Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score

2020 ◽  
pp. 174749302092528 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Ntaios ◽  
Kalliopi Perlepe ◽  
Dimitris Lambrou ◽  
Gaia Sirimarco ◽  
Davide Strambo ◽  
...  

Background and aims Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Methods We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system. Results Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; −1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; −3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; −2 points for subcortical infarct; −3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively. Conclusions The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring. Clinical trial registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov / Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Ikeda ◽  
M Iguchi ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
Y Aono ◽  
K Doi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Hypertension is one of the major risk factors of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, relationship between diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and cardiovascular events in AF patients remains unclear. Methods The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Japan. Follow-up data were available in 4,466 patients, and 4,429 patients with available data of DBP were examined. We divided the patients into three groups; G1 (DBP&lt;70 mmHg, n=1,946), G2 (70≤DBP&lt;80, n=1,321) and G3 (80≤DBP, n=1,162), and compared the clinical background and outcomes between groups. Results The proportion of female was grater in G1 group, and the patients in G1 group were older and had higher prevalence of heart failure (HF), diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD). Prescription of beta blockers was higher in G1 group, but that of renin-angiotensin system-inhibitors and calcium channel blocker was comparable. During the median follow-up of 1,589 days, in Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence rates of cardiovascular events (composite of cardiac death, ischemic stroke and systemic embolism, major bleeding and HF hospitalization during follow up) were higher in G1 group and G3 group than G2 group (Figure 1). When we divided the patients based on the systolic blood pressure (SBP) at baseline (≥130 mmHg or &lt;130 mmHg), the incidence of rates of cardiovascular events were comparable among groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis including female gender, age (≥75 years), higher SBP (≥130 mmHg), DM, pre-existing HF, CKD, low left ventricular ejection fraction (&lt;40%) and DBP (G1, G2, G3) revealed that DBP was an independent determinant of cardiovascular events (G1 group vs. G2 group; hazard ratio (HR): 1.40, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.19–1.64, G3 group vs. G2 group; HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01–1.49). When we examined the impact of DBP according to 10 mmHg increment, patients with very low DBP (&lt;60 mmHg) (HR: 1.50,95% CI:1.24–1.80) and very high DBP (≥90 mmHg) (HR: 1.51,95% CI:1.15–1.98) had higher incidence of cardiovascular events than patients with DBP of 70–79 mmHg (Figure 2). However, when we examined the impact of SBP according to 20 mmHg increment, SBP at baseline was not associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events (Figure 3). Conclusion In Japanese patients with AF, DBP exhibited J curve association with higher incidence of cardiovascular events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 346-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan I. Qureshi ◽  
Nauman Jahangir ◽  
Ahmed A. Malik ◽  
Mohammad Rauf Afzal ◽  
Fayyaz Orfi ◽  
...  

Importance: The risk of ischemic stroke during periods of warfarin discontinuation for surgical procedures is recognized but not well characterized. Objective: The study aimed to quantitate the risk of ischemic stroke associated with high risk atrial fibrillation during periods of warfarin discontinuation. Design, Setting and Participants: A cohort of 4,060 patients (mean follow-up period of 3.5 ± 1.3 years) were randomized into the Atrial Fibrillation Follow-Up Investigation of Rhythm Management study. Patients enrolled in the study had atrial fibrillation plus at least one other risk factor for stroke or death: age ≥65 years', systemic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, transient ischemic attack, prior stroke, left atrium >50 mm, left ventricular fractional shortening <25% or left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. Exposure: Warfarin discontinuation for procedure. Main Outcome and Measures: The association of warfarin discontinuation with the incidence of ischemic stroke using pooled repeated measures and Cox proportional hazards analyses during follow-up after adjusting for age, gender, obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, cigarette smoking and study period. Results: Warfarin discontinuation for procedure occurred in 265 (0.4%) of the 71,355 person observations. Compared with those without warfarin discontinuation, the rate of ischemic stroke was higher among participants with surgery-related warfarin discontinuation (1.1% of 265 person observations vs. 0.2% of 71,090 person observations, p = 0.001). Warfarin discontinuation was associated with an increased risk for ischemic stroke (relative risk 5.8; 95% CI 1.8-18.4) after adjusting for potential confounders. The population-attributable risk associated with surgery-related warfarin discontinuation was estimated to be 23.1% (95% CI 15.2-30.9%) for ischemic stroke. Conclusions and Relevance: The 6-fold higher risk of ischemic stroke associated with discontinuation of warfarin for surgical procedures must be recognized in high risk atrial fibrillation patients and considered in the risk-benefit analysis of any procedure.


