Views on Applying RKW Theory: An Illustration Using the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
pp. 1023-1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Stephen F. Corfidi ◽  
John S. Kain
Keyword(s):  
Normal Component ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Shear Component

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the vertical wind shear during the early stages of the remarkable 8 May 2009 central U.S. derecho-producing convective system. Comments on applying Rotunno–Klemp–Weisman (RKW) theory to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) of this type also are provided. During the formative stages of the MCS, the near-surface-based shear vectors ahead of the leading convective line varied with time, location, and depth, but the line-normal component of the shear in any layer below 3 km ahead of where the strong bow echo developed was relatively small (6–9 m s−1). Concurrently, the midlevel (3–6 km) line-normal shear component had magnitudes mostly >10 m s−1 throughout. In a previous companion paper, it was hypothesized that an unusually strong and expansive low-level jet led to dramatic changes in instability, shear, and forced ascent over mesoscale areas. These mesoscale effects may have overwhelmed the interactions between the cold pool and low-level shear that modulate system structure in less complex environments. If cold pool–shear interactions were critical to producing such a strong system, then the extension of the line-normal shear above 3 km also appeared to be critical. It is suggested that RKW theory be applied with much caution, and that examining the shear above 3 km is important, if one wishes to explain the formation and maintenance of intense long-lived convective systems, particularly complex nocturnal systems like the one that occurred on 8 May 2009.

scholarly journals Multiscale Processes Enabling the Longevity and Daytime Persistence of a Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 733-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manda B. Chasteen ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
David B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Unstable Environment

Abstract Nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently develop over the Great Plains in the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which contributes to convective maintenance by providing a source of instability, convergence, and low-level vertical wind shear. Although these nocturnal MCSs often dissipate during the morning, many persist into the following afternoon despite the cessation of the LLJ with the onset of solar heating. The environmental factors enabling the postsunrise persistence of nocturnal convection are currently not well understood. A thorough investigation into the processes supporting the longevity and daytime persistence of an MCS was conducted using routine observations, RAP analyses, and a WRF-ARW simulation. Elevated nocturnal convection developed in response to enhanced frontogenesis, which quickly grew upscale into a severe quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). The western portion of this QLCS reorganized into a bow echo with a pronounced cold pool and ultimately an organized leading-line, trailing-stratiform MCS as it moved into an increasingly unstable environment. Differential advection resulting from the interaction of the nocturnal LLJ with the topography of west Texas established considerable heterogeneity in moisture, CAPE, and CIN, which influenced the structure and evolution of the MCS. An inland-advected moisture plume significantly increased near-surface CAPE during the nighttime over central Texas, while the environment over southeastern Texas abruptly destabilized following the commencement of surface heating and downward moisture transport. The unique topography of the southern plains and the close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provided an environment conducive to the postsunrise persistence of the organized MCS.

Controls of Quasi-linear Convective System Tornado Intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey R. Marion ◽  
Robert J. Trapp
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Initiation Mechanism ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Short Time

AbstractAlthough tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) generally are weak and short-lived, they have high societal impact due to their proclivity to develop over short time scales, within the cool season, and during nighttime hours. Precisely why they are weak and short lived is not well understood, although recent work suggests that QLCS updraft width may act as a limitation to tornado intensity. Herein, idealized simulations of tornadic QLCSs are performed with variations in hodograph shape and length as well as initiation mechanism to determine the controls of tornado intensity. Generally, the addition of hodograph curvature in these experiments results in stronger, longer-lived tornadic like vortices (TLVs). A strong correlation between low-level mesocyclone width and TLV intensity is identified (R2 = 0.61), with a weaker correlation in the low-level updraft intensity (R2 = 0.41). The tilt and depth of the updraft are found to have little correlation to tornado intensity. Comparing QLCS and isolated supercell updrafts within these simulations, the QLCS updrafts are less persistent, with the standard deviations of low-level vertical velocity and updraft helicity to be approximately 48% and 117% greater, respectively. A forcing decomposition reveals that the QLCS cold pool plays a direct role in the development of the low-level updraft, providing the benefit of additional forcing for ascent while also having potentially deleterious effects on both the low-level updraft and near-surface rotation. The negative impact of the cold pool ultimately serves to limit the persistence of rotating updraft cores within the QLCS.

