Oceanic Influence on Seasonal Malaria Incidence in West Africa.

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Malaria Model ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Climate variability is a key factor in driving malaria outbreaks. As shown in previous studies, climate-driven malaria modeling provides a better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics, generating malaria-related parameters validated as a reliable benchmark to assess the impact of climate on malaria. In this framework, the present study uses climate observations and reanalysis products to evaluate the predictability of malaria incidence in West Africa. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are shown as a skillful predictor of malaria incidence, which is derived from climate-driven simulations with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). Using the S4CAST tool, we find robust modes of anomalous SST variability associated with skillful predictability of malaria incidence Accordingly, significant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins are related to a significant response of malaria incidence over West Africa. For the Mediterranean Sea, warm (cold) SST anomalies are responsible for increased (decreased) surface air temperatures and precipitation over West Africa, resulting in higher (lower) malaria incidence. Our results put forward the key role of SST variability as a source of predictability of malaria incidence, being of paramount interest to decision-makers who plan public health measures against malaria in West Africa. Accordingly, SST anomalies could be used operationally to forecast malaria risk over West Africa for early warning systems.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Using a Dynamic Mosquito-Human Malaria Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gbenga J. Abiodun ◽  
Peter J. Witbooi ◽  
Kazeem O. Okosun ◽  
Rajendra Maharaj
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Human Malaria ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wavelet Coherence Analysis ◽  
Malaria Model

Introduction: The reasons for malaria resurgence mostly in Africa are yet to be well understood. Although the causes are often linked to regional climate change, it is important to understand the impact of climate variability on the dynamics of the disease. However, this is almost impossible without adequate long-term malaria data over the study areas. Methods: In this study, we develop a climate-based mosquito-human malaria model to study malaria dynamics in the human population over KwaZulu-Natal, one of the epidemic provinces in South Africa, from 1970-2005. We compare the model output with available observed monthly malaria cases over the province from September 1999 to December 2003. We further use the model outputs to explore the relationship between the climate variables (rainfall and temperature) and malaria incidence over the province using principal component analysis, wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence analysis. The model produces a reasonable fit with the observed data and in particular, it captures all the spikes in malaria prevalence. Results: Our results highlight the importance of climate factors on malaria transmission and show the seasonality of malaria epidemics over the province. Results from the principal component analyses further suggest that, there are two principal factors associated with climates variables and the model outputs. One of the factors indicate high loadings on Susceptible, Exposed and Infected human, while the other is more correlated with Susceptible and Recovered humans. However, both factors reveal the inverse correlation between Susceptible-Infected and Susceptible-Recovered humans respectively. Through the spectrum analysis, we notice a strong annual cycle of malaria incidence over the province and ascertain a dominant of one year periodicity. Consequently, our findings indicate that an average of 0 to 120-day lag is generally noted over the study period, but the 120-day lag is more associated with temperature than rainfall. This is consistence with other results obtained from our analyses that malaria transmission is more tightly coupled with temperature than with rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal province.

Enhancing radical innovation performance through intellectual capital components

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 789-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara Agostini ◽  
Anna Nosella
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Radical Innovation ◽  
Innovation Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Ic Testing ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose In today’s knowledge economy the ability to innovate and develop new products is a key factor to sustain firm performance. Within this context, analysing the role of different components of intellectual capital (IC) becomes of foremost importance, as well as an under-investigated issue for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of human, organisational and relational capital (RC) on radical innovation performance (RIP), as well as to examine whether organisational capital (OC) and RC mediate the relationship between human capital (HC) and RIP and whether OC moderates the relationship between RC and RIP. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of a factor analysis and different regression models to test for mediation and moderation. The analyses are carried out on a sample of 150 micro firms and SMEs involved in the production of machinery or instruments and located in Italy. Findings Results show that HC is directly associated to RIP, as well as OC and RC that totally mediate the relationship between HC and RIP. Moreover, OC positively moderates the relationship between RC and RIP. Originality/value This study is particularly interesting because it adopts an overarching perspective on IC testing the interplay between the different components of IC. In addition, it focusses on the SME context which is under-investigated as far as IC and performance measurement is concerned.

scholarly journals Internal R&D and Acquisition Performance of Chinese Pharmaceutical Firms: Moderation Effect of Acquisition Motive and Corporate Ownership

