scholarly journals An Observational and Modeling Study of the Processes Leading to Deep, Moist Convection in Complex Terrain

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 2687-2708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
Lindsay J. Bennett ◽  
L. Jay Miller ◽  
Joël Van Baelen ◽  
Paolo Di Girolamo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Vosges Mountains ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract A case study of orographic convection initiation (CI) that occurred along the eastern slopes of the Vosges Mountains in France on 6 August 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is presented. Global positioning system (GPS) receivers and two Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radars sampled the preconvective and storm environments and were respectively used to retrieve three-dimensional tomographic water vapor and wind fields. These retrieved data were supplemented with temperature, moisture, and winds from radiosondes from a site in the eastern Rhine Valley. High-resolution numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to further investigate the physical processes leading to convective precipitation. This unique, time-varying combination of derived water vapor and winds from observations illustrated an increase in low-level moisture and convergence between upslope easterlies and downslope westerlies along the eastern slope of the Vosges Mountains. Uplift associated with these shallow, colliding boundary layer flows eventually led to the initiation of moist convection. WRF reproduced many features of the observed complicated flow, such as cyclonic (anticyclonic) flow around the southern (northern) end of the Vosges Mountains and the east-side convergent flow below the ridgeline. The WRF simulations also illustrated spatial and temporal variability in buoyancy and the removal of the lids prior to convective development. The timing and location of CI from the WRF simulations was surprisingly close to that observed.

scholarly journals Radiosonde observations of environments supporting deep moist convection initiation during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Connor Nelson ◽  
James Marquis ◽  
Adam Varble ◽  
Katja Friedrich
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convection Initiation

AbstractThe Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) projects deployed a high-spatiotemporal-resolution radiosonde network to examine environments supporting deep convection in the complex terrain of central Argentina. This study aims to characterize atmospheric profiles most representative of the near-cloud environment (in time and space) to identify the mesoscale ingredients affecting storm initiation and growth. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation analysis of the soundings reveals that there is considerable environmental heterogeneity, with boundary layer thermodynamic and kinematic fields becoming statistically uncorrelated on scales of 1–2 hr and 30 km. Using this as guidance, we examine a variety of environmental parameters derived from soundings collected within close proximity (30 km and 30 min in space and time) of 44 events over 9 days where the atmosphere either: 1) supported the initiation of sustained precipitating convection, 2) yielded weak and short-lived precipitating convection, or 3) produced no precipitating convection in disagreement with numerical forecasts from convection-allowing models (i.e., Null events). There are large statistical differences between the Null event environments and those supporting any convective precipitation. Null event profiles contained larger convective available potential energy, but had low free tropospheric relative humidity, higher freezing levels, and evidence of limited horizontal convergence near the terrain at low levels that likely suppressed deep convective growth. We also present evidence from the radiosonde and satellite measurements that flow-terrain interactions may yield gravity wave activity that affects CI outcome.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Radar Radial Velocity, Reflectivity, and Pseudo–Water Vapor for Convective-Scale NWP in a Variational Framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 2877-2900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwei Lai ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Yunheng Wang ◽  
Sijie Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Variational Framework ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract To improve severe thunderstorm prediction, a novel pseudo-observation and assimilation approach involving water vapor mass mixing ratio is proposed to better initialize NWP forecasts at convection-resolving scales. The first step of the algorithm identifies areas of deep moist convection by utilizing the vertically integrated liquid water (VIL) derived from three-dimensional radar reflectivity fields. Once VIL is obtained, pseudo–water vapor observations are derived based on reflectivity thresholds within columns characterized by deep moist convection. Areas of spurious convection also are identified by the algorithm to help reduce their detrimental impact on the forecast. The third step is to assimilate the derived pseudo–water vapor observations into a convection-resolving-scale NWP model along with radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields in a 3DVAR framework during 4-h data assimilation cycles. Finally, 3-h forecasts are launched every hour during that period. The performance of this method is examined for two selected high-impact severe thunderstorm events: namely, the 24 May 2011 Oklahoma and 16 May 2017 Texas and Oklahoma tornado outbreaks. Relative to a control simulation that only assimilated radar data, the analyses and forecasts of these supercells (reflectivity patterns, tracks, and updraft helicity tracks) are qualitatively and quantitatively improved in both cases when the water vapor information is added into the analysis.

scholarly journals The Influence of Assimilated Upstream, Preconvective Dropsonde Observations on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4747-4770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra M. Keclik ◽  
Clark Evans ◽  
Paul J. Roebber ◽  
Glen S. Romine
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
High Bias ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convection Initiation

