scholarly journals Simulation of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over East Asia Using the NCEP GFS Cumulus Parameterization at Different Horizontal Resolutions

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1143-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Jin-Ho Yoon ◽  
Jongil Han
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract The most recent version of the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) (GFS SAS) is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a modification of the triggering condition and the convective mass flux in order to make it dependent on the model’s horizontal grid spacing. The East Asian summer monsoon season of 2006 is selected in order to evaluate the performance of the modified GFS SAS scheme. In comparison to the original GFS SAS scheme, the modified GFS SAS scheme shows overall better agreement with the observations in terms of the simulated monsoon rainfall. The simulated precipitation from the original GFS SAS scheme is insensitive to the model’s horizontal grid spacing, which is counterintuitive because the portion of the resolved clouds in a grid box should increase as the model grid spacing decreases. This behavior of the original GFS SAS scheme is alleviated by the modified GFS SAS scheme. In addition, three different cumulus schemes (Grell and Freitas, Kain and Fritsch, and Betts–Miller–Janjić) are chosen to investigate the role of a horizontal resolution on the simulated monsoon rainfall. Although the forecast skill of the surface rainfall does not always improve as the spatial resolution increases, the improvement of the probability density function of the rain rate with the smaller grid spacing is robust regardless of the cumulus parameterization scheme.

scholarly journals Regional Simulation of Indian summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations at Gray Zone Resolution

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingchao Chen ◽  
Olivier M. Pauluis ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Central India ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Gray Zone ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations

Abstract. Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by cloud-permitting WRF model at gray zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental set-up relies on a high horizontal resolution of 9 km to capture deep convection without the use of a cumulus parameterization. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27-km) and using the cumulus scheme, our approach results in a reduction of the biases in mean precipitation and in more realistic reproduction of the low frequency variability associated with MISO. Results show that the model at gray zone resolution captures the fundamental features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in WRF simulations are verified qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over West Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. MISO phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations are compared qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISO, with the intensification and weakening of Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of WRF Downscaled Precipitation in Puerto Rico to Cumulus Parameterization and Interior Grid Nudging

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (10) ◽  
pp. 2263-2281 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Wootten ◽  
J. H. Bowden ◽  
R. Boyles ◽  
A. Terando
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Horizontal Grid

AbstractThe sensitivity of the precipitation over Puerto Rico that is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is evaluated using multiple combinations of cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes and interior grid nudging. The NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2) is downscaled to 2-km horizontal grid spacing both with convective-permitting simulations (CP active only in the middle and outer domains) and with CP schemes active in all domains. The results generally show lower simulated precipitation amounts than are observed, regardless of WRF configuration, but activating the CP schemes in the inner domain improves the annual cycle, intensity, and placement of rainfall relative to the convective-permitting simulations. Furthermore, the use of interior-grid-nudging techniques in the outer domains improves the placement and intensity of rainfall in the inner domain. Incorporating a CP scheme at convective-permitting scales (<4 km) and grid nudging at non-convective-permitting scales (>4 km) improves the island average correlation of precipitation by 0.05–0.2 and reduces the island average RMSE by up to 40 mm on average over relying on the explicit microphysics at convective-permitting scales with grid nudging. Projected changes in summer precipitation between 2040–42 and 1985–87 using WRF to downscale CCSM4 range from a 2.6-mm average increase to an 81.9-mm average decrease, depending on the choice of CP scheme. The differences are only associated with differences between WRF configurations, which indicates the importance of CP scheme for projected precipitation change as well as historical accuracy.

scholarly journals Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 1003-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingchao Chen ◽  
Olivier M. Pauluis ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Central India ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Gray Zone ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations

Abstract. Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations  (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity to Horizontal Resolution

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
pp. 688-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan S. Gentry ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Hurricane Ivan ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to test the sensitivity of simulations of Hurricane Ivan (2004) to changes in horizontal grid spacing for grid lengths from 8 to 1 km. As resolution is increased, minimum central pressure decreases significantly (by 30 hPa from 8- to 1-km grid spacing), although this increase in intensity is not uniform across similar reductions in grid spacing, even when pressure fields are interpolated to a common grid. This implies that the additional strengthening of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) at higher resolution is not attributable to sampling, but is due to changes in the representation of physical processes important to TC intensity. The most apparent changes in simulated TC structure with resolution occur near a grid length of 4 km. At 4-km grid spacing and below, polygonal eyewall segments appear, suggestive of breaking vortex Rossby waves. With sub-4-km grid lengths, localized, intense updraft cores within the eyewall are numerous and both polygonal and circular eyewall shapes appear regularly. Higher-resolution simulations produce a greater variety of shapes, transitioning more frequently between polygonal and circular eyewalls relative to lower-resolution simulations. It is hypothesized that this is because of the ability to resolve a greater range of wavenumbers in high-resolution simulations. Also, as resolution is increased, a broader range of updraft and downdraft velocities is present in the eyewall. These results suggest that grid spacing of 2 km or less is needed for representation of important physical processes in the TC eyewall. Grid-length and domain size suggestions for operational prediction are provided; for operational prediction, a grid length of 3 km or less is recommended.