EP Europace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Seliutskii ◽  
N Savina ◽  
A Chapurnykh

Abstract Objective to compare the efficacy of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and drug therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AFib) and heart failure (HF) within 12-month follow-up. Materials and methods 130 patients (men-75%, average age-62.8 ± 11.8 years) with AFib and HF with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)&lt;50% were included in a prospective study. In 107 (82%) of the included patients, intermediate LVEF was detected (40-49%). At the time of inclusion, paroxysmal AFib (PaAFib) was recorded in 60 (46%) of patients and persistent AFib (PeAFib) in 70 (54%). AFib RFA was performed in 65 patients, 65 patients continued to receive optimal antiarrhythmic therapy. Prior to the intervention and after 12 months, all patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography and quality of life (QoL) assessment using the SF-36 questionnaire. Results the freedom from AFib within 12 months follow-up period was registred in 49 (75%) of patients in the RFA group and 26 (40%) in the drug therapy group. After 12 month follow-up period we revealed increase of LVEF (p &lt; 0.001), decrease of anteroposterior size (p &lt;0.001) and volume (p &lt; 0.001) of left atrium (LA), improvement of mental (p = 0.008) and physical (p = 0.048) health components according to the SF-36 questionnaire in the RFA group. In the group of drug rhythm control, after 12 months there was only the improvement of mental (p = 0.006) and physical p = 0.016) health components and it was much less than in RFA group (р&lt;0.001). Similar results were received in patients who were free from Afib within 12 months in both groups. Conclusions in patients with AFib and HF with LVEF &lt; 50%, restoration and maintenance of sinus rhythm using RFA was accompanied by an increase in LVEF, decrease of  LA size, and an improvement of QoL. In the group of drug therapy, there was a lower freedom from AFib and there was the slight improvement only in QoL.


Author(s):  
Jonathan P. Piccini ◽  
Christopher Dufton ◽  
Ian A. Carroll ◽  
Jeff S. Healey ◽  
William T. Abraham ◽  
...  

