
N. A. Diansky ◽  
A. A. Kluvitkin ◽  
V. A. Melnikov
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Reykjanes Ridge ◽  
The North ◽  
Subarctic Front ◽  
Average Water ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

Based on time series of near-bottom current velocities and temperatures obtained in the period June, 2016 to July, 2017, at three points in the Atlantic Subarctic Front, along with the use of multi-year (since 1993 up to now) satellite ocean surface sounding data, multi-scale fluctuations of ocean surface and near-bottom flows over the western and eastern flanks of the Reykjanes ridge, as well as near Hatton Rise, on the Rokoll plateau, are studied. Hydrological profiles were carried out from the ocean surface to the bottom with readings every 10 m, when setting and retrieving the buoy stations. Using data from the Bank of hydrological stations (WOD13), SST satellite arrays (Pathfinder), long-term sea level and geostrophic velocities time series (AVISO), and bottom topography (model ETOPO-1), features of longterm cyclical fluctuations of SST, sea level, geostrophic currents on the ocean surface were defined in the sub-polar North Atlantic. It is shown that, in accordance with the large-scale thermohaline structure of the Subarctic front, two branches of the North Atlantic Current are detected on the ocean surface.One is directed from the Hatton towards the Icelandic-Faroese Rise, and the other – alomg the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge toward Iceland. For the first branch, which is the main continuation of the North Atlantic Current, the average (for 25 years) water drift at a speed of 9.1±0.1 cm/s is determined to the northeast. The second branch, which forms the eastern part of the Subarctic cyclonic gyre, has the average water drift at a speed of 4.0±0.1 cm/s is directed north-northeast, along the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge. In the intermediate waters of the frontal zone, an average water flow is observed at a speed of 2.7±0.1 cm/s to the north-northeast, along the eastern slope of the Reykjanes ridge.Due to the multy-scale components of the total variability, the average kinetic energy densities(KED) of total currents (109, 45, 97, (±3) erg/cm3, at station points from east to west) are much greater than the mean drift KED. The near-bottom flows on the Reykjanes ridge flanks are opposite to the direction of the North Atlantic Current. Outside the Subarctic gyre, the direction of average transport is maintained from the ocean surface to the bottom. The average (per year) KED of near-bottom currents are 31, 143, 27 (±3 erg/cm3), for three stations from east to west, respectively. In the intermediate waters of the frontal zone, above the eastern slope of the Reykjanes Ridge, there is a powerful reverse (relative to the North Atlantic Current) near-bottom water flow to the south-west, with a high average speed of ~ 15 cm/s. The KED of the currents during the year varies widely from zero to ~ 600 erg/cm3. The overall variability is due to cyclical variations and intermittency (“flashes”) of currents. Perennial cycles, seasonal variations, synoptic fluctuations with periods in the range of 30–300 days, as well as inertial oscillations and semi-diurnal tidal waves are distinguished. The intermittency of oscillations is partly due to changes in low-frequency flows, which can lead to a dopler frequency shift in the cyclic components of the spectrum. The amplitude of temperature fluctuations in the bottom layer for the year was (0.07–0.10) ± 0.01°C by the standard deviation. The seasonal changes of the bottom temperature are not detected. However, a linear trend with a warming of ~ (0.10–0.15) ± 0.01°С per year is noticeable.

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