scholarly journals “Counting votes” in public responses to scientific disputes

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 594-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branden B. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dark Matter ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Dietary Salt ◽  
Scientific Dispute ◽  
Vote Counting

Publicized disputes between groups of scientists may force lay choices about groups’ credibility. One possible, little studied, credibility cue is vote-counting (proportions of scientists on either side): for example, “97%” of climate scientists believe in anthropogenic climate change. An online sample of 2600 Americans read a mock article about a scientific dispute, in a 13 (proportions: 100%–0%, 99%–1%, … 50%–50%, … 1%–99%, 0%–100% for Positions A and B, respectively) × 8 (scenarios: for example, dietary salt, dark matter) between-person experiment. Respondents reported reactions to the dispute, attitudes toward the topic, and views on science. Proportional information indirectly affected judged agreement but less so topic or science responses, controlling for scenarios and moderators, whether by actual proportions or differing contrasts of “consensus” versus “near-consensus.” Given little empirical research with conflicting findings, even these low effect sizes warrant further research on how vote-counting might help laypeople deal with scientific disputes.

scholarly journals The fate of standing variation and new mutation under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Yueh Lu ◽  
Cheng-Ruei Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Extreme Environments ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Standing Variation ◽  
Novel Environments ◽  
Climatic Range ◽  
New Mutations

AbstractMany species face existence threat under anthropogenic climate change, and standing genetic variation was proposed as a way for sessile species to adapt to novel environments. However, it is still unknown whether standing genetic variants, being adaptive to current environmental variability, are sufficient to guarantee future survival. Here we investigate the relative importance of standing variation versus new mutations from the past to infer their future fate in nature. In the wild banana species Musa itinerans where the Taiwanese populations were ancient immigrants from the Chinese populations, new mutations exert larger effect size in precipitation-related variables, where Taiwan contains extreme environments beyond the ancestral climatic range, and new alleles have stronger association with novel environments. For temperature-related variables where Taiwan is within the ancestral climatic range, standing variants are more important than new mutations. The effect sizes of adaptive variants therefore differ under distinct environmental pressures, supporting theoretical predictions that natural selection favors new mutations with larger effect sizes in novel environments where the population is far from the adaptive peak. Despite their importance, large-effect variants also have higher mismatch and may be more vulnerable to future environmental perturbation, leaving minor-effect variants the main source of adaptive response to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our work provides a support in natural environment to the previous conclusions from theoretical modeling and microbial experiments in well-controlled lab conditions.

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Scopes Trial: Young-Earth Creationism, Creation Science, and the Evangelical Denial of Climate Change

Religions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
K. L. Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Biblical Authority ◽  
Scopes Trial ◽  
Creation Science ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
Young Earth Creationism ◽  
American Evangelicalism

In the century since the Scopes Trial, one of the most influential dogmas to shape American evangelicalism has been that of young-earth creationism. This article explains why, with its arm of “creation science,” young-earth creationism is a significant factor in evangelicals’ widespread denial of anthropogenic climate change. Young-earth creationism has become closely intertwined with doctrines such as the Bible’s divine authority and the Imago Dei, as well as with social issues such as abortion and euthanasia. Addressing this aspect of the environmental crisis among evangelicals will require a re-orientation of biblical authority so as to approach social issues through a hermeneutic that is able to acknowledge the reality and imminent threat of climate change.

scholarly journals Declarations of Dependence: On the Constitution of the Anthropocene

2020 ◽  
pp. 026327642097828
Author(s):  
Henrik Enroth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hannah Arendt ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Bruno Latour ◽  
The Public

As the gravity of anthropogenic climate change is dawning on humanity, essential political aspects of the climatic situation remain unexplored. This article argues that our entering the Anthropocene amounts to a constitutive moment: a moment in which new principles of coexistence are being declared. Drawing on, as well as critically engaging with, the work of Bruno Latour and Hannah Arendt, I introduce and explicate the metaphor declarations of dependence to make sense of what scientists, activists, academics and journalists are doing, in political terms, when they announce the Anthropocene. Theoretically as well as practically, this metaphor opens for a more helpful understanding of the fraught relationship between science and the public on the issue of anthropogenic climate change. I end by considering the possibility that this metaphor, literally construed, can help us make today the first day in the rest of our lives in the Anthropocene.

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