scholarly journals The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on African Easterly Waves and Downstream Tropical Cyclogenesis

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 2704-2722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Chris D. Thorncroft ◽  
Paul E. Roundy
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Waves

The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over tropical Africa and Atlantic is explored during the Northern Hemisphere summer months. The MJO is assessed by using real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. These indices divide the active convective signal of the MJO into 8 phases. Convection associated with the MJO is enhanced over tropical Africa during RMM phases 8, 1, and 2. Convection becomes suppressed over tropical Africa during the subsequent RMM phases (phases 3–7). African convective signals are associated with westward-propagating equatorial Rossby waves. The MJO modulates African easterly wave (AEW) activity. AEW activity is locally enhanced during RMM phases 1–3 and suppressed during RMM phases 6–8. Enhanced AEW activity occurs during periods of enhanced convection over tropical Africa, consistent with stronger or more frequent triggering of AEWs as well as more growth associated with latent heat release. Enhanced AEW activity occurs during the low-level westerly wind phase of the MJO, which increases the cyclonic shear on the equatorward side of the AEJ, increasing its instability. Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis frequency varies coherently with the MJO. RMM phases 1–3 show the greatest frequency of tropical cyclogenesis events whereas phases 7 and 8 show the least. RMM phase 2 is also the most likely phase to be associated with a train of three or more tropical cyclones over the tropical Atlantic. This observed evolution of tropical cyclogenesis frequency varies coherently with variations in AEW activity and the large-scale environment.

Favorable monsoon environment over eastern Africa for subsequent tropical cyclogenesis of African easterly waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio ◽  
Alan Brammer ◽  
Jenni L. Evans ◽  
George S. Young ◽  
Zachary L. Moon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Vertically Aligned ◽  
Somali Jet

AbstractEastern Africa is a common region of African easterly wave (AEW) onset and AEW early-life. How the large-scale environment over east Africa relates to the likelihood of an AEW subsequently undergoing tropical cyclogenesis in a climatology has not been documented. This study addresses the following hypothesis: AEWs that undergo tropical cyclogenesis (i.e., developing AEWs) initiate and propagate under a more favorable monsoon large-scale environment over eastern Africa when compared to non-developing AEWs. Using a 21-year August-to-September (1990-2010) climatology of AEWs, differences in the large-scale environment between developers and non-developers are identified and are propose to be used as key predictors of subsequent tropical cyclone formation and could informtropical cyclogenesis prediction. TC precursors when compared to non-developing AEWs experience: an anomalously active West African Monsoon, stronger northerly flow, more intense zonal Somali jet, anomalous convergence over the Marrah Mountains (region of AEW forcing), and a more intense and elongated African easterly jet (AEJ). These large-scale conditions are linked to near-trough attributes of developing AEWs which favor more moisture ingestion, vertically aligned circulation, a stronger initial 850-hPa vortex, deeper wave pouch, and arguably more AEW and Mesoscale convective systems interactions. AEWs that initiate over eastern Africa and cross the west coast of Africa are more likely to undergo tropical cyclogenesis than those initiating over central or west Africa. Developing AEWs are more likely to be southern-track AEWs than non-developing AEWs.

scholarly journals Intermittent African Easterly Wave Activity in a Dry Atmospheric Model: Influence of the Extratropics

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (20) ◽  
pp. 5378-5396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Leroux ◽  
Nicholas M. J. Hall ◽  
George N. Kiladis
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
African Easterly Jet ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
Easterly Wave

Abstract A dynamical model is constructed of the northern summertime global circulation, maintained by empirically derived forcing, based on the same dynamical code that has recently been used to study African easterly waves (AEWs) as convectively triggered perturbations (Thorncroft et al.; Leroux and Hall). In the configuration used here, the model faithfully simulates the observed mean distributions of jets and transient disturbances, and explicitly represents the interactions between them. This simple GCM is used to investigate the origin and intraseasonal intermittency of AEWs in an artificially dry (no convection) context. A long integration of the model produces a summertime climatology that includes a realistic African easterly jet and westward-propagating 3–5-day disturbances over West Africa. These simulated waves display intraseasonal intermittency as the observed AEWs also do. Further experiments designed to discern the source of this intermittency in the model show that the simulated waves are mainly triggered by dynamical precursors coming from the North Atlantic storm track. The model is at least as sensitive to this remote influence as it is to local triggering by convective heating.

scholarly journals Investigating the Factors That Contribute to African Easterly Wave Intensity Forecast Uncertainty in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (5) ◽  
pp. 1679-1698
Author(s):  
Travis J. Elless ◽  
Ryan D. Torn
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Diabatic Processes

