Measuring Tornado Warning Reception, Comprehension, and Response in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Wesley W. Wehde ◽  
Jinan N. Allan ◽  
Carol Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Source Code ◽  
The United States ◽  
Psychometric Tests ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Significant Development ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Information Domain

Abstract Social criteria are important to achieving the mission of the National Weather Service. Accordingly, researchers and administrators at the NWS increasingly recognize a need to supplement verification statistics with complementary data about society in performance management and evaluation. This will require significant development of new capacities to both conceptualize relevant criteria and measure them using consistent, transparent, replicable, and reliable measures that permit generalizable inference to populations of interest. In this study, we contribute to this development by suggesting three criteria that require measurement (forecast and warning reception, comprehension, and response) and demonstrating a methodology that allows us to measure these concepts in a single information domain—tornado warnings. The methodology we employ improves upon previous research in multiple ways. It provides a more generalizable approach to measurement using a temporally consistent set of survey questions that are applicable across the United States; it relies on a more robust set of psychometric tests to analytically demonstrate the reliability of the measures; and it is more transparent and replicable than previous research because the data and methods (source code) are publicly available. In addition to describing and assessing the reliability of the measures, we explore the sensitivity of the measures to geographic and demographic variation to identify significant differences that require attention in measurement. We close by discussing the implications of this study and the next steps toward development and use of social criteria in performance management and evaluation.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public’s Perceptions of Weather Risks

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hoekstra ◽  
K. Klockow ◽  
R. Riley ◽  
J. Brotzge ◽  
H. Brooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Present System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Risks

Abstract Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (&gt;1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.

scholarly journals Cry Wolf Effect? Evaluating the Impact of False Alarms on Public Responses to Tornado Alerts in the Southeastern United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 549-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
JungKyu Rhys Lim ◽  
Brooke Fisher Liu ◽  
Michael Egnoto
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Impact

Abstract On average, 75% of tornado warnings in the United States are false alarms. Although forecasters have been concerned that false alarms may generate a complacent public, only a few research studies have examined how the public responds to tornado false alarms. Through four surveys (N = 4162), this study examines how residents in the southeastern United States understand, process, and respond to tornado false alarms. The study then compares social science research findings on perceptions of false alarms to actual county false alarm ratios and the number of tornado warnings issued by counties. Contrary to prior research, findings indicate that concerns about false alarm ratios generating a complacent public may be overblown. Results show that southeastern U.S. residents estimate tornado warnings to be more accurate than they are. Participants’ perceived false alarm ratios are not correlated with actual county false alarm ratios. Counterintuitively, the higher individuals perceive false alarm ratios and tornado alert accuracy to be, the more likely they are to take protective behavior such as sheltering in place in response to tornado warnings. Actual country false alarm ratios and the number of tornado warnings issued did not predict taking protective action.

The History (and Future) of Tornado Warning Dissemination in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (5) ◽  
pp. 567-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Coleman ◽  
Kevin R. Knupp ◽  
James Spann ◽  
J. B. Elliott ◽  
Brian E. Peters
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Specific Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Digital Television ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
The Public ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Radio Broadcast ◽  
The U.S

Since the successful tornado forecast at Tinker AFB in 1948 paved the way for the issuance of tornado warnings, the science of tornado detection and forecasting has advanced greatly. However, tornado warnings must be disseminated to the public to be of any use. The Texas tornado warning conferences in 1953 began to develop the framework for a modern tornado warning system and included radar detection of tornadoes, a spotter network, and improved communications between the U.S. Weather Bureau, spotters, and public officials, allowing more timely warnings and dissemination of those warnings to the public. Commercial radio and television are a main source of warnings for many, and the delivery methods on TV have changed much since 1960. NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) was launched after the 1974 Super Outbreak of tornadoes, with the most important feature being the tone alert that allowed receivers to alert people even when the radio broadcast was turned off. Today, NWR reaches most of the U.S. population, and Specific Area Message Encoding technology has improved its warning precision. Outdoor warning sirens, originally designed for use in enemy attack, were made available for use during tornado warnings around 1970. “Storm based” warnings, adopted by the National Weather Service in 2007, replaced countybased warnings and greatly reduce the warning area. As communications advances continue, tornado warnings will eventually be delivered to precise locations, using GPS and other location technology, through cellular telephones, outdoor sirens, e-mails, and digital television, in addition to NWR.