Background - Bucindolol is a genetically targeted β-blocker/mild vasodilator with the unique pharmacologic properties of sympatholysis and ADRB1 Arg389 receptor inverse agonism. In the GENETIC-AF trial conducted in a genetically defined heart failure (HF) population at high risk for recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF), similar results were observed for bucindolol and metoprolol succinate for the primary endpoint of time to first atrial fibrillation (AF) event; however, AF burden and other rhythm control measures were not analyzed. Methods - The prevalence of ECGs in normal sinus rhythm, AF interventions for rhythm control (cardioversion, ablation and antiarrhythmic drugs), and biomarkers were evaluated in the overall population entering efficacy follow-up (N=257). AF burden was evaluated for 24 weeks in the device substudy (N=67). Results - In 257 patients with HF the mean age was 65.6 ± 10.0 years, 18% were female, mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 36%, and 51% had persistent AF. Cumulative 24-week AF burden was 24.4% (95% CI: 18.5, 30.2) for bucindolol and 36.7% (95% CI: 30.0, 43.5) for metoprolol (33% reduction, p < 0.001). Daily AF burden at the end of follow-up was 15.1% (95% CI: 3.2, 27.0) for bucindolol and 34.7% (95% CI: 17.9, 51.2) for metoprolol (55% reduction, p < 0.001). For the metoprolol and bucindolol respective groups the prevalence of ECGs in normal sinus rhythm was 4.20 and 3.03 events per patient (39% increase in the bucindolol group, p < 0.001), while the rate of AF interventions was 0.56 and 0.82 events per patient (32% reduction for bucindolol, p = 0.011). Reductions in plasma norepinephrine (p = 0.038) and NT-proBNP (p = 0.009) were also observed with bucindolol compared to metoprolol. Conclusions - Compared with metoprolol, bucindolol reduced AF burden, improved maintenance of sinus rhythm, and lowered the need for additional rhythm control interventions in patients with HF and the ADRB1 Arg389Arg genotype.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K Mondo ◽  
Z.I Attia ◽  
E.D Benavente ◽  
P Friedman ◽  
P Noseworthy ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Although there are effective treatments for patients with LVSD to prevent mortality, heart failure and to improve symptoms, many patients remain undetected and untreated. We have recently derived a deep learning algorithm to detect LVSD using the electrocardiogram (ECG) which could have an important screening role, particularly in limited resources settings. We evaluated the accuracy of this algorithm for the first time in Africa in a sample of subjects attending a cardiology clinic. Methods We conducted a retrospective study in a general cardiac clinic in Uganda. Consecutive patients ≥18 years who had a digital ECG and echocardiogram done within two days of each other were included. We excluded patients with pacemakers or missing information regarding left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Routine 10-second, twelve-lead surface rest ECG were performed using an Edan PC ECG Model SE-1515, Hamburg, Germany. The probability of LVSD was estimated with the Mayo Clinic artificial intelligence (AI) ECG algorithm. LVEF was calculated by the MMode (Teichholz method) using a Philips Ultrasound system, HD7XE, Bothel, Washington, USA. LVSD was defined as a LVEF≤35%. We assessed the overall diagnostic performance of the algorithm to identify LVSD in this population with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and estimated sensitivity, specificity and accuracy using a pre-specified cut-off based on the probability for LVSD generated by the algorithm. We conducted secondary analyses using different LVEF cutoff values. Results We included 634 subjects, 32% (200) of whom had hypertension and 12% (77) clinical heart failure. Mean age was 57±18.8 years, 58% were women and the overall prevalence of LVSD was 4%. The AI-ECG had an AUC of 0.866 (see figure below), sensitivity 73.08%, specificity 91.10%, negative predictive value 98.75%, positive predictive value 26.03% and an accuracy of 90.96% using the original threshold. Using the optimal cutoff based on the AUCs, the sensitivity was 80.77% and specificity was 81.05% with a negative predictive value of 98.99%. The ROC for the detection of LVEF of 40% or below was 0.821. Conclusion The Mayo AI-ECG algorithm demonstrated good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity to detect LVSD in patients seen in a clinical setting in Uganda. This tool may facilitate the identification of people at a high risk for LVSD in settings with low resources. ROC Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 138 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian D McCauley ◽  
Esseim Sharma ◽  
John Dudley ◽  
Antony Chu

Introduction: Based on the data from CASTLE-AF trial, in patient with Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) catheter ablation may offer a significant reduction in both death, and hospitalization, while promoting maintenance of sinus rhythm as well as improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). This multi-center randomized trial is hailed as a paradigm shifting study in catheter ablation, however it is not without fault. One of the critiques of the CASTLE-AF trial was the high frequency of crossover between the treatment arms. To help sort out this potential source of confounding, we performed a systematic meta-analysis of prospective trials for catheter ablation in AF in patients with Class II through IV heart failure. Hypothesis: The reduction in death, and hospitalization, as well as the maintenance in sinus rhythm and improvement in LVEF seen CASTLE-AF trial are support by other similarly designed AF ablation trials. Methods: Using the inclusion/exclusion criteria from the CASTLE-AF trial, we performed a systematic meta-analysis of 28 published studies. Randomized and non-randomized observational studies comparing the impact of catheter ablation of AF in HF. Studies were identified using the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed. Results: A total of 29 studies were identified (n =2,339). Mean follow-up was 25 (95% confidence interval, 18-40) months. Efficacy in maintaining sinus rhythm at follow-up end was 60% (43%-76%). Left ventricular ejection fraction improved significantly during follow-up by 15% (P<0.001). Conclusions: Following our meta-analysis, we found data to support the findings of improved LVEF and maintenance of sinus rhythm reported in the CASTLE-AF trial. However, due to differences in study design, we were unable to further validate the reduction in both hospitalization and death seen in CASTLE-AF. We recommend future prospective trials be conducted without cross over to further explore this topic.