Processes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Yue ◽  
Xing Hua ◽  
Jianyuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Corporate Ownership ◽  
Acquisition Performance ◽  
Moderation Effect ◽  
Pharmaceutical Firms ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Although corporate capability has been recognized as a key factor affecting corporate acquisition performance, the role of R&D capability in acquisition performance has not been fully explained. The aim of this paper was to research the impact of internal R&D on acquisition performance according to a sample of 215 acquisitions of Chinese listed pharmaceutical companies from 2012 to 2016. First, it was found that R&D has a significant negative effect on acquisition performance. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the acquisition motive and the ownership of the acquiring firm have a moderating effect on the relationship between R&D and acquisition performance. Compared to non-technical acquisitions, the negative effect of internal R&D on acquisition performance was reduced for technical acquisitions. Compared with non-state-owned-enterprise acquisition, the negative effect of internal R&D on the acquisition performance of state-owned enterprises was weakened. Our study enriches the research of the path dependence theory on the acquisition performance of enterprises and also the interpretation of acquisition performance on the basis of internal and external innovation and the institutional theory.

scholarly journals Altruism born of suffering among emerging adults in Northern Ireland

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura K. Taylor ◽  
Jeffrey R. Hanna
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Emerging Adults ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediation Analyses ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Group Identities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Perceived Harm ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore altruism born of suffering (ABS), a theory that explains how the experience of suffering within one’s own life may result in the motivation to help others, even outgroup members. Design/methodology/approach Participants were 186 emerging adults (63 per cent female, 37 per cent male; 69 per cent Protestant, 41 per cent Catholic; average age =21.3, SD=2.57 years old) in Northern Ireland, a setting of protracted intergroup conflict. Participants were randomly assigned to an in/outgroup condition, read four types of adversity that occurred to same-sex victim(s), and indicated their empathetic response and how much they would like to help the victims. Findings Moderated mediation analyses revealed that empathy for the victim partially mediated the impact of perceived harm on desire to help; moreover, recent negative life events strengthened the link between harm and empathy. The path between empathy and helping was stronger in the outgroup compared to the ingroup condition. Practical implications These findings support ABS, highlighting empathy as a key factor underlying more constructive intergroup relations in a divided society. Originality/value This paper extends previous research on ABS by focusing on a post-accord context. The value of the current analyses demonstrate the important role of fostering empathy to promote outgroup helping in settings of divisive group identities.

scholarly journals Observation of the Diurnal Cycle in the Low Troposphere of West Africa

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (9) ◽  
pp. 3477-3500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Lothon ◽  
Frédérique Saïd ◽  
Fabienne Lohou ◽  
Bernard Campistron
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Nocturnal Jet ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Made In

Abstract The authors give an overview of the diurnal cycle of the low troposphere during 2006 at two different sites, Niamey (Niger) and Nangatchori (Benin). This study is partly based on the first observations of UHF wind profilers ever made in West Africa in the context of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Also used are the radiosoundings made in Niamey and ground station observations at Nangatchori, which allow for the study of the impact of the dynamics on the water vapor cycle and the turbulence observed at the ground. Profiler measurements revealed a very consistent year-round nocturnal low-level jet maximal around 0500 UTC and centered at 400-m above the ground, with wind speed around 15 m s−1. This jet comes either from the northeast during the dry season or from the southwest during the wet season, in relation with the position of the intertropical discontinuity. The radiosoundings made in Niamey highlight both the role of the nocturnal jet in bringing water vapor from the south during the night when the intertropical discontinuity has reached the vicinity of the considered area at the end of the dry season and the role of the daytime planetary boundary layer in mixing this water vapor within a larger depth of the troposphere. The planetary boundary layer processes play a large role in the diurnal cycle of the position of the intertropical discontinuity itself. The observations of turbulence made at the ground in Nangatchori showed that the best signature of the nocturnal jet close to surface can be seen in the turbulent kinetic energy and skewness of the air vertical velocity, rather than on the mean wind itself. They reveal the downward transport of momentum from the jet core aloft to the surface.

scholarly journals In the name of the father? Fertility, religion and child naming in the demographic transition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dylan Connor
Keyword(s):  
Married Couples ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Religious Influences ◽  
High Fertility Rate ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Impact

This article shows that parents reveal information about their fertility behavior through how they name their children. I arrive at this finding from detailed examination of the net fertility of 130,000 married couples in Ireland circa 1910, a country known for its historically high fertility rate. After stringently accounting for the occupation, religion and location of couples, I find higher fertility rates among couples who chose distinctly Catholic names and traditional names for their children, with the latter being particularly important. Exposure to towns and cities lowered net fertility and weakened preferences for traditional and Catholic names. Cumulatively, these findings highlight the role of traditional rural norms over explicitly religious influences in driving high fertility rates in Ireland. The impact of towns and cities in reducing net fertility suggests that Ireland’s sluggish urbanization was a key factor in its high historical fertility rate.

