Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI histogram parameters predict progression-free survival in patients with advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (10) ◽  
pp. 1316-1325
Author(s):  
Lulu Xu ◽  
Xiaolin Ge ◽  
Nana Sun ◽  
Xisheng Liu

Background There is increased interest in dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) for predicting the outcomes of patients with advanced esophageal cancer. Purpose To explore whether DCE-MRI histogram parameters can predict 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma receiving concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Material and Methods This retrospective study enrolled 134 patients with advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma who were receiving CRT. The pre-CRT DCE-MRI histogram parameters (median, mean, SD, skewness, kurtosis, and 10th and 90th percentiles) of Ktrans, Kep, and Ve were collected. PFS analyses were performed using the Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank tests to compute the survival curves. The significant prognostic predictors among the data characteristics and DCE-MRI parameters were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Results There were 65 good responders (PFS ≥ 12 months) and 69 poor responders (PFS < 12 months). The median and mean values of Ktrans were higher, and the kurtosis value of Ktrans was lower in good responders. The median, mean, and 10th and 90th percentile values of Ktrans were higher, and the kurtosis values of Ktrans and Ve were lower in good responders. The PFS of patients aged ≥60 years, a CR effect, or a 10th percentile value of Ktrans ≥0.13 was increased ( P < 0.001, <0.001, and 0.014, respectively). Conclusion DCE-MRI histogram parameters can be used to evaluate the response to CRT in patients with advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma. The 10th percentile value of Ktrans has significant prognostic value for 12-month PFS.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Wu ◽  
Weiyuan Huang ◽  
Wenzhu Li ◽  
Yu Wu ◽  
Qianyu Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives: The objective of our study was to investigate whether a phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN) expression was associated with dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) parameters and prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).Methods: Two hundred and forty-five (245) patients with NPC who underwent pretreatment biopsy, PTEN immunohistochemistry of biopsy, and radical intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with or without chemotherapy were included. Tumor segmentations were delineated on pretreatment MRI manually. The pharmacokinetic parameters (Ktrans, Kep, Ve, and Vp) derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) using the extended Toft’s model within the tumor segmentations were estimated. The following demographics and clinical features were assessed and correlated against each other: gender, age, TNM stage, clinical-stage, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), pathological type, progression-free survival (PFS), and prognosis status. DCE parameter evaluation and clinical feature comparison between the PTEN positive and negative groups was performed and correlation between PTEN expression with the PFS and prognosis status using Cox regression for survival analysis was assessed.Results: A significantly lower Ktrans and Kep were found in NPC tumors in PTEN negative patients than in PTEN positive patients. Ktrans performed better than Kep in detecting PTEN expression with the ROC AUC of 0.752. PTEN negative was associated with later TNM stage, later clinical-stage, shorter PFS, and worse prognosis. Moreover, N stage, pathological type, Kep, and prognostic status can be considered as independent variables in discrimination of PTEN negative expression in NPCs. Conclusions: PTEN negative indicated a shorter PFS and worse prognosis than PTEN positive in NPC patients. Ktrans and Kep derived from DCE-MRI, which yielded reliable capability, should be considered as novel image markers that are correlated with PTEN expression and may be used to predict PTEN expression noninvasively. Combined radiological and clinical features can improve the performance of the classification of PTEN expression.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 59-59
Author(s):  
Umang Swami ◽  
Taylor Ryan McFarland ◽  
Benjamin Haaland ◽  
Adam Kessel ◽  
Roberto Nussenzveig ◽  
...  

59 Background: In mCSPC, baseline CTC counts have been shown to correlate with PSA responses and progression free survival (PFS) in small studies in the context of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) without modern intensification with docetaxel or novel hormonal therapy. Similar correlation of CTC count with PSA responses and PFS was recently reported from an ongoing phase 3 trial in mCSPC setting (SWOG1216) without reporting the association in the context of ADT intensification. Furthermore, none of these studies correlated CTCs with overall survival (OS). Herein we evaluated whether CTCs were associated with outcomes including OS in a real world mCPSC population treated with intensified as well as non-intensified ADT. Methods: Eligibility criteria: new mCSPC receiving ADT with or without intensification and enumeration of baseline CTCs by FDA cleared Cell Search CTC assay. The relationship between CTC counts (categorized as: 0, 1-4, and ≥5/7.5 ml) and both PFS and OS was assessed in the context of Cox proportional hazards models, both unadjusted and adjusted for age, Gleason, PSA at ADT initiation, de novo vs. non-de novo status, and ADT intensification vs. non-intensification therapy. Results: Overall 99 pts were identified. Baseline characteristics are summarized in Table. In unadjusted analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 were strongly associated with inferior PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.38, 95% CI 1.85-6.18; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.44 95% CI 1.63-12.10; p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 continued to be associated with inferior PFS (HR 5.49, 95% CI 2.64-11.43; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.00, 95% CI 1.31-12.23; p = 0.015). Within the ADT intensification subgroup also, high CTC counts were associated with poor PFS and OS. For PFS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 4.87 (95% CI 1.66-14.30; p = 0.004) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 7.43 (95% CI 1.92-28.82; p = 0.004). For OS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 15.88 (95% CI 1.93-130.58; p = 0.010) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 24.86 (95% CI 2.03-304.45; p = 0.012). Conclusions: To best of our knowledge this is the first study to show that high baseline CTC counts are strongly associated with inferior PFS as well as OS in pts with newly diagnosed mCSPC, even in those who received intensified ADT therapy. Identifying these pts at highest risk of progression and death can help with counselling and prognostication in clinics as well as design and enrollment in future clinical trials. [Table: see text]


