scholarly journals The Recovery from the Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion

2021 ◽  
Vol 695 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-48
Author(s):  
Jay C. Shambaugh ◽  
Michael R. Strain
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Real Wage ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle

Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States’ economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the Great Depression. A slow and steady recovery followed the Great Recession’s official end in summer 2009, but because it was slow and the depth of the recession so deep, it took years to reduce slack in labor markets. But because the recovery lasted so long, many pre-recession peaks were exceeded, and eventually real wage growth accumulated for workers across the distribution. In fact, the business cycle (including recession and recovery) beginning in December 2007 was one of the better periods of real wage growth in many decades, with the bulk of that coming in the last years of the recovery.

Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 236-240
Author(s):  
Jessamyn Schaller ◽  
Price Fishback ◽  
Kelli Marquardt
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Data Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Entire Sample ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Per Capita

This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937-2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960-1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

scholarly journals Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses—and Misuses—of History

2015 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per H. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Successful Search ◽  
Similarities And Differences

Barry Eichengreen's new bookHall of Mirrorsis a detailed, excellent, and somewhat pessimistic comparison of the two most serious financial crises ever—their causes, development, and consequences. Readers well versed in the comprehensive literature on the Great Depression and the Great Recession in the United States and Europe will not find much information inHall of Mirrorsthat is completely new, but most others will. Whatisnew is the comparative approach: the detailed and analytically successful search for similarities and differences between the Great Depression and the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Moving to a Job: The Role of Home Equity, Debt, and Access to Credit

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Demyanyk ◽  
Dmytro Hryshko ◽  
María Jose Luengo-Prado ◽  
Bent E. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Home Equity ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Significant Barrier ◽  
Out Of Area

We use individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level mortgage data to estimate how home equity interacted with mobility in relatively weak and strong labor markets in the United States during the Great Recession. We construct a dynamic model of housing, consumption, employment, and relocation, which provides a structural interpretation of our empirical results and allows us to explore the role that foreclosure played in labor mobility. We find that negative home equity is not a significant barrier to job-related mobility because the benefits of accepting an out-of-area job outweigh the costs of moving. This pattern holds even if homeowners are not able to default on their mortgages. (JEL D14, G01, J61, R23, R31)

scholarly journals Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E Hall
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
History Of ◽  
Low Levels

The worst financial crisis in the history of the United States and many other countries started in 1929. The Great Depression followed. The second-worst struck in the fall of 2008 and the Great Recession followed. Commentators have dwelt endlessly on the causes of these and other deep financial collapses. This article pursues modern answers to a different question: why does output and employment collapse after a financial crisis and remain at low levels for several or many years after the crisis. It focuses on events in the United States since 2008. Existing macroeconomic models account successfully for the immediate effects of a financial crisis on output and employment. I will lay out a simple macro model that captures the most important features of modern models and show that realistic increases in financial frictions that occurred in the crisis of late 2008 will generate declines in real GDP and employment of the magnitude that occurred. But this model cannot explain why GDP and employment failed to recover once the financial crisis subsided—the model implies a recovery as soon as financial frictions return to normal. At the end of the article, I will mention some ideas that are in play to explain the persistent adverse effects of temporary crises, but have yet to be incorporated into the mainstream model.

scholarly journals Schooling During the Great Recession: Patterns of School Spending and Student Achievement Using Population Data

AERA Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 233285841987743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Shores ◽  
Matthew P. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
Student Achievement ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
English Language ◽  
Population Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Education Data ◽  
Using Data

The Great Recession was the most severe economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression. Using data from the Stanford Education Data Archive (SEDA), we describe the patterns of math and English language arts (ELA) achievement for students attending schools in communities differentially affected by recession-induced employment shocks. Employing a difference-in-differences strategy that leverages both cross-county variation in the economic shock of the recession and within-county, cross-cohort variation in school-age years of exposure to the recession, we find that declines in student math and ELA achievement were greater for cohorts of students attending school during the Great Recession in communities most adversely affected by recession-induced employment shocks, relative to cohorts of students that entered school after the recession had officially ended. Moreover, declines in student achievement were larger in school districts serving more economically disadvantaged and minority students. We conclude by discussing potential policy responses.

scholarly journals Industrial Composition, Methods of Compensation and Real Earnings in the Great Depression

2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. R17-R29
Author(s):  
Robert A. Hart ◽  
J. Elizabeth Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Industrial Composition ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Composition Methods ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Compare And Contrast

A major objective of the government during the Great Recession has been severely to restrict public sector real wage growth. One potential advantage of performance-related pay schemes is that they naturally offer greater wage responsiveness to fluctuations in the business cycle. Based on evidence from engineering and allied industries during the Great Depression we show that piecework wages exhibited more flexibility than their timework equivalents. We compare and contrast southern/midland engineering districts of Britain with northern districts. The former region was dominated by piece-rated workers and by modern sections of the industry, such as vehicle and aircraft manufacture. Time-rated work predominated in northern districts where older sections – for example, marine and textile engineering – were clustered‥

scholarly journals Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Seltzer
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Restricted Use ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the U.S., characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forego childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFR) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the period between 2006-2014. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition – specifically, the loss of manufacturing and construction businesses – have a larger effect on TFR than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles, further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

scholarly journals The Great Recession’s Effect on Entrepreneurship

2011 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Scott Shane
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression

Between December 2007 and June 2009, the United States suffered its biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression. Dubbed the Great Recession, this economic contraction saw gross domestic product decline 4 percent and the unemployment rate more than double from 4.9 percent to 10.1 percent.

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