scholarly journals A Numerical Simulation Study of the Effects of Anvil Shading on Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 767-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Oberthaler ◽  
Paul M. Markowski
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Wind Profile ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Gust Front

Abstract Numerical simulations are used to investigate how the attenuation of solar radiation by the intervening cumulonimbus cloud, particularly its large anvil, affects the structure, intensity, and evolution of quasi-linear convective systems and the sensitivity of the effects of this “anvil shading” to the ambient wind profile. Shading of the pre-gust-front inflow environment (as opposed to shading of the cold pool) has the most important impact on the convective systems. The magnitude of the low-level cooling, associated baroclinicity, and stabilization of the pre-gust-front environment due to anvil shading generally increases as the duration of the shading increases. Thus, for a given leading anvil length, a slow-moving convective system tends to be affected more by anvil shading than does a fast-moving convective system. Differences in the forward speeds of the convective systems simulated in this study are largely attributable to differences in the mean environmental wind speed over the depth of the troposphere. Anvil shading reduces the buoyancy realized by the air parcels that ascend through the updrafts. As a result, anvil shading contributes to weaker updrafts relative to control simulations in which clouds are transparent to solar radiation. Anvil shading also affects the convective systems by modifying the low-level (nominally 0–2.5 km AGL) vertical wind shear in the pre-gust-front environment. The shear modifications affect the slope of the updraft region and system-relative rear-to-front flow, and the sign of the modifications is sensitive to the ground-relative vertical wind profile in the far-field environment. The vertical wind shear changes are brought about by baroclinic vorticity generation associated with the horizontal buoyancy gradient that develops in the shaded boundary layer (which makes the pre-gust-front, low-level vertical wind shear less westerly) and by a reduction of the vertical mixing of momentum due to the near-surface (nominally 0–300 m AGL) stabilization that accompanies the shading-induced cooling. The reduced mixing makes the pre-gust-front, low-level vertical shear more (less) westerly if the ambient, near-surface wind and wind shear are westerly (easterly).

Mechanisms for Quasi-Stationary Behavior in Simulated Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Systems

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 1543-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract In this study, idealized numerical simulations are used to identify the processes responsible for initiating, organizing, and maintaining quasi-stationary convective systems that produce locally extreme rainfall amounts. Of particular interest are those convective systems that have been observed to occur near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) and other midlevel circulations. To simulate the lifting associated with such circulations, a low-level momentum forcing is applied to an initial state that is representative of observed extreme rain events. The initial vertical wind profile includes a sharp reversal of the vertical wind shear with height, indicative of observed low-level jets. Deep moist convection initiates within the region of mesoscale lifting, and the resulting convective system replicates many of the features of observed systems. The low-level thermodynamic environment is nearly saturated, which is not conducive to the production of a strong surface cold pool; yet the convection quickly organizes into a back-building line. It is shown that a nearly stationary convectively generated low-level gravity wave is responsible for the linear organization, which continues for several hours. New convective cells repeatedly form on the southwest end of the line and move to the northeast, resulting in large local rainfall amounts. In the later stages of the simulated convective system, a cold pool does develop, but its interaction with the strong reverse shear at low levels is not optimized for the maintenance of deep convection along its edge. A series of sensitivity experiments shows some of the effects of hydrometeor evaporation and melting, planetary rotation, and the imposed mesoscale forcing.

