scholarly journals Making biased but better predictions: The trade-offs strategists face when they learn and use heuristics

2019 ◽  
pp. 147612701986964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Ehrig ◽  
Jens Schmidt

The heuristics strategists use to make predictions about key decision variables are often learned from only a small sample of observations, which leads to a risk of inappropriate generalization when strategists misjudge regularities. Building on the statistical learning literature, we show how strategists can mitigate this risk. Strategies to learn heuristics that accept a bias, that is, a systematic deviation of predictions from actual outcomes, can outperform unbiased strategies because they can reduce the variance component of prediction error: the degree to which random fluctuations in observational data are inappropriately generalized. We demonstrate how strategists who are aware of the trade-off between bias and variance can learn heuristics more effectively if they are also aware of the relevant characteristics of their learning environment. We discuss the implications of our results for our understanding of heuristics, (dynamic) capabilities, and managerial cognitive capabilities, and we outline opportunities for empirical work.

Author(s):  
Laura E. Ghosh ◽  
Ahmed Abdelmohsen ◽  
Khaled A. El-Rayes ◽  
Yanfeng Ouyang

Temporary traffic control (TTC) strategies have been widely adopted to maintain traffic flow while ensuring TTC costs remain a reasonable portion of construction budgets. As travel demand approaches the capacity of an existing facility, implementation of an appropriate TTC strategy is increasingly important not only because lane closures on these facilities exacerbate existing delay, but also because speeds associated with congestion contribute disproportionately and non-linearly to roadway emissions produced throughout the lifetime of the roadway. To enable stakeholders to make informed and transparent decisions on selecting a TTC strategy so as to balance the trade-offs among construction cost, traffic delay, and energy consumption, this paper discusses the development of an integrated model that identifies the Pareto-optimal front when construction start time, construction duration, lateral clearance, and width of shoulder borrowed as a through lane are considered as decision variables. A test implementation of the model suggests that when construction budgets are low, strategies for decreasing traffic delay differ significantly from those for decreasing energy consumption; however, as construction budgets increase, the objectives on traffic delay and energy consumption align much better.


2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Lu ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Mark Goh ◽  
Robert De Souza

Purpose The ramp-up in humanitarian logistics operations is a stage when the demand surges, often at the start of an emergency. In response, agility is a key strategy used by the humanitarian organizations (HOs). However, the HOs are constrained by their existing resources and have to respond in the ramp-up process under their resource dependency. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework on agility-building strategies used by HOs for the ramp-up. Design/methodology/approach This study applies both the dynamic capabilities perspective and resource dependence theory to humanitarian relief operations, and develops four testable propositions to explore the agility-building strategies of the HOs for the ramp-up process. A multiple-case study is conducted on six international HOs operating in Indonesia to verify them, in addition to an extensive literature search. Findings The case study shows that the human resource management, pre-positioning, standardization and supplier management of the HOs are all related to their resources and environment in the ramp-up process. The authors highlight the practical differences between the few super large, resource rich and centralized HOs with the second-tier HOs. Research limitations/implications Given the small sample size and single country as the site of study, some findings may not be applicable to the other HOs or in other regions. Practical implications The propositions could be applicable to other HOs operating under similar environments, and potentially to the commercial enterprises operating in a highly volatile environment with severe resource scarcity. Originality/value This study provides new insights into ramp-up operations and into how HOs build their agility and reduce their resource dependencies. Theoretically, the paper applies two established theories in the strategic management literature to a new field.


2015 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 1641-1661 ◽  
Author(s):  
María del Mar Alonso-Almeida ◽  
Kerstin Bremser ◽  
Josep Llach

Purpose – This study aims to examine the development of dynamic capabilities and their effect on the competitive advantage of restaurants in 2009, one year after the beginning of the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach – The restaurants were personally surveyed to discern the importance of proactive and reactive strategies for the organization. The resulting two organizational effects – cost cutting and the development of dynamic capabilities – were tested for their influence on competitive advantage. Findings – The findings show that both proactive and reactive strategies reduce costs; however, only proactive strategies develop dynamic capabilities that improve competitive advantage. Research limitations/implications – The conclusions are drawn from a small sample of restaurants in Madrid, the capital of Spain. Given that Madrid enjoys a higher standard of living and greater business expenditures than other cities, the results may not be generalizable to the rest of the country or to other southern European capitals. Practical implications – Managers must use proactive strategies for companies to survive during times of crisis. A focus on proactive strategies will improve a company’s competitive position. Social implications – Policy makers should support the development of proactive strategies and provide an adequate infrastructure of counseling and network creation. Originality/value – To the best of our knowledge, no previous research specifically analyzes both the type of strategy deployed and its subsequent effect on dynamic capabilities and the consequences of the strategy on competitive advantage during a financial crisis.


