Rainfed winter wheat cultivation in the North German Plain will be water limited under climate change until 2070

Abstract. The article presents the results of research of the South-Ukrainian branch of UkrNDIPVT L. Pogoriloho on the adaptation of winter wheat cultivation technologies in grain and steam crop rotations to increase the aridity of the climate by optimizing the density of standing plants, methods and depth of basic tillage. The purpose of research is to adjust the seeding rate by changing the width of the rows when growing winter wheat, as an agro-technological measure of accumulation and rational use of soil moisture (agro-technological direction of adaptation to climate change). Determining the influence of sowing rate, with different methods of tillage, on the productivity and economic efficiency of growing winter wheat in crop rotations on non-irrigated lands of southern Ukraine. Methods and Materials: field, quantitative-weight, visual and laboratory methods. Mathematical and statistical methods were used to systematize and generalize the obtained results. Research results. It has been experimentally established that the replacement of plowing to a depth of 28-30 cm for winter wheat crops with shallow (10-12 cm) disc tillage and reduction of the sowing rate of winter wheat variety «Kherson-99» to 2.25 million pieces similar seeds per hectare, by increasing the width between rows, provided an increase in grain yield by 16.7 % in 2020 and 7.7% in 2021. The profit per 1 hectare with this technology amounted to UAH 13280,5 in 2020 and UAH 28484,9 in 2021, which is 18.4 % and 9.3 % more than similar indicators in deep plowing and 31.3 % and 8.9 % more than the classic sowing rate (4.5 million units/ha). Conclusions. The efficiency of replacing deep plowing with shallow disc loosening and reducing the sowing rate to 2.25 million units/ha in the cultivation of winter wheat Kherson-99 in grain and steam crop rotation of the South of Ukraine was confirmed. A regularity in the size of the effect of reducing the seeding rate under drier conditions of the growing season was revealed.

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Using APSIM to explore wheat yield response to climate change in the North China Plain: the predicted adaptation of wheat cultivar types to vernalization

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859612000883 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 151 (6) ◽

pp. 836-848 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Y. ZHANG ◽

L. P. FENG ◽

J. WANG ◽

E. L. WANG ◽

Y. L. XU

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

North China Plain ◽

North China ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Wheat Cultivar ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Annual Variability ◽

The North ◽

The North China Plain

SUMMARYCultivar selection is a dominant factor in crop production to obtain high yield. While previous studies have evaluated a range of impacts and adaptation of climate change (CC) on crop yield, few studies have focused on evaluating the effectiveness of changing cultivars with different vernalization requirements as an adaptation. In the present study, mean and inter-annual variability of yield were quantified for three winter wheat cultivar types at three ecological sites (Shangzhuang in Beijing, Quzhou in Hebei and Huangfanqu in Henan) in the North China Plain, by linking a crop model and the outputs of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) for both the baseline (1961–90) and future SRES scenarios A2 and B2 (2070–2100). The results showed that a warming trend prolonged the length of the vegetative growth period of local cultivars through reduced vernalization, generally leading to a negative impact on yield. However, the introduction of cultivars with relatively lower vernalization demands from warmer southern to cooler northern regions could be an effective adaptation strategy to offset the negative impact of climatic change. Adjustment in cultivars increased yield at Shangzhuang and maintained it at Quzhou and Huangfanqu. Elevated CO2 would significantly increase yield in the future with or without considering the sensitivities of the selected cultivars. The inter-annual variability of yield generally increased in the A2 scenario, but decreased in the B2 scenario. Overall, winter wheat with semi-winter types or weak-winter types would grow preferentially, while cultivars with winter types would probably be reduced in future.

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Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario

Earth System Dynamics Discussions ◽

10.5194/esdd-6-2181-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 2181-2210 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Z. Sun ◽

S. F. Jia ◽

A. F. Lv ◽

K. J. Yang ◽

J. Svensson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Inner Mongolia ◽

Growth Period ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Multiple Regression Model ◽

Autonomous Region ◽

The North ◽

Ex Post ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.

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