scholarly journals Acute pulmonary embolism: mortality prediction by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology risk stratification model

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 780-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Becattini ◽  
Giancarlo Agnelli ◽  
Mareike Lankeit ◽  
Luca Masotti ◽  
Piotr Pruszczyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
European Society ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Risk Stratification Model ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
European Society Of Cardiology

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has proposed an updated risk stratification model for death in patients with acute pulmonary embolism based on clinical scores (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) or simplified PESI (sPESI)), right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) and elevated serum troponin (2014 ESC model).We assessed the ability of the 2014 ESC model to predict 30-day death after acute pulmonary embolism. Consecutive patients with symptomatic, confirmed pulmonary embolism included in prospective cohorts were merged in a collaborative database. Patients’ risk was classified as high (shock or hypotension), intermediate-high (RVD and elevated troponin), intermediate-low (RVD or increased troponin or none) and low (sPESI 0). Study outcomes were death and pulmonary embolism-related death at 30 days.Among 906 patients (mean±sd age 68±16, 489 females), death and pulmonary embolism-related death occurred in 7.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Death rate was 22% in “high-risk” (95% CI 14.0–29.8), 7.7% in “intermediate-high-risk” (95% CI 4.5–10.9) and 6.0% in “intermediate-low-risk” patients (95% CI 3.4–8.6). One of the 196 “low-risk” patients died (0.5%, 95% CI 0–1.0; negative predictive value 99.5%).By using the 2014 ESC model, RVD or troponin tests would be avoided in about 20% of patients (sPESI 0), preserving a high negative predictive value. Risk stratification in patients at intermediate risk requires further improvement.

scholarly journals Contemporary Clinical Management and Course of ACUTE Pulmonary Embolism: The COPE Study

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3230-3230
Author(s):  
Cecilia Becattini ◽  
Giancarlo Agnelli ◽  
Aldo P Maggioni ◽  
Francesco Dentali ◽  
Andrea Fabbri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Major Bleeding ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Bayer Healthcare ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Acute Pe

Abstract Background. New management strategies, risk stratification procedures and treatments have become available over the last years for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), leading to changes in clinical practice and potentially influencing patient's course and outcome. Methods: The COntemporary management of Pulmonary Embolism (COPE) is an academical prospective, non-interventional, multicentre study in patients with confirmed acute symptomatic PE. In-hospital and 30-day mortality were the co-primary study outcomes. At first evaluation, patients were categorized at low-risk (simplified PESI [sPESI]=0), intermediate-risk (further classified based presence/absence of increased levels and right ventricle dysfunction [RVD] at echocardiography) and high-risk (shock or cardiac arrest). Results. Among 5213 study patients, PE was confirmed by computed tomography in 96.3% and at least one test for risk stratification was obtained in more than 80% (81% echocardiography, 83% troponin, 56% brain natriuretic peptide/NT-pro BNP). Among 4885 patients entering the Emergency Department for acute PE, 1.2% were managed as outpatients and 5.8% by short-observation. In-hospital, 289 patients underwent reperfusion (5.5%); at discharge, 6.7% received a vitamin K antagonist and 75.6% a direct oral anticoagulant. Median duration of hospitalization was 7 days (IQR 5-12 days). Overall in-hospital mortality was 3.4% (49% due to PE, 16% cancer and 4.5% major bleeding) and 30-day mortality 4.8% (36% PE, 28% cancer and 4% major bleeding). In-hospital major bleeding was 2.6%. Death at 30 days occurred in 22.6% of 177 high-risk patients, in 6% of the 3281 intermediate-risk and in 0.5% of 1702 low-risk patients. Time to death at 30 days in patients at low, intermediate and high risk for death is reported in the Figure. Conclusions: COPE is the largest ever cohort of patients with acute PE. In this contemporary scenario, the majority of patients received CT for diagnosis, at least one test for risk stratification and direct oral anticoagulants as long-term treatment. Short term death remains not negligible in patients with high and intermediate-risk PE. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Becattini: Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria; Daiichi Sankyo: Honoraria; Bayer HealthCare: Honoraria. Agnelli: Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria; Daiichi Sankyo: Honoraria; Bayer HealthCare: Honoraria. Dentali: Daiichi Sankyo: Honoraria; Bayer: Honoraria; Sanofi: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Boehringer: Honoraria; Alfa Sigma: Honoraria.

scholarly journals Validation of the Predictive Model of the European Society of Cardiology for Early Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism

TH Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. e265-e271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimo Cugno ◽  
Federica Depetri ◽  
Laura Gnocchi ◽  
Fernando Porro ◽  
Paolo Bucciarelli
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
European Society ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
High Risk Category ◽  
European Society Of Cardiology ◽  
D Dimer

