scholarly journals Recent Changes in United States Extreme 3-Day Precipitation Using the R-CAT Scale

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1207-1221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam A. Lamjiri ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Michael D. Dettinger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Total ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractExtraordinary precipitation events have impacted the United States recently, including Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018), with 3-day precipitation totals larger than any others reported in the United States during the past 70 years. The rainfall category (R-CAT) scaling method is used here to document extreme precipitation events and test for trends nationally. The R-CAT scale uses thresholds of 3-day precipitation total in 100-mm increments (starting with 200 mm) that do not vary temporally or geographically, allowing for simple, intuitive comparisons of extremes over space and time. The paper that introduced the scale only required levels 1–4 to represent historical extremes, finding that R-CATs 3–4 strike the conterminous United States about as frequently as EF 4–5 tornadoes or category 3–5 hurricanes. Remarkably, Florence and Harvey require extending the scale to R-CAT 7 and 9, respectively. Trend analyses of annual maximum 3-day totals (1950–2019) here identify significant increases in the eastern United States, along with declines in Northern California and Oregon. Consistent with these results, R-CAT storms have been more frequent in the eastern, and less frequent in western, United States during the past decade compared to 1950–2008. Tropical storms dominate R-CAT events along the southeastern coast and East Coast with surprising contributions from atmospheric rivers, while atmospheric rivers completely dominate along the West Coast.

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

scholarly journals ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Philip J. Pegion
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The West ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50–1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The results are compared with those from an ensemble of nine atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST for the same time period. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the daily precipitation fields together with compositing techniques are used to identify and characterize the weather systems that dominate the winter precipitation variability. The time series of the principal components (PCs) associated with the leading EOFs are analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions to quantify the impact of ENSO on the intensity of extreme precipitation events. The six leading EOFs of the observations are associated with major winter storm systems and account for more than 50% of the daily precipitation variability along the West Coast and over much of the eastern part of the country. Two of the leading EOFs (designated GC for Gulf Coast and EC for East Coast) together represent cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally move and/or redevelop along the East Coast producing large amounts of precipitation over much of the southern and eastern United States. Three of the leading EOFs represent storms that hit different sections of the West Coast (designated SW for Southwest coast, WC for the central West Coast, and NW for northwest coast), while another represents storms that affect the Midwest (designated by MW). The winter maxima of several of the leading PCs are significantly impacted by ENSO such that extreme GC, EC, and SW storms that occur on average only once every 20 years (20-yr storms) would occur on average in half that time under sustained El Niño conditions. In contrast, under La Niña conditions, 20-yr GC and EC storms would occur on average about once in 30 years, while there is little impact of La Niña on the intensity of the SW storms. The leading EOFs from the model simulations and their connections to ENSO are for the most part quite realistic. The model, in particular, does very well in simulating the impact of ENSO on the intensity of EC and GC storms. The main model discrepancies are the lack of SW storms and an overall underestimate of the daily precipitation variance.

A comparison of earthquake damage areas as a function of magnitude across the United States

1993 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 1064-1080 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Bollinger ◽  
M. C. Chapman ◽  
M. S. Sibol
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The West

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between earthquake magnitude and the size of damage areas in the eastern and western United States. To quantify damage area as a function of moment magnitude (M), 149 MMI VI and VII areas for 109 earthquakes (88 in the western United States, 21 in the eastern United States and Canada) were measured. Regression of isoseismal areas versus M indicated that areas in the East were larger than those in the West, at both intensity levels, by an average 5 × in the M 4.5 to 7.5 range. In terms of radii for circles of equivalent area, these results indicate that damaging ground motion from shocks of the same magnitude extend 2 × the epicentral distance in eastern North America compared to the West. To determine source and site parameters consistent with the above results, response spectral levels for eastern North America were stochastically simulated and compared with response spectral ordinates derived from recorded strong ground motion data in the western United States. Stress-drop values of 200 bars, combined with a surficial 2-km-thick low velocity “sedimentary” layer over rock basement, produced results that are compatible with the intensity observations, i.e., similar response spectral levels in the east at approximately twice their epicentral distance in the western U.S. distance. These results suggest that ground motion modeling in eastern North America may need to incorporate source and site parameters different from those presently in general use. The results are also of importance to eastern U.S. hazard assessments as they require allowance for the larger damage areas in preparedness and mitigation programs.

scholarly journals Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 693-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Ashouri ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian ◽  
Kuo-Lin Hsu ◽  
Michael G. Bosilovich ◽  
Jaechoul Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Product ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract This study evaluates the performance of NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979–2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

scholarly journals Contrasting Patterns of Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Armillaria mellea sensu stricto in the Eastern and Western United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (7) ◽  
pp. 708-718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kendra Baumgartner ◽  
Renaud Travadon ◽  
Johann Bruhn ◽  
Sarah E. Bergemann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Structure ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sensu Stricto ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Armillaria Mellea ◽  
Genetic Pools