Author(s):  
Demissie Damite Degato

The traditional approach to innovation assessment has mainly focused on the economic outcomes and failed to capture the ecological and social dimensions of sustainability. By giving high attention to the role of specific kind of innovation (technological innovation), there is little empirical work on whether combining different kinds of innovation leads to progress in social-ecological sustainability in developing countries. The sustainability orientation in the assessment of innovation performance becomes increasingly important for achieve successful transformation towards sustainability. The research question of this study is under what condition or combination of conditions the intervention for innovation reconciles the trade-offs between socioeconomic and ecological performance and thus improve progress towards sustainability in poor countries. Combing concepts and methods from literature on strategic corporate social responsibility (CSR), value chain upgrading, sustainability, and technological capability, this study identifies different mechanisms and conditions for building innovation capacity and then empirically evaluates the relationship between the degree of innovation capacity and the progress towards social-ecological sustainability by taking four cases from Ethiopia. The data for this study is collected using key informant interviews, focus group discussion, and biodiversity and innovation scorecard questionnaire. Mixed methods combing comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, biodiversity scorecard and qualitative comparative analysis are used for analysis. The study found that combing value chain innovation and green governance innovation either with technological upgrading or innovation platform learning are sufficient conditions for achieving social-ecological sustainability. We also found that innovation in green governance and in value chain are necessary conditions for sustainability. By developing and applying fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for measuring innovation capacity and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis for identifying necessary and sufficient conditions for sustainability, this study made an important methodological contribution to existing literature.


2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory R. Duffee ◽  
Richard H. Stanton

We study the finite-sample properties of some of the standard techniques used to estimate modern term structure models. For sample sizes and models similar to those used in most empirical work, we reach three surprising conclusions. First, while maximum likelihood works well for simple models, it produces strongly biased parameter estimates when the model includes a flexible specification of the dynamics of interest rate risk. Second, despite having the same asymptotic efficiency as maximum likelihood, the small-sample performance of Efficient Method of Moments (a commonly used method for estimating complicated models) is unacceptable even in the simplest term structure settings. Third, the linearized Kalman filter is a tractable and reasonably accurate estimation technique, which we recommend in settings where maximum likelihood is impractical.


2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reham A. Eltantawy

Purpose – This study aims to explore the necessary role of supply management (SM) resilience capabilities in making effective trade-offs to attain an ambidextrous state, i.e. the state of attaining exploitation and exploration with dexterity, or achieving high levels of both. Sustainability requires effective trade-offs among economic, environmental and social outcomes while maintaining the longevity of the buying firm. Existing literature highlights the difficulty of making effective trade-offs due to likely tensions between divergent demands, i.e. tensions between exploitative and explorative performance goals. Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual study extends insights from the dynamic capabilities approach to explore the nature of SM resilience and its role in attaining ambidexterity. Findings – This study proposes SM resilience as a multifaceted dynamic capability that is determined by two contrasting aspects of stability (engineering and ecological resilience) that aid the buyer’s firm to ambidextrously adapt and transform in turbulent environments. Practical implications – The study highlights the competencies and resilience capabilities that managers need to develop and maintain in pursuing an effective balance of exploitation and exploration in SM. Originality/value – The proposed framework extends existing SM sustainability frameworks by examining the nature and dimensionality of resilience and linking it to ambidexterity. The proposed framework provides a platform for the integration of theoretical aspects from various research streams; socio-ecological literature, dynamic capabilities and organizational ambidexterity.


2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Carauta ◽  
Affonso Amaral Dalla Libera ◽  
Anna Hampf ◽  
Rafael Felice Fan Chen ◽  
José Maria Ferreira Jardim Silveira ◽  
...  

To keep yield advances, farmers in Mato Grosso (MT) have been adopting several technological innovations. Therefore, agricultural production systems in MT have become complex and dynamic since farmers have to consider the increase of decision variables when planning and implementing their farming practices. These variables are widely spread across many distinct topics, bringing them together and summarizing information from diverse fields of research has become a difficult task in farmers’ decision-making process. Therefore, we performed an Integrated Assessment simulation experiment with a region-specific bio-economic component to assess trade-offs between different agricultural practices in a double cropping system. The simulation experiment was carried out with MPMAS, a multi-agent software package developed for simulating farm-based economic behavior and human-environment interactions in agriculture. Crop yields were simulated with the Model of Nitrogen and Carbon dynamics in Agro-ecosystems (MONICA). Our simulation results show a trade-off between lower soybean yields with the flexibility of double cropping when soybean with shorter maturity cycle is introduced. Results also captured regional differences in terms of land use share of different crops and farm configurations of double cropping. These results provide key insights into a farmer’s decision-making process depending on a multitude of decision variables.