Background Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is burdened by high mortality, especially within 30 days from the diagnosis. The development and the validation of predictive models for the risk of early mortality allow to differentiate patients who can undergo home treatment from those who need admission into intensive care units. Methods To validate the prognostic model for early mortality after PE diagnosis proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in 2014, we analyzed data of a cohort of 272 consecutive patients with acute PE, observed in our hospital during a 10-year period. Moreover, we evaluated the additional contribution of D-dimer, measured at PE diagnosis, in improving the prognostic ability of the model. All cases of PE were objectively diagnosed by angiography chest CT scan or perfusion lung scan. Results The overall mortality rate within 30 days from PE diagnosis was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.4–13.5%). According to the ESC prognostic model, the risk of death increased 3.23 times in the intermediate-low-risk category, 5.55 times in the intermediate-high-risk category, and 23.78 times in the high-risk category, as compared with the low-risk category. The receiver operating characteristic analysis showed a good discriminatory power of the model (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.77 [95% CI: 0.67–0.87]), which further increased when D-dimer was added (AUC = 0.85 [95% CI: 0.73–0.96]). Conclusion This study represents a good validation of the ESC predictive model whose performance can be further improved by adding D-dimer plasma levels measured at PE diagnosis.

Tissue plasminogen activator as a novel diagnostic aid in acute pulmonary embolism

VASA ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 450-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Flores ◽  
Ángel García-Avello ◽  
Esther Alonso ◽  
Antonio Ruíz ◽  
Olga Navarrete ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Plasminogen Activator ◽  
Tissue Plasminogen Activator ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Diagnostic Utility ◽  
Tissue Plasminogen ◽  
D Dimer

Background: We evaluated the diagnostic efficacy of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and compared it with an ELISA D-dimer (VIDAS D-dimer) in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Patients and methods: We studied 127 consecutive outpatients with clinically suspected PE. The diagnosis of PE was based on a clinical probability pretest for PE and a strict protocol of imaging studies. A plasma sample to measure the levels of tPA and D-dimer was obtained at enrollment. Diagnostic accuracy for tPA and D-dimer was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and the diagnostic utility of tPA with a cutoff of 8.5 ng/mL and D-dimer with a cutoff of 500 ng/mL, were calculated for PE diagnosis. Results: PE was confirmed in 41 patients (32 %). Areas under ROC curves were 0.86 for D-dimer and 0.71 for tPA. The sensitivity/negative predictive value for D-dimer using a cutoff of 500 ng/mL, and tPA using a cutoff of 8.5 ng/mL, were 95 % (95 % CI, 88–100 %)/95 % (95 % CI, 88–100 %) and 95 % (95 % CI, 88–100 %)/94 %), respectively. The diagnostic utility to exclude PE was 28.3 % (95 % CI, 21–37 %) for D-dimer and 24.4 % (95 % CI, 17–33 %) for tPA. Conclusions: The tPA with a cutoff of 8.5 ng/mL has a high sensitivity and negative predictive value for exclusion of PE, similar to those observed for the VIDAS D-dimer with a cutoff of 500 ng/mL, although the diagnostic utility was slightly higher for the D-dimer.

scholarly journals Risk stratification in normotensive acute pulmonary embolism patients: focus on the intermediate–high risk subgroup

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Rita Santos ◽  
Pedro Freitas ◽  
Jorge Ferreira ◽  
Afonso Oliveira ◽  
Mariana Gonçalves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Ventricular Dysfunction ◽  
Right Ventricular Dysfunction ◽  
Cardiac Biomarkers ◽  
Cardiac Biomarker ◽  
Imaging Signs

Background: Patients with acute pulmonary embolism are at intermediate–high risk in the presence of imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction plus one or more elevated cardiac biomarker. We hypothesised that intermediate–high risk patients with two elevated cardiac biomarkers and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction have a worse prognosis than those with one cardiac biomarker and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction. Methods: We analysed the cumulative presence of cardiac biomarkers and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction in 525 patients with intermediate risk pulmonary embolism (intermediate-high risk = 237) presenting at the emergency department in two centres. Studied endpoints were composites of all-cause mortality and/or rescue thrombolysis at 30 days (primary endpoint; n=58) and pulmonary embolism-related mortality and/or rescue thrombolysis at 30 days (secondary endpoint; n=40). Results: Patients who experienced the primary endpoint showed a higher proportion of elevated troponin (47% vs. 76%, P<0.001), elevated N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (67% vs. 93%, P<0.001) and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction (47% vs. 80%, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (hazard ratio (HR) 3.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–10.3; P=0.015) and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction (HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.5–5.2; P=0.001) as independent predictors of events. In the intermediate–high risk group, patients with two cardiac biomarkers performed worse than those with one cardiac biomarker (HR 3.3, 95% CI 1.8–6.2; P=0.003). Conclusions: Risk stratification in normotensive pulmonary embolism should consider the cumulative presence of cardiac biomarkers and imaging signs of right ventricular dysfunction, especially in the intermediate–high risk subgroup.

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