scholarly journals Progression-Free Survival Prediction in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy: Machine Learning versus Traditional Statistics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 787
Author(s):  
Ronald Wihal Oei ◽  
Yingchen Lyu ◽  
Lulu Ye ◽  
Fangfang Kong ◽  
Chengrun Du ◽  
...  

Background: The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model is the most commonly used statistical method for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) prognostication. Recently, machine learning (ML) models are increasingly adopted for this purpose. However, only a few studies have compared the performances between CPH and ML models. This study aimed at comparing CPH with two state-of-the-art ML algorithms, namely, conditional survival forest (CSF) and DeepSurv for disease progression prediction in NPC. Methods: From January 2010 to March 2013, 412 eligible NPC patients were reviewed. The entire dataset was split into training cohort and testing cohort in a ratio of 90%:10%. Ten features from patient-related, disease-related, and treatment-related data were used to train the models for progression-free survival (PFS) prediction. The model performance was compared using the concordance index (c-index), Brier score, and log-rank test based on the risk stratification results. Results: DeepSurv (c-index = 0.68, Brier score = 0.13, log-rank test p = 0.02) achieved the best performance compared to CSF (c-index = 0.63, Brier score = 0.14, log-rank test p = 0.38) and CPH (c-index = 0.57, Brier score = 0.15, log-rank test p = 0.81). Conclusions: Both CSF and DeepSurv outperformed CPH in our relatively small dataset. ML-based survival prediction may guide physicians in choosing the most suitable treatment strategy for NPC patients.

Chemotherapy ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Liping Yang ◽  
Jing Gao ◽  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Zhenchao Tao ◽  
Jian He ◽  
...  

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) in patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: Patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) were retrospectively analyzed. The AAPR was calculated using the last value of albumin to alkaline phosphatase that was measured within 1 week before CRT. The optimal cutoff value for the AAPR value was determined by an X-tile plot. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the differences of the baseline characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to calculate the survival. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was conducted for the multivariate analysis. Results: Totally, 87 patients with nonmetastatic NPC who underwent CRT were included in the analysis. The optimal cutoff level for the AAPR was 0.46. The group with an AAPR ≤0.46 was more likely to have poorer overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (p = 0.023, p = 0.031 and p = 0.027, for OS, PFS, and DMFS, respectively). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, high AAPR was a better prognostic predictor. Conclusion: AAPR may be a reliable prognostic index for nonmetastatic NPC patients.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 5358-5358
Author(s):  
Abrahão Elias Hallack Neto ◽  
Graziela Toledo Costa Mayrink ◽  
Luciano J. Costa ◽  
Kelli Borges dos Santos

