scholarly journals Continuously updated network meta-analysis and statistical monitoring for timely decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1312-1330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriani Nikolakopoulou ◽  
Dimitris Mavridis ◽  
Matthias Egger ◽  
Georgia Salanti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Testing ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Statistical Monitoring ◽  
Made In

Pairwise and network meta-analysis (NMA) are traditionally used retrospectively to assess existing evidence. However, the current evidence often undergoes several updates as new studies become available. In each update recommendations about the conclusiveness of the evidence and the need of future studies need to be made. In the context of prospective meta-analysis future studies are planned as part of the accumulation of the evidence. In this setting, multiple testing issues need to be taken into account when the meta-analysis results are interpreted. We extend ideas of sequential monitoring of meta-analysis to provide a methodological framework for updating NMAs. Based on the z-score for each network estimate (the ratio of effect size to its standard error) and the respective information gained after each study enters NMA we construct efficacy and futility stopping boundaries. A NMA treatment effect is considered conclusive when it crosses an appended stopping boundary. The methods are illustrated using a recently published NMA where we show that evidence about a particular comparison can become conclusive via indirect evidence even if no further trials address this comparison.

scholarly journals Conditional power of antidepressant network meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Holper
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Dropout Rate ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Hamilton Depression Scale ◽  
Conditional Power ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Antidepressant Treatments

Abstract Background Conditional power of network meta-analysis (NMA) can support the planning of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing medical interventions. Conditional power is the probability that updating existing inconclusive evidence in NMA with additional trial(s) will result in conclusive evidence, given assumptions regarding trial design, anticipated effect sizes, or event probabilities. Methods The present work aimed to estimate conditional power for potential future trials on antidepressant treatments. Existing evidence was based on a published network of 502 RCTs conducted between 1979-2018 assessing acute antidepressant treatment in major depressive disorder (MDD). Primary outcomes were efficacy in terms of the symptom change on the Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD) and tolerability in terms of the dropout rate due to adverse events. The network compares 21 antidepressants consisting of 231 relative treatment comparisons, 164 (efficacy) and 127 (tolerability) of which are currently assumed to have inconclusive evidence. Results Required sample sizes to achieve new conclusive evidence with at least 80% conditional power were estimated to range between N = 894 - 4190 (efficacy) and N = 521 - 1246 (tolerability). Otherwise, sample sizes ranging between N = 49 - 485 (efficacy) and N = 40 - 320 (tolerability) may require stopping for futility based on a boundary at 20% conditional power. Optimizing trial designs by considering multiple trials that contribute both direct and indirect evidence, anticipating alternative effect sizes or alternative event probabilities, may increase conditional power but required sample sizes remain high. Antidepressants having the greatest conditional power associated with smallest required sample sizes were identified as those on which current evidence is low, i.e., clomipramine, levomilnacipran, milnacipran, nefazodone, and vilazodone, with respect to both outcomes. Conclusions The present results suggest that conditional power to achieve new conclusive evidence in ongoing or future trials on antidepressant treatments is low. Limiting the use of the presented conditional power analysis are primarily due to the estimated large sample sizes which would be required in future trials as well as due to the well-known small effect sizes in antidepressant treatments. These findings may inform researchers and decision-makers regarding the clinical relevance and justification of research in ongoing or future antidepressant RCTs in MDD.

scholarly journals Obesity and Periodontal Disease: A Narrative Review on Current Evidence and Putative Molecular Links

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 526-536
Author(s):  
Federica Di Spirito ◽  
Ludovico Sbordone ◽  
Vincenzo Pilone ◽  
Francesco D’Ambrosio
Keyword(s):  
Periodontal Disease ◽  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Literature Search ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Clinical Criteria ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Background: Obesity represents one of the main health problems worldwide and is considered a risk factor for several diseases, including periodontitis, which is a microbially-associated inflammatory disease affecting the tooth-supporting structures. Objective: The aim of this review was to report the current direct and indirect evidence concerning the possible association between obesity and periodontitis and their putative molecular links. Methods: A literature search was conducted between January 1999 and September 2019, in PubMed/MEDLINE and Science Direct databases, using pertinent keyword combined by Boolean operators. Through a multi-step screening process (literature search; articles title and abstract evaluation and full-text reading), studies fitting inclusion/exclusion criteria were considered for the review. Results: 35 studies were included in the present review (17 observational studies; 7 systematic reviews; 11 systematic reviews with meta-analysis), focusing on the direct and indirect evidence of the possible association between obesity and periodontitis and their potential etiopathogenic molecular links Conclusion: Although the majority of the studies reported a positive association between obesity and periodontitis, the heterogeneity of the classification criteria and of the clinical parameters employed in the studies for both obesity and periodontitis evaluation, complicated the comparison of the results, thus considered inconclusive. Although several putative molecular pathogenic links between obesity and periodontitis have been highlighted, further studies, with longer follow-ups and with homogeneous clinical criteria, are needed to better understand the putative relation between obesity and periodontal disease.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Reminiscence Therapy on Alleviating Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Liu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Yifan Lou ◽  
Wei Zhou ◽  
Feng Tong
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Reminiscence Therapy ◽  
Group Reminiscence