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15067-e15067
Author(s):  
Emily Pei-Ying Lin ◽  
Chih-Yuan Hsu ◽  
Pan-Chyr Yang ◽  
Yu Shyr

e15067 Background: Approvals of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) were made based on positive clinical trial results analyzed by the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model. With ICI data, however, long tails and early crossover in survival curves, which violate the Cox PH assumption, can lead to misinterpretation of clinical significance of findings. Here we introduce the Cox-TEL and show the differences of study results before and after Cox-TEL adjustment using KEYNOTE 042 and 045 as examples. Methods: Cox-TEL is built on the mathematical foundation of Taylor expansion. As an easily implemented alternative of PH cure model, it not only infers associations between survival probabilities of the two study arms among patients without long-term survival (poor-responders), but also estimates differences in proportion (DP) between arms among patients in the long-tail segment of the survival curve (true-responders). Results: In KEYNOTE 042, the Cox-TEL HRs for death were statistically insignificant across all subgroups. The trend of DP, on the other hand, is positively related to that of PD-L1 TPS and inverted related to that of Cox HR when the PD-L1 ≥50% cohort is covered. In KEYNOTE 045, the Cox-TEL HRs suggested that for the poor-responders, pembrolizumab did not do better than chemotherapy in terms of overall survival (OS) and might do harm to the patients in terms of progression-free survival (PFS). For the true-responders, DPs of OS and PFS were both statistically significant (Table). Conclusions: Our data demonstrated the biases derived from insufficient data analyses and strengthened the necessity of analytic model revisits in the new oncology era of which cure for advanced cancers is no longer impossible. [Table: see text]


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 787
Author(s):  
Ronald Wihal Oei ◽  
Yingchen Lyu ◽  
Lulu Ye ◽  
Fangfang Kong ◽  
Chengrun Du ◽  
...  

Background: The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model is the most commonly used statistical method for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognostication. Recently, machine learning (ML) models are increasingly adopted for this purpose. However, only a few studies have compared the performances between CPH and ML models. This study aimed at comparing CPH with two state-of-the-art ML algorithms, namely, conditional survival forest (CSF) and DeepSurv for disease progression prediction in NPC. Methods: From January 2010 to March 2013, 412 eligible NPC patients were reviewed. The entire dataset was split into training cohort and testing cohort in a ratio of 90%:10%. Ten features from patient-related, disease-related, and treatment-related data were used to train the models for progression-free survival (PFS) prediction. The model performance was compared using the concordance index (c-index), Brier score, and log-rank test based on the risk stratification results. Results: DeepSurv (c-index = 0.68, Brier score = 0.13, log-rank test p = 0.02) achieved the best performance compared to CSF (c-index = 0.63, Brier score = 0.14, log-rank test p = 0.38) and CPH (c-index = 0.57, Brier score = 0.15, log-rank test p = 0.81). Conclusions: Both CSF and DeepSurv outperformed CPH in our relatively small dataset. ML-based survival prediction may guide physicians in choosing the most suitable treatment strategy for NPC patients.