Abstract Introduction: The association between classical Hodgkin's Lymphoma (cHL) and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status is well established. However, the presence of EBV within Hodgkin/Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells and its prognosis remains controversial, with conflicting findings from studies of various regions of the world. It is considered essential to deepen the understanding of the pathogenic role of EBV in cHL and its impact in prognosis. Methods: We assessed the correlation between EBV presence in HRS and outcomes in a cohort of Brazilian patients with cHL. EBV positivity was determined by in situ hybridization (ISH) for EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) and immunohistochemistry (IMH) for viral latent membrane protein (LMP-1). All cases were histologically confirmed by an expert hematopathologist who also performed the assays for EBV identification. We examined the prognostic impact of EBV status in 29 patients with cHL. The prognostic factors by IPS (International Prognostic Score) for patients with advanced stage and the risk factors by GHSG (German Hodgkin Study Group) for patients with limited stage were correlated with EBV status tumor cells. For associations between the presence of EBV and other categorical variables, we applied Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. For describe the effect size (ES) measures for chi-square, we used Cramér's V (V) and odds ratios (OR) with the respective 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). To evaluate the correlation between all methods of identification of EBV status and among evaluators in histological classification, we applied the Kappa test (K), which measures the degree of agreement these assessments. Differences in OS (overall survival) and EFS (event-free survival) Kaplan-Meier survival curves between EBV-positive and EBV-negative patients were compared statistically using the log-rank test. To evaluate the impact of EBV status on event-free survival controlling for prognostic factors and unfavorable risks, we applied Cox proportional hazards regression to determine hazards ratios (HR) and associated the respective 95% CIs. Multivariate analyses included variables significant at p ≤ 0.15 in univariate models. Results: The mean age at diagnosis was 33 years. Sixty-five percent of the patients had the Nodular Sclerosis histologic subtype and 62,1% had Ann Arbor stage I or II disease at diagnosis. According to GHSG, 88,3% of early-stage patients were classified with unfavorable risk (at least one risk factor) at diagnosis. Compared to advanced-stage patients, 81,9% were considered with favorable IPS (< 4 prognostic factors) at diagnosis. HRS cells were EBV-positive in 37.9% of cases. EBV-positive cHL cases were more frequent in patients ≥ 45 years (71,4% vs. 27,3%, p =0,07). Mixed cellularity (MC) histology subtype was more common in EBV-related tumor cells (p= 0,02) and its effect-size index was medium. The correlation between all methods of identification of EBV status was 96,5% (p< 0,001; K=0.93). The correlation among evaluators in histological classification was 89,6% (p< 0,001; K=0.79). In univariate analysis, age, stage, histologic subtype, nodal involvement, extranodal disease, sex, bulky disease, laboratory data were not associated with adverse EFS (p>0,05). EBV-positive HL seemed to have better EFS than EBV-negative HL (log-rank test, p = 0,07). Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that EBV-positive tumor status and prognosis factors did not impact HL outcome. Conclusions: Despite EBV status in HRS cells not being associated with adverse prognostic factors and not influencing the overall and event-free survivals, the presence of EBV was linked to MC subtype, showing possible implication in histological subtype and worse prognosis. Disclosures Costa: Sanofi: Honoraria, Research Funding.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4022-4022
Author(s):  
D. Yang ◽  
A. Pohl ◽  
W. Zhang ◽  
G. Lurje ◽  
Y. Ning ◽  
...  

4022 Background: EPIC, a multinational phase III clinical trial with IR + CB vs IR alone in mCRC pts in the second-line setting after failure of FOLFOX demonstrated a benefit for IR+CB in progression-free survival (PFS) and response rate (RR). We evaluated functional germline polymorphisms involved in the EGFR- (EGF, EGFR), angiogenesis- (VEGF, IL-8, CXCR-2) - and drug- metabolism related genes (UGT1A1, MTHFR) for their potential role as molecular predictors for clinical outcome in pts treated with CB/IR vs. IR alone. Methods: DNA was extracted from all available formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples from the phase III EPIC trial (US sites only). Genotyping was performed using PCR-RFLP assays and 5’ -end [g-33P] ATP’ labeled PCR-protocols. Results: 186 pts were treated either with IR/CB (arm A, 84 pts) or IR (arm B, 102 pts) only. In arm A, 11/84 pts (13%) showed CR or PR, whereas 73/84 (87%) pts had SD or PD. For arm B, 6/102 pts (6%) showed CR or PR, whereas 96/102 pts (94%) had SD or PD. Median PFS in arm A was 3.0 months (95%CI: 2.4- 4.1 months) vs 2.7 months (95%CI: 2.2–2.9 months) in arm B; median overall survival (OS) was 9.3 months (95%CI: 7.1–12.1 months) in arm A vs. 12.3 months (95%CI: 10.4- 17.9 months) in arm B. K-ras mutation status was not significantly associated with PFS or response to CB/IR in the subgroup of 186 patients. We found an EGFR-CA- repeat in intron 1 in arm A to be associated with PFS (p=0.031, log-rank test). In arm B, we found a significant association with RR (p=0.0103, Fisher's exact test) for MTHFR1298. Furthermore, MTHFR 677 (p =0.0048, log-rank test) and MTHFR 1298 (p=0.038, log-rank test) were also found to be associated with OS in arm B. In multivariate analysis, EGFR-CA-repeat was significantly associated with PFS (adjusted p= 0.023). Furthermore, MTHFR 677 and MTHFR 1298 was associated with OS (adjusted p=0.028 and 0.026, respectively, Cox-proportional hazards models), independent from K-ras mutation status, race and number of disease sites. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the potential predictive value of polymorphisms in the EGFR- and MTHFR- gene in mCRC pts treated with IR+ CB. Further validation in additional clinical trials is necessary. [Table: see text]


