scholarly journals Should We or Should We Not Include Confidence Intervals in COVID-19 Death Forecasting? Evidence from a Survey Experiment

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992098568
Author(s):  
Jean-François Daoust ◽  
Frédérick Bastien
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Negative Bias ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Preventive Public Health ◽  
Citizens Attitudes

Forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic entails a great deal of uncertainty. The same way that we would like electoral forecasters to systematically include their confidence intervals to account for such uncertainty, we assume that COVID-19-related forecasts should follow that norm. Based on literature on negative bias, we may expect the presence of uncertainty to affect citizens’ attitudes and behaviours, which would in turn have major implications on how we should present these sensitive forecasts. In this research we present the main findings of a survey experiment where citizens were exposed to a projection of the total number of deaths. We manipulated the exclusion (and inclusion) of graphically depicted confidence intervals in order to isolate the average causal effect of uncertainty. Our results show that accounting for uncertainty does not change (1) citizens’ perceptions of projections’ reliability, nor does it affect (2) their support for preventive public health measures. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings.

scholarly journals COVID‐19 environmental transmission and preventive public health measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 333-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sotiris Vardoulakis ◽  
Meru Sheel ◽  
Aparna Lal ◽  
Darren Gray
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Environmental Transmission ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventive Public Health

scholarly journals Trust in science and experts during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Battiston ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Valentina Rotondi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Trust In Institutions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Over Time

Trust in science and experts is extremely important in times of epidemics to ensure compliance with public health measures. Yet little is known about how this trust evolves while an epidemic is underway. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of trust in science and experts in real-time as the high-impact epidemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19) unfolds in Italy, by drawing on digital trace data from Twitter and survey data collected online via Telegram and Facebook. Both Twitter and Telegram data point to initial increases in reliance on and information-seeking from scientists and health authorities with the diffusion of the disease. Consistent with these increases, using a separately fielded online survey we find that knowledge about health information linked to COVID-19 and support for containment measures was fairly widespread. Trust in science, relative to trust in institutions (e.g. local or national government), emerges as a consistent predictor of both knowledge and containment outcomes. However, over time and as the epidemic peaks, we detect a slowdown and turnaround in reliance and information-seeking from scientists and health authorities, which we interpret as signs of an erosion in trust. This is supported by a novel survey experiment, which finds that those holding incorrect beliefs about COVID-19 give no or lower importance to information about the virus when the source of such information is known to be scientific.

scholarly journals Trust in science and experts during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Battiston ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Valentina Rotondi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Trust In Institutions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Over Time

Trust in science and experts is extremely important in times of epidemics to ensure compliance with public health measures. Yet little is known about how this trust evolves while an epidemic is underway. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of trust in science and experts in real-time as the high-impact epidemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19) unfolds in Italy, by drawing on digital trace data from Twitter and survey data collected online via Telegram and Facebook. Both Twitter and Telegram data point to initial increases in reliance on and information-seeking from scientists and health authorities with the diffusion of the disease. Consistent with these increases, using a separately fielded online survey we find that knowledge about health information linked to COVID-19 and support for containment measures was fairly widespread. Trust in science, relative to trust in institutions (e.g. local or national government), emerges as a consistent predictor of both knowledge and containment outcomes. However, over time and as the epidemic peaks, we detect a slowdown and turnaround in reliance and information-seeking from scientists and health authorities, which we interpret as signs of an erosion in trust. This is supported by a novel survey experiment, which finds that those holding incorrect beliefs about COVID-19 give no or lower importance to information about the virus when the source of such information is known to be scientific.

Estimating the Magnitude of the Relation Between Bullying, E-Bullying, and Suicidal Behaviors Among United States Youth, 2015

Crisis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin S. Kuehn ◽  
Annelise Wagner ◽  
Jennifer Velloza
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Suicide ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Effects Of Bullying ◽  
Pc Algorithm ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Significant Covariates

Abstract. Background: Suicide is the second leading cause of death among US adolescents aged 12–19 years. Researchers would benefit from a better understanding of the direct effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide to inform intervention work. Aims: To explore the direct and indirect effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide attempts (SAs) and to estimate the magnitude of these effects controlling for significant covariates. Method: This study uses data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of US high school youth. We quantified the association between bullying and the likelihood of SA, after adjusting for covariates (i.e., sexual orientation, obesity, sleep, etc.) identified with the PC algorithm. Results: Bullying and e-bullying were significantly associated with SA in logistic regression analyses. Bullying had an estimated average causal effect (ACE) of 2.46%, while e-bullying had an ACE of 4.16%. Limitations: Data are cross-sectional and temporal precedence is not known. Conclusion: These findings highlight the strong association between bullying, e-bullying, and SA.

Pandemic Disease, Public Health, and Ethics

2019 ◽  
pp. 796-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell Smith ◽  
Ross Upshur
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Ethical Challenges ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Ethical Frameworks ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conducting Research

Infectious disease pandemics raise significant and novel ethical challenges to the organization and practice of public health. This chapter provides an overview of the salient ethical issues involved in preparing for and responding to pandemic disease, including those arising from deploying restrictive public health measures to contain and curb the spread of disease (e.g., isolation and quarantine), setting priorities for the allocation of scarce resources, health care workers’ duty to care in the face of heightened risk of infection, conducting research during pandemics, and the global governance of preventing and responding to pandemic disease. It also outlines ethical guidance from prominent ethical frameworks that have been developed to address these ethical issues and concludes by discussing some pressing challenges that must be addressed if ethical reflection is to make a meaningful difference in pandemic preparedness and response.

Communicable and Other Infectious Diseases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Frischhut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
European Union ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
And Control

This chapter discusses the most important features of EU law on infectious diseases. Communicable diseases not only cross borders, they also often require measures that cross different areas of policy because of different vectors for disease transmission. The relevant EU law cannot be attributed to one sectoral policy only, and thus various EU agencies participate in protecting public health. The key agency is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Other important agencies include the European Environment Agency; European Food Safety Authority; and the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency. However, while integration at the EU level has facilitated protection of the public's health, it also has created potential conflicts among the different objectives of the European Union. The internal market promotes the free movement of products, but public health measures can require restrictions of trade. Other conflicts can arise if protective public health measures conflict with individual human rights. The chapter then considers risk assessment and the different tools of risk management used in dealing with the challenges of infectious diseases. It also turns to the external and ethical perspective and the role the European Union takes in global health.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Southeast Asia: Implications for workers and unions

2021 ◽  
pp. 002218562110000
Author(s):  
Michele Ford ◽  
Kristy Ward
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
First Year ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The Public ◽  
Market Effects ◽  
Export Orientation ◽  
Health Measures

The labour market effects in Southeast Asia of the COVID-19 pandemic have attracted considerable analysis from both scholars and practitioners. However, much less attention has been paid to the pandemic’s impact on legal protections for workers’ and unions’ rights, or to what might account for divergent outcomes in this respect in economies that share many characteristics, including a strong export orientation in labour-intensive industries and weak industrial relations institutions. Having described the public health measures taken to control the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam, this article analyses governments’ employment-related responses and their impact on workers and unions in the first year of the pandemic. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the disruption caused to these countries’ economies, and societies, served to reproduce existing patterns of state–labour relations rather than overturning them.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document