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 1751-1751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Österborg ◽  
Anna Asklid ◽  
Joris Diels ◽  
Johanna Repits ◽  
Frans Söltoft ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Ibrutinib (Ibr), an oral, first-in-class covalent Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor, showed in the Phase 3 RESONATE trial significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS, hazard ratio [HR] =0.22, p<0.001) and overall survival (OS, HR=0.39,p=0.001) compared with ofatumumab (ofa) in patients with previously treated CLL who were not eligible for chemoimmunotherapy (Byrd et al, NEJM 2013). Long-term follow-up data from a single arm Phase 2 study have also demonstrated that patients treated with ibrutinib have long durable responses with a PFS at 2.5 years of 69% (Byrd et al, Blood 2015). While ofatumumab is a licensed comparator and included in treatment guidelines, some Health Technology Assessment (HTA) bodies require comparisons with a wider range of treatments. In the absence of direct head-to-head comparison of single-agent ibrutinib with other frequently used treatments in this patient population, additional comparative evidence against standard of care as observed in clinical practice can provide useful insights on the relative efficacy of ibrutinib. Naïve (unadjusted) comparisons of outcomes from different sources are prone to bias due to confounding, as treatment assignments were not randomly assigned, and populations can vary in important prognostic factors. The objective of this analysis was to compare the relative efficacy of Ibr versus physician's choice in R/R CLL-patients based on patient-level data from RESONATE pooled with an observational cohort, adjusting for confounders using multivariate statistical modelling. Methods Patient-level data from the Phase 3 RESONATE trial (Ibr: n=195; ofa: n=196) were pooled with data from a retrospective observational study conducted in the Stockholm area in Sweden. This retrospective study collected efficacy and safety data from a detailed, in-depth retrospective review of individual patient files from 148 consecutively identified patients with R/R CLL initiated on second or later line treatment between 2002 and 2013 at the four CLL-treating centers in Stockholm, Sweden, with complete follow-up. Longitudinal follow-up in subsequent treatment lines was available for patients in 3rd (n=91), 4th (n=51), 5th (n=29), and 6+ (n=15) line, and as such individual patients could contribute information to the analysis for multiple lines of therapy, with baseline defined as the date of initiation of the actual treatment line. A multivariate cox proportional hazards model was developed to compare PFS and OS between treatments, including line of therapy, age, gender, Binet stage, ECOG, and refractory disease as covariates. Adjusted HRs and 95% CIs are presented vs. Ibr. Results Across all treatment lines, fludarabine-cyclophosphamide (FC) (n=64), chlorambucil (n=59), alemtuzumab (n=33), FC+rituximab (FCR) (n=30), bendamustine+rituximab (BR) (n=28), and other rituximab-based combination chemotherapy (n=28) were the most frequently used treatments. Line of therapy, age and gender, Binet stage, ECOG performance status, and refractory disease were all independent risk factors for worse outcome on both PFS and OS. The adjusted HR for PFS and OS pooled observational data versus Ibr were 6.80 [4.72;9.80] (p<0.0001) and 2.90 [1.80;4.69] (p<0.0001). HR's for PFS/OS versus most frequent treatment regimens ranged between 2.50/1.82 (FCR) and 14.00/5.34 (anti-CD20 Mab). Baseline adjusted results for the Ofa-arm in RESONATE were comparable for both PFS and OS to outcome data from the consecutive historical cohort, however OS outcomes for Ofa were partly confounded by cross-over to Ibr. Conclusions Comparison of results from the Phase 3 RESONATE study with treatments used as part of previous standard of care in a well-defined cohort of consecutive Swedish patients shows that ibrutinib is superior to physician's choice in patients with relapsed/refractory CLL, suggesting a more than 6 fold improvement in PFS and almost 3 fold improvement in OS. Results were consistent across all different physician chosen treatments and provides further evidence that ibrutinib improves both PFS and OS vs current and prior standard of care regimens. Figure 1. Adjusted Hazard ratio's for PFS and OS of physician's choice versus Ibrutinib (RESONATE) (Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression) a. Progression-free survival b. Overall survival Figure 1. Adjusted Hazard ratio's for PFS and OS of physician's choice versus Ibrutinib (RESONATE) (Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression). / a. Progression-free survival b. Overall survival Disclosures Österborg: Janssen Cilag: Research Funding. Asklid:Janssen Cilag: Research Funding. Diels:Janssen: Employment. Repits:Janssen Cilag: Employment. Söltoft:Janssen Cilag: Employment. Hansson:Jansse Cilag: Research Funding. Jäger:Janssen Cilag: Research Funding.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 743-743
Author(s):  
Satoshi Yuki ◽  
Hiroshi Nakatsumi ◽  
Hideyuki Hayashi ◽  
Hiraku Fukushima ◽  
Takashi Kato ◽  
...  