Objective: Depression is one of the most common problems faced by older adults. Reminiscence therapy, defined as using the recall of past events, feelings, and thoughts facilitating pleasure, is one type of psychotherapy that could alleviate depressive feelings among older adults, improve their quality of life, and help them live independently. Reminiscence therapy originated from geriatric psychiatry, and is an effective non-pharmacological intervention that could be structured or unstructured and be conducted individually or in a group. The current systematic review was designed to summarize and review existing evidence on the effect of reminiscence therapy on depression in older adults.Methods: We conducted a systematic review from January 2000 to Mar 2021 using 10 electronic databases in English and Chinese languages, including Medline, Embase, Cinahl, PsychInfo, Cochrane, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Science Direct, CNKI, and WANFANG. We excluded studies that didn't use randomized controlled trials (RCT) from the meta-analysis. The selected studies were scored using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The RevMan 5.0 was used in subgroup analysis depending on how the interventions were classified.Results: We extracted 527 studies based on keyword searches, of which 10 RCTs met inclusion criteria were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis yielded high heterogeneity, and the analyses of significant subgroups showed that reminiscence therapy has a significant effect on relieving depressive symptoms in older adults. Reminiscence therapy benefits older adults with chronic illness and those on antidepressants as well. The effect and cost-effectiveness of group reminiscence therapy were higher than individual reminiscence therapy. And some specific types of group reminiscence therapy have a significant effect on improving depression and secondary outcomes, including life satisfaction. Although the effectiveness of structured and unstructured group reminiscence on depression has no significant differences according to current evidence, the structured therapy is more replicable, generalizable, and user-friendly due to its detailed protocol for new therapists. Furthermore, reminiscence therapy is more effective for older women and older adults with more severe depressive symptoms.Conclusion: Reminiscence therapy significantly increased older adults' remission from depression and quality of life immediately after the intervention. However, the evidence-based protocol and implementation of reminiscence interventions need to be further developed and standardized to facilitate global use. Moreover, it remains unclear on the long-term effect of reminiscence therapy. Based on the limitations of the current study, more rigorous evidence is needed from studies with large sample sizes, RCT design, and longer follow-up periods. Future studies could also explore the effect of different types of reminiscence therapy. Furthermore, qualitative data should be included to better understand older adults' narrative and experiences with reminiscence therapy. Future studies could also investigate the impact of reminiscence therapy on older relatives as a part of outcome measure to explore the efficacious mechanism of reminiscence therapy in alleviating older adults' depressive symptoms.

scholarly journals Predictive P-score for treatment ranking in Bayesian network meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristine J. Rosenberger ◽  
Rui Duan ◽  
Yong Chen ◽  
Lifeng Lin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Future Study ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Posterior Distributions ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Common Value ◽  
Multiple Treatments ◽  
Different Sources

Abstract Background Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a widely used tool to compare multiple treatments by synthesizing different sources of evidence. Measures such as the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) and the P-score are increasingly used to quantify treatment ranking. They provide summary scores of treatments among the existing studies in an NMA. Clinicians are frequently interested in applying such evidence from the NMA to decision-making in the future. This prediction process needs to account for the heterogeneity between the existing studies in the NMA and a future study. Methods This article introduces the predictive P-score for informing treatment ranking in a future study via Bayesian models. Two NMAs were used to illustrate the proposed measure; the first assessed 4 treatment strategies for smoking cessation, and the second assessed treatments for all-grade treatment-related adverse events. For all treatments in both NMAs, we obtained their conventional frequentist P-scores, Bayesian P-scores, and predictive P-scores. Results In the two examples, the Bayesian P-scores were nearly identical to the corresponding frequentist P-scores for most treatments, while noticeable differences existed for some treatments, likely owing to the different assumptions made by the frequentist and Bayesian NMA models. Compared with the P-scores, the predictive P-scores generally had a trend to converge toward a common value of 0.5 due to the heterogeneity. The predictive P-scores’ numerical estimates and the associated plots of posterior distributions provided an intuitive way for clinicians to appraise treatments for new patients in a future study. Conclusions The proposed approach adapts the existing frequentist P-score to the Bayesian framework. The predictive P-score can help inform medical decision-making in future studies.

Best Interests Decisions in Clinical Practice: Reviewing the Current Evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. 176-176
Author(s):  
Emanuele Valenti ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
End Of Life Care ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Best Interests ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Clinical Settings ◽  
Healthcare Ethics ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Made In

"‘Best interests’ decisions are often needed when patients lack capacity to make their own healthcare decisions. Despite the ubiquity of ‘best interests’, there remains considerable ambiguity about what best interests are and how the standard should be applied, alongside a lack of understanding about how best interests decisions are actually made in clinical practice. Balancing Best Interests in Healthcare Ethics and Law (BABEL) is an interdisciplinary project, funded by a Wellcome Trust Collaborative Award, which aims to explore best interests decision-making in healthcare, both empirically and normatively. In this paper, we outline initial findings from a narrative review that asked, ‘what evidence do we have about how best interests decisions are made in clinical practice in England and Wales?’. Data were extracted from included papers using a standardised form, and then subjected to thematic analysis, focussing on what the papers told us about the process of decision-making, the stakeholders involved, the barriers and facilitators. Early results suggest we have some limited evidence about how best interests decisions are made in clinical settings, and the majority of this evidence concerns mental health and end-of-life care. Common factors taken into account in these decisions include: the patient’s clinical circumstances; risk assessment; the patient’s wishes; cost-effectiveness; avoiding harm; the patient’s well-being; autonomy; capacity assessment; and family’s wishes. "

