Emerging Issues in Fiscal Sustainability in India: A Study of Central Government Finances, 1979–1980 to 2018–2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 227797872198992
Author(s):  
Anita Rath ◽  
Arpit Sachan
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Indian Central ◽  
Emerging Issues ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
A Share

The objective of the article is to examine the fiscal sustainability of the Indian central government’s finances in the era of rule-based fiscal policy. Asymmetric budgetary adjustment process and revenue–expenditure nexus are also analysed in this article by employing threshold autoregressive models/momentum threshold autoregressive models. Findings of the article reveal emerging issues in fiscal sustainability in India. The central government’s expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) has been falling continuously, leaving little room for further pruning. The current scenario of negative growth in central government’s revenue as a share of GDP, if not reversed, can become the Achilles heel of government finances in India. JEL Classification: E62, H600, H500, C32

scholarly journals ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENT OF THE SECTORIAL LENDINGDEPOSIT RATE SPREAD IN FIJI

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 89-106
Author(s):  
Shamal Shivneel Chand ◽  
Baljeet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Behaviour

This study investigates the asymmetric adjustment of the sectorial lending-deposit rate spread in Fiji’s banking industry using monthly data from January 2000 to February 2020. The study uses the threshold autoregressive and the momentum threshold autoregressive models to test for cointegration and to detect asymmetries. The analysis provides evidence of an asymmetric adjustment process in the sectorial lending deposit rate spread among Fijian commercial banks. This finding has important policy implications and provides better understanding of the asymmetric behaviour in Fiji’s banking industry.

scholarly journals THE SUSTAINABILITY OF STATE BUDGET IN DEBT REPAYMENT

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-434
Author(s):  
Haryo Kuncoro
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government

This paper is designed to analyze the sustainability of the central government budget in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the theoretical background of the fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a model to capture some factors determining the fiscal sustainability. Unlike the previous studies, we use both domestic debt and foreign debt to assess the fiscal solvency. Finally, we estimate it empirically. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we concluded that the government budget is unsustainable. This is associated with domestic debt rather than foreign debt. They imply that the central government should manage the debts carefully including re-profile, re-schedule, and re-structure them in order to spread the excess burden in the future. Also, the fiscal risks should be calculated comprehensively in order to maintain solvency.Keywords: Domestic debt, Foreign debt, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balanceJEL Clasbsification: E62, H63

scholarly journals Concept of Innovative Fiscal Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Competitio ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Kovacs
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Social Trust ◽  
Disruptive Innovation ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

This contribution addresses the question of what are the main constituents of an innovative fiscal policy in the context of sustainability. We apply the concept of sustaining and disruptive innovation to fiscal policy. On the one hand, innovative fiscal policy is able to be sustaining whereby public finance will incrementally improve without leaving its decisive structure. On the other hand, innovative fiscal policy should be disruptive as well in the context of long term sustainability, whereby the structure of public finances can be profoundly restructured as a reaction to future challenges. By using the Finnish recovery in the early 1990s, we can refine our argument about the use and necessity of the mixture of fiscal rules and independent institutions in favour of fiscal sustainability. We also shed light on the key sources of the expansionary consolidation that emerged in the aftermath of the fiscal adjustment in the early 1990s. We emphasise that innovative fiscal policy with a mixture of legislated fiscal rules and independent fiscal anchor is more likely to be associated with sustainability if the economy has weaker growth potential which does not provide enough social trust towards the consolidation efforts of the government. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification: E61, E62, Q01

scholarly journals Navigating the fourth industrial revolution: Taxing automation for fiscal sustainability

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 648-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bronwyn McCredie ◽  
Kerrie Sadiq ◽  
Larelle Chapple
Keyword(s):  
John Rawls ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Common Denominator ◽  
Pigouvian Tax ◽  
Theory Of Justice ◽  
Fourth Industrial Revolution