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 743-743
Author(s):  
Satoshi Yuki ◽  
Hiroshi Nakatsumi ◽  
Hideyuki Hayashi ◽  
Hiraku Fukushima ◽  
Takashi Kato ◽  
...  

743 Background: It was reported that an optimal morphologic response to preoperative chemotherapy was associated with better overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with colorectal liver metastases (CLM). We investigated association of morphologic response with progression free survival (PFS) in pts with unresectable CLM from HGCSG0802 observational cohort study in pts with mCRC treated with first-line bevacizumab (BV)-based chemotherapy. Methods: The objective of HGCSG0802 was to evaluate PFS, OS, time to treatment failure (TTF), response rate (RR), safety, etc. The key eligibility criteria were evaluable lesions, older than 20 years old, ECOG PS 0-2. Pts with CLM underwent contrast-enhanced CT at the start and every 8-weeks of BV-based chemotherapy. In this analysis, three blinded, independent radiologists evaluated images for morphologic response, based on metastases changing from heterogeneous masses with ill-defined margins into homogeneous hypoattenuating lesions with sharp borders. Association of morphologic response and pts characteristics, RR, and PFS were evaluated. PFS was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of 108 pts (the full analysis set), 73 pts with CLM were evaluable for morphologic criteria. Eighteen pts (24.7%) had optimal morphologic response (OR), 31 (42.5%) had incomplete (IR), and 24 (32.9%) had no response (NR). The pts characteristics between those with OR, IR and NR were generally balanced. The median TTF was 7.2 months in NR versus 7.2 months in IR versus 6.8 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.91, HR (OR/IR) = 0.90; p = 0.93). RR was 77.8% in OR versus 64.5% in IR and 58.3% in NR (p = 0.528). The median PFS was 8.3 months in NR versus 8.5 months in IR versus 9.1 months in OR (HR (OR/NR) = 0.72, HR (OR/IR) = 1.04; p = 0.420). Conclusions: In this analysis, morphologic response might not be a prognostic marker in first-line BV-based chemotherapy in pts with CLM.


2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 855-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Lin ◽  
Xue-Song Sun ◽  
Sai-Lan Liu ◽  
Xiao-Yun Li ◽  
Nian Lu ◽  
...  

Purpose The prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with parotid lymph node (PLN) metastasis remains unclear. This study was performed to investigate the prognostic significance and optimal staging category of PLN metastasis and develop a nomogram for estimating individual risk.Materials and MethodsClinical data of 7,084 non-metastatic NPC patients were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. A nomogram was established based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The accuracy and calibration ability of this nomogram was evaluated by C-index and calibration curves with bootstrap validation.ResultTotally, 164/7,084 NPC patients (2.3%) presented with PLNs. Multivariate analyses showed that PLN metastasis was a negative prognostic factor for OS, progression-free survival (PFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS). Patients with PLN metastasis had a worse prognosis than N3 disease. Five independent prognostic factors were included in the nomogram, which showed a C-index of 0.743. The calibration curves for probability of 3- and 5-year OS indicated satisfactory agreement between nomogram-based prediction and actual observation. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort.ConclusionNPC patient with PLN metastasis had poorer survival outcome (OS, PFS, DMFS, and LRFS) than N3 disease. We developed a nomogram to provide individual prediction of OS for patients with PLN metastasis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15045-e15045
Author(s):  
Benny Johnson ◽  
Zhaohui Jin ◽  
Mark J. Truty ◽  
Rory L. Smoot ◽  
Michael L. Kendrick ◽  
...  