scholarly journals Do Performance Goals and Development, Feedback and Recognition, and a Climate of Trust Improve Employee Engagement in Small Businesses in the United States?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Tywanda D. Tate ◽  
Franklin M. Lartey ◽  
Phillip M. Randall
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Small Business ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Employee Engagement ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Performance Goals ◽  
Overall Performance

Small businesses are the predominant contributors to the U.S. economy, yet they face many challenges to remain competitive and sustainable. There are several reasons a small business could fail, including a lack of human resources, limited financial resources, competition, technological advancements, disaster, and globalization. Improving employee performance by getting them engaged and productive in their work is an issue that cannot be overlooked for small businesses to function and remain competitive. There is limited empirical evidence that explains the dimensions of performance management and employee engagement in small businesses. However, how small businesses sustain their long-term performance remains uncertain. This study sought to bring together two previously distinct constructs: overall employee engagement and overall performance management, characterized by performance goals and development, a climate of trust, and feedback and recognition. The research was correlational in nature. A survey was conducted to generate and analyze data gathered from 121 employees of small businesses located in the United States. A series of Pearson correlation analyses confirmed the existence of statistically significant positive relationships between employee engagement and each variable of performance management, namely performance goals and development, feedback and recognition, and climate of trust. Notwithstanding these positive correlations, a multiple regression model with the three performance management variables as independent variables and employee engagement as the dependent variable suggested that there was a statistically significant regression model F(3, 117) = 32.34, p &lt; .001, R2&nbsp;=&nbsp;.453, explaining 45.3% of the variability in employee engagement. Nonetheless, this model confirmed that the variables performance goals and development and climate of trust were not statistically significant in the model (p &gt; .05). In other words, only the feedback and recognition variable was statistically significant in the regression model, suggesting that it explained most of the variability in engagement, including that already explained by the other two variables. Overall, the outcome of this study suggests that small businesses implementing performance management processes have more engaged employees. The conclusions drawn from these findings suggest that overall performance management and overall employee engagement contribute to small business productivity and organizational success.

Analyzing Characteristics of the Unreliable Segments of the National Highway System across South Eastern States of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (7) ◽  
pp. 456-467
Author(s):  
Chowdhury Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Reference Category ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
National Highway ◽  
Highway System

The latest transportation law in the United States continues to put emphasis on a performance management approach similar to the previous one. Since the transportation performance management rules were made in 2017, limited work has been done to understand the travel time reliability on the national highway system (NHS) and the factors influencing it. This study contributes to the literature by analyzing the characteristics of the unreliable segments of the NHS in 13 south eastern states. It was observed that there was a higher percentage of unreliable segments in the non-Interstate NHS (about 34%) than in the Interstate system (about 13% of segments were unreliable). Analyses of the unreliability of the Interstate and non-Interstate NHS were conducted separately to understand each of them better. To capture the influence of the attributes on the reliability of the NHS segments, multivariate binary logistic models were developed. The results from the models suggest that the reference traffic message channels (TMCs), which were characterized by being in urban areas with shorter length (≤0.25 mi) and ≤10% trucks in the traffic stream, generally have a higher chance of being unreliable than those that are not in the reference category. Interstate TMCs on bridges, tunnels, or causeways, and those with directional traffic volume greater than 30,000, have higher chances of being unreliable than the reference category. The chances of internal TMCs (between decision points) in the non-Interstate NHS being unreliable were about 14% higher than the mean chance of the reference TMCs.

Interstate Speed Profiles

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (42) ◽  
pp. 57-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjing Pu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
National Average ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Average Speed ◽  
High Level

This paper draws the first set of high-level, national speed profiles for the entire Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways (Interstate system) in the United States based on the 2016 year-long National Performance Management Research Data Set (NPMRDS) and a conflated NPMRDS-HPMS (Highway Performance Monitoring System) geospatial network. This set of quantitative profiles include: ( a) national average speeds of 2016, ( b) national average speed time of day variations, ( c) national average speed day of week variations, ( d) national average speed seasonal variations, and ( e) state average speed and travel time distributions in peak hours. This work demonstrates that the integration of the private sector’s emerging big travel-time data and the public sector’s HPMS has provided a powerful resource to monitor travel-time-related performance of the nation’s highways. As the United States is transforming the Federal-aid Highway Program into a performance-based program with enhanced accountability and transparency, this integrated resource will help states and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to monitor their performance and progress towards achieving targets, and enable the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) not only to draw high-level national highway performance profiles but also to pinpoint the exact where, when, and how much the challenges are.

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