Seasonal temperature variability during the past 1600 years recorded in historical documents and varved lake sediment profiles from northeastern China

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 785-792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Chu ◽  
Qing Sun ◽  
Xiaohua Wang ◽  
Meimei Liu ◽  
Yuan Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Historical Documents ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Warm Winter ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Extreme Cold

Seasonal temperature variability over longer timescales could offer new insights into understanding different forcing factors and response processes in the climate system. Here we report an alkenone-based temperature reconstruction for growing season over the past 1600 years from the varved sediment in Lake Sihailongwan, northeastern China. The most notable cold spells occurred during the periods ad 480–860, ad 1260–1300, ad 1510–1570 and ad 1800–1900 with a temperature decrease of about 1°C compared with the 20th century. Based on the historical evidence such as ‘snow or frost in the summertime’ and ‘no ice during the wintertime’, we compile extreme cold summer events and warm winter events over the past 1600 years. The ‘Little Ice Age’ time period experienced more extreme cold summer/warm winter events, while the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ had milder winters. Comparatively, the natural proxy data show a general similar pattern with historical documents at decadal time scales, except for between ad 1620 and 1720. Our results show multidecadal to centennial variations in seasonal temperature, possibly caused by interactions of external natural forcing and atmosphere–ocean circulations.

scholarly journals A 368-year maximum temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring data in the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1485-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
Binde Guo ◽  
Xiaochun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. We present a reconstruction of July–August mean maximum temperature variability based on a chronology of tree-ring widths over the period AD 1646–2013 in the northern part of the northwestern Sichuan Plateau (NWSP), China. A regression model explains 37.1 % of the variance of July–August mean maximum temperature during the calibration period from 1954 to 2012. Compared with nearby temperature reconstructions and gridded land surface temperature data, our temperature reconstruction had high spatial representativeness. Seven major cold periods were identified (1708–1711, 1765–1769, 1818–1821, 1824–1828, 1832–1836, 1839–1842, and 1869–1877), and three major warm periods occurred in 1655–1668, 1719–1730, and 1858–1859 from this reconstruction. The typical Little Ice Age climate can also be well represented in our reconstruction and clearly ended with climatic amelioration at the late of the 19th century. The 17th and 19th centuries were cold with more extreme cold years, while the 18th and 20th centuries were warm with less extreme cold years. Moreover, the 20th century rapid warming was not obvious in the NWSP mean maximum temperature reconstruction, which implied that mean maximum temperature might play an important and different role in global change as unique temperature indicators. Multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis revealed significant periodicities of 170-, 49–114-, 25–32-, 5.7-, 4.6–4.7-, 3.0–3.1-, 2.5-, and 2.1–2.3-year quasi-cycles at a 95 % confidence level in our reconstruction. Overall, the mean maximum temperature variability in the NWSP may be associated with global land–sea atmospheric circulation (e.g., ENSO, PDO, or AMO) as well as solar and volcanic forcing.

scholarly journals Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevation Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 2277-2308
Author(s):  
R. de Jong ◽  
L. von Gunten ◽  
A. Maldonado ◽  
M. Grosjean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Southern South America ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb and 14C dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S/70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and Southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca AD 1400, long term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

scholarly journals A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Wang ◽  
Jianhui Chen ◽  
Shengda Zhang ◽  
David D. Zhang ◽  
Zongli Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Societal Implications ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Long-term, high-resolution temperature records which combine an unambiguous proxy and precise dating are rare in China. In addition, the societal implications of past temperature change on a regional scale have not been sufficiently assessed. Here, based on the modern relationship between chironomids and temperature, we use fossil chironomid assemblages in a precisely dated sediment core from Gonghai Lake to explore temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China. Subsequently, we address the possible regional societal implications of temperature change through a statistical analysis of the occurrence of wars. Our results show the following. (1) The mean annual temperature (TANN) was relatively high during 4000–2700 cal yr BP, decreased gradually during 2700–1270 cal yr BP and then fluctuated during the last 1270 years. (2) A cold event in the Period of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period (STWP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) can all be recognized in the paleotemperature record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. This suggests that our chironomid-inferred temperature record for the Gonghai Lake region is representative. (3) Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature, and the relationship is a good example of the potential societal implications of temperature change on a regional scale.

scholarly journals Variations in surface area of six ice aprons in the Mont-Blanc massif since the Little Ice Age

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (259) ◽  
pp. 777-789
Author(s):  
Grégoire Guillet ◽  
Ludovic Ravanel
Keyword(s):  
Surface Area ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Mont Blanc Massif

AbstractDeglaciation of high mountain rockwalls alters slope stability as rockwalls become more sensitive to modifications in environmental factors (e.g. seasonal temperature variations). In the past decades, increasing efforts focused on studying deglaciated Alpine rockwalls. Yet, currently deglaciating rockfaces remain unstudied. Here, we quantify surface area variations of massive ice bodies lying on high mountain rockwalls (ice aprons) in the French sector of the Mont Blanc massif between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and 2018. Surface area estimates are computed from terrestrial and aerial oblique photographs via photogrammetry. This technique allows using photographs taken without scientific intent, and to tap into diverse historical or recent photographic catalogs. We derive an ice apron surface area model from precipitation records and the positive degree-days. The studied ice aprons shrank from 1854 to the 1950s, before expanding until the end of the 1990s. The beginning of the 21st century shows a decrease in surface area, leading to the complete melt of one of the studied ice aprons in 2017. Observed variations correlate with modeled surface area, suggesting strong sensitivity of ice aprons to changes in climatic variables. By studying site-specific correlations, we explore the importance of local drivers over the balance of ice aprons.

