scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0247272
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Marković
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Reaction Model ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short And Long Term

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Markovic
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fixed Period

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemics has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an essential role both for the baseline infection rate and the short-term and long-term reaction to the outbreak. Here we investigate how societies as a whole, and governments, in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalisation of the SIR model, the controlled SIR model. We posit that containment measures correspond to feedback between the status of the outbreak (the daily or the cumulative number of cases and fatalities) and the reproduction factor. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short- and long-term control parameters. Furthermore, we identified for numerous countries a relationship between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak in daily fatalities. As the number of fatalities corresponds to the number of hospitalised patients, the relationship can be used to predict the cumulative medical load, once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty.

scholarly journals Personality dynamics at work: The effects of form, time, and context of variability

2021 ◽  
pp. 089020702110173
Author(s):  
Nadin Beckmann ◽  
Damian P Birney ◽  
Amirali Minbashian ◽  
Jens F Beckmann
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Ability ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Data ◽  
The Status ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Trait Variability

The study aimed to investigate the status of within-person state variability in neuroticism and conscientiousness as individual differences constructs by exploring their (a) temporal stability, (b) cross-context consistency, (c) empirical links to selected antecedents, and (d) empirical links to longer term trait variability. Employing a sample of professionals ( N = 346) from Australian organisations, personality state data together with situation appraisals were collected using experience sampling methodology in field and repeatedly in lab-like settings. Data on personality traits, cognitive ability, and motivational mindsets were collected at baseline and after two years. Contingent (situation contingencies) and non-contingent (relative SD) state variability indices were relatively stable over time and across contexts. Only a small number of predictive effects of state variability were observed, and these differed across contexts. Cognitive ability appeared to be associated with state variability under lab-like conditions. There was limited evidence of links between short-term state and long-term trait variability, except for a small effect for neuroticism. Some evidence of positive manifold was found for non-contingent variability. Systematic efforts are required to further elucidate the complex pattern of results regarding the antecedents, correlates and outcomes of individual differences in state variability.

scholarly journals Feasibility and Enjoyment of Exercise Video Games in Older Adults

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 559-559
Author(s):  
Sara Freed ◽  
Briana Sprague ◽  
Lesley Ross
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Video Games ◽  
Game Design ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Xbox Kinect ◽  
Game Developers

Abstract Interventions using exercise video games, or exergames, have shown short-term cognitive and physical benefits to older adults, though long-term effects are less promising. Enjoyment of exergames may promote exergame use after the intervention period, though little work has examined older adults’ views of exergames before and after gameplay experience. We invited 20 older adults between 65 and 84 years of age (M=73.30, SD=5.95) to play two Xbox Kinect games, Just Dance and Kinect Sports Rivals, for twenty minutes. In our presentation, we will present qualitative and quantitative findings of this pilot study, including findings that older adults reported that they were not likely to play similar exergames in the future and that they did not find the exergames to be more fun compared to other ways of exercising. We will discuss implications for game design and research relevant to game developers, manufacturers, and researchers. Part of a symposium sponsored by Technology and Aging Interest Group.

scholarly journals Endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy for the treatment of intradural extramedullary tumors: an operative technique and short-term outcomes of 20 consecutive cases

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Yan ◽  
Huiqing Wang ◽  
Cai Li ◽  
Yuanxiang Lin ◽  
Lin Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Technique ◽  
Spinal Deformity ◽  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Intradural Extramedullary ◽  
Controlled Surgery

Abstract Background To present a surgical technique for the treatment of intradural extramedullary (IDEM) tumors by using endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy technique. Methods In this study, 20 patients with 22 IDEM tumors were enrolled. An endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy was employed to remove the tumors. Data related to clinical symptoms and medical images before and after surgery were collected for perioperative evaluation and follow-up analysis. Results All the tumors in 20 patients were well removed. The clinical symptoms were significantly reduced in all the patients as well. The short-term follow-up data showed that there was no tumor recurrence or spinal deformity. Conclusion The endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy technique provided favorable exposure and satisfactory resection to the IDEM tumors. It may be an effective surgical method for treating IDEM tumors. Larger samples and longer follow-up data are needed to verify its long-term effectiveness.

scholarly journals Maternal Vaginal Ureaplasma spp. Colonization in Early Pregnancy Is Associated with Adverse Short- and Long-Term Outcome of Very Preterm Infants

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 276
Author(s):  
Judith Rittenschober-Böhm ◽  
Tanja Habermüller ◽  
Thomas Waldhoer ◽  
Renate Fuiko ◽  
Stefan M. Schulz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Infants ◽  
Early Pregnancy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
Very Preterm Infants ◽  
Very Preterm ◽  
Vaginal Colonization ◽  
Short And Long Term

Vaginal colonization with Ureaplasma (U.) spp. has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcome; however, data on neonatal outcome are scarce. The aim of the study was to investigate whether maternal vaginal colonization with U. spp. in early pregnancy represents a risk factor for adverse short- or long-term outcome of preterm infants. Previously, 4330 pregnant women were enrolled in an observational multicenter study, analyzing the association between vaginal U. spp. colonization and spontaneous preterm birth. U. spp. colonization was diagnosed via PCR analysis from vaginal swabs. For this study, data on short-term outcome were collected from medical records and long-term outcome was examined via Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months adjusted age. Two-hundred-and-thirty-eight children were born <33 weeks gestational age. After exclusion due to asphyxia, malformations, and lost-to-follow-up, data on short-term and long-term outcome were available from 222 and 92 infants, respectively. Results show a significant association between vaginal U. spp. colonization and severe intraventricular hemorrhage (10.4% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.03), retinopathy of prematurity (21.7% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.03), and adverse psychomotor outcome (24.3% vs. 1.8%, OR 13.154, 95%CI 1.6,110.2, p = 0.005). The data suggest an association between vaginal U. spp. colonization in early pregnancy and adverse short- and long-term outcome of very preterm infants.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ashworth ◽  
◽  
Antonis Analitis ◽  
David Whitney ◽  
Evangelia Samoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

scholarly journals Induction of cell wall phenolic monomers as part of direct defense response in maize to pink stem borer (Sesamia inferens Walker) and non-insect interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Lakshmi Soujanya ◽  
J. C. Sekhar ◽  
C. V. Ratnavathi ◽  
Chikkappa G. Karjagi ◽  
E. Shobha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Induced Defense ◽  
Stem Borer ◽  
Defense Responses ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mechanical Wounding ◽  
Leaf Tissues ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Insect Interactions ◽  
Induced Defense Responses

