Armed Conflicts, Conflict Termination and Peace Agreements, 1989-96

1997 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Wallensteen ◽  
Margareta Sollenberg
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Conflict Termination

scholarly journals Peace agreements in armed conflicts: focusing on finding a solution to the conflict incompatibility

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
S. Hogbladh
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Dyadic Relationship ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Conflict Termination

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Peace Agreement Dataset was first published in 2006. Its main goal was to provide the research community with a dataset on peace agreements that was not linked to conflict termination, i. e. included both successful and failed agreements. The latest update of the dataset includes 355 peace agreements concluded in the 1975–2018 period. A number of studies have been based on the dataset over the years. The dataset is unique in its strict connection to the UCDP conflict data and in its focus on the conflict dyad, actors, and the conflict incompatibility. The dataset’s focus on only those agreements that involve the dyadic relationship between primary warring parties – between governments and rebel groups or between two governments – has direct policy implications, as it is exactly these parties who need to change their stances on incompatibilities in order to solve a conflict. Also, the Peace Agreement Dataset’s focus on agreements that address the key incompatibilities contested by the parties allow it to distinguish peace agreements on other negotiated deals, including ceasefires, and to differentiate between full, partial and peace process agreements. Finally, the analysis of key trends in peace agreements is presented. It shows that in contrast to the previous historical peak in the number of armed conflicts back in the early 1990s that corresponded to the peak in annual numbers of peace agreements, the new peak in annual numbers of armed conflicts in the late 2010s was not matched by a similar rise in peace agreements.

scholarly journals Women, peace and international security: the Havana Agreement for peace in Colombia

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-90
Author(s):  
Elena DE OLIVEIRA SCHUCK ◽  
Lívia BRITO
Keyword(s):  
International Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
The Government

Armed conflicts have different impacts on women. In this regard, women’s civil society organizations are inserted in the international political arenas in order to guarantee their rights in warfare contexts. In the case of conflicts in Colombia, women are identified not only as combatants and victims, but also as members of women civil organizations for peacebuilding. These organizations played a prominent role in the elaboration of the peace agreement between the Government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Havana, Cuba, between 2012 and 2016. This article proposes an analysis of the theoretical production on peace, international security, feminism and subalternity, to present the specific case of the conflict in Colombia and its gender perspectives. The results indicate that peace agreements can be instruments of political inclusion and reparation for women affected by armed conflicts. In highlighting the role of political minorities in the international peace negotiations in Colombia, this research contributes to the development and expansion of critical perspectives —feminist and subaltern— on international security and studies for peace. Moreover, building upon the specific analysis of the Havana Agreement, this paper aims to contribute to the inclusion of a gender perspective in future peace agreements.

scholarly journals Spoilers of peace: Pro-government militias as risk factors for conflict recurrence

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph V Steinert ◽  
Janina I Steinert ◽  
Sabine C Carey
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Simulation ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Material Benefits ◽  
The Government ◽  
Personal Interests

This study investigates how deployment of pro-government militias (PGMs) as counterinsurgents affects the risk of conflict recurrence. Militiamen derive material and non-material benefits from fighting in armed conflicts. Since these will likely have diminished after the conflict’s termination, militiamen develop a strong incentive to spoil post-conflict peace. Members of pro-government militias are particularly disadvantaged in post-conflict contexts compared to their role in the government’s counterinsurgency campaign. First, PGMs are usually not present in peace negotiations between rebels and governments. This reduces their commitment to peace agreements. Second, disarmament and reintegration programs tend to exclude PGMs, which lowers their expected and real benefits from peace. Third, PGMs might lose their advantage of pursuing personal interests while being protected by the government, as they become less essential during peacetimes. To empirically test whether conflicts with PGMs as counterinsurgents are more likely to break out again, we identify PGM counterinsurgent activities in conflict episodes between 1981 and 2007. We code whether the same PGM was active in a subsequent conflict between the same actors. Controlling for conflict types, which is associated with both the likelihood of deploying PGMs and the risk of conflict recurrence, we investigate our claims with propensity score matching, statistical simulation, and logistic regression models. The results support our expectation that conflicts in which pro-government militias were used as counterinsurgents are more likely to recur. Our study contributes to an improved understanding of the long-term consequences of employing PGMs as counterinsurgents and highlights the importance of considering non-state actors when crafting peace and evaluating the risk of renewed violence.

