A Preferences-Based Approach to Subjective Probability Estimation

2013 ◽  
pp. 146-160
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Programming ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Measurement Theory ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference

Following the ideas of professor Raiffa, we can have the same attitude toward the subjective probabilities as with the objective probabilities, and we can use them freely in the theoretical constructions of the von Newman Utility theory. This is the subject of the chapter, evaluation of the subjective probability with the use of the stochastic programming. The probability is measured in an absolute scale in the context of the probability and measurement theory. Because of this, we can use the gambling approach to estimate the DM’s subjective probability as in the utility evaluations. Once again the authors solve the problem of best separation by using stochastic methods of the sets Au* and Bu*, (Au*nBu*)?Ø)). The difference with the previous chapter is that now they seek the existence of number (p), and not of function. This makes the problem easier to solve. However, the question remains the same, elimination of errors and uncertainty, and the way this is achieved in the stochastic programming.

scholarly journals Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 003685042110096
Author(s):  
Mohammed A AlKhars
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
The State ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Space Partitioning ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Common Technique ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
Partition Dependence

A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events. However, such subjective probabilities estimations are usually subjected to a bias known as the partition dependence bias. This study aims to investigate the effect of state space partitioning and the level of knowledge on subjective probability estimations. The state space is partitioned into full, collapsed, and pruned trees, while the knowledge is manipulated into low and high levels. A scenario called “Best Bank Award” was developed and a 2 × 3 experimental design was employed to explore the effect of the level of knowledge and the partitioning of the state space on the subjective probability. A total of 627 professionals participated in the study and 543 valid responses were used for analysis. The results of two-way ANOVA with the Tukey HSD test for post hoc analysis indicate a mean probability of 24.2% for the full tree, which is significantly lower than those of the collapsed (35.7%) as well as pruned (36.3%) trees. Moreover, there is significant difference in the mean probabilities between the low (38.1%) and high (24.9%) knowledge levels. The results support the hypotheses that the partitioning of the state space as well as the level of knowledge affects subjective probability estimation. The study demonstrates that regardless of the level of knowledge, the partition dependence bias is robust. However, the subjective probability accuracy improves with more knowledge.

A Regression Model of Subjective Probability

1999 ◽  
Vol 84 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Dixon ◽  
Immaculada B. Aban ◽  
Linda J. Hayes ◽  
Scott Harrington
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Slot Machine ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Cognitive Representation

The present study was conducted to examine if the cognitive representation of subjective probability could be better objectified. Subjects were required to play a commercial slot machine and afterwards make an estimation as to the machine's percentage of payback. A linear regression analysts indicated that such a subjective probability estimation is developed by a combination of the number of coins played, the number of coins won, and the number of winning games. These findings suggest that examining such environmental variables may provide an explanation for the development of subjective probabilities.

Learning Language Levels in Students Accurate with a History Academic Achievement History

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Noorlela Binti Noordin ◽  
Abdul Razaq Ahmad ◽  
Anuar Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Language Test ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Learning Language ◽  
The Relationship

This study was aimed to evaluate the Malay proficiency among students in Form Two especially non-Malay students and its relationship to academic achievement History. To achieve the purpose of the study there are two objectives, the first is to look at the difference between mean of Malay Language test influences min of academic achievement of History subject among non-Malay students in Form Two and the second is the relationship between the level of Malay proficiency and their academic achievement for History. This study used quantitative methods, which involved 100 people of Form Two non-Malay students in one of the schools in Klang, Selangor. This study used quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and statistical inference with IBM SPSS Statistics v22 software. This study found that there was a relationship between the proficiency of Malay language among non-Malay students with achievements in the subject of History. The implications of this study are discussed in this article.

The Idea of a Meaningful Synthesis of Marxist and Non-Marxist Systems of Political Economy as a Mirror of Intellectual Turmoil (About V.T. Ryazanov’s Book «Modern Political Economy: Prospects of Neo-Marxist Synthesis»)

2019 ◽  
pp. 74-98
Author(s):  
A.B. Lyubinin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Objective Reality ◽  
Commodity Production ◽  
Subjective Assessments ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Political Economic

Review of the monograph indicated in the subtitle V.T. Ryazanov. The reviewer is critical of the position of the author of the book, believing that it is possible and even necessary (to increase the effectiveness of General economic theory and bring it closer to practice) substantial (and not just formal-conventional) synthesis of the Marxist system of political economy with its non-Marxist systems. The article emphasizes the difference between the subject and the method of the classical, including Marxist, school of political economy with its characteristic objective perception of the subject from the neoclassical school with its reduction of objective reality to subjective assessments; this excludes their meaningful synthesis as part of a single «modern political economy». V.T. Ryazanov’s interpretation of commodity production in the economic system of «Capital» of K. Marx as a purely mental abstraction, in fact — a fiction, myth is also counter-argued. On the issue of identification of the discipline «national economy», the reviewer, unlike the author of the book, takes the position that it is a concrete economic science that does not have a political economic status.