e15045 Background: BRAF V600E mutations are present in 7% of mCRC patients (pts) and portend a poor prognosis. Data guiding initial treatment decisions are limited. This study investigates the management approach and clinical impact of utilizing metastasectomy for pts with BRAF V600E mCRC. Methods: By using prospective clinical and molecular data from Mayo Clinic, pts with BRAF V600E mCRC were analyzed for clinical characteristics, treatment and survival outcomes. Statistical analyses utilized Kaplan-Meier method, Log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: 164 pts with BRAF V600E mCRC were identified between 6/1999-8/2015. Complete follow up data were available for 52 pts. Median age of 65 years, 61% female, ECOG PS ≤ 1, 71% of pts had right sided tumors and 28% presented with liver limited metastasis. Only 7% (4/52) received FOLFOXIRI/BEV (average of 8 cycles). Peripheral neuropathy, pending BRAF status , and prior progression on FOLFOX, were the most common reasons documented for avoiding FOLFOXIRI/BEV. FOLFOX/BEV was the most common 1st line regimen used (32% of pts). Median overall survival (mOS) for all 52 pts was 25 months (mo) with median progression free survival (PFS) of 9.3 mo, reflecting worse survival when compared to BRAF wild-type control patients treated at Mayo Clinic (249 pts, mOS: 43 mo). With median follow up of 18.3 mo, 21 pts who underwent metastasectomy had improved OS (29.1mo vs. 22.7mo, HR = 0.33; CI: 0.12-0.78; p = 0.01) and PFS (13.6mo vs. 6.2mo, HR = 0.53, CI: 0.28-0.97; p = 0.03) when compared to the non-metastasectomy cohort, respectively. In multivariate analysis, metastasectomy remained statistically significant for improved survival outcomes (HR 0.52; 95% CI 0.07-1.02; p = 0.02). Median relapse-free survival after metastasectomy was 9.7 mo (95% CI, 5.5 mo-19.5 mo). Only 2 pts remain disease free at the time of last follow up, with 1 pt without recurrent disease for greater than 2 years (28.9 mo). Conclusions: The use of multimodality therapy incorporating metastasectomy for BRAF V600E mCRC is a critical component for enhanced survival outcomes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 59-59
Author(s):  
Umang Swami ◽  
Taylor Ryan McFarland ◽  
Benjamin Haaland ◽  
Adam Kessel ◽  
Roberto Nussenzveig ◽  
...  

59 Background: In mCSPC, baseline CTC counts have been shown to correlate with PSA responses and progression free survival (PFS) in small studies in the context of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) without modern intensification with docetaxel or novel hormonal therapy. Similar correlation of CTC count with PSA responses and PFS was recently reported from an ongoing phase 3 trial in mCSPC setting (SWOG1216) without reporting the association in the context of ADT intensification. Furthermore, none of these studies correlated CTCs with overall survival (OS). Herein we evaluated whether CTCs were associated with outcomes including OS in a real world mCPSC population treated with intensified as well as non-intensified ADT. Methods: Eligibility criteria: new mCSPC receiving ADT with or without intensification and enumeration of baseline CTCs by FDA cleared Cell Search CTC assay. The relationship between CTC counts (categorized as: 0, 1-4, and ≥5/7.5 ml) and both PFS and OS was assessed in the context of Cox proportional hazards models, both unadjusted and adjusted for age, Gleason, PSA at ADT initiation, de novo vs. non-de novo status, and ADT intensification vs. non-intensification therapy. Results: Overall 99 pts were identified. Baseline characteristics are summarized in Table. In unadjusted analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 were strongly associated with inferior PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.38, 95% CI 1.85-6.18; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.44 95% CI 1.63-12.10; p = 0.004). In multivariate analyses, CTC counts of ≥5 as compared to 0 continued to be associated with inferior PFS (HR 5.49, 95% CI 2.64-11.43; p < 0.001) and OS (HR 4.00, 95% CI 1.31-12.23; p = 0.015). Within the ADT intensification subgroup also, high CTC counts were associated with poor PFS and OS. For PFS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 4.87 (95% CI 1.66-14.30; p = 0.004) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 7.43 (95% CI 1.92-28.82; p = 0.004). For OS, the univariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 15.88 (95% CI 1.93-130.58; p = 0.010) and multivariate HR for CTC ≥5 vs. 0 was 24.86 (95% CI 2.03-304.45; p = 0.012). Conclusions: To best of our knowledge this is the first study to show that high baseline CTC counts are strongly associated with inferior PFS as well as OS in pts with newly diagnosed mCSPC, even in those who received intensified ADT therapy. Identifying these pts at highest risk of progression and death can help with counselling and prognostication in clinics as well as design and enrollment in future clinical trials. [Table: see text]