Author(s):  
YU HYEYON ◽  
JIHUN AHN

Objectives: Systolic and diastolic dysfunctions are related to adverse clinical outcomes in patients with sinus rhythm. The aim of this study was to clarify the prognostic significance of systolic and diastolic dysfunctions in patients with chronic persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: We evaluated data for 114 consecutive patients with chronic AF who underwent measurement of LVEDP at our hospital between 1 March 2011 and 31 December 2014. In total, 114 consecutive patients with chronic AF were divided into two groups according to the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): LVEF < 50 (reduced ejection fraction, REF group) and LVEF ≥50 (preserved EF, PEF group). The PEF group was further divided into two subgroups according to the left ventricular end-diastolic filling pressure (LVEDP): LVEDP >15 mmHg and LVEDP ≤ 15 mmHg. The 3-year clinical outcomes were compared between the PEF and REF groups and the LVEDP ≥15 mmHg and LVEDP <15 mmHg groups. Results: During the 3-year follow-up period, the rate of heart failure (HF) hospitalisation and incidence of AF with rapid ventricular rhythm (RVR) were higher in the REF group than in the PEF group. Multivariate analysis revealed that REF was the only significant predictor of HF hospitalisation (hazard ratio, 4.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.48–15.02; p=0.009). Conclusions: Our observations during a mid-term follow-up period revealed that systolic dysfunction could be an important predictor of HF hospitalisation in patients with AF. However, elevated LVEDP may not be associated with mid-term adverse clinical outcomes in patients without systolic dysfunction.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Ahn ◽  
H Y Yu

Abstract Background Systolic and diastolic dysfunction is related with adverse clinical outcomes in the patients with sinus rhythm. Purpose: The aim of this study is to clarify the prognostic significance of both systolic and diastolic dysfunction in the patients with chronic persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: A total of 114 consecutive patients who have chronic persistent AF. Whole patients were divided into 2 groups according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): those with an LVEF &lt; 50 (n = 24) (REF) and those with an LVEF ≥ 50 (n = 90) (PEF). And PEF group was also divided into two groups according to left ventricular end diastolic filling pressure (LVEDP): patients with LVEDP ≥ 15 mmHg (n = 38) and those with &lt; 15 mmHg (n = 52). Results: 3-year clinical outcomes were compared between each groups (PEF groups vs. REF groups and LVEDP ≥ 15 mmHg vs LVEDP &lt; 15 mmHg). The incidence of death, hospitalization, stroke, bleeding, AF with rapid ventricular rhythm (RVR) and heart failure (HF) hospitalization were similar PEF and REF group. However, during 3-year follow up period, the incidence of HF hospitalization (29.2% vs 8.9%, p &lt; 0.02) and AF with RVR (20.8% vs 3.3%, p &lt; 0.01) were frequent in REF group compared with PEF group. In multivariate analysis, REF is an only predictor of HF hospitalization (Table 1). Conclusion: During 3-year follow up period, systolic dysfunction is an important predictor of HF hospitalization in AF patients. However, elevated LVEDP is not related with 3-year adverse clinical outcomes in AF patients without systolic dysfunction. Table 1 variable Odd Ratio (HR) 95% Confidence Interval (CI) P Age .973 .925-1.023 .286 Diabetes mellitus .487 .138-1.721 .264 BNP 1.000 1.000-1.000 .908 Hypertension 1.061 .330-3.413 .921 LVEDP &gt; 15 mmHg 1.302 .396-4.285 .664 EF &lt; 50 4.712 1.478-15.016 .009 Predictors of 3-year follow-up clinical outcomes of all participants