Deals with the Devil? Conflict Amnesties, Civil War, and Sustainable Peace

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 387-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff Dancy
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Bargaining Theory ◽  
Data Set ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Negotiated Settlements ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Sustainable Peace ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
Conflict Termination ◽  
The Devil

AbstractDo legal amnesties for combatants help end civil wars? International policy experts often take it for granted that amnesties promote negotiated settlements with rebels. However, a large number of amnesties are followed by continued fighting or a return to the battlefield. What, then, are the factors that make amnesties effective or ineffective? In this article I use a disaggregated data set of all amnesties enacted in the context of internal war since 1946 to evaluate a bargaining theory of amnesties and peace. Testing hypotheses about conflict patterns using models that account for selection, I find that (1) only amnesties passed following conflict termination help resolve civil wars, (2) amnesties are more effective when they are embedded in peace agreements, and (3) amnesties that grant immunity for serious rights violations have no observable pacifying effects. These policy-relevant findings represent a new breakthrough in an ossified “peace versus justice” debate pitting security specialists against global human rights advocates.

scholarly journals Talks before the talks: Effects of pre-negotiation on reaching peace agreements in intrastate armed conflicts, 2005–15

2020 ◽  
pp. 002234332096115
Author(s):  
Lindsey Doyle ◽  
Lukas Hegele
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
The Way

Pre-negotiation is widely accepted as a means to convince intrastate conflict parties to negotiate formally; however, research has not yet established a causal link between early efforts to bring warring parties together and the outcome of any negotiated settlement. This gap begs the question: To what extent do activities during the pre-negotiation phase contribute to the signing of a peace agreement? Theory on interstate conflict suggests that pre-negotiation reduces risk, thereby convincing conflict parties that they have more to gain from negotiating than from fighting. However, in conflicts between governments and non-state armed actors, this article argues that reciprocity paves the way for reaching peace agreements. This article introduces a new dataset on pre-negotiation including nearly all intrastate armed conflicts between 2005 and 2015. Confirming previous findings, mediation is significantly and positively correlated with reaching a type of peace agreement; conflicts over government are more likely to end in a negotiated agreement than conflicts over territory or both government and territory. In contrast to existing qualitative research, this study finds little evidence that pre-negotiation increases the likelihood that conflict dyads sign peace agreements. Future quantitative research on this topic requires more nuanced measures of the conditions under which conflict parties shift from unilateral to joint decisionmaking.

The plight of indigenous peoples within the context of conflict mediation, peace talks and human rights in Mindanao, the Philippines

Thesis Eleven ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 145 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sedfrey M. Candelaria
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Peace Initiatives ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Philippine Government

Republic Act 8371 or the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act of 1997 (IPRA) was passed by the Philippine Congress in order to address the concerns of the indigenous communities which had received marginal attention through the past decades. Indigenous communities have also been displaced from their lands due to armed conflicts between government soldiers and secessionist groups, particularly the Moro rebels and the communist-led New Peoples’ Army. The Philippines has been privy to peace initiatives with these two groups for some time now. Political circumstances, however, and legal impediments have periodically stalled the peace processes. It is the author’s intention to focus on the predicament of indigenous communities as they seek a strategic role in shaping the content of peace agreements being negotiated by the Philippine government with the rebel groups. How have the indigenous communities made an impression on the two peace processes through the years? And, have the indigenous peoples’ rights been sufficiently protected in the context of the peace agreements? The author will draw from his own insights on the peace processes and agreements which have been negotiated and even tested before the Supreme Court of the Philippines.

The rise of rebel contenders

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 551-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanne Fjelde ◽  
Desirée Nilsson
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Barriers To Entry ◽  
Structural Barriers ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Windows Of Opportunity ◽  
Ethnic Networks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Movements ◽  
Conflict Termination

Fragmentation of armed opposition movements through the rise of new rebel groups constitutes a significant challenge to conflict termination and peacebuilding. Yet, the question of why some rebel movements remain cohesive whereas others see a number of contending groups during the course of the armed conflict has received limited attention in existing research. This article addresses this gap by analyzing the determinants of the rise of rebel contenders in intrastate armed conflicts worldwide, 1975–2013. The theoretical framework focuses on barriers to entry, that is, variations in the costs and disadvantages that must be borne by nascent rebel contenders that are not borne to the same extent by incumbent rebel groups. The study proposes that strong social networks underpinning incumbent groups create structural barriers to entry for nascent groups by aggravating challenges of organization building. It further suggests that the interaction between incumbent groups and the government influences strategic barriers to entry as changes in government policies produce windows of opportunity for nascent groups to form. Consistent with these arguments, the study finds that when incumbent groups have strong networks – because rebels either tap into ethnic networks or draw on a leftist ideology – the risk of fragmentation is lower. Furthermore, when the government accommodates groups, through either negotiations or democratic concessions, the risk of fragmentation increases.

scholarly journals Organized violence, 1989–2018 and peace agreements

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Therése Pettersson ◽  
Stina Högbladh ◽  
Magnus Öberg
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Organized Violence ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
General Decline ◽  
The World ◽  
Data Program ◽  
High Level ◽  
Similar Peak

This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.

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