Ronald Coase and the Difference between Markets and Firms

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham A. Singer
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Cost ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Transaction Cost Economics ◽  
Theory Of The Firm ◽  
Tabular Form ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Marginal Revolution ◽  
The Way

This chapter reviews the development of transaction cost economics and unpacks its theory of the firm. The chapter begins with the marginal revolution in economics and how it altered the way economists understood the corporation. It then reviews the work of Ronald Coase and Oliver Williamson, explaining how they provided a novel account of firms. Transaction cost economics emphasizes how firms use hierarchy and bureaucracy to overcome problems of opportunism and asset-specific investment to coordinate some types of economic activity more efficiently than markets can. The transaction cost account of the corporation’s productivity component is shown in tabular form in comparison with its historical forerunners reviewed in the previous chapter.

Rhythm

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lexi Eikelboom
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Human Existence ◽  
Embodied Experience ◽  
Giorgio Agamben ◽  
The Social ◽  
Contemporary Philosopher ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Theoretical Category

This book argues that, as a pervasive dimension of human existence with theological implications, rhythm ought to be considered a category of theological significance. Philosophers and theologians have drawn on rhythm—patterned movements of repetition and variation—to describe reality, however, the ways in which rhythm is used and understood differ based on a variety of metaphysical commitments with varying theological implications. This book brings those implications into the open, using resources from phenomenology, prosody, and the social sciences to analyse and evaluate uses of rhythm in metaphysical and theological accounts of reality. The analysis relies on a distinction from prosody between a synchronic approach to rhythm—observing the whole at once and considering how various dimensions of a rhythm hold together harmoniously—and a diachronic approach—focusing on the ways in which time unfolds as the subject experiences it. The text engages with the twentieth-century Jesuit theologian Erich Przywara alongside thinkers as diverse as Augustine and the contemporary philosopher Giorgio Agamben, and proposes an approach to rhythm that serves the concerns of theological conversation. It demonstrates the difference that including rhythm in theological conversation makes to how we think about questions such as “what is creation?” and “what is the nature of the God–creature relationship?” from the perspective of rhythm. As a theoretical category, capable of expressing metaphysical commitments, yet shaped by the cultural rhythms in which those expressing such commitments are embedded, rhythm is particularly significant for theology as a phenomenon through which culture and embodied experience influence doctrine.

scholarly journals The enzymes of B. coli communis . Part V.—(a) anaerobic growth followed by anaerobic and aerobic fermentation. (b) the effects of aeration during the fermentation

1921 ◽  
Vol 92 (644) ◽  
pp. 135-150
Keyword(s):  
Anaerobic Growth ◽  
Aerobic Growth ◽  
Aerobic Fermentation ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Effect Of Oxygen ◽  
Present Section ◽  
Ferment Glucose

In the present communications the effect of oxygen upon the fermentation of glucose and upon the growth of the bacteria, in so far as this affects fermentation, is considered. To this end the organisms have been grown both aerobically and anaerobically, and subsequently made to ferment glucose, both aerobically and anaerobically, with the object of comparing the products of decomposition in the two cases. There are clearly two problems : firstly, the effect of exposure to oxygen during growth upon the subsequent fermentation, whether aerobic or anaerobic, and, secondly, the effect of oxygen admitted during the fermentation. The first question relates to the part played by oxygen in the formation of enzymes, the second to the part played by oxygen in their action on carbohydrates. The first question is considered, though in but a preliminary way, in Section A, the second, more fully, in Section B. Section A. Object of the Experiments . Two results were aimed at in these experiments. Firstly, to compare the products of fermentation of glucose anaerobically, after anaerobic growth, with the products of fermentation anaerobically after previous growth aerobically. And, secondly, to obtain information as to the effect of introducing oxygen during the fermentation itself. This latter consideration, however, though brought to notice by these experiments, is considered only incidentally here because it forms the subject of Section B. In the present section we wish to direct attention particularly to those differences which exist between the fermentation after anaerobic and aerobic growth, not upon the effect of aeration during the fermentation. To point out the difference which previous growth aerobically or anaerobically has made, several analyses from previous experiments are included in Table IV side by side with the completely anaerobic experiments of Tables I, II, and III.