Next-Day Convection-Allowing WRF Model Guidance: A Second Look at 2-km versus 4-km Grid Spacing

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (10) ◽  
pp. 3351-3372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwartz ◽  
John S. Kain ◽  
Steven J. Weiss ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
David R. Bright ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Similar Work ◽  
Horizontal Grid

Abstract During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced convection-allowing forecasts from a single deterministic 2-km model and a 10-member 4-km-resolution ensemble. In this study, the 2-km deterministic output was compared with forecasts from the 4-km ensemble control member. Other than the difference in horizontal resolution, the two sets of forecasts featured identical Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF) configurations, including vertical resolution, forecast domain, initial and lateral boundary conditions, and physical parameterizations. Therefore, forecast disparities were attributed solely to differences in horizontal grid spacing. This study is a follow-up to similar work that was based on results from the 2005 Spring Experiment. Unlike the 2005 experiment, however, model configurations were more rigorously controlled in the present study, providing a more robust dataset and a cleaner isolation of the dependence on horizontal resolution. Additionally, in this study, the 2- and 4-km outputs were compared with 12-km forecasts from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Model forecasts were analyzed using objective verification of mean hourly precipitation and visual comparison of individual events, primarily during the 21- to 33-h forecast period to examine the utility of the models as next-day guidance. On average, both the 2- and 4-km model forecasts showed substantial improvement over the 12-km NAM. However, although the 2-km forecasts produced more-detailed structures on the smallest resolvable scales, the patterns of convective initiation, evolution, and organization were remarkably similar to the 4-km output. Moreover, on average, metrics such as equitable threat score, frequency bias, and fractions skill score revealed no statistical improvement of the 2-km forecasts compared to the 4-km forecasts. These results, based on the 2007 dataset, corroborate previous findings, suggesting that decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 4 to 2 km provides little added value as next-day guidance for severe convective storm and heavy rain forecasters in the United States.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Saran Aadhar ◽  
Shanti Shwarup Mahto
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractFlash droughts cause rapid depletion in root-zone soil moisture and severely affect crop health and irrigation water demands. However, their occurrence and impacts in the current and future climate in India remain unknown. Here we use observations and model simulations from the large ensemble of Community Earth System Model to quantify the risk of flash droughts in India. Root-zone soil moisture simulations conducted using Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that flash droughts predominantly occur during the summer monsoon season (June–September) and driven by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Positive temperature anomalies during the monsoon break rapidly deplete soil moisture, which is further exacerbated by the land-atmospheric feedback. The worst flash drought in the observed (1951–2016) climate occurred in 1979, affecting more than 40% of the country. The frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes is projected to rise by about five-fold, causing approximately seven-fold increase in flash droughts like 1979 by the end of the 21st century. The increased risk of flash droughts in the future is attributed to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon rainfall and anthropogenic warming, which can have deleterious implications for crop production, irrigation demands, and groundwater abstraction in India.

scholarly journals Validation of the HIRHAM-Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Polanski ◽  
Annette Rinke ◽  
Klaus Dethloff
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40) data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

scholarly journals Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt ◽  
Hans Schlager ◽  
Robert Baumann ◽  
Duy S. Cai ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Southern Fringe

Abstract. This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012 into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from the rest of the year. Air uplifted from the lower troposphere to the tropopause layer dominates the eastern part of the ASMA’s interior, while the western part is characterised by subsidence down to the mid-troposphere. Soluble compounds are being washed out when uplifted by convection in the eastern part, where lightning simultaneously replenishes reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere. Net photochemical ozone production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, contrasted by an ozone depleting regime in the mid-troposphere and more neutral conditions in autumn and winter. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank, and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production, as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulation additionally shows entrainment of clean air from the equatorial region by northerly winds at the western ASMA flank. Although the in situ measurements were performed towards the end of summer, the main ingredients needed for their interpretation are present throughout the monsoon season. A transition between two dynamical modes of the ASMA took place during the HALO ESMVal campaign. Transport barriers of the original anticyclone are overcome effectively when it splits up. Air from the fringe is stirred into the interiors of the new anticyclones and vice versa. Instabilities of this and other types occur quite frequently. Our study emphasises their paramountcy for the trace gas composition of the ASMA and its outflow into regions around the world.

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