scholarly journals The CADILLAC risk score accurately identifies patients at low risk for in-hospital mortality and adverse cardiovascular events following ST elevation myocardial infarction

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S. Wilson ◽  
Peter Malamas ◽  
Brent Dembo ◽  
Sumeet K. Lall ◽  
Ninad Zaman ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The CADILLAC risk score was developed to identify patients at low risk for adverse cardiovascular events following ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). Methods We performed a single center retrospective review of STEMI hospitalizations treated with PPCI from 2014 to 2018. Patients were stratified using the CADILLAC risk score into low risk, intermediate risk and high risk groups. Patients presenting with cardiac arrest or cardiogenic shock were excluded from the study. The primary outcome was adverse clinical events during initial hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were adverse clinical events at 30 days and 1 year following index hospitalization. Results The study included 341 patients. Compared to patients with a low CADILLAC score, adverse clinical events were similar in the intermediate risk group during hospitalization (OR 1.23, CI 0.37–4.05, p 0.733) and at 30 days (OR 2.27, CI 0.93–5.56, p 0.0733) while adverse clinical events were significantly elevated in the high risk group during hospitalization (OR 4.75, CI 1.91–11.84, p 0.0008) and at 30 days (OR 8.73, CI 4.02–18.96, p < 0.0001). At 1 year follow-up, compared to the low risk CADILLAC group (9.4% adverse clinical event rate), cumulative adverse clinical events were significantly higher in the intermediate risk group (22.9% event rate, OR 2.86, CI 1.39–5.89, p 0.0044) and in the elevated risk group (58.6% event rate, OR 13.67, CI 6.81–27.43, p < 0.0001). The mortality rate was 0% for patients defined at low risk by CADILLAC score during hospitalization, as well up to 1 year follow up. On receiver operating curve analysis, discrimination of in-hospital adverse clinical events was fair using CADILLAC (C = 0.66, odds ratio 1.18; 95% CI 1.04–1.33; p = 0.0064) with somewhat better discrimination at 30-day follow-up (C = 0.719) and 1-year follow-up (C = 0.715). Conclusion Patients defined as low risk by the CADILLAC score following a STEMI were associated with lower mortality and adverse clinical event rates during hospitalization and up to 1 year following STEMI when compared to those with an intermediate or high CADILLAC score.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan S. Wilson ◽  
Peter Malamas ◽  
Brent Dembo ◽  
Sumeet K Lall ◽  
Ninad Zaman DO ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The CADILLAC risk score was developed to identify patients at low risk for adverse cardiovascular events following ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). Methods: We performed a single center retrospective review of STEMI hospitalizations treated with PPCI from 2014 to 2018. Patients were stratified using the CADILLAC risk score into low risk group versus intermediate to high risk group. Patients presenting with cardiac arrest or cardiogenic shock were excluded from the study. The primary outcome was adverse clinical events during initial hospitalization. Secondary outcomes were adverse clinical events at 30 days and 1 year following index hospitalization. Results: The study included 314 patients. It was found that patients with a low CADILLAC score had significantly lower adverse clinical events compared to the intermediate-high CADILLAC score group (10/213 (4.7%) vs. 15/128 (11.7%), odds ratio = 0.37, 95% CI 0.16-0.85, p= 0.028). Additionally, patients with a low CADILLAC score had significantly lower adverse clinical event rates at 30 day and 1 year follow up. The mortality rate was 0% for patients defined at low risk by CADILLAC score during hospitalization, as well up to 1 year follow up. ROC curve predicting in hospital event rate showed CADILLAC (C=0.66, odds ratio 1.18; 95% CI 1.04 - 1.33; p=0.0064). Conclusion: Patients defined as low risk by the CADILLAC score following a STEMI were associated with lower event rates when compared to those with an intermediate-high CADILLAC score.


Author(s):  
Tze‐Fan Chao ◽  
Chern‐En Chiang ◽  
Tzeng‐Ji Chen ◽  
Jo‐Nan Liao ◽  
Ta‐Chuan Tuan ◽  
...  

Background Although several risk schemes have been proposed to predict new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF), clinical prediction models specific for Asian patients