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10574-10574
Author(s):  
Jonathan Riess ◽  
Millie Snigdha Das ◽  
Paul Henry Frankel ◽  
Erich Schwartz ◽  
Robyn Bennis ◽  
...  

10574 Background: Biomarkers predicting efficacy of chemotherapy are highly desirable. Fiber array scanning technology (FAST) is a novel method of detecting circulating tumor cells (CTCs) that does not employ an EpCam enrichment step. The purpose of this study was to use FAST to evaluate ERCC1 expression on CTCs to determine whether ERCC1 expression correlates with progression-free survival (PFS) in patients who received platinum-based chemotherapy for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: Peripheral blood from one hundred enrolled patients with metastatic NSCLC was collected by two institutions (Stanford Cancer Institute and Billings Clinic Cancer Center). FAST was used to identify individual CTCs on immunofluorescence by pancytokeratin antibodies. Nuclear localization of ERCC1 expression by immunofluorescence was quantified on individual CTCs. Total patient ERCC1 levels were determined from the average expression of all the CTCs in each patient sample. Fifty-seven of the one hundred patients enrolled received platinum chemotherapy. Seventeen of those fifty-seven patients (30%) had ≥ 2 evaluable intact CTCs and were analyzed retrospectively. Linear regression (F-test) was used to evaluate the correlation between ERCC1 expression and PFS. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (log-rank test) was used to compare PFS in patients with CTCs with no detectable ERCC1 expression versus patients with CTCs that expressed any level of ERCC1. Results: PFS decreased with increasing ERCC1 expression (P<0.04 F-test, linear regression). Lack of ERCC1 expression was associated with longer PFS (266 days vs. 172 days, log-rank test P<0.02). The difference in survival was statistically significant with a hazard ratio of 4.20 (95% CI 1.25-14.1, p<0.02, log-rank test). Conclusions: In this small study, using FAST to isolate CTCs, low expression of ERCC1 on evaluable CTCs correlated with increased PFS in patients with metastatic NSCLC who received platinum chemotherapy. A larger, prospective study to validate these retrospective results is warranted.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4054-4054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milind M. Javle ◽  
Rachna T. Shroff ◽  
Gauri R. Varadhachary ◽  
Robert A. Wolff ◽  
David R. Fogelman ◽  
...  