AbstractPink stem borer (PSB) causes considerable yield losses to maize. Plant–insect interactions have significant implications for sustainable pest management. The present study demonstrated that PSB feeding, mechanical wounding, a combination of mechanical wounding and PSB regurgitation and exogenous application of methyl jasmonate have induced phenolic compound mediated defense responses both at short term (within 2 days of treatment) and long term (in 15 days of treatment) in leaf and stalk tissues of maize. The quantification of two major defense related phenolic compounds namely p-Coumaric acid (p-CA) and ferulic acid (FA) was carried out through ultra-fast liquid chromatography (UFLC) at 2 and 15 days after imposing the above treatments. The p-CA content induced in leaf tissues of maize genotypes were intrinsically higher when challenged by PSB attack at V3 and V6 stages in short- and long-term responses. Higher p-CA content was observed in stalk tissues upon wounding and regurgitation in short- and long-term responses at V3 and V6 stages. Significant accumulation of FA content was also observed in leaf tissues in response to PSB feeding at V3 stage in long-term response while at V6 stage it was observed both in short- and long-term responses. In stalk tissues, methyl jasmonate induced higher FA content in short-term response at V3 stage. However, at V6 stage PSB feeding induced FA accumulation in the short-term while, wounding and regurgitation treatment-induced defense responses in the long-term. In general, the resistant (DMRE 63, CM 500) and moderately resistant genotypes (WNZ ExoticPool) accumulated significantly higher contents of p-CA and FA content than susceptible ones (CM 202, BML 6) in most of the cases. The study indicates that phenolic mediated defense responses in maize are induced by PSB attack followed by wounding and regurgitation compared to the other induced treatments. Furthermore, the study confirmed that induced defense responses vary with plant genotype, stage of crop growth, plant tissue and short and long-term responses. The results of the study suggested that the Phenolic acids i.e. p-CA and FA may contribute to maize resistance mechanisms in the maize-PSB interaction system.

scholarly journals Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 620
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kyriakou ◽  
Parastoo Mousavi ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Excess Stock Returns

The fundamental interest of investors in econometric modeling for excess stock returns usually focuses either on short- or long-term predictions to individually reduce the investment risk. In this paper, we present a new and simple model that contemporaneously accounts for short- and long-term predictions. By combining the different horizons, we exploit the lower long-term variance to further reduce the short-term variance, which is susceptible to speculative exuberance. As a consequence, the long-term pension-saver avoids an over-conservative portfolio with implied potential upside reductions given their optimal risk appetite. Different combinations of short and long horizons as well as definitions of excess returns, for example, concerning the traditional short-term interest rate but also the inflation, are easily accommodated in our model.

scholarly journals Effect of short-term smoking & L-arginine on coronary endothelial function assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance cold pressor testing: a pilot study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Weng ◽  
Herbert Köstler ◽  
Thorsten A. Bley ◽  
Christian O. Ritter
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Resonance ◽  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
Cold Pressor Test ◽  
Cold Pressor ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pressor Test ◽  
Coronary Vasomotion ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Coronary Endothelium

Abstract Background The effect of smoking on coronary vasomotion has been investigated in the past with various imaging techniques in both short- and long-term smokers. Additionally, coronary vasomotion has been shown to be normalized in long-term smokers by L-Arginine acting as a substrate for NO synthase, revealing the coronary endothelium as the major site of abnormal vasomotor response. Aim of the prospective cohort study was to investigate coronary vasomotion of young healthy short-term smokers via magnetic resonance cold pressor test with and without the administration of L-Arginine and compare obtained results with the ones from nonsmokers. Methods Myocardial blood flow (MBF) was quantified with first-pass perfusion MRI on a 1.5 T scanner in healthy short-term smokers (N = 10, age: 25.0 ± 2.8 years, 5.0 ± 2.9 pack years) and nonsmokers (N = 10, age: 34.3 ± 13.6) both at rest and during cold pressor test (CPT). Smokers underwent an additional examination after administration of L-Arginine within a median of 7 days of the naïve examination. Results MBF at rest turned out to be 0.77 ± 0.30 (smokers with no L-Arginine; mean ± standard deviation), 0.66 ± 0.21 (smokers L-Arginine) and 0.84 ± 0.08 (nonsmokers). Values under CPT were 1.21 ± 0.42 (smokers no L-Arginine), 1.09 ± 0.35 (smokers L-Arginine) and 1.63 ± 0.33 (nonsmokers). In all groups, MBF was significantly increased under CPT compared to the corresponding rest examination (p < 0.05 in all cases). Additionally, MBF under CPT was significantly different between the smokers and the nonsmokers (p = 0.002). MBF at rest was significantly different between the smokers when L-Arginine was given and the nonsmokers (p = 0.035). Conclusion Short-term smokers showed a reduced response to cold both with and without the administration of L-Arginine. However, absolute MBF values under CPT were lower compared to nonsmokers independently of L-Arginine administration.

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