The fourth industrial revolution has arrived; however, this industrial revolution is unlike those witnessed in the past. Equal opportunity and growth have been replaced by the 21st century trend of rising inequality, in which advancement through digitisation and automation brings fortune to the few and hardship to the many, as income and property stratification grows. As a result, current tax systems are under pressure with displaced workers requiring support, and the fiscal purse, which has historically been funded by income taxes, being eroded due to a decreasing number of workers to tax. Conceivably, it is up to governments to address this ‘double negative effect’, but it is unclear how this could be achieved and what theoretical basis should be leveraged to do so. This article provides a discussion of three important normative philosophies of distributive justice, utilitarianism, libertarianism and John Rawls’ theory of justice, to determine a theoretical basis on which the redistribution of income via a tax on automation is justified. The pertinent theory is then operationalised with the proposal of three alternate models of taxation: a Pigouvian tax, a tax on economic rents and an appreciation tax. Each of these models is evaluated alongside a discussion on the shift in global tax policy from taxing income to taxing capital. This article argues that this shift is necessary to reduce income inequality and to ensure even the lowest common denominator is provided for, for we are the 99%. JEL Classification: H23, H25, K34, O23

scholarly journals What Proportion of Time is a Particular Market Inefficient? … A Method for Analysing the Frequency of Market Efficiency when Equity Prices Follow Threshold Autoregressions

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Farid Ahmed ◽  
Stephen Satchell
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stationary Process ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Time Series Econometrics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We assume that equity returns follow multi-state threshold autoregressions and generalize existing results for threshold autoregressive models presented in Knight and Satchell 2011. “Some new results for threshold AR(1) models,” Journal of Time Series Econometrics 3(2011):1–42 and Knight, Satchell, and Srivastava (2014) for the existence of a stationary process and the conditions necessary for the existence of a mean and a variance; we also present formulae for these moments. Using a simulation study, we explore what these results entail with respect to the impact they can have on tests for detecting bubbles or market efficiency. We find that bubbles are easier to detect in processes where a stationary distribution does not exist. Furthermore, we explore how threshold autoregressive models with i.i.d trigger variables may enable us to identify how often asset markets are inefficient. We find, unsurprisingly, that the fraction of time spent in an efficient state depends upon the full specification of the model; the notion of how efficient a market is, in this context at least, a model-dependent concept. However, our methodology allows us to compare efficiency across different asset markets.

Threshold Autoregressive Models for Directional Time Series

2016 ◽  
pp. 13-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahayaudin M. Mansor ◽  
Max E. Glonek ◽  
David A. Green ◽  
Andrew V. Metcalfe
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive

scholarly journals Emerging Issues for Cultural Tourism in Macau

2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilary du Cros
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Cultural Tourism ◽  
Heritage Management ◽  
Host Community ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Visitor Experience ◽  
Tourism Impacts ◽  
Emerging Issues

Recent research on achieving sustainable heritage tourism in Macau advocates a greater collaboration between tourism and heritage management authorities and the local community on reaching sustainable tourism goals. A key theme for Macau in the last ten years has been how the tension between the proponents for greater casino development versus those for cultural heritage product development has played out in government policies for heritage management, private sector tourism development and host community concerns about heritage protection and achieving quality tourism. The indirect influence of the central government on Macau Special Administrative Region's (SAR's) policy development in relation to these topics in the last ten years will be discussed in this context using findings from three recent studies by the Institute For Tourism Studies (IFT) and background information collected on government policy and community views. This paper will outline emerging issues regarding demand, supply, and impacts of cultural tourism with reference to findings from four recent research projects. Special reference will be made to over-use and under-use issues, authenticity, and the management of tourism impacts while enhancing visitor experience. Strategic planning and management of cultural tourism products will also be touched upon.

scholarly journals Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of a Shrinking Resource Envelope

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aqib Aslam ◽  
Enrico Berkes ◽  
Martin Fukac ◽  
Jeta Menkulasi ◽  
Axel Schimmelpfennig
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

For Afghanistan, the dual prospect of declining donor support and high ongoing security spending over the medium term keeps its government budget tight. This paper uses a general equilibrium model to capture the security–development trade-off facing the government in its effort to rehabilitate growth and fiscal sustainability. In particular, it considers strategic policy options for counteracting and minimizing the negative macroeconomic impact of possible aid and revenue shortfalls. We find that the mobilization of domestic revenues through changes in tax policy is the preferred policy response for the Afghan central government. Such a response helps to place its finances on a sustainable path in the near term and preserve most of the growth potential. Cutting expenditures balances public finances but causes the economy to permanently shrink. Debt financing helps to preserve much of the economy size but can quickly put the sustainability of public finances at risk.

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