743 Background: It was reported that an optimal morphologic response to preoperative chemotherapy was associated with better overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with colorectal liver metastases (CLM). We investigated association of morphologic response with progression free survival (PFS) in pts with unresectable CLM from HGCSG0802 observational cohort study in pts with mCRC treated with first-line bevacizumab (BV)-based chemotherapy. Methods: The objective of HGCSG0802 was to evaluate PFS, OS, time to treatment failure (TTF), response rate (RR), safety, etc. The key eligibility criteria were evaluable lesions, older than 20 years old, ECOG PS 0-2. Pts with CLM underwent contrast-enhanced CT at the start and every 8-weeks of BV-based chemotherapy. In this analysis, three blinded, independent radiologists evaluated images for morphologic response, based on metastases changing from heterogeneous masses with ill-defined margins into homogeneous hypoattenuating lesions with sharp borders. Association of morphologic response and pts characteristics, RR, and PFS were evaluated. PFS was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of 108 pts (the full analysis set), 73 pts with CLM were evaluable for morphologic criteria. Eighteen pts (24.7%) had optimal morphologic response (OR), 31 (42.5%) had incomplete (IR), and 24 (32.9%) had no response (NR). The pts characteristics between those with OR, IR and NR were generally balanced. The median TTF was 7.2 months in NR versus 7.2 months in IR versus 6.8 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.91, HR (OR/IR) = 0.90; p = 0.93). RR was 77.8% in OR versus 64.5% in IR and 58.3% in NR (p = 0.528). The median PFS was 8.3 months in NR versus 8.5 months in IR versus 9.1 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.72, HR (OR/IR) = 1.04; p = 0.420). Conclusions: In this analysis, morphologic response might not be a prognostic marker in first-line BV-based chemotherapy in pts with CLM.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 425-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Tzong Chen ◽  
Jens T Siveke ◽  
Andrea Wang-Gillam ◽  
Richard Hubner ◽  
Shubham Pant ◽  
...  

425 Background: CA19-9 has been shown to correlate with response to therapy and OS in patients with mPAC. NAPOLI-1, a randomized phase 3 study evaluated nal-IRI, a nanoliposomal formulation of irinotecan, with or without 5-FU/LV vs 5-FU/LV in patients with mPAC previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy. Nal-IRI+5-FU/LV significantly improved OS (primary endpoint) vs 5-FU/LV (6.1 mo vs 4.2 mo; unstratified hazard ratio [HR] = 0.67; P = 0.012). CA19-9 response (≥50% decline from baseline) was superior with nal-IRI+5FU/LV compared with 5-FU/LV (29% vs 9%; P=0.0006). Nal-IRI alone did not show a statistical improvement in survival. Methods: Patients with a recorded baseline CA19-9 measurement were divided into quartiles to evaluate the treatment effect pattern of CA19-9 from nal-IRI+5-FU/LV and 5-FU/LV arms. Quartile ranges were based on 404 available CA19-9 values from randomized patients (N=417). Unstratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate HRs and corresponding 95% CIs. Effect of baseline CA19-9 on time to response, progression-free survival, and response will be presented. Results: Of patients randomized to receive nal-IRI+5-FU/LV (n = 117) or 5-FU/LV enrolled contemporaneously (n = 119), 218 received study drug and had a baseline CA19-9 measurement. Results show a greater treatment effect on OS with higher CA19-9 level relative to 5-FU/LV. Conclusions: In patients with mPAC previously treated with gemcitabine-based therapy, nal-IRI+5-FU/LV significantly improved OS supported by progression free survival and objective response rate. The CA19-9 serum level can provide important information with regards to overall survival. Clinical trial information: NCT01494506. [Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5023-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jay Small ◽  
Fred Saad ◽  
Simon Chowdhury ◽  
Stephane Oudard ◽  
Boris A. Hadaschik ◽  
...  

5023 Background: The addition of APA to ongoing ADT in pts with nmCRPC significantly prolonged metastasis-free survival (MFS), time to symptomatic progression (SymProg), and second progression-free survival (PFS2) in SPARTAN. We assessed the impact of APA on these end points in pts with or without BL CM. Methods: Using Cox proportional hazards models, treatment effect of APA was evaluated in SPARTAN pts with CM at BL, stratifying by the presence of BL diabetes/hyperglycemia (D/H), cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension (HTN), and renal insufficiency (RI). Results: Of 1207 SPARTAN pts, 1062 (88%) had ≥ 1 BL CM, including 703/806 (87%) APA pts and 359/401 (90%) PBO pts. A total of 226 (19%), 398 (33%), 798 (66%), and 774 (64%) pts had D/H, CVD, HTN, and RI, respectively; 323 (27%), 412 (34%), 259 (21%), and 68 (6%) pts had 1, 2, 3, and 4 CM, respectively. Incidence of CM was balanced between arms. Pts with CM were older than pts with no CM (median age, 75 vs 69 yrs, APA; 74 vs 69 yrs, PBO). MFS, SymProg, and PFS2 benefit with APA was significant in all CM subgroups, except PFS2 for pts with D/H (Table) and regardless of the number of CM. The incidence of any treatment-emergent AE was balanced between pts with and without CM. AEs with APA were not affected by any CM. Clinical trial information: NCT01946204. Conclusions: The benefit of APA + ongoing ADT in pts with nmCRPC was maintained in pts with D/H, CVD, HTN, and RI. The safety profile of APA was not affected by any CM.[Table: see text]


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document