This study tests the hypothesis that assimilating mid- to upper-tropospheric, meso- α- to synoptic-scale observations collected in upstream, preconvective environments is insufficient to improve short-range ensemble convection initiation (CI) forecast skill over the set of cases considered by the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) because of a limited influence upon the lower-tropospheric phenomena that modulate CI occurrence, timing, and location. The ensemble Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed as coupled to the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to initialize two nearly identical 30-member ensembles of short-range forecasts for each case: one initial condition set that incorporates MPEX dropsonde observations and one that excludes these observations. All forecasts for a given mission begin at 1500 UTC and are integrated for 15 h on a convection-permitting grid encompassing much of the conterminous United States. Forecast verification is conducted probabilistically using fractions skill score and deterministically using a 2 × 2 contingency table approach at multiple neighborhood sizes and spatiotemporal event-matching thresholds to assess forecast skill and support hypothesis testing. The probabilistic verification represents the first of its kind for numerical CI forecasts. Forecasts without MPEX observations have high fractions skill score and probabilities of detection on the meso- α scale but exhibit a considerable high bias for forecast CI event count. Assimilating MPEX observations has a negligible impact upon forecast skill for the cases considered, independent of verification metric, as the MPEX observations result in only subtle differences primarily manifest in the position and intensity of atmospheric features responsible for focusing and/or triggering deep, moist convection.

scholarly journals Assimilating FY-4A Lightning and Radar Data for Improving Short-Term Forecasts of a High-Impact Convective Event with a Dual-Resolution Hybrid 3DEnVAR Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3090
Author(s):  
Peng Liu ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Anwei Lai ◽  
Yunheng Wang ◽  
Alexandre O. Fierro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Total Lightning

A dual-resolution, hybrid, three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVAR) data assimilation method combining static and ensemble background error covariances is used to assimilate radar data, and pseudo-water vapor observations to improve short-term severe weather forecasts with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The higher-resolution deterministic forecast and the lower-resolution ensemble members have 3 and 9 km horizontal resolution, respectively. The water vapor pseudo-observations are derived from the combined use of total lightning data and cloud top height from the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A) geostationary satellite. First, a set of single-analysis experiments are conducted to provide a preliminary performance evaluation of the effectiveness of the hybrid method for assimilating multisource observations; second, a set of cycling analysis experiments are used to evaluate the forecast performance in convective-scale high-frequency analysis; finally, different hybrid coefficients are tested in both the single and cycling experiments. The single-analysis results show that the combined assimilation of radar data and water vapor pseudo-observations derived from the lightning data is able to generate reasonable vertical velocity, water vapor and hydrometeor adjustments, which help to trigger convection earlier in the forecast/analysis and reduce the spin-up time. The dual-resolution hybrid 3DEnVAR method is able to adjust the wind fields and hydrometeor variables with the assimilation of lightning data, which helps maintain the triggered convection longer and partially suppress spurious cells in the forecast compared with the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. A cycling analysis that introduced a large number of observations with more frequent small adjustments is able to better resolve the observed convective events than a single-analysis approach. Different hybrid coefficients can affect the forecast results, either in the single deterministic or cycling analysis experiments. Overall, we found that a static coefficient of 0.4 and an ensemble coefficient of 0.6 yields the best forecast skill for this event.

scholarly journals A Theory for Buoyancy and Velocity Scales in Deep Moist Convection

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (11) ◽  
pp. 3449-3463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Parodi ◽  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Terminal Velocity ◽  
Statistical Equilibrium ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Convective Structures ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract Buoyancy and velocity scales for dry convection in statistical equilibrium were derived in the early twentieth century by Prandtl, but the scaling of convective velocity and buoyancy, as well as the fractional area coverage of convective clouds, is still unresolved for moist convection. In this paper, high-resolution simulations of an atmosphere in radiative–convective equilibrium are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic, convection-resolving, limited-area model. The velocity and buoyancy scales for moist convection in statistical equilibrium are characterized by prescribing different constant cooling rates to the system. It is shown that the spatiotemporal properties of deep moist convection and buoyancy and velocity scales at equilibrium depend on the terminal velocity of raindrops and a hypothesis is developed to explain this behavior. This hypothesis is evaluated and discussed in the context of the numerical results provided by the WRF model. The influence of domain size on radiative–convective equilibrium statistics is also assessed. The dependence of finescale spatiotemporal properties of convective structures on numerical and physical details is investigated.

Quasi-idealized numerical simulations of processes involved in orogenic convection initiation over the Sierras de Córdoba mountains

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Convergence Line ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Outflow Boundary ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract The Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) mountain range in Argentina is a hotspot of deep moist convection initiation (CI). Radar climatology indicates that 44% of daytime CI events that occur near the SDC in spring and summer seasons and that are not associated with the passage of a cold front or an outflow boundary involve a northerly LLJ, and these events tend to preferentially occur over the southeast quadrant of the main ridge of the SDC. To investigate the physical mechanisms acting to cause CI, idealized convection-permitting numerical simulations with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km were conducted using CM1. The sounding used for initializing the model featured a strong northerly LLJ, with synoptic conditions resembling those in a previously postulated conceptual model of CI over the region, making it a canonical case study. Differential heating of the mountain caused by solar insolation in conjunction with the low-level northerly flow sets up a convergence line on the eastern slopes of the SDC. The southern portion of this line experiences significant reduction in convective inhibition, and CI occurs over the SDC southeast quadrant. Thesimulated storm soon acquires supercellular characteristics, as observed. Additional simulations with varying LLJ strength also show CI over the southeast quadrant. A simulation without background flow generated convergence over the ridgeline, with widespread CI across the entire ridgeline. A simulation with mid- and upper-tropospheric westerlies removed indicates that CI is minimally influenced by gravity waves. We conclude that the low-level jet is sufficient to focus convection initiation over the southeast quadrant of the ridge.

