scholarly journals Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Andrea M. Molod
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Forecast Bias ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Independent Observations ◽  
Moisture State ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization

AbstractSoil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Comparison of Noah and Pleim–Xiu Land Surface Models in MM5 Using GÖTE2001 Data: Spatial and Temporal Variations in Near-Surface Air Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1587-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
J-F. Miao ◽  
D. Chen ◽  
K. Borne
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization ◽  
Evident Difference

Abstract In this study, the performance of two advanced land surface models (LSMs; Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM) coupled with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), version 3.7.2, in simulating the near-surface air temperature in the greater Göteborg area in Sweden is evaluated and compared using the GÖTE2001 field campaign data. Further, the effects of different planetary boundary layer schemes [Eta and Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBLs] for Noah LSM and soil moisture initialization approaches for Pleim–Xiu LSM are investigated. The investigation focuses on the evaluation and comparison of diurnal cycle intensity and maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the urban heat island during the daytime and nighttime under the clear-sky and cloudy/rainy weather conditions for different experimental schemes. The results indicate that 1) there is an evident difference between Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM in simulating the near-surface air temperature, especially in the modeled urban heat island; 2) there is no evident difference in the model performance between the Eta PBL and MRF PBL coupled with the Noah LSM; and 3) soil moisture initialization is of crucial importance for model performance in the Pleim–Xiu LSM. In addition, owing to the recent release of MM5, version 3.7.3, some experiments done with version 3.7.2 were repeated to reveal the effects of the modifications in the Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM. The modification to longwave radiation parameterizations in Noah LSM significantly improves model performance while the adjustment of emissivity, one of the vegetation properties, affects Pleim–Xiu LSM performance to a larger extent. The study suggests that improvements both in Noah LSM physics and in Pleim–Xiu LSM initialization of soil moisture and parameterization of vegetation properties are important.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1695-1709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunkyo Seo ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Jee-Hoon Jeong ◽  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization

scholarly journals Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 1705-1722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Sarith P. Mahanama
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization ◽  
Eastern Half

AbstractPast studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance–based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecast” evapotranspiration (ET) values at 16–30-day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecast by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecast meteorological conditions in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental United States) of the T2M anomaly values produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16–30-day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about one-half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system.

Aerosol Effects on Temperature Forecast in the COSMO-Ru Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
A. A. Poliukhov ◽  
◽  
D. V. Blinov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
European Part ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
European Part Of Russia ◽  
Simulated Surface ◽  
Aerosol Effects ◽  
Sky Conditions

Aerosol effects on the forecast of surface temperature, as well as temperature at the levels of 850 and 500 hPa over Europe and the European part of Russia are studied using various aerosol climatologies: Tanre, Tegen, and MACv2. The numerical experiments with the COSMO-Ru model are performed for the central months of the seasons (January, April, July, and October) in 2017. It is found that a change in the simulated surface air temperature over land can reach 1C when using Tegen and MACv2 data as compared to Tanre. At 850 and 500 hPa levels, the changes do not exceed 0.4C. At the same time, it is shown that a decrease in the root-mean-square error of 2-m air temperature forecast at individual stations reaches 0.5C when using Tegen and MACv2 data and 1C for clear-sky conditions in Moscow.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulations of Effects of Soil Moisture and Modification by Mountains over New Zealand in Summer

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
pp. 494-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yang ◽  
Michael Uddstrom ◽  
Mike Revell ◽  
Phil Andrews ◽  
Hilary Oliver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Soil Moisture Content ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Lower Sensitivity ◽  
The South

Abstract Historically most soil moisture–land surface impact studies have focused on continents because of the important forecasting and climate implications involved. For a relatively small isolated mountainous landmass in the ocean such as New Zealand, these impacts have received less attention. This paper addresses some of these issues for New Zealand through numerical experiments with a regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model atmospheric model. Two pairs of idealized simulations with only contrasting dry or wet initial soil moisture over a 6-day period in January 2004 were conducted, with one pair using realistic terrain and the other pair flat terrain. For the mean of the 6 days, the differences in the simulated surface air temperature between the dry and moist cases were 3–5 K on the leeside slopes and 1–2 K on the windward slopes and the central leeside coastal region of the South Island in the afternoon. This quite nonuniform response in surface air temperature to a uniformly distributed soil moisture content and soil type is mainly attributed to modification of the effects of soil moisture by mountains through two different processes: 1) spatial variation in cloud coverage across the mountains ranges leading to more shortwave radiation at ground surface on the leeside slope than the windward slope, and 2) the presence of a dynamically and thermally induced onshore flow on the leeside coast bringing in air with a lower sensitivity to soil moisture. The response of local winds to soil moisture content is through direct or indirect effects. The direct effect is due to the thermal contrast between land and sea/land shown for the leeside solenoidal circulations, and the indirect effect is through the weakening of the upstream blocking of the South Island for dryer soils shown by the weakening and onshore shift of the upstream deceleration and forced ascent of incoming airflow.

