Probabilistic Finite-Element Analysis of Airfield Pavements

Mechanistic pavement analysis and design based on either layered elastic analysis (LEA) or the finite element method (FEM) is increasingly being used to replace the empirical design process. The simplifying assumptions of a uniform, homogeneous layer of linear material used in LEA can render its analysis inaccurate for real pavement structures. The FEM is more attractive for structural analysis of pavements; the generality of the FEM also allows both the use of comprehensive material models and modeling of the spatial variability that exists in pavement systems. To date, spatial variability and uncertainty are ignored in pavement system finite element analyses. Ignoring spatial variability and uncertainty implies a false sense of accuracy in the results and can lead to inaccurate assessment of the pavement. The first application of the probabilistic finite element method to pavement response analysis and life prediction and the first investigation of the effects of spatial variability on pavement life prediction are presented. It is concluded that the probabilistic FEA, with spatial variability, is a more accurate representation of the true physical condition and leads to results that are less conservative than those obtained with probabilistic LEA.