scholarly journals Image Processing of Radar Mosaics for the Climatology of Convection Initiation in South China

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lanqiang Bai ◽  
Guixing Chen ◽  
Ling Huang
Keyword(s):  
South China ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Late Night ◽  
Morning Peak ◽  
Spatial Modes ◽  
Triggering Mechanisms ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convection Initiation

AbstractA dataset of convection initiation (CI) is of great value in studying the triggering mechanisms of deep moist convection and evaluating the performances of numerical models. In recent years, the data quality of the operationally generated radar mosaics over China has been greatly improved, which provides an opportunity to retrieve a CI dataset from that region. In this work, an attempt is made to reveal the potential of applying a simple framework of objective CI detection for the study of CI climatology in China. The framework was tested using radar mosaic maps in South China that were accessible online. The identified CI events were validated in both direct and indirect ways. On the basis of a direct manual check, nearly all of the identified CI cells had an organized motion. The precipitation echoes of the cells had a median duration of approximately 2.5 h. The CI occurrences were further compared with rainfall estimates to ensure physical consistency. The diurnal cycle of CI occurrence exhibits three major modes: a late-night-to-morning peak at the windward coasts and offshore, a noon-to-late-afternoon peak on the coastal land, and an evening-to-early-morning peak over the northwestern highland. These spatial modes agree well with those of rainfall, indirectly suggesting the reliability of the CI statistics. By processing radar mosaic maps, such a framework could be applied for studying CI climatology over China and other regions.

Convection Initiation Aided by Lake-Breeze Convergence over the Niagara Peninsula

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (11) ◽  
pp. 3955-3979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chih Wang ◽  
Daniel J. Kirshbaum ◽  
David M. L. Sills
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Lake Breeze ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Warm Advection ◽  
American Science ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Cloud Tops

Abstract Observations from the 2015 Environment and Climate Change Canada Pan/Parapan American Science Showcase (ECPASS) and real-case, cloud-resolving numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are used to investigate two cases of moist convection forced by lake-breeze convergence over southern Ontario (18 July and 15 August 2015). The two cases shared several characteristics, including high pressure conditions, similar morning soundings, and isolated afternoon convection along a line of lake-breeze convergence between Lakes Erie and Ontario. However, the convection was significantly stronger in the August case, with robustly deeper clouds and larger radar reflectivities than in the July case. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses of these events reveal that the key difference between them was their large-scale forcing. The July event exhibited a combination of strong warm advection and large-scale descent at midlevels (850–650 hPa), which created an inversion layer that capped cloud tops at 4–6 km. The August case exhibited similar features (large-scale descent and warm advection), but these were focused at higher levels (700–400 hPa) and weaker. As a consequence, the convection in the August case was less suppressed at midlevels and ascended deeper (reaching over 8 km). Although the subcloud updraft along the lake-breeze convergence zone was also found to be stronger in the August case, this difference was found to be an effect, rather than a cause, of stronger moist convection within the cloud layer.

scholarly journals A Spatial Filter Approach to Evaluating the Role of Convection on the Evolution of a Mesoscale Vortex

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 1954-1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn A. Creighton ◽  
Robert E. Hart ◽  
Philip Cunningham
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Spatial Separation ◽  
Spatial Filter ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Vortex ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Vortical Hot Towers ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract A new spatial filter is proposed that exploits a spectral gap in power between the convective scale and the system (“vortex”) scale during tropical cyclone (TC) genesis simulations. Using this spatial separation, this study analyzes idealized three-dimensional numerical simulations of deep moist convection in the presence of a symmetric midlevel vortex to quantify and understand the energy cascade between the objectively defined convective scale and system scale during the early stages of tropical cyclogenesis. The simulations neglect surface momentum, heat, and moisture fluxes to focus on generation and enhancement of vorticity within the interior to more completely close off the energy budget and to be consistent for comparison with prior benchmark studies of modeled TC genesis. The primary contribution to system-scale intensification comes from the convergence of convective-scale vorticity that is supplied by vortical hot towers (VHTs). They contribute more than the convergence of system-scale vorticity to the spinup of vorticity in these simulations by an order of magnitude. Analysis of the change of circulation with time shows an initial strengthening of the surface vortex, closely followed by a growth of the mid- to upper-level circulation. This evolution precludes any possibility of a stratiform precipitation–induced top-down mechanism as the primary contributor to system-scale spinup in this simulation. Instead, an upscale cascade of rotational kinetic energy during vortex mergers is responsible for spinup of the simulated mesoscale vortex. The spatial filter employed herein offers an alternative approach to the traditional symmetry–asymmetry paradigm, acknowledges the highly asymmetric evolution of the system-scale vortex itself, and may prove useful to future studies on TC genesis.

Genesis of Pre–Hurricane Felix (2007). Part II: Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1730-1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
T. J. Dunkerton
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Numerical Technique ◽  
Transformation Process ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Stratiform Precipitation ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm’s warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave’s pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave’s critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

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