Counter-cyclical Voting in the United Kingdom

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1040-1058
Author(s):  
Abel Bojar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Vote Intention

By extending the time-tested reward–punishment hypothesis in economic voting, this article argues that rational voters hold incumbents accountable for the macroeconomic policies they pursue rather than purely for the economic climate that prevails under their tenure. Building on this premise, I first put forward a theory where business cycle fluctuations realign relative fiscal preferences among income groups. This theory’s implications predict that the aggregate electoral response to fiscal decisions evolves in a counter-cyclical fashion. Using quarterly measures of vote intention shares of incumbent parties in the United Kingdom, I provide time-series evidence from a set of error correction models supporting this proposition: at times of low unemployment, the electorate punishes profligate incumbents; in deteriorating labour market conditions, however, they reward expansionary policies. The immediate electoral impact is non-significant across the models, and most of the estimated effect is spread out across subsequent quarters.

scholarly journals Climate effects on the onset of flowering in the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Fox ◽  
Anna Maria Jönsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Event ◽  
Negative Response ◽  
Wild Plant ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
The United Kingdom

Abstract Background A warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering. In this study, we analyse the effects of the long-term climate change and an extreme weather event on the first flowering day (FFD) of five spring-flowering wild plant species in the United Kingdom. Citizen science data from the UK Woodland Trust were obtained for five species: Tussilago farfara (coltsfoot), Anemone nemorosa (wood anemone), Hyacinthoides non-scripta (bluebell), Cardamine pratensis (cuckooflower) and Alliaria petiolate (garlic mustard). Results Out of the 351 site-specific time series (≥ 15-years of FFD records), 74.6% showed significant negative response rates, i.e. earlier flowering in warmer years, ranging from − 5.6 to − 7.7 days °C−1. 23.7% of the series had non-significant negative response rates, and 1.7% had non-significant positive response rates. For cuckooflower, the response rate was increasingly more negative with decreasing latitudes. The winter of 2007 reflects an extreme weather event, about 2 °C warmer compared to 2006, where the 2006 winter temperatures were similar to the 1961–1990 baseline average. The FFD of each species was compared between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the mean FFD of all species significantly advanced between 13 and 18 days during the extreme warmer winter of 2007, confirming that FFD is affected by temperature. Conclusion Given that all species in the study significantly respond to ambient near-surface temperatures, they are suitable as climate-change indicators. However, the responses to a + 2 °C warmer winter were both more and less pronounced than expected from an analysis of ≥ 15-year time series. This may reflect non-linear responses, species-specific thresholds and cumulative temperature effects. It also indicates that knowledge on extreme weather events is needed for detailed projections of potential climate change effects.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

A Forecasting Model for the United Kingdom Invisible Account

1974 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 58-76
Author(s):  
P. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Freight Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Invisible

The National Institute has for some time prepared and published regular forecasts for periods up to 18 months ahead of the United Kingdom's balance of payments on the invisible items in the current account as well as visible trade. The results for the invisible items have compared fairly well with those for visible trade, perhaps because the latter have until recently been the more irregular and difficult to predict. Moreover the very stability of the invisible balance during the 1960s suggests that either many of the items involved are comparatively insensitive to changes in the general economic climate or the effects of such changes were largely offsetting. In neither case could regression analysis be expected to give wholly satisfactory results, particularly in view of the poor quality of some of the data. Nevertheless it seemed worth while to see whether some of the invisible items could with advantage be predicted by formal methods rather than, as in the past, by assessing current trends and making purely ad hoc allowances for such factors as the likely course of shipping freight rates, oil prices and the level of economic activity in the United Kingdom and overseas.

The Effect of Universal Decolonization With Screening in Critical Care to Reduce MRSA Across an Entire Hospital

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 430-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig W. Bradley ◽  
Martyn A. C. Wilkinson ◽  
Mark I. Garvey
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Kernel Regression ◽  
Break Point ◽  
University Hospitals ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Break Points

OBJECTIVETo describe the effect of universal methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) decolonization therapy in a large intensive care unit (ICU) on the rates of MRSA cases and acquisitions in a UK hospital.DESIGNDescriptive study.SETTINGUniversity Hospitals Birmingham (UHB) NHS Foundation Trust is a tertiary referral teaching hospital in Birmingham, United Kingdom, that provides clinical services to nearly 1 million patients every year.METHODSA break-point time series analysis and kernel regression models were used to detect significant changes in the cumulative monthly numbers of MRSA bacteremia cases and acquisitions from April 2013 to August 2016 across the UHB system.RESULTSPrior to 2014, all ICU patients at UHB received universal MRSA decolonization therapy. In August 2014, UHB discontinued the use of universal decolonization due to published reports in the United Kingdom detailing the limited usefulness and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention. Break-point time series analysis of MRSA acquisition and bacteremia data indicated that break points were associated with the discontinuation and subsequent reintroduction of universal decolonization. Kernel regression models indicated a significant increase (P<.001) in MRSA acquisitions and bacteremia cases across UHB during the period without universal decolonization.CONCLUSIONWe suggest that routine decolonization for MRSA in a large ICU setting is an effective strategy to reduce the spread and incidence of MRSA across the whole hospital.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:430–435

scholarly journals Prest v Petrodel Resources Limited: The Veil Finally Pierced?

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Mohammad El-Gendi
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Company Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
Piercing The Corporate Veil ◽  
The Veil ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

With the United Kingdom preparing to exit the European Union, the UK needs to create a clear case for why the UK should be the preferred place of business. Unclear, arbitrary and unprincipled laws and rulings may cause businesses to move to the EU post-Brexit. As such, it is necessary to reassess certain key case and areas of law in order to address their suitability for the new economic climate. The chosen area is company law, specifically piercing the corporate veil, which has someway yet to be ready to demonstrate the best case for UK business.

scholarly journals Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Bijak ◽  
George Disney ◽  
Allan M. Findlay ◽  
Jonathan J. Forster ◽  
Peter W.F. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
The United Kingdom

scholarly journals How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Piketty ◽  
Emmanuel Saez
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Tax Progressivity ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
The U.S

This paper provides estimates of federal tax rates by income groups in the United States since 1960, with special emphasis on very top income groups. We include individual and corporate income taxes, payroll taxes, and estate and gift taxes. The progressivity of the U.S. federal tax system at the top of the income distribution has declined dramatically since the 1960s. This dramatic drop in progressivity is due primarily to a drop in corporate taxes and in estate and gift taxes combined with a sharp change in the composition of top incomes away from capital income and toward labor income. The sharp drop in statutory top marginal individual income tax rates has contributed only moderately to the decline in tax progressivity. International comparisons confirm that is it critical to take into account other taxes than the individual income tax to properly assess the extent of overall tax progressivity, both for time trends and for cross-country comparisons. The pattern for the United Kingdom is similar to the U.S. pattern. France had less progressive taxes than the United States or the United Kingdom in 1970 but has experienced an increase in tax progressivity and has now a more progressive tax system than the United States or the United Kingdom.

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