4054 Background: IGF-1 up-regulates PC proliferation and invasiveness through activation of PI3K/Akt signaling pathway and down-regulates PTEN. We investigated IGF-1 expression in tissue and blood as potential predictive markers in phase II study of IGF1R-directed monoclonal antibody, MK-0646 in APC. Prior phase I established the MTD of MK0646 at 5 mg/kg with gemcitabine (G) and erlotinib (E) and 10 mg/kg with G alone. Methods: Patients (pts) with stage IV, previously untreated APC, ECOG PS 0-1, adequate hematologic and organ function were enrolled. Arm A: G 1,000 mg/m2 over 100 min, weekly x 3, MK-0646 weekly x 4; Arm B: G 1000 mg/m2 and MK-0646 + E 100 mg daily. Arm C (control) was G 1,000 mg/m2 + E 100 mg. Cycles were repeated every 4 weeks. Pts were equally randomized in the 3 arms. Primary study objective was progression-free survival (PFS). Pre-treatment peripheral blood samples were measured for IGF-1 level by ELISA; archival core biopsies were analyzed for IGF-1 mRNA expression. RNA extraction from FFPE samples used Roche Transcriptor First Strand cDNA Synthesis Kit. TaqMan PreAmp technique was used to amplify target cDNA prior to TaqMan RT-PCR analysis. Cox proportional hazards model for PFS analyzed the interaction between tissue IGF-1 expression and treatment. Results: 50 pts were enrolled (A=15, B=16,C=16 pts, 3 ineligible). Median PFS of arms A, B and C were 5.5 months (95% CI: 3.9 – NA), 3.0 months (95% CI:1.8 – 5.6) and 2.0 months (95% CI: 1.8 – NA), respectively (log-rank test; p = 0.17). Median OS of A was 11.3 months (95% CI: 8.9 – NA), B 8.9 months (95% CI: 5.3 – NA) and C 5.7 months (95% CI: 2.0 – NA) (log-rank test; p = 0.44). 35 archival core biopsies were analyzed, 21 had adequate tissue for analysis. Using a Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for PFS, where IGF-1 was dichotomized at the median, there was a 76% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death in arm A as compared with the control (arm C) at high IGF-1 level (p = 0.16). When IGF-1 was fitted as a continuous variable, this reduction was 96% (p = 0.08). There was no correlation between tissue and serum IGF-1. Conclusions: Tissue expression of IGF-1 level may represent a promising predictive biomarker for IGF1R-directed therapy in APC.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Kang Li ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Ling Qin ◽  
Chaoran Zang ◽  
Ang Li ◽  
...  

Assessing the length of hospital stay (LOS) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia is helpful in optimizing the use efficiency of hospital beds and medical resources and relieving medical resource shortages. This retrospective cohort study of 97 patients was conducted at Beijing You’An Hospital between January 21, 2020, and March 21, 2020. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression based on the smallest Akaike information criterion value was used to select demographic and clinical variables to construct a nomogram. Discrimination, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and Kaplan–Meier curves with the log-rank test were used to assess the nomogram model. The median LOS was 13 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 10–18). Age, alanine aminotransferase, pneumonia, platelet count, and PF ratio (PaO2/FiO2) were included in the final model. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.76 ( 95 % confidence   interval   CI = 0.69 – 0.83 ), and the AUC was 0.88 ( 95 % CI = 0.82 – 0.95 ). The adjusted C-index was 0.75 ( 95 % CI = 0.67 – 0.82 ) and adjusted AUC 0.86 ( 95 % CI = 0.73 – 0.95 ), both after 1000 bootstrap cross internal validations. A Brier score of 0.11 ( 95 % CI = 0.07 – 0.15 ) and adjusted Brier score of 0.130 ( 95 % CI = 0.07 – 0.20 ) for the calibration curve showed good agreement. The AUC values for the nomogram at LOS of 10, 20, and 30 days were 0.79 ( 95 % CI = 0.69 – 0.89 ), 0.89 ( 95 % CI = 0.83 – 0.96 ), and 0.96 ( 95 % CI = 0.92 – 1.00 ), respectively, and the high fit score of the nomogram model indicated a high probability of hospital stay. These results confirmed that the nomogram model accurately predicted the LOS of patients with COVID-19. We developed and validated a nomogram that incorporated five independent predictors of LOS. If validated in a future large cohort study, the model may help to optimize discharge strategies and, thus, shorten LOS in patients with COVID-19.


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