scholarly journals Marijuana Legalization and Crime Clearance Rates: Testing Proponent Assertions in Colorado and Washington State

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Makin ◽  
Dale W. Willits ◽  
Guangzhen Wu ◽  
Kathryn O. DuBois ◽  
Ruibin Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health And Safety ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance ◽  
Crime Reports ◽  
Public Health And Safety

The legalization of recreational cannabis in Washington state (I-502) and Colorado (A-64) created a natural experiment with ancillary unknowns. Of these unknowns, one of the more heavily debated is that of the potential effects on public health and safety. Specific to public safety, advocates of legalization expected improvements in police effectiveness through the reduction in police time and attention to cannabis offenses, thus allowing them to reallocate resources to more serious offenses. Using 2010 to 2015 Uniform Crime Reports data, the research undertakes interrupted time-series analysis on the offenses known to be cleared by arrest to create monthly counts of violent and property crime clearance rate as well as disaggregated counts by crime type. Findings suggest no negative effects of legalization on crime clearance rates. Moreover, evidence suggests some crime clearance rates have improved. Our findings suggest legalization has resulted in improvements in some clearance rates.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

Property Crime Clearance in Small Jurisdictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey J. Roth
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Police Departments ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Residential Instability ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Crime Clearance

Research on the factors that influence crime clearance rates has primarily studied violent crimes in large cities. However, property crimes are among the most commonly occurring and least frequently cleared offenses, and the majority of police departments in the United States serve small jurisdictions. Thus, this study undertook an examination of the predictors of clearance rates for burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft in a sample of agencies serving populations of 50,000 people or fewer. Independent variables included both policing factors (e.g., workload, funding, broken windows arrests) and social disorganization indicators (e.g., residential instability, poverty). Negative binomial regression analyses revealed variation in the significance of the predictors across the three crimes. Additionally, many predictors found to be influential in prior work were insignificant in this study, which suggests differences in the nature of crime clearance between large cities and smaller jurisdictions and a need for further research in this area.

scholarly journals Lockdown effect on COVID-19 incidence and death: Iran experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Sajad Delavari ◽  
Zahra Jamali ◽  
Mohsen Bayati
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: Countries are trying several policy options for decreasing the incidence and burden of the COVID-19. One of these strategies is a lockdown, complete closure, to reduce the risk of distributing disease via social interactions. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a three-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of the COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: Official daily data on COVID-19 incidence and death reported on the COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO) were extracted from September 1, 2020, to January 14, 2021. Data were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis via STATA 14 software. Results: Lockdown resulted in a significant reduction in the daily death from Covid-19 in the short-term (β=-139, P<0.01) and in the long-term (β=-12, P<0.01). Moreover, lockdown in the short-term insignificantly (β=-21.58, P=0.969), and in the long-term significantly (β=-317.31, P<0.01) reduced the Covid-19 daily incidence. Discussion: The results showed that the lockdown has a significant effect on incidence and death numbers. Therefore, it could be a suitable short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, its negative effects on households and businesses should be considered.

scholarly journals Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Crime Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
Yongyu Zeng ◽  
Steven Kemp
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Series Analysis

AbstractMuch research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

Investigative Resources and Crime Clearances: A Group-Based Trajectory Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
John L. Worrall
Keyword(s):  
Property Crime ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Trajectory Approach ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Crime Clearance ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Investigative Process

Past studies of crime clearance rates have largely ignored the role of investigators in the process. This omission is important because criminal investigation is essential to clearing crimes, particularly those in which offenders are not readily identifiable. Using data from 570 law enforcement agencies spanning a 13-year period from 2000 to 2012, this study developed group-based trajectories of violent and property crime clearance rates (an approach not taken in previous clearance rate research), then modeled group membership with two measures of investigative spending and one of the proportion of investigators in sampled agencies (“investigative resources”), while controlling for factors such as workload and crime type. Results from a series of multinomial regression models suggest investigative resources play only a marginal role in crime clearance trajectories. This finding is consistent with early detective research, including the classic RAND criminal investigative process study.

scholarly journals Cervical transcutaneous vagal nerve stimulation (ctVNS) improves human cognitive performance under sleep deprivation stress

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey K. McIntire ◽  
R. Andy McKinley ◽  
Chuck Goodyear ◽  
John P. McIntire ◽  
Rebecca D. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Nerve Stimulation ◽  
Safety Issue ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Vagal Nerve ◽  
Vagal Nerve Stimulation ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Pharmacological Interventions ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Electrical Neuromodulation ◽  
Public Health And Safety

AbstractFatigue is a pervasive public health and safety issue. Common fatigue countermeasures include caffeine or other chemical stimulants. These can be effective in limited circumstances but other non-pharmacological fatigue countermeasures such as non-invasive electrical neuromodulation have shown promise. It is reasonable to suspect that other types of non-invasive neuromodulation may be similarly effective or perhaps even superior. The objective of this research was to evaluate the efficacy of cervical transcutaneous vagal nerve stimulation (ctVNS) to mitigate the negative effects of fatigue on cognition and mood. Two groups (active or sham stimulation) of twenty participants in each group completed 34 h of sustained wakefulness. The ctVNS group performed significantly better on arousal, multi-tasking, and reported significantly lower fatigue ratings compared to sham for the duration of the study. CtVNS could be a powerful fatigue countermeasure tool that is easy to administer, long-lasting, and has fewer side-effects compared to common pharmacological interventions.

The effects of centralizing cancer surgery on postoperative mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 135581962110089
Author(s):  
Roberto Grilli ◽  
Federica Violi ◽  
Maria Chiara Bassi ◽  
Massimiliano Marino
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Meta Regression Analysis ◽  
After Cancer

Objectives To review the evidence of the effects of centralization of cancer surgery on postoperative mortality. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Cochrane and Scopus (up to November 2019) for studies that (i) assessed the effects of centralization of cancer surgery policies on in-hospital or 30-day mortality, or (ii) described changes in both postoperative mortality for a surgical intervention and degree of centralization using reduction in the number of hospitals or increases in the proportion of patients undergoing cancer surgery at high volume hospitals as proxy. PRISMA guidelines were followed. We estimated pooled odds ratios (OR) and conducted meta-regression to assess the relationship between degree of centralization and mortality. Results A total of 41 studies met our inclusion criteria of which 15 evaluated the effect of centralization policies on postoperative mortality after cancer surgery and 26 described concurrent changes in the degree of centralization and postoperative mortality. Policy evaluation studies mainly used before-after designs (n = 13) or interrupted time series analysis (n = 2), mainly focusing on pancreatic, oesophageal and gastric cancer. All but one showed some degree of reduction in postoperative mortality, with statistically significant effects demonstrated by six studies. The pooled odds ratio for centralization policy effect was 0.68 (95% Confidence interval: 0.54–0.85; I2 = 80%). Meta-regression analysis of the 26 descriptive studies found that an increase of the proportion of patients treated at high volume hospitals was associated with greater reduction in postoperative mortality. Conclusions Centralization of cancer surgery is associated with reduced postoperative mortality. However, existing evidence tends to be of low quality and estimates of the effect size are likely inflated. There is a need for prospective studies using more robust approaches, and for centralization efforts to be accompanied by well-designed evaluations of their effectiveness.

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