scholarly journals Influence of solar variability, CO<sub>2</sub> and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Servonnat ◽  
P. Yiou ◽  
M. Khodri ◽  
D. Swingedouw ◽  
S. Denvil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000–1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.106 km2, i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. This study suggests that regional reconstructions of the temperature between 1000 and 1850 AD are likely to show weak signatures of solar, CO2 and orbital forcings compared to internal variability.

scholarly journals Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevation Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1921-1932 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. de Jong ◽  
L. von Gunten ◽  
A. Maldonado ◽  
M. Grosjean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Southern South America ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
The Past ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

scholarly journals Influence of solar variability, CO<sub>2</sub> and orbital forcing during the last millennium in the IPSLCM4 model

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 421-460
Author(s):  
J. Servonnat ◽  
P. Yiou ◽  
M. Khodri ◽  
D. Swingedouw ◽  
S. Denvil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000–1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.106 km2, i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. The study of the SNR and local impacts of the forcings suggests that individual temperature reconstructions taken from random location around the Globe are potentially weakly affected by a linear response to external forcings.

Vegetation and environment changes inferred from pollen records since 3000 cal. yr BP in Kanas wetland, Xinjiang

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 907-916
Author(s):  
Yumei Li ◽  
Yun Zhang ◽  
Zhaochen Kong ◽  
Long Zhao ◽  
Li Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
The Past ◽  
North Xinjiang ◽  
Pollen Records

Abstract Aims Climate change can significantly affect the vegetation worldwide. Thus, paleovegetation and paleoclimate reconstruction should consider the quantitative relationship between modern vegetation and climate. The specific objectives of this study were (i) to assess the influence of environmental variables on pollen assemblages in the Kanas region, (ii) to reconstruct the evolution of vegetation over the past 3000 years using pollen records and (iii) to quantify historical climate change (including mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation) using a weighted averaging partial least squares regression method (WAPLS) applied to fossil pollen data from the Kanas wetland in Xinjiang, China. Methods A total of 65 surface and 50 fossil samples were collected from the Kanas wetland and analysed for 14C, pollen and grain size. By combining these data with those obtained from 214 samples of surface pollen assemblages in north Xinjiang, the late Holocene climate was reconstructed using a WAPLS model. Important Findings The vegetation in Kanas was dominated by forest for the past 3000 years, undergoing an arbour-vegetation transition from predominantly pine to spruce over that period. The WAPLS model showed that the paleoclimate progressed from cold-wet to warm-dry and subsequently back to cold-wet. Prior to 1350 calibrated years before the present (cal. yr BP), the climate of Kanas was cold and wet, and conditions became increasingly warm and dry until 870 cal. yr BP. The temperature reconstruction model indicated that a ‘Little Ice Age’ occurred ~380 cal. yr BP. These data will help us improve the understanding of abrupt climate change and provide important information regarding the prediction of climate.

scholarly journals TSUNAMI THREAT EVALUATION BY HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS, NUMERICAL MODEL AND STOCHASTIC MODEL

1986 ◽  
Vol 1 (20) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Shigehisa Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Historical Documents ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period

An evaluation of local tsunami threat was studied first refering to the historical documents and the catalogs. Secondly, an example of a numerical model of a finite difference method was discussed in relation to problems for reproducing the past local tsunamis and predicting a forthcoming tsunami. Lastly, a stochastic model was utilized in order to evaluate an exceedance probability of tsunami occurrencein an interested time period at an interesting local area where the concerened information or prediction was in need. The evaluation of a local tsunami threat is useful to get a more effective measure for the tsunami warning system and for protection works.

scholarly journals A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Wang ◽  
Jianhui Chen ◽  
Shengda Zhang ◽  
David D. Zhang ◽  
Zongli Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Societal Implications ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Long-term, high-resolution temperature records which combine an unambiguous proxy and precise dating are rare in China. In addition, the societal implications of past temperature change on regional scale have not been sufficiently assessed. Here, based on the modern relationship between chironomids and temperature, we use fossil chironomid assemblages in a precisely-dated sediment core from Gonghai Lake to explore temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China. Subsequently, we address the possible regional societal implications of temperature change through a statistical analysis of the occurrence of wars. Our results show that: (1) the mean annual temperature (TANN) was relatively high from 4000–2700 cal yr BP, decreased gradually from 2700–1270 cal yr BP, and then fluctuated drastically during the last 1270 years. (2) A cold climatic event in the Era of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period (STWP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) can all be recognized in the paleotemperature record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. This suggests that our chironomid-inferred temperature record for the Gonghai Lake region is representative. (3) Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature, and the relationship is a good example of the potential societal implications of temperature change on a regional scale.

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