Author(s):  
Jayanti Venkata Balasubramaniyan ◽  
Ashutosh Prasad Tripathi ◽  
J. S. Satyanarayana Murthy

Background: Mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) has been proposed as a parameter for assessing left ventricular function. The assessment of LVF has major diagnostic and prognostic implications in patients with cardiovascular diseases. LVF is measured by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction, however the accuracy of LVEF estimation by two dimensional echocardiography is limited especially in patients with poor image quality. Mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) measurement predicts left ventricular function even in conditions with suboptimal echo window. Objective: To assess the correlation of MAPSE derived LVEF with LVEF measured by Modified Simpson’s method. Methods: This is a cross sectional study which included 279 patients admitted at our tertiary care hospital from December 2019 to March 2020 and the patients were divided in two groups. Group A – Patients with LVEF>= 50% and Group B – Patients with LVEF<50%. All patients underwent 2D echocardiographic examination using Modified Simpsons’ method and MAPSE measurement. The VIVID E9, VIVID T8, VIVID E95 and PHILIPS echocardiography machine was used for the non-invasive measurements. MAPSE was recorded at medial and lateral mitral annuli in the apical four-chamber approach. Results: On analysis, a cut off value for average MAPSE-S (medial mitral annuli) was 8.5 was obtained, denoting preserved LV function with sensitivity of 81.7%, specificity of 84.9%, positive predictive value of 91.6% and negative predictive value of 84.9%. The AUC for MAPSE-S was 0.822. Similarly, the cut off value of average MAPSE-L (lateral mitral annuli) was 7.5 denoting impaired LV functions with an AUC of 0.826, sensitivity of 82.8%, specificity of 72.0%, positive predictive value of 85.6% and negative predictive value of 72.0%. The AUC of 82.6% was observed for MAPSE-L. Conclusion: MAPSE reflects longitudinal myocardial shortening. MAPSE is a rapid and sensitive echocardiographic parameter for assessing normal LV function and global LV systolic dysfunction.


2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 341-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Loardi ◽  
Francesco Alamanni ◽  
Fabrizio Veglia ◽  
Claudia Galli ◽  
Alessandro Parolari ◽  
...  

The radiofrequency maze procedure achieves sinus rhythm in 45%–95% of patients treated for atrial fibrillation. This retrospective study evaluates mid-term results of the radiofrequency maze—performed concomitant to elective cardiac surgery—to determine sinus-rhythm predictive factors, and describes the evolution of patients' echocardiographic variables. From 2003 through 2011, 247 patients (mean age, 64 ± 9.5 yr) with structural heart disease (79.3% mitral disease) and atrial fibrillation underwent a concomitant radiofrequency modified maze procedure. Patients were monitored by 24-hour Holter at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, then annually. Eighty-four mitral-valve patients underwent regular echocardiographic follow-up. Univariate and multivariate analysis for risk factors of maze failure were identified. The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.2%. During a median follow-up of 39.4 months, the late mortality rate was 3.6%, and pacemaker insertion was necessary in 26 patients (9.4%). Sinus rhythm was present in 63% of patients at the latest follow-up. Predictive factors for atrial fibrillation recurrence were arrhythmia duration (hazard ratio [HR]=1.296, P=0.045) and atrial fibrillation at hospital discharge (HR=2.03, P=0.019). The monopolar device favored maze success (HR=0.191, P &lt;0.0001). Left atrial area and indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume showed significant decrease both in sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation patients. Early sinus rhythm conversion was associated with improved left ventricular ejection fraction. Concomitant radiofrequency maze procedure provided remarkable outcomes. Shorter preoperative atrial fibrillation duration, monopolar device use, and prompt treatment of arrhythmia recurrences increase the midterm success rate. Early sinus rhythm restoration seems to result in better left ventricular ejection fraction recovery.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document