scholarly journals Origin and Maintenance of the Long-Lasting, Outer Mesoscale Convective System in Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 2838-2859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buo-Fu Chen ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry ◽  
Cheng-Shang Lee
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Outer Region ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Rain Area ◽  
Characteristic Structure ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Outer mesoscale convective systems (OMCSs) are long-lasting, heavy rainfall events separate from the inner-core rainfall that have previously been shown to occur in 22% of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs). Environmental conditions accompanying the development of 62 OMCSs are contrasted with the conditions in TCs that do not include an OMCS. The development, kinematic structure, and maintenance mechanisms of an OMCS that occurred to the southwest of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) are studied with Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations and the simulations indicate the low-level TC circulation was deflected around the Luzon terrain and caused an elongated, north–south moisture band to be displaced to the west such that the OMCS develops in the outer region of Fengshen rather than spiraling into the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear contributed to frictional convergence in the boundary layer, and then the large moisture flux convergence in this moisture band led to the downstream development of the OMCS when the band interacted with the monsoon flow. As the OMCS developed in the region of low-level monsoon westerlies and midlevel northerlies associated with the outer circulation of Fengshen, the characteristic structure of a rear-fed inflow with a leading stratiform rain area in the cross-line direction (toward the south) was established. A cold pool (Δθ < −3 K) associated with the large stratiform precipitation region led to continuous formation of new cells at the leading edge of the cold pool, which contributed to the long duration of the OMCS.

Ambient Conditions Associated with the Maintenance and Decay of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems Crossing the Northeastern U.S. Coast

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
pp. 3805-3819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly A. Lombardo ◽  
Brian A. Colle
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Ambient Conditions ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems

Abstract Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) crossing the Atlantic coastline over the northeastern United States were classified into three categories based on their evolution upon encountering the coast. Composite analyses show that convective lines that decay near the Atlantic coast or slowly decay over the coastal waters are associated with 900–800-hPa frontogenesis, with greater ambient 0–3-km vertical wind shear for the slowly decaying lines. Systems that maintain their intensity over the coastal ocean are associated with 900-hPa warm air advection, but with little low-level frontogenetical forcing. Neither sea surface temperature nor ambient instability was a clear delimiter between the three evolutions. Sustaining convective lines have the strongest environmental 0–3-km shear of the three types, and this shear increases as these systems approach the coast. In contrast, the low-level shear decreases as decaying and slowly decaying convective lines move toward the Atlantic coastline. There was also a weaker mean surface cold pool for the sustaining systems than the two types of decaying QLCSs, which may favor a more long-lived system if the horizontal vorticity from this cold pool is more balanced by low-level vertical shear.

scholarly journals Near-Surface Thermodynamic Sensitivities in Simulated Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2177-2200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
John M. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Outflow Boundary

Abstract This study investigates the influences of low-level atmospheric water vapor on the precipitation produced by simulated warm-season midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). In a series of semi-idealized numerical model experiments using initial conditions gleaned from composite environments from observed cases, small increases in moisture were applied to the model initial conditions over a layer either 600 m or 1 km deep. The precipitation produced by the MCS increased with larger moisture perturbations as expected, but the rainfall changes were disproportionate to the magnitude of the moisture perturbations. The experiment with the largest perturbation had a water vapor mixing ratio increase of approximately 2 g kg−1 over the lowest 1 km, corresponding to a 3.4% increase in vertically integrated water vapor, and the area-integrated MCS precipitation in this experiment increased by nearly 60% over the control. The locations of the heaviest rainfall also changed in response to differences in the strength and depth of the convectively generated cold pool. The MCSs in environments with larger initial moisture perturbations developed stronger cold pools, and the convection remained close to the outflow boundary, whereas the convective line was displaced farther behind the outflow boundary in the control and the simulations with smaller moisture perturbations. The high sensitivity of both the amount and location of MCS rainfall to small changes in low-level moisture demonstrates how small moisture errors in numerical weather prediction models may lead to large errors in their forecasts of MCS placement and behavior.