Grey relational evaluation of impact and control of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tawiah Kwatekwei Quartey-Papafio ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Sara Javed
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent States ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grey Relational ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The rise in malaria deaths discloses a decline of global malaria eradication that shows that control measures and fund distribution have missed its right of way. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study and evaluate the impact and control of malaria on the independent states of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region over the time period of 2010–2017 using Deng’s Grey incidence analysis, absolute degree GIA and second synthetic degree GIA model. Design/methodology/approach The purposive data sampling is a secondary data from World Developmental Indicators indicating the incidence of new malaria cases (per 1,000 population at risk) for 45 independent states in SSA. GIA models were applied on array sequences into a single relational grade for ranking to be obtained and analyzed to evaluate trend over a predicted period. Findings Grey relational analysis classifies West Africa as the highly infectious region of malaria incidence having Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Benin, Liberia and Gambia suffering severely. Also, results indicate Southern Africa to be the least of all affected in the African belt that includes Eswatini, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa and Mozambique. But, predictions revealed that the infection rate is expected to fall in West Africa, whereas the least vulnerable countries will experience a rise in malaria incidence through to the next ten years. Therefore, this study draws the attention of all stakeholders and interest groups to adopt effective policies to fight malaria. Originality/value The study is a pioneer to unravel the most vulnerable countries in the SSA region as far as the incidence of new malaria cases is a concern through the use of second synthetic GIA model. The outcome of the study is substantial to direct research funds to control and eliminate malaria.

Developing Strategic Leadership in the Indian Context

2018 ◽  
pp. 224-235
Author(s):  
Minisha Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Style ◽  
Strategic Leadership ◽  
Positive Wave ◽  
Organizational Creativity ◽  
Competitive Edge ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Strategic Leaders ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Creativity And Innovation

With intense competition, it has become quite challenging for organizations to continuously create and innovate. Since leadership has been identified as an effective key factor in attaining sustainable competitive edge, there remains a lack of research to assess the role of leadership most likely to cause creativity and innovation. This chapter tries to conceptualize the impact of developing strategic leadership in Indian organizations. This has a significant impact on organizational creativity and innovation. Firms facing recession need to develop their leaders as strategic leaders who can generate a positive wave in the organization, provide direction to employees, generate genuine interest among employees to learn and grow. Strategic leaders develop commitment among employees by providing a vision and goal to them. They think strategically and frame policies as per employees' needs and expectations. This study demonstrates the impact of strategic leadership style to generate creativity and innovation among their subordinates.

scholarly journals Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4034-4060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Michela Biasutti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
West African ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

scholarly journals The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (21) ◽  
pp. 8657-8671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick D. Broxton ◽  
Xubin Zeng ◽  
Nicholas Dawson
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
The Impact

Across much of the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Forecast System forecasts made earlier in the winter (e.g., on 1 January) are found to have more snow water equivalent (SWE) in April–June than forecasts made later (e.g., on 1 April); furthermore, later forecasts tend to predict earlier snowmelt than earlier forecasts. As a result, other forecasted model quantities (e.g., soil moisture in April–June) show systematic differences dependent on the forecast lead time. Notably, earlier forecasts predict much colder near-surface air temperatures in April–June than later forecasts. Although the later forecasts of temperature are more accurate, earlier forecasts of SWE are more realistic, suggesting that the improvement in temperature forecasts occurs for the wrong reasons. Thus, this study highlights the need to improve atmospheric processes in the model (e.g., radiative transfer, turbulence) that would cause cold biases when a more realistic amount of snow is on the ground. Furthermore, SWE differences in earlier versus later forecasts are found to much more strongly affect April–June temperature forecasts than the sea surface temperature differences over different regions, suggesting the major role of snowpack in seasonal prediction during the spring–summer transition over snowy regions.

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