Does Fiscal Deficit Affect Interest Rate in India? An Empirical Investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Rani ◽  
Naresh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

Fiscal deficit above a certain limit is not good for the country because high government borrowings raise the interest rate and crowd out private investment. This article is an attempt to analyze the impact of fiscal deficit on real interest rate in India over the time period of 1980–1981 to 2013–2014. Autoregressive distributed lags bound testing approach for cointegration and vector error correction model for Granger casualty are used in a multivariate framework in which money supply and inflation are included as additional variables. Bound test results confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the competing variables. Further, the rate of interest and fiscal deficit are positively related with each other in long run, whereas money supply and inflation are found to be negative and statistical significant. In addition, results of vector error correction model showed that there is unidirectional causality running from inflation to real interest rate in short run. Based on the findings, it is suggested that that proper fiscal consolidation is required to control high fiscal deficit and burgeoning interest rate in India. Further, government should move from market borrowing to tax revenue to offset fiscal deficit.

MODEL PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imam Mukhlis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

This research aims to estimate the demand for money model in Indonesia for 2005.22015.12. The variables used in this research are demand for money, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate (IDR/US$). The stationary test with ADF used to test unit root in the data. Cointegration test applied to estimate the long run relationship between variables. This research employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the money demand model in Indonesia. The results showed that all the data was stationer at the difference level (1%). There were long run relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia. The VECM model could not explain interaction between explanatory variables to independent variables. In the short run, there were not relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12.

scholarly journals Empirical evidence on Non-Performing Loans and credit frictions: banking sector in Tunisia

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-183
Author(s):  
Salha Ben Salem ◽  
◽  
Moez Labidi ◽  
Nadia Mansour ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Frictions

Purpose: This paper explores the most important determinants of friction in the Tunisian credit market. The previous literature argued that friction is largely explained by the increase in Non-Performing Loans Nkusu, 2011; Abadi et al. 2014; Rulyasri et al.2017, Roland et all, 2013. Research methodology: We constructed a multivariate Vector Error Correction Model, with five macroeconomic variables (industrial production index, the money supply, money market interest rate) to examine the impact of Non-Performing Loans increase in amplifying the Tunisian credit frictions. Results: The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression results show a negative and important relationship between economic growth and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio, which is very robust during the political crisis of 2011. The money market interest rate and the money supply are positively related to the Non-Performing loan ratio. Limitation: This study was only focused on Tunisian banking sector as one of the pillars of the Tunisian economy. Contributions: This highlights that the nature of the monetary policy adopted by the monetary authority of Tunisia plays a significant role in the fluctuation of the Non-Performing Loans ratio. Bank capitalization is positively and statistically significant with Non-Performing Loan ratio, implying that banks with a low level of capital are more likely to have a riskier credit portfolio that causes the increase of Non-Performing Loans in their balance sheet.

scholarly journals Measuring the Dis-Equilibrium in Acreage Response of Black Gram (Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper) in Tamil Nadu – A Vector Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
R. Sangeetha ◽  
K. R. Ashok ◽  
P. Asha Priyanka
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Black Gram ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The study has observed an increasing trend in pulses production, driven mainly by yield improvements. The contributions of area expansion and prices to black gram growth have been erratic, suggesting that these cannot be the sustainable sources of black gram growth. Further, farmers’ area allocation decisions to pulses are not price-dependent, but depend on non price factors, mainly rainfall. However, the growth in pulses production in the long-run must come from technological changes. Numerous past studies on black gram cultivation in Tamil Nadu is criticized for using the weaker Nerlovian Partial Adjustment models and for analytical interpretation through Ordinary Least Square (OLS) creating spurious results for time series data. This problem can be avoided if Econometric technique of co-integration is used. It is for the present paper measuring the dis-Equilibrium in acreage response of black gram by using a vector error correction model. Our unit root analysis indicates that underlying data series were not stationary and are all integrated of order one, that is I(1). The Johansen co-integration approach indicates the presence of a co-integrating relationship in the acreage response model. Black gram acreage is significantly influenced by relative price of black gram, and other competing crops such as groundnut whenever resourceallocation is concerned famers preferred to allocate irrigated land to other competing crops which are more remunerative and high yielding than black gram crop. The black gram supply elasticity’s are found to be inelastic both in the short-and long-run. The long-run and short run price elasticity’s were 0.41 and 0.28, respectively.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Heri Sudarsono
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