Violencia de (L) género: “Hacia una sofística de la materialidad de los cuerpos” / Violent gender: “To a sophistry of the materiality of bodies”

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (09) ◽  
pp. 83-97
Author(s):  
Claudio Reyes Lozano
Keyword(s):  
Gender Studies ◽  
Material Body ◽  
Aristotelian Logic ◽  
Political Position ◽  
Basic Assumptions ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Critical Gender Studies

Los estudios críticos de género sustancialistas desconocen su posición teórico-política en el momento de explayar algunas de sus hipótesis fundamentales. El presente estudio intenta dar cuenta de las consecuencias éticas que asume llevar hasta el final algunas de estas posiciones teóricas. Advertimos así que obras fundamentales de estos estudios se apropian con claridad, y sin saberlo, de una lógica aristotélica para tratar la asunción material del cuerpo, el sujeto y el género ¿Qué encontramos específicamente en esta lógica? Esta última se caracteriza por tener su raíz en una ontología inamovible, en donde cualquier intento de desbaratar el “ser” tiene como respuesta inmediata la exclusión violenta de la diferencia: concretamente observamos esto, dialogando tanto con colegas como legos, en la “violencia académica” pero también en la “violencia cotidiana” ¿Cómo salir del cierre metafísico que ha mantenido durante décadas la violencia y exclusión de aquello que se generó en primera instancia, paradójicamente, como argumentación de tolerancia y emancipación? Pensamos que deconstruyendo el discurso de género aristotélico podremos vislumbrar nuevas hipótesis y posiciones ético-políticas que no recurran, para validarse, a la exclusión violenta de nuevos cuerpos-sujetos-géneros. Some critical gender studies do not know their theoretical and political position at the time to developing some of their basic assumptions. This study attempts to explain the ethical consequences that lead to the end some of these theoretical positions. We realize that fundamental works of these studies clearly appropriating, and without knowing it, an aristotelian logic to justify the assumption of material body, the subject and gender. What specifically found in this logic? It is characterized to found on an immovable ontology, where any attempt to disrupt the “being” has as an immediate violent response to exclude the difference: specifically we observe this, dialoguing with colleagues and laymen, in the “academic violence” but also “everyday violence”. How to get out of the metaphysical closure that maintained for decades the violence and exclusion of what is generated in the first place, paradoxically, as argument of tolerance and emancipation? We think deconstructing the aristotelian discourse of gender can warn new hypotheses and ethical positions that not based, to validate, on a violent exclusion of new bodies-subject-genres positions.

Errors in Estimating the Orientation of Dot Patterns

Perception ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Lánský ◽  
Naum Yakimoff ◽  
T Radil ◽  
L Mitrani
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Analysis ◽  
Frontoparallel Plane ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

The error in estimating the orientation of a dot pattern was measured as the difference between the orientation of the least-squared-distances line (LS-line) of the pattern and the orientation of a line adjusted by the subject to match the perceived orientation of the pattern. Analysis of the mean errors (averaged over ten subjects) obtained for one hundred patterns confirmed that the orientation of the LS-line represents the orientation of elongated dot-patterns. It is shown that estimated orientation was systematically biased towards the nearest 45° oblique meridian. This bias points to the importance of the ±45° directions as natural norms for left- and right-side tilt in the frontoparallel plane.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN TAX REVIEW SEBAGAI DASAR EVALUASI ATAS PEMENUHAN KEWAJIBAN PERPAJAKAN PPH BADAN DAN PPN

2018 ◽  
pp. 245
Author(s):  
I Kadek Agus Setiawan ◽  
Putu Ery Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
National Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Corporate Income Tax ◽  
Measuring Instruments ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Tax Reporting ◽  
The Cost

Taxes as a source of state revenues are used as a source of funds for governments for national development and measuring instruments to regulate government policies. Taxation or tax review is a measure of all company transactions to calculate the amount of tax payable and predict potential taxes that may arise under applicable tax laws and regulations. This research was conducted at PT. KBIC which is engaged in cargo of Tax Year 2015. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of the implementation of tax review of corporate income tax and value added tax. The method used in this research is descriptive comparative. Comparing the results of tax reporting by the company with the calculation of Corporate Income Tax and Value Added Tax at PT. KBIC tax year 2015 from the researcher in accordance with the applicable tax provisions in Indonesia. Based on the results of the research, the tax review of the Corporate Income Tax has found differences in the fiscal reconciliation report on the Office of Travel and Phone Charge accounts. Taxpayers make 100% corrections of the cost of mobile phones. It should be corrected cost of 50% of the cost should be. On the company's travel account, the company can not show the official report or notes in the assignment explaining the subject or purpose of the Overseas official's travel related to the company's principal activity that causes the difference of tax correction between the taxpayer and the researcher. Tax review conducted on Value Added Tax, the taxpayer has reported the fiscal reconciliation report correctly and there is no mistake.

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