Abstract Although there have been numerous studies documenting the processes/environments that lead to the intensification of African easterly waves (AEWs), only a few of these studies investigated the effect of those processes or the environment on the predictability of AEWs. Here, the large-scale modulation of AEW intensity predictability is evaluated using the 51-member ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) during an active AEW period (July–September 2011–13). Forecasts are stratified based on the 72-h AEW intensity standard deviation (SD) to evaluate hypotheses for how different processes contribute to large forecast SD. While large and small SD forecasts are associated with similar baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions, forecasts with large SD are characterized by higher relative humidity values downstream of the AEW trough. These areas of higher humidity are also associated with higher precipitation and precipitation SD, suggesting that uncertainty associated with diabatic processes could be linked with large AEW intensity SD. Although water vapor is a strong function of longitude and phase of convectively coupled equatorial waves, the cases with large and small SD are characterized by similar longitude and wave phase, suggesting that AEWs occurring in certain locations or convectively coupled equatorial wave phases are not more or less predictable.

scholarly journals Observations of Seven African Easterly Waves in the East Atlantic during 2006

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward J. Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Wind Structure ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Global Data Assimilation System ◽  
Low Amplitude ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) experiment and its downstream NASA extension, NAMMA, provide an unprecedented detailed look at the vertical structure of consecutive African easterly waves. During August and September 2006, seven easterly waves passed through the NAMMA domain: two waves developed into Tropical Cyclones Debby and Helene, two waves did not develop, and three waves were questionable in their role in the development of Ernesto, Florence, and Gordon. NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) analyses are used to describe the track of both the vorticity maxima and midlevel wave trough associated with each of the seven easterly waves. Dropsonde data from NAMMA research flights are used to describe the observed wind structure and as a tool to evaluate the accuracy of the GDAS to resolve the structure of the wave. Finally, satellite data are used to identify the relationship between convection and the organization of the wind structure. Results support a necessary distinction between the large-scale easterly wave trough and smaller-scale vorticity centers within the wave. An important wave-to-wave variability is observed: for NAMMA waves, those waves that have a characteristically high-amplitude wave trough and well-defined low-level circulations (well organized) may contain less rainfall, do not necessarily develop, and are well resolved in the analysis, whereas low-amplitude (weakly organized) NAMMA waves may have stronger vorticity centers and large persistent raining areas and may be more likely to develop, but are not well resolved in the analysis.

scholarly journals Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Three-Way Interaction between an African Easterly Wave, Diurnally Varying Convection, and a Convectively Coupled Atmospheric Kelvin Wave

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1108-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Christopher D. Thorncroft ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave

This paper explores a three-way interaction between an African easterly wave (AEW), the diurnal cycle of convection over the Guinea Highlands (GHs), and a convectively coupled atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW). These interactions resulted in the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby over the eastern tropical Atlantic during late August 2006. The diurnal cycle of convection downstream of the GHs during the month of August is explored. Convection associated with the coherent diurnal cycle is observed off the coast of West Africa during the morning. Later, convection initiates over and downstream of the GHs during the afternoon. These convective features were pronounced during the passage of the pre-Debby AEW. The superposition between the convectively active phase of a strong CCKW and the pre-Debby AEW occurred shortly after merging with the diurnally varying convection downstream of the GHs. The CCKW–AEW interaction preceded tropical cyclogenesis by 18 h. The CCKW provided a favorable environment for deep convection. An analysis of high-amplitude CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic and West Africa during the Northern Hemisphere boreal summer (1979–2009) highlights a robust relationship between CCKWs and the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclogenesis is found to be less frequent immediately prior to the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, more frequent during the passage, and most frequent just after the passage.

scholarly journals Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Global Survey

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 3996-4011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Wave Passage

Abstract Convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves are among the most prominent sources of synoptic-scale rainfall variability in the tropics, but large uncertainties surround their role in tropical cyclogenesis. This study identifies the modulation of tropical cyclones relative to the passage of a Kelvin wave’s peak rainfall (i.e., its crest) in each basin. Tropical cyclogenesis is generally inhibited for 3 days before the crest and enhanced for 3 days afterward. Composites of storms forming in the most favorable lags illustrate the dynamical impacts of the waves. In most basins, the tropical cyclone actually forms during the convectively suppressed phase of the wave. The 850-hPa equatorial westerly anomalies provide the cyclonic vorticity for the nascent storm, and 200-hPa easterly anomalies enhance the outflow. The wind anomalies persist at both levels longer than the Kelvin wave’s period and are often related to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The onset of these wind anomalies occurs with the Kelvin wave passage, while the MJO apparently establishes their duration. Many of the composites also show evidence of an easterly wave from which the tropical cyclone develops. The composite easterly wave amplifies or even initiates within the Kelvin wave crest. These results show the importance of Kelvin waves interacting with the MJO and easterly waves during tropical cyclogenesis. Given that Kelvin waves often circumnavigate the globe, these results show promise for long-range forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in all basins.

Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves

2010 ◽  
Vol 36 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1379-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula A. Agudelo ◽  
Carlos D. Hoyos ◽  
Judith A. Curry ◽  
Peter J. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Waves

scholarly journals The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Convection over Tropical Africa and the East Atlantic

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew A. Janiga ◽  
Chris D. Thorncroft
Keyword(s):  
Convective System ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Conditional Instability ◽  
Rain Rates

Abstract Using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the modulation of convection by African easterly waves (AEWs) is investigated over regions of the east Atlantic and tropical Africa. To explain the modulation of convection, the large-scale environment (lift, moisture, conditional instability, and shear) is also examined as a function of AEW phase in each region. Over semiarid portions of tropical Africa, unconditional rain rates are greatest in the northerly phase of AEWs due to the strong adiabatic forcing for ascent. Along the Guinea Coast, the western coast of Africa, and over the east Atlantic—where forcing for ascent is weaker—rainfall is shifted toward the trough where the air is moist. Significant contrasts in the characteristics of convection as a function of AEW phase—comparable in magnitude to regional contrasts—are also observed. In all regions, large and high echo-top convective systems are more sensitive to AEW phase than small and low echo-top systems. In semiarid regions, deep convection and large high echo-top convective systems account for a large fraction of the rainfall in the ridge and northerlies. Stratiform and small low echo-top convective systems dominate in the trough and southerlies. Convective system height and conditional rain rates increase with conditional instability and system sizes may increase with shear. Over the east Atlantic, stratiform fractions and convective system sizes and echo-top heights are greatest in the trough while the ridge is dominated by shallow convection. This is primarily related to the presence of moist air in the trough and dry air in the ridge.

African Easterly Waves during 2004—Analysis Using Objective Techniques

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (4) ◽  
pp. 1251-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gareth Berry ◽  
Chris Thorncroft ◽  
Tim Hewson
Keyword(s):  
Composite Structures ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Data Interpretation ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Marked Variability ◽  
West African Coast ◽  
Ultimate Fate ◽  
Second Category

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) are identified in numerical model analyses using an objective technique based on the 700-hPa streamfunction field. This method has been developed to (i) reduce the amount of manual data interpretation, (ii) reduce the likelihood of unrelated phenomena being identified as AEWs, and (iii) facilitate completely objective comparisons between AEWs with different structures on multiple scales, in order to describe their variability. Results show this method performs well when compared to methods of AEW identification used in previous studies. The objective technique is used to analyze all AEWs that originated over tropical North Africa during July–September (JAS) 2004. Results indicate that the “average” AEW in this period bears a close resemblance to composite structures from previous research. However, there is marked variability in the characteristics and ultimate fate of AEWs. Most AEWs of JAS 2004 are first identified east of the Greenwich meridian and develop as they move westward. Mature structures over the African continent varied, ranging from isolated potential vorticity maxima confined equatorward of the objectively defined African easterly jet to broad cross-jet structures symptomatic of both baroclinic and barotropic growth. As many as 80% of the cases fell into the second category. After leaving the West African coast, 45% of the AEWs in JAS 2004 were associated with tropical cyclogenesis in either the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean basins.

scholarly journals Propagation of Convective Complexes Observed by TRMM in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard M. Druyan ◽  
Matthew Fulakeza
Keyword(s):  
West African ◽  
Intertropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Squall Lines ◽  
Latitude Distribution ◽  
Trmm Precipitation ◽  
Synoptic Feature

Precipitation maxima during the West African summer monsoon propagate generally westward in tandem with African easterly waves. A heretofore unreported, repeating pattern of northward drift of precipitation maxima is detected on Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite) time-latitude distributions of daily accumulations over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Corresponding 3-hourly TRMM accumulations show that the northward drifting envelopes of precipitation during August 2006 are often comprised of individual swaths propagating towards the southwest, presumably as mesoscale squall lines. The implied northward drift on the time-latitude distribution is a component of a resultant northwestward movement. The study examines the entire available record of TRMM precipitation observations, 1998-2010, to summarize TRMM maxima propagation over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Meridional displacements of precipitation maxima are most prevalent in June-September 2006, occurring less frequently during other summers. An investigation of geopotential and circulation fields, limited to two case studies, suggests mechanisms to explain some of the observed propagation of TRMM maxima. In one event, northward drift of the precipitation envelope is consistent with the corresponding displacement of the intertropical convergence zone trough, although the southwest propagation of individual mesoscale convection maxima does not correspond to any synoptic feature on reanalysis circulation or reanalysis downscaled by a regional model. One speculation is that southwestward propagation of precipitation maxima could be caused by regeneration of convection at outflow boundaries of mature thunderstorms.

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