Armillaria mellea infects hundreds of plant species in natural and managed ecosystems throughout the Northern hemisphere. Previously reported nuclear genetic divergence between eastern and western U.S. isolates is consistent with the disjunct range of A. mellea in North America, which is restricted mainly to both coasts of the United States. We investigated patterns of population structure and genetic diversity of the eastern (northern and southern Appalachians, Ozarks, and western Great Lakes) and western (Berkeley, Los Angeles, St. Helena, and San Jose, CA) regions of the United States. In total, 156 diploid isolates were genotyped using 12 microsatellite loci. Absence of genetic differentiation within either eastern subpopulations (θST = –0.002, P = 0.5 ) or western subpopulations (θST = 0.004, P = 0.3 ) suggests that spore dispersal within each region is sufficient to prevent geographic differentiation. In contrast to the western United States, our finding of more than one genetic cluster of isolates within the eastern United States (K = 3), revealed by Bayesian assignment of multilocus genotypes in STRUCTURE and confirmed by genetic multivariate analyses, suggests that eastern subpopulations are derived from multiple founder sources. The existence of amplifiable and nonamplifiable loci and contrasting patterns of genetic diversity between the two regions demonstrate that there are two geographically isolated, divergent genetic pools of A. mellea in the United States.

Evaluation of Historical and Future Cool Season Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Western Atlantic Storm Track Using CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Lombardo ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Zhenhai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract This study analyzed the contribution of cyclones to projected changes in cool season (1 November–31 March) precipitation over the eastern United States and western North Atlantic Ocean. First, global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation analyses for the period 1979–2004. The CMIP5 ensemble mean realistically reproduced the historical distribution of regional precipitation with no discernable effect because of model spatial resolution. Subsequently, the projected changes in precipitation on cyclone and noncyclone days under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario were quantified. While precipitation on both types of days was projected to increase, the increase on noncyclone days (23%) was greater than the increase on cyclone days (12%). The increase in precipitation on cyclone days occurred despite a decrease in the number of cyclone days. This increase can be attributed primarily to a shift toward more frequent extreme precipitation events coupled with a decline in light precipitation events.

scholarly journals Redescription of Arundel formation Ornithomimosaur material and a reinterpretation of Nedcolbertia justinhofmanni as an “Ostrich Dinosaur”: Biogeographic implications

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chase Doran Brownstein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Early Cretaceous ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
New Taxon ◽  
Western North America ◽  
The Past

The fossil record of dinosaurs from the Early Cretaceous of eastern North America is scant, and only a few sediments to the east of the continent are fossiliferous. Among them is the Arundel Formation of the east coast of the United States, which has produced among the best dinosaur faunas known from the Early Cretaceous of eastern North America. The diverse dinosaur fauna of this formation has been thoroughly discussed previously, but few of the dinosaur species originally described from the Arundel are still regarded as valid genera. Much of the Arundel material is in need of review and redescription. Among the fossils of dinosaurs from this formation are those referred to ornithomimosaurs. Here, I redescribe ornithomimosaur remains from the Arundel Formation which may warrant the naming of a new taxon of dinosaur. These remains provide key information on the theropods of the Early Cretaceous of Eastern North America. The description of the Arundel material herein along with recent discoveries of basal ornithomimosaurs in the past 15 years has allowed for comparisons with the coelurosaur Nedcolbertia justinhofmanni, suggesting the latter animal was a basal ornithomimosaurian dinosaur rather than a “generalized” coelurosaur. Comparisons between the Arundel ornithomimosaur and similar southeast Asian ornithomimosaurian material as well as ornithomimosaur remains from western North America suggest that a lineage of ornithomimosaurs with a metatarsal condition intermediate between that of basal and derived ornithomimosaurs was present through southeast Asia into North America, in turn suggesting that such animals coexisted with genera having a more primitive metatarsal morphology as seen in N. justinhofmanni.

scholarly journals Prolonged Dry Episodes over the Conterminous United States: New Tendencies Emerging during the Last 40 Years

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1850-1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract A disproportionate increase in precipitation coming from intense rain events, in the situation of general warming (thus, an extension of the vegetation period with intensive transpiration), and an insignificant change in total precipitation could lead to an increase in the frequency of a potentially serious type of extreme events: prolonged periods without precipitation (even when the mean seasonal rainfall totals increase). This paper investigates whether this development is already occurring during the past several decades over the conterminous United States, for the same period when changes in frequency of intense precipitation events are being observed. Lengthy strings of “dry” days without sizeable (>1.0 mm) precipitation were assessed only during the warm season (defined as a period when mean daily temperature is above the 5°C threshold) when water is intensively used for transpiration and prolonged periods without sizable rainfall represent a hazard for terrestrial ecosystem’s health and agriculture. During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (1 month or longer in the eastern United States and 2 months or longer in the southwestern United States) has significantly increased. As a consequence the return period of 1-month-long dry episodes over the eastern United States has reduced more than twofold from 15 to 6–7 yr. The longer average duration of dry episodes has occurred during a relatively wet period across the country but is not observed over the northwestern United States.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document