An Examination of the Professional Override of the Level of Service Inventory–Ontario Revision

2020 ◽  
pp. 009385482094227
Author(s):  
Laura C. Orton ◽  
Neil R. Hogan ◽  
J. Stephen Wormith
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Information Research ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Archival Database ◽  
Risk Categories

This study examined the nature and impacts of the professional override on the Level of Service Inventory–Ontario Revision (LSI-OR), using a large archival database of 40,539 individuals’ information. Research questions focused on the predictive validity of various LSI-OR risk metrics, including total risk/need scores, initial risk categories, and adjusted risk categories, for various types of recidivism; how professional overrides were used; whether they were used more with some groups than others; and whether their impacts varied depending on recidivism type. Overrides were applied in 15.4% of cases, most often (94.1%) to increase risk levels. Override use varied based on gender, race, and the nature of index offenses. Based on receiver operating characteristic analyses, the results generally indicated that adjusted risk levels (incorporating professional overrides) demonstrated inferior predictive validity relative to unadjusted metrics. The results suggest a need for increased caution and consistency in the application of professional overrides.

Validation and Application of the LS/CMI in Nebraska Probation

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 863-884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alisha Caldwell Jimenez ◽  
R. Hazel Delgado ◽  
Trace C. Vardsveen ◽  
Richard L. Wiener
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Racial Bias ◽  
Probation Officer ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Randomized Experiment ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
White Target

This study examined the validity of the Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI), as probation officers in the state of Nebraska use the tool. Study 1 evaluated the predictive validity of the LS/CMI by examining 19,344 probationer records over a 5.5-year period (January 2007-July 2013), and found that the LS/CMI total risk score demonstrated moderate predictive validity. Consistent with past findings, logistic regression showed that the total risk score predicted recidivism (return to probation) differently for nonminorities than for minorities. Furthermore, minorities scored higher than nonminorities on seven of the eight criminogenic factors. Study 2, a true randomized experiment, explored probation officer bias as an explanation for these findings, and found that training increased officers’ ratings of scores in some LS/CMI domains and decreased ratings in others. Most importantly, there was no evidence that officers demonstrated racial bias in administering the LS/CMI survey when scoring Black versus White target clients.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2110226
Author(s):  
Aitana Gomis-Pomares ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Juan E. Adrián
Keyword(s):  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
Youth Offenders ◽  
Disparate Impact ◽  
Roma Population ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Despite the increasing interest in the accuracy of youth risk assessment tools, the amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest. For this reason, the main goal of this study was to assess the predictive validity and disparate impact of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority. The participants consisted of 88 Roma youth offenders and 135 non-Roma youth offenders, aged between 14 and 17 years old. Their risk of recidivism was assessed by means of the YLS/CMI Inventory and their recidivism rate was obtained from the Juvenile Justice Department. Results showed that the Inventory presented slightly lower predictive validity for the Roma group. Moreover, Roma juveniles presented higher risk scores and lower strength scores than non-Roma juveniles. These results supported the idea that professionals must therefore be aware of these cultural differences in predictive validity and the existent potentiality for disparate impact.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

scholarly journals Epigenetics, Evolution, Endocrine Disruption, Health, and Disease

Endocrinology ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. s4-s10 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Crews ◽  
John A. McLachlan
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Endocrine Disruption ◽  
Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals ◽  
Epigenetic Mechanisms ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Endocrine Disrupting ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Health And Disease

Abstract Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment have been linked to human health and disease. This is particularly evident in compounds that mimic the effects of estrogens. Exposure to EDCs early in life can increase risk levels of compromised physical and mental health. Epigenetic mechanisms have been implicated in this process. Transgenerational consequences of EDC exposure is also discussed in both a proximate (mechanism) and ultimate (evolution) context as well as recent work suggesting how such transmission might become incorporated into the genome and subject to selection. We suggest a perspective for exploring and ultimately coming to understand diseases that may have environmental or endocrine origins.

Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism Among Spanish Juveniles Involved in Serious Offenses

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Cuervo ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Miguel Basto-Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Juvenile Sample

This study analyzes the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Spanish juvenile sample. Participants’ age ranged between 14 and 18.09 years old ( N = 264) and 82% were boys and all had been sentenced to probation and custody centers. Data on juvenile and young adult recidivism were collected for the sample with mean follow-up periods of 13.74 and 20.19 months, respectively. The area under the curve, Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression survival analyses were each conducted to check for predictive validity. The findings demonstrated that the YLS/CMI is able to predict recidivism in both the juvenile period and the emerging adult period in a different cultural context. Prior Offenses and Education/Employment emerged as significant predictors for youth and young adult recidivism. The entire YLS/CMI is therefore an effective tool for risk classification in a different cultural sample.

scholarly journals Preregistration in Single-Case Design Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Austin H. Johnson ◽  
Bryan G. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Design Research ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Single Case Design ◽  
Descriptive Information ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Information Research ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Participant Characteristics ◽  
Case Design ◽  
Research Studies

To draw informed conclusions from research studies, research consumers need full and accurate descriptions of study methods and procedures. Preregistration has been proposed as a means to clarify reporting of research methods and procedures, with the goal of reducing bias in research. However, preregistration has been applied primarily to research studies utilizing group designs. In this article, we discuss general issues in preregistration and consider the use of preregistration in single-case design research, particularly as it relates to differing applications of this methodology. We then provide a rationale and make specific recommendations for preregistering single-case design research, including guidelines for preregistering basic descriptive information, research questions, participant characteristics, baseline conditions, independent and dependent variables, hypotheses, and phase-change decisions.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment in selected communes of the Łódź region

2017 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Marta Borowska-Stefańska
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Flood ◽  
Very High ◽  
Risk Categories

The aim of the article is to assess the present level of land development of flood risk areas in selected communes of the Łódź province in the context of potential negative consequences for people, the natural environment, cultural heritage and economic operations. The research includes urban as well as urban and rural communes (9 communes in total) of the Łódź province which display high and very high flood risk levels according to the methodology used in Flood protection operating plan for the Łódź province from 2013 ( Plan operacyjny… 2013). Uniejów and Warta have the highest synthetic flood risk levels due to the surface occupied by buildings and areas assigned to individual risk categories. In turn, Łowicz and Tomaszów Mazowiecki (town) display the highest general flood risk level due to diversification of buildings and areas of individual risk categories.

scholarly journals The persistence of risk levels of general equity funds in an emerging market economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-28
Author(s):  
Rousseau Lötter
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Investment Styles ◽  
Over Time

The persistence of risk levels of local General Equity unit trusts is evaluated. Variations in absolute and market-adjusted returns are measured to determine whether investors can use historical risk as a proxy for future risk levels. The General Equity funds are fairly homogenous, and different funds should exhibit stable risk levels if the fund managers’ investment mandates and investment styles remain stable over time. The results indicate a degree of absolute and market-adjusted risk stability over time. The market-adjusted risk and return relationship remained stable through the 2008 global crises, indicating that, on average, the fund managers maintained their benchmark-related risk exposures. Both the absolute and market-adjusted results indicate no statistically significant relationship between risk and return for the 2000 to 2012 period.

scholarly journals Cardiac TdP risk stratification modelling of anti-infective compounds including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic G. Whittaker ◽  
Rebecca A. Capel ◽  
Maurice Hendrix ◽  
Xin Hui S. Chan ◽  
Neil Herring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Action Potential ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Torsade De Pointes ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Net Charge ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Risk Categories

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the hydroxyl derivative of chloroquine (CQ), is widely used in the treatment of rheumatological conditions (systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis) and is being studied for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Here, we investigate through mathematical modelling the safety profile of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infective agents to determine their risk categories for Torsade de Pointes (TdP) arrhythmia. We performed safety modelling with uncertainty quantification using a risk classifier based on the qNet torsade metric score , a measure of the net charge carried by major currents during the action potential under inhibition of multiple ion channels by a compound. Modelling results for HCQ at a maximum free therapeutic plasma concentration (free C max ) of approximately 1.2 µM (malaria dosing) indicated it is most likely to be in the high-intermediate-risk category for TdP, whereas CQ at a free C max of approximately 0.7 µM was predicted to most likely lie in the intermediate-risk category. Combining HCQ with the antibacterial moxifloxacin or the anti-malarial halofantrine (HAL) increased the degree of human ventricular action potential duration prolongation at some or all concentrations investigated, and was predicted to increase risk compared to HCQ alone. The combination of HCQ/HAL was predicted to be the riskiest for the free C max values investigated, whereas azithromycin administered individually was predicted to pose the lowest risk. Our simulation approach highlights that the torsadogenic potentials of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infectives used in COVID-19 prevention and treatment increase with concentration and in combination with other QT-prolonging drugs.

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