Management ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Tuschke ◽  
Emma Buellet

As a relatively young, yet flagship discipline of strategic management, dynamic capabilities research has emerged as one of the central perspectives exploring the foundations of the achievement of sustainable competitive advantage, especially in the context of dynamic environments. Dynamic capabilities are deeply rooted in, and sometimes seen as an extension of, the resource-based view of the firm. The notion that competitive advantage both stems from the exploitation of current capabilities and the development of new ones was already vaguely conceptualized by prominent contributors of the resource-based view such as Edith Penrose and Birger Wernerfelt. However, the idea that there are special capabilities—dynamic capabilities—enabling organizations to build, integrate, or reconfigure their internal and external resource and competence base, was formerly conceptualized in the late 1990s as a separate yet connected stream of research (see Teece, et al. 1997—cited under Seminal Papers—which is titled “Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management”). The dynamic capabilities perspective is also strongly connected to evolutionary economics. This is why the field has focused for some time on the exploration of semi-automatic and path-dependent routines as the foundation of dynamic capabilities. However, proponents of the behavioral theory of the firm have criticized this approach and integrated the deliberate human element in the dynamic capabilities perspective (for an overview of the theoretical assumptions underpinning the dynamic capabilities perspective, see the article “Dynamic Capabilities and the Role of Managers in Business Strategy and Economic Performance”—Augier and Teece 2009, cited under Conceptual Refinements). As a result, various important debates emerged in the community and the field has been generally criticized for its ambiguity, inconsistency, and conflicting assumptions. This is exemplified by the important number of diverging conceptual contributions to the field, still up to this day, and by the relatively late materialization of empirical work. Nevertheless, the vast number of contributions illustrates the necessity to consider dynamism, which underlies the concept of dynamic capabilities, as a key component of competitive advantage and organizational adaption (see the separate Oxford Bibliographies in Management article “Organizational Adaptation”). The key contributors of the dynamic capabilities perspective in management research are, among others, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Constance Helfat, Margaret Peteraf, David Teece, and Sidney Winter. To support scholars to move toward a theory of dynamic capabilities, this bibliography provides an overview of the field, its origin and developments, while highlighting the conceptual and empirical problems that remain to be solved.


2000 ◽  
Vol 83 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas B Whitaker ◽  
Winston M Hagler ◽  
Francis G Giesbrecht ◽  
Anders S Johansson

Abstract The variability associated with testing wheat for deoxynivalenol (DON) was measured using a 0.454 kg sample, Romer mill, 25 g comminuted subsample, and the Romer Fluoroquant analytical method. The total variability was partitioned into sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variability components. Each variance component was a function of the DON concentration and equations were developed to predict each variance component using regression techniques. The effect of sample size, subsample size, and number of aliquots on reducing the variability of the DON test procedure was also determined. For the test procedure, the coefficient of variation (CV) associated with testing wheat at 5 ppm was 13.4%. The CVs associated with sampling, sample preparation, and analysis were 6.3, 10.0, and 6.3%, respectively. For the sample variation, a 0.454 kg sample was used; for the sample preparation variation, a Romer mill and a 25 g subsample were used; for the analytical variation, the Romer Fluoroquant method was used. The CVs associated with testing wheat are relatively small compared to the CV associated with testing other commodities for other mycotoxins, such as aflatoxin in peanuts. Even when the small sample size of 0.454 kg was used, the sampling variation was not the largest source of error as found in other mycotoxin test procedures.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Yao-Ping Peng ◽  
Ku-Ho Lin

Based on the dynamic capabilities view, this study first examines whether the co-existence of explorative and exploitative capabilities can directly cause organizational tensions. In addition, this study employs the combination of these two capabilities to examine how organizational ambidexterity affects organizational tensions. The research subjects consisted of high-tech firms in Taiwan developing new, high-tech products, and a total of 154 valid questionnaires were returned from these. A hierarchical multiple regression model was used for hypotheses testing. Our findings show that explorative capability is not statistically significant, but that exploitative capability significantly and positively influences organizational tensions. This study provides support for the strong moderating effect of environmental dynamism on the relationship between organizational ambidexterity and organizational tensions.


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