China's Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America: What has Changed?

When China invited the Latin American countries to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, it fuelled expectations of a much closer and more productive relationship with the region. In practice, however, there is little evidence that this was happening even before the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The article shows that neither the policy statements by China nor the trends in economic relations indicate a substantive change in Sino–Latin American relations and that the Belt and Road Initiative represents a repackaging of existing relations and the continuation of trends that have been underway since the global financial crisis.

Citizens’ Expectations for Crisis Management and the Involvement of Civil Society Organisations in China

Chinese citizens are relatively happy with the state's management of national disasters and emergencies. However, they are increasingly concluding that the state alone cannot manage them. Leveraging the 2018 and 2020 Civic Participation in China Surveys, we find that more educated citizens conclude that the government has a leading role in crisis management, but there is ample room for civil society organisations (CSOs) to act in a complementary fashion. On a slightly diverging path, volunteers who have meaningfully interacted with CSOs are more skeptical than non-volunteers about CSOs’ organisational ability to fulfill this crisis management function. These findings imply that the political legitimacy of the Communist Party of China is not challenged by allowing CSOs a greater role in crisis management.

The New Triangular Relationship between the US, China, and Latin America: The Case of Trade in the Autoparts-Automobile Global Value Chain (2000–2019)

During 2000–2019, the autoparts-automobile global value chain (AAGVC) underwent significant structural changes from a number of perspectives: micro, meso, or inter-firm relations, macroeconomic, and territorial shifts. This document will focus on recent trade debates on the “new triangular relationship” between the US–China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and Mexico, and specifically on trade in the AAGVC during 2000–2019. In addition to the discussion on global value chains (GVCs) and its implications, the document analyses in detail qualitative and quantitative global changes in the AAGVC and specifically in US imports during 2000–2019, highlighting the performance of Mexico and China in trade, tariffs, and transportation costs. Conclusions include a set of future research topics.

Overstretching or Overreaction? China’s Rise in Latin America and the US Response

This article examines how the Chinese elites are interpreting China’s growing presence in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region and the various ways in which the United States is responding to China’s expanding activity in the region. Some of China’s elites caution that China’s international posturing could be overly assertive. Regarding China’s growing role in the LAC, they have made a note of US sensitivities, in addition to China’s challenges and limitations in various Latin American countries. Regarding the US response, some US concerns may be legitimate, and others are less valid. Looking ahead, even though US–China interactions in the LAC will remain competitive, the US and China could potentially avoid counterproductive policies while also pursuing pragmatic co-operation. While China does not yet face a serious problem of strategic overstretching in the LAC, China’s domestic debate on the topic will provide feedback to China’s policymakers and promote fruitful China–LAC relations.

China’s Foreign Aid Political Drivers: Lessons from a Novel Dataset of Mask Diplomacy in Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study investigates a novel dataset comprised of a universe of 537 donations in 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, between 11 February and 20 June 2020, which provides a high level of detail on China’s and Taiwan’s mask diplomacy. We describe who the main donors were, who the main recipients were, what was donated to each country, and which variables explain why some countries received more aid than others. Drawing on previous literature, the article advances understanding about the political determinants of these donations. Our findings revealed that, although seemingly uncoordinated, donations made by China’s central government, Chinese companies, cities, and foundations were strongly affected by two political determinants, namely the recipient’s partnership status with China and the One China Policy. Furthermore, aid provided by China’s Central Government was larger in autocracies than in democracies.

Chinese Economic Statecraft in Indonesia/East Timor: A Historical and Regional Perspective

From inside China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), two southern tier nations offer contrary perspectives as to the efficacy of Beijing’s economic statecraft, namely Indonesia and East Timor. While obviously asymmetric in practically every respect, nevertheless a careful study of these two nations’ bilateral links with China over long and short times offers salutary lessons on infrastructure financing in particular. Several interconnected inquiries are interposed. In a nation known for its competing political elites and support bases, how successful has China been in micro-managing its relations with Jakarta over trade and investment deals even carrying through to a post-authoritarian order? How has newly independent albeit aid-dependent Timor-Leste been able to parlay the China connection? Mixing documentary with primary research in situ, the inclusion of the East Timor case adds a missing link in the growing literature on the BRI.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: A Qualified Success for Beijing's Economic Statecraft

In 2013, China's growing economic capacities motivated Beijing to launch a multilateral bank to advance its diplomatic agenda. Scholars are still debating precisely what Beijing seeks to accomplish through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This article surveys the key literature on the AIIB, identifying twenty scholarly interpretations of Beijing's strategic goals. The purpose of this research is to understand Beijing's initial design for this bank and evaluate whether this new multilateral development bank can function as an effective instrument for Beijing's economic statecraft. Over its first five years, as an economic tool for Beijing, the AIIB has performed quite remarkably well. The bank not only operates smoothly, generating a reasonable amount in net income for its shareholders, but also serves Beijing's strategic purposes in expanding China's regional influence, enhancing its international status, and ascending toward global leadership.

Carrots, not Sticks: A Historical Analysis of Beijing's Economic Statecraft Towards Hong Kong

This analysis offers a historical assessment of “economic statecraft” in Beijing's approach to Hong Kong from 1997 to 2020. It discusses how the concept of “economic statecraft” can be applied to Beijing–Hong Kong relations given the nature of the “one country, two systems” framework, and looks at some differing perceptions about economic statecraft in Hong Kong. It argues that, during this period, economic tools were in general used by Beijing relatively sparingly, and in the form of inducements rather than coercion. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that the contested interpretations of Beijing–Hong Kong economic relations demonstrate that “economic statecraft” is to a certain extent in the eye of the beholder.

Mexico’s Trade Relationship with China in the Context of the United States–China Trade war

The Mexico–China economic relationship is highly asymmetric, although the amount of total trade between the two countries has grown rapidly in the last ten years. Chinese exports to Mexico have grown exponentially and have diversified into different economic sectors. In contrast, Mexican exports to China have also grown but at a much slower pace and the pattern shows more concentration in fewer products. Paradoxically, in the context of the United States–China trade war, the Mexican economy has benefitted from the increase in tariffs that the United States has imposed on Chinese products. In 2019, for the first time, Mexico displaced China as a main trade partner of the United States. In this context, this article analyses the current economic relationship of Mexico with China and the United States in a triangular scheme, the impact of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on the China–Mexico relationship, and Mexico's trade relationship with both economies in the context of the trade war.

China in Latin America Then and Now: A Systemic Constructivist Analysis of China’s Foreign Policy

Examining China’s policy towards Latin America from 1949 to the present day, this article uncovers a puzzle about China in Latin America: while the guiding doctrine of China’s policy towards the region has never changed (i.e. “South–South Cooperation” on the basis of the “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence”), there is a difference in terms of its policy goal between then and now (i.e. a very revisionist and politically focused goal until the late 1970s as compared to a less revisionist and economically focused one today). Based on the theory of systemic constructivism, this article demonstrates that the change of the interactions between China and other countries in our world (from isolation and confrontation to engagement and interdependence) has changed China’s perception about the nature of the international system, as well as its identity and interests in the system, which in turn has changed its policy goal towards Latin America and the “Global South” in general.