scholarly journals Soil Moisture Variability in India: Relationship of Land Surface–Atmosphere Fields Using Maximum Covariance Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishore Pangaluru ◽  
Isabella Velicogna ◽  
Geruo A ◽  
Yara Mohajerani ◽  
Enrico Ciracì ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Covariance Analysis ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Maximum Covariance Analysis ◽  
Surface Atmosphere

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of the soil moisture in India using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) gridded datasets from June 2002 to April 2017. Significant relationships between soil moisture and different land surface–atmosphere fields (Precipitation, surface air temperature, total cloud cover, and total water storage) were studied, using maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to extract dominant interactions that maximize the covariance between two fields. The first leading mode of MCA explained 56%, 87%, 81%, and 79% of the squared covariance function (SCF) between soil moisture with precipitation (PR), surface air temperature (TEM), total cloud count (TCC), and total water storage (TWS), respectively, with correlation coefficients of 0.65, −0.72, 0.71, and 0.62. Furthermore, the covariance analysis of total water storage showed contrasting patterns with soil moisture, especially over northwest, northeast, and west coast regions. In addition, the spatial distribution of seasonal and annual trends of soil moisture in India was estimated using a robust regression technique for the very first time. For most regions in India, significant positive trends were noticed in all seasons. Meanwhile, a small negative trend was observed over southern India. The monthly mean value of AMSR soil moisture trend revealed a significant positive trend, at about 0.0158 cm3/cm3 per decade during the period ranging from 2002 to 2017.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Indo-Pacific Convection Oscillation and Summer Surface Air Temperature in Southern Asia

SOLA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (0) ◽  
pp. 199-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayu Zheng ◽  
Yanjie Li ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Jiaqing Xue ◽  
Yipeng Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Asia ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Specifics of soil temperature under winter wheat canopy

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Krčmáŕová ◽  
Hana Stredová ◽  
Radovan Pokorný ◽  
Tomáš Stdŕeda
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Experimental Plot ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Soil Temperatures

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the course of soil temperature under the winter wheat canopy and to determine relationships between soil temperature, air temperature and partly soil moisture. In addition, the aim was to describe the dependence by means of regression equations usable for phytopathological prediction models, crop development, and yield models. The measurement of soil temperatures was performed at the experimental field station ˇZabˇcice (Europe, the Czech Republic, South Moravia). The soil in the first experimental plot is Gleyic Fluvisol with 49-58% of the content particles measuring < 0.01 mm, in the second experimental plot, the soil is Haplic Chernozem with 31-32% of the content particles measuring < 0.01 mm. The course of soil temperature and its specifics were determined under winter wheat canopy during the main growth season in the course of three years. Automatic soil temperature sensors were positioned at three depths (0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m under soil surface), air temperature sensor in 0.05 m above soil surface. Results of the correlation analysis showed that the best interrelationships between these two variables were achieved after a 3-hour delay for the soil temperature at 0.05 m, 5-hour delay for 0.10 m, and 8-hour delay for 0.20 m. After the time correction, the determination coefficient reached values from 0.75 to 0.89 for the depth of 0.05 m, 0.61 to 0.82 for the depth of 0.10 m, and 0.33 to 0.70 for the depth of 0.20 m. When using multiple regression with quadratic spacing (modeling hourly soil temperature based on the hourly near surface air temperature and hourly soil moisture in the 0.10-0.40 m profile), the difference between the measured and the model soil temperatures at 0.05 m was −2.16 to 2.37 ◦ C. The regression equation paired with alternative agrometeorological instruments enables relatively accurate modeling of soil temperatures (R2 = 0.93).

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