Impact of Environmental Variations on Simulated Squall Lines Interacting with Terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (10) ◽  
pp. 3163-3183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey E. Letkewicz ◽  
Matthew D. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Wind Profile ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Squall Lines ◽  
Strong Convection ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The complex evolution of convective systems crossing (or attempting to cross) mountainous terrain represents a substantial forecasting challenge. This study examines the processes associated with environments of “crossing” squall lines (which were able to redevelop strong convection in the lee of a mountain barrier) and “noncrossing” squall lines (which were not able to redevelop strong convection downstream of the barrier). In particular, numerical simulations of mature convective systems crossing idealized terrain roughly approximating the Appalachian Mountains were used to test the first-order impact of variations in the vertical wind profile upon system maintenance. By itself, the wind profile showed no ability to uniquely discriminate between simulated crossing and noncrossing squall lines; each test revealed a similar pattern of orographic enhancement, suppression, and lee reinvigoration in which a hydraulic jump deepened the system’s cold pool and renewed the low-level lifting. Increasing the mean wind led to greater enhancement of vertical velocities on the windward side of the barrier and greater suppression on the lee side. Variations in the low-level shear influenced the temperature and depth of the outflow, which in turn altered the lifting along the system’s gust front. However, in all of the wind profile tests, convection redeveloped in the lee. Additional simulations explored more marginal environments in which idealized low-level cooling or drying stabilized the downstream environment. In most such tests, the systems weakened but the presence of CAPE aloft still enabled the systems to survive in the lee. However, the combination of a stronger mean wind with diminished CAPE and increased convective inhibition (CIN) was ultimately found to eliminate downstream redevelopment and produce a noncrossing mesoscale convective system (MCS). Within these experiments, the ability of a squall line to cross a barrier similar to the Appalachians is primarily tied to the characteristics of the downstream thermodynamic environment; however, as the lee thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable, the mean wind exerts a greater influence on system intensity and redevelopment.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Precipitation Accumulation in Elevated Convective Systems to Small Changes in Low-Level Moisture

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 2507-2524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems

Abstract Using a method for initiating a quasi-stationary, heavy-rain-producing elevated mesoscale convective system in an idealized numerical modeling framework, a series of experiments is conducted in which a shallow layer of drier air is introduced within the near-surface stable layer. The environment is still very moist in the experiments, with changes to the column-integrated water vapor of only 0.3%–1%. The timing and general evolution of the simulated convective systems are very similar, but rainfall accumulation at the surface is changed by a much larger fraction than the reduction in moisture, with point precipitation maxima reduced by up to 29% and domain-averaged precipitation accumulations reduced by up to 15%. The differences in precipitation are partially attributed to increases in the evaporation rate in the shallow subcloud layer, though this is found to be a secondary effect. More importantly, even though the near-surface layer has strong convective inhibition in all simulations and the convective available potential energy of the most unstable parcels is unchanged, convection is less intense in the experiments with drier subcloud layers because less air originating in that layer rises in convective updrafts. An additional experiment with a cooler near-surface layer corroborates these findings. The results from these experiments suggest that convective systems assumed to be elevated are, in fact, drawing air from near the surface unless the low levels are very stable. Considering that the moisture differences imposed here are comparable to observational uncertainties in low-level temperature and moisture, the strong sensitivity of accumulated precipitation to these quantities has implications for the predictability of extreme rainfall.

Impacts of Coastal Terrain on Warm-Sector Heavy-Rain-Producing MCSs in Southern China

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Sector ◽  
Shear Component

Abstract Warm-sector heavy rainfall in southern China refers to the heavy rainfall that occurs within a weakly-forced synoptic environment under the influence of monsoonal airflows. It is usually located near the southern coast, and is characterized by poor predictability and a close relationship with coastal terrain. This study investigates the impacts of coastal terrain on the initiation, organization and heavy-rainfall potential of MCSs in warm-sector heavy rainfall over southern China using quasi-idealized WRF simulations and terrain-modification experiments. Typical warm-sector heavy rainfall events were selected to produce composite environments that forced the simulations. MCSs in these events all initiated in the early morning and developed into quasi-linear convective systems along the coast with a prominent backbuilding process. When the small coastal terrain is removed, the maximum 12-h rainfall accumulation decreases by ~46%. The convection initiation is advanced ~2 h with the help of orographic lifting associated with flow interaction with the coastal hills in the control experiment. Moreover, the coastal terrain weakens near-surface winds and thus decreases the deep-layer vertical wind shear component perpendicular to the coast and increases the component parallel to the coast; the coastal terrain also concentrates the moisture and instability over the coastal region by weakening the boundary layer jet. These modifications lead to faster upscale growth of convection and eventually a well-organized MCS. The coastal terrain is beneficial for backbuilding convection and thus persistent rainfall by providing orographic lifting for new cells on the western end of the MCS, and by facilitating a stronger and more stagnant cold pool, which stimulates new cells near its rear edge.

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