Diagnosis of appendicitis in adults by ultrasonography or computed tomography: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adèle R. Weston ◽  
Terri J. Jackson ◽  
Stephen Blamey
Keyword(s):  
Computed Tomography ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Adult Patients ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Clinical Investigations ◽  
Need To Evaluate ◽  
Nonpregnant Adult

Objectives:The use of ultrasonography and computed tomography (CT) in the diagnosis of appendicitis in adult patients was compared.Methods:Systematic review and meta-analysis of current evidence in two clinical situations: unselected nonpregnant, adult patients with symptoms of appendicitis, and more selective use in only those patients who still have an equivocal diagnosis subsequent to routine clinical investigations.Results:Meta-analysis of eligible studies shows CT to have better sensitivity and specificity than ultrasound in both clinical situations.Conclusions:Application of these findings in clinical practice and/or policy would need to evaluate the better diagnostic performance of CT against its cost and availability. In addition, it is imperative that future studies be conducted in patient populations that are well-defined with respect to prior investigations. Sequelae of false-negative and false-positive diagnoses should also be evaluated.

scholarly journals Strategies for Reducing the Impact of Cycling on the Perineum in Healthy Males: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Litwinowicz ◽  
Marcin Choroszy ◽  
Anna Wróbel
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Alcock’S Syndrome ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Healthy Males

Abstract Introduction Perineal pressure associated with bicycle riding is the cause of several genitourinary pathologies, most notably Alcock’s syndrome and subsequent perineal numbness. The possible link between cycling-induced perineal numbness and erectile dysfunction makes the development of strategies for perineal protection in bicycle users critical. Objective To assess the effectiveness of strategies for reducing the impact of cycling on the perineum in healthy males. Methods We have conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies examining various means of reducing the impact of cycling on the perineum under the PRISMA guidelines. Results Out of 2217 screened studies, 22 met our inclusion criteria, and 6 qualified for meta-analysis. The strategies included various designs of saddles, changes in the cycling position, seat shock absorber, shorts with different padding, using the recumbent bike. Using the no-nose saddle and recumbent bike resulted in a significant reduction of perineal pressure and higher penile oxygen pressure compared with a standard saddle. Indirect evidence supports the protective effect of standing on the pedals every few minutes during cycling. More evidence is needed to support—or dismiss—other strategies. Conclusions Current evidence supports the use of no-nose saddles as a mean to reduce the negative impact of cycling on the perineum in healthy males at the cost of worse stability and increase of posterior seat pressure. Standing on the pedals every ten minutes might be an effective and potentially widely applicable strategy. The use of a recumbent bike appears to protect the perineum, but several concerns prevent its widespread use.

scholarly journals Dynamic meta-analysis: a method of using global evidence for local decision making

BMC Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gorm E. Shackelford ◽  
Philip A. Martin ◽  
Amelia S. C. Hood ◽  
Alec P. Christie ◽  
Elena Kulinskaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Classification Systems ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making ◽  
Global Evidence

Abstract Background Meta-analysis is often used to make generalisations across all available evidence at the global scale. But how can these global generalisations be used for evidence-based decision making at the local scale, if the global evidence is not perceived to be relevant to local decisions? We show how an interactive method of meta-analysis—dynamic meta-analysis—can be used to assess the local relevance of global evidence. Results We developed Metadataset (www.metadataset.com) as a proof-of-concept for dynamic meta-analysis. Using Metadataset, we show how evidence can be filtered and weighted, and results can be recalculated, using dynamic methods of subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and recalibration. With an example from agroecology, we show how dynamic meta-analysis could lead to different conclusions for different subsets of the global evidence. Dynamic meta-analysis could also lead to a rebalancing of power and responsibility in evidence synthesis, since evidence users would be able to make decisions that are typically made by systematic reviewers—decisions about which studies to include (e.g. critical appraisal) and how to handle missing or poorly reported data (e.g. sensitivity analysis). Conclusions In this study, we show how dynamic meta-analysis can meet an important challenge in evidence-based decision making—the challenge of using global evidence for local decisions. We suggest that dynamic meta-analysis can be used for subject-wide evidence synthesis in several scientific disciplines, including agroecology and conservation biology. Future studies should develop standardised classification systems for the metadata that are used to filter and weight the evidence. Future studies should also develop standardised software packages, so that researchers can efficiently publish dynamic versions of their meta-analyses and keep them up-to-date as living systematic reviews. Metadataset is a proof-of-concept for this type of software, and it is open source. Future studies should improve the user experience, scale the software architecture, agree on standards for data and metadata storage and processing, and develop protocols for responsible evidence use.

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