Climate change and the increase of human population will threaten conservation of Asian cobras

Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Because cobras often live near humans settlements, they are responsible for a large part of snakebite incidents and as such pose a challenge for public health systems. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is therefore important for both biological conservation and public health management. Here, we mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Our analyses reveal that cobras that are adapted to dry climates and inhabit islands have narrow climatic niches, while those of mainland species with larger geographic ranges are much wider. We also found a higher degree of fragmentation of future cobra distributions; within the next 50 years, Asian cobras will lose an average of around 60% of their current suitable climatic range. In the near future, Naja mandalayensis, N. sputatrix, N. samarensis, and N. philippinensis are likely to have no accessible suitable climate space left. Besides, a further increase of human populations in this region may also exponentially accelerate the effects of anthropogenic impacts. Solutions for conservation may involve awareness and appropriate use of law to overcome the rate of habitat degradation and the increase of animal trade of Asian cobras, while promoting investment on health systems to avoid snakebite fatalities.

Global mismatches between crop distributions and climate suitability

The selection of new crops and the migration of crop areas are two key strategies for agriculture to cope with climate change and ensure food security in the coming years. However, both rely on the assumption that climate is a major factor determining crop distributions worldwide. Here, we show that the current global distributions of nine of twelve major crops strongly diverge from their modelled climatic suitability for yields, after controlling for technology, agricultural management and soil conditions. Comparing the climatic niches of crops and their wild progenitors reveals that climate suitability is higher outside the native climatic range for six of these nine crops while all of them are farmed predominantly in their native ranges. These results show that agricultural strategies coping with climate change will be unsuccessful unless they fully consider the social, cultural, and ecological factors underpinning crop distributions.

Global mismatches between crop distributions and climate suitability

The selection of new crops and the migration of crop areas are two key strategies for agriculture to cope with climate change and ensure food security in the coming years. However, both rely on the assumption that climate is a major factor determining crop distributions worldwide. Here, we show that the current global distributions of nine of twelve major crops strongly diverge from their modelled climatic suitability for yields, after controlling for technology, agricultural management and soil conditions. Comparing the climatic niches of crops and their wild progenitors reveals that climate suitability is higher outside the native climatic range for six of these nine crops while all of them are farmed predominantly in their native ranges. These results show that agricultural strategies coping with climate change will be unsuccessful unless they fully consider the social, cultural, and ecological factors underpinning crop distributions.

The fate of standing variation and new mutation under climate change

Many species face existence threat under anthropogenic climate change, and standing genetic variation was proposed as a way for sessile species to adapt to novel environments. However, it is still unknown whether standing genetic variants, being adaptive to current environmental variability, are sufficient to guarantee future survival. Here we investigate the relative importance of standing variation versus new mutations from the past to infer their future fate in nature. In the wild banana species Musa itinerans where the Taiwanese populations were ancient immigrants from the Chinese populations, new mutations exert larger effect size in precipitation-related variables, where Taiwan contains extreme environments beyond the ancestral climatic range, and new alleles have stronger association with novel environments. For temperature-related variables where Taiwan is within the ancestral climatic range, standing variants are more important than new mutations. The effect sizes of adaptive variants therefore differ under distinct environmental pressures, supporting theoretical predictions that natural selection favors new mutations with larger effect sizes in novel environments where the population is far from the adaptive peak. Despite their importance, large-effect variants also have higher mismatch and may be more vulnerable to future environmental perturbation, leaving minor-effect variants the main source of adaptive response to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our work provides a support in natural environment to the previous conclusions from theoretical modeling and microbial experiments in well-controlled lab conditions.

POTENTIAL POSSIBILITIES OF PERMISSION OF THE ITALIAN LOCUST IN THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE XXI CENTURY IN CONNECTION WITH OBSERVED AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Estimates of the possibility of invasion of the dangerous herd pest the Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus L.) into various constituent entities of the Russian Federation are carried out. For that the calculations of the climatic predictor values and further modeling of the Italian locust climatic range were made for the periods 1951-1970 and 1991-2010, using the real climatic data, and for the periods of the middle and end of the XXI century (2035-2054 and 2080-2099) relative to the period 1981-2000. The future climate data were calculated on the base of the average model climate for 31 CMIP5 models with the development of a “moderate” scenario of anthropogenic impact on the Earth’s climate system RCP4.5. According to the data obtained, the climatic range of the Italian locust will expand significantly into the more northern and northeastern regions of our country, and individual foci can appear in the eastern, including Far Eastern, regions by the middle and the end of the XXI century. The expansion of the real range of Calliptamus italicus L., observed at the beginning of the XXI century, associated with the already occurred change in climatic conditions, is consistent with model calculations, and many regions of Russia that are part of the potential climatic model range of this locust pest have already become favorable for its location. Therefore it is necessary to monitor constantly the status of pest populations in areas adjacent to the northern and eastern borders of its range.

Climatic causes of the current expansion of the Italian locust range in Russia and neighboring countries

Modeling of climatic ranges of a dangerous locust pest - the Italian locust on the territory of Russia and neighboring countries over two periods: 1956-1975 and 1996-2015 was performed. Analysis of the constructed map scheme demonstrates expansion of the climatic range of the Italian locust mainly in the northern direction in the period 1996-2015 compared with the period 1956-1975 resulting from continuing trend of increase in mean global air temperature observed in recent decades. Obtained data can be used in monitoring locust pests in agriculture.

Mid-Devensian climate and landscape in England: new data from Finningley, South Yorkshire

While there is extensive evidence for the Late Devensian, less is known about Early and Middle Devensian (approx. 110–30 ka) climates and environments in the UK. The Greenland ice-core record suggests the UK should have endured multiple changes, but the terrestrial palaeo-record lacks sufficient detail for confirmation from sites in the British Isles. Data from deposits at Finningley, South Yorkshire, can help redress this. A channel with organic silts, dated 40 314–39 552 cal a BP, contained plant macrofossil and insect remains showing tundra with dwarf-shrub heath and bare ground. Soil moisture conditions varied from free draining to riparian, with ponds and wetter vegetated areas. The climate was probably low arctic with snow cover during the winter. Mutual climatic range (MCR), based on Coleoptera, shows the mean monthly winter temperatures of −22 to −2°C and summer ones of 8–14°C. Periglacial structures within the basal gravel deposits and beyond the glacial limits indicate cold-climate conditions, including permafrost. A compilation of MCR reconstructions for other Middle Devensian English sites shows that marine isotope stage 3—between 59 and 28 ka—experienced substantial variation in climate consistent with the Greenland ice-core record. The exact correlation is hampered by temporal resolution, but the Finningley site stadial at approximately 40 ka may correlate with the one of the Greenland stadials 7–11.