<p>This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the amount of profitability (ROA) provided by Islamic banking in Indonesia. The data which is used is taken from the financial report of the Shari’a Bank during the 2011-2016 periods by using montly financial statement This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the long-term effect and response to shock that occur in the studied variables. The result shows that in the long run, the percentage Financing (FIN) and BOPO give a positive siqnifikant effect on the ROA, while third party funds (DPK), percentage profit and loss sharing (TBH), financial to deposit ratio (FDR) has negative and siqnificant effect on the ROA. Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Syariah (SBIS) and non performing finance (NPF) have no significant effect on the ROA. In short run, ROA give a negatif and siqnificant effect on the ROA and FDR give a positif and siqnificant effect, while DPK, FIN, SBIS, TBH, NPF and BOPO have no sinificant effect on the ROA. Therfore, shocks that occur in the ROA, FIN, FDR , NPF dan BOPO positively responded by ROA and will be stable in the long term. While the shocks that occur in the percentage of FDR, SBIS and TBH responded negatively by financing and will be stable in the long term.</p><p>Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi profitabilitas (ROA) perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan data bulanan dari laporan keuangan bank syariah periode 2010-2015. Penelitian ini mengunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk melihat dampak jangka panjang dan respon terhadap dampak shock pada setiap variabel terhadap pembiayaan. Hasil olah data menunjukkan bahwa FIN dan BOPO berhubungan positif terhadap ROA, sedangkan DPK, TBH, FDR berhubungan negatif terhadap dan ROA SBIS dan NPF tidak berpengaruh terhadap tingkat ROA. Dalam jangka pendek, ROA berhubungan negatif, tetapi FDR terhadap ROA berhubungan positif. Sedangkan DPK, FIN, SBIS, TBH, NPF and BOPO tidak berhubungan dengan pembiayaan. Di lain pihak, respon pembiayan terhadap goncangan yang terjadi terjadi pada ROA, FIN, FDR, NPF dan BOPO direspon positif oleh ROA. Sedangkan respon ROA terhadap goncangan yang terjadi pada FDR, SBIS dan TBH adalah negatif.</p>

scholarly journals Does Trade Openness Reduce Inflation? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahir MukhtarF
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multivariate Cointegration

One of the more celebrated propositions found in international trade is the case that trade liberalization is associated with declining prices, so that protectionism is inflationary. In line with this view, Romer (1993) postulates the hypothesis that inflation is lower in small and open economies. The objective of this study is to examine Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used multivariate cointegration and a vector error correction model. The study covers the period from 1960 to 2007. The empirical findings under the cointegration test show that there is a significant negative long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which confirms the existence of Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan.

PERKEMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-72
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode Kuartal I tahun 2006 sampai dengan Kuartal II tahun 2013 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Neraca perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif dalam kurun waktu 2006-2011, dan pertumbuhan negatif selama periode 2012-2013. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, konsumsi domestik dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, sedangkan variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan PDB Negara lain berpengaruh positif. Nilai error correction model yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya koreksi dari pergerakan variabel pada keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hal ini mengindikasikan pentingnya pemerintah untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, mengendalikan konsumsi masyarat terhadap barang impor, dan menarik Foreign Direct Investment. This paper examines the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and its determinant factors from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The development of trade balance from the year 2006-2011 has shown a positive trend. However between the year 2012 and 2013, the trade balance has been negative.The analysis shows that both in the short run and the long run,the domestic consumption and Real Exchage Rate have negative and significant influence on Indonesia’s trade balance. Whilst Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign GDP have positive effect. The coefficient of Error Correction Model is negative and significant implying that there is correction movement from those variabels in the long run. This study suggests that the Government should make the right policy to overcome the deficit of trade balance by maintaining including exchange rate stability,and household consumption of imported goods as well as by attracting Foreign Direct Investment.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Dividend Payments On Shareholders Wealth: Evidence From The Vector Error Correction Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes De Wet ◽  
Mvita Mpinda
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Dividend Payments ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

To date, a vast body of research has been established on dividend policy. However, little research has been done on the impact of dividend payments on shareholders wealth while considering the short- and long-run effects. This study is based on a sample of 46 companies listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) for the period 1995 to 2010. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to describe the short-run and long-run dynamics or the adjustment of the co-integrated variables toward their equilibrium values. Results indicate that in the long run, dividend yield is positively related to market price per share, while earnings per share do not have a significant impact on the market price per share.

scholarly journals Analisis Kausalitas antara Investasi, Pendapatan Nasional, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 606-615
Author(s):  
Asila Murdiah ◽  
Prasetyo Ari Bowo
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
National Income ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

The relationship between investment, national income and money supply are interrelated. Increased investment can increase national income. Likewise, the increase in national income can increase investment. Besides investment increase can also increase the money supply. As investment increases, the national income will increase, which means an increase in people's income. The increase in people's income will lead to increased public consumption that would cause an increase in the money supply. If there is excess supply of money, Bank Indonesia will take the policy to reduce interest rates. These conditions will encourage investors to invest which in turn will increase the output and national income. This study aims to prove the causal relationship between the investment, national income and the amount of money circulating in Indonesia period 2007.1-2015.4. To prove the existence of a causal relationship between the study variables then performed Granger causality test method VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Granger causality analysis results show that, first, there is a causal relationship between national income and investment. Secondly, there is a causal relationship between the national income and the money supply. Third, there is no causal relationship between investment and money supply. Hubungan antara investasi, pendapatan nasional dan jumlah uang beredar saling berkaitan. Peningkatan investasi dapat meningkatkan pendapatan nasional. Begitu pula sebaliknya, peningkatan pendapatan nasional dapat meningkatkan investasi. Selain itu peningkatan investasi juga dapat meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar. Ketika investasi meningkat maka pendapatan nasional akan meningkat yang berarti terjadi peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat. Kenaikan pendapatan masyarakat ini akan menyebabkan konsumsi masyarakat meningkat sehingga akan menyebabkan kenaikan jumlah uang beredar. Apabila terjadi kelebihan jumlah uang beredar, Bank Indonesia akan mengambil kebijakan penurunan tingkat suku bunga. Kondisi ini akan mendorong minat investor untuk berinvestasi yang pada akhirnya akan meningkatkan output dan pendapatan nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuktikan adanya hubungan kausalitas antara investasi, pendapatan nasional dan jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia periode 2007.1-2015.4. Untuk membuktikan ada tidaknya hubungan kausalitas antarvariabel penelitian maka dilakukan uji kausalitas Granger dengan metode VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Hasil analisis kausalitas Granger menunjukkan bahwa, pertama, terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara pendapatan nasional dan investasi. Kedua, terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara pendapatan nasional dan jumlah uang beredar. Ketiga, tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara investasi dan jumlah uang beredar.

scholarly journals REVISITING KEYNES’ INVESTMENT AND SAVING MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to analyze the Keynes’ investment and saving model in Indonesia from 1981 to 2018. The researchers use the econometric test from the Granger causality test to find the short-run causal relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model to reveal both the short-run and long-run effects in the model. The result of Granger causality test demonstrates that there is no short-run causal relationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the increase in saving affects the consumption loans more compared to the investment loans. Besides, increased consumption compared to saving has more influence in raising investment. However, the Vector Error Correction Model proves that saving negatively affects investment in the long-run. This model empirically supports the long-run Keynes’ investment and saving model. Consequently, the Indonesian government needs to consider saving as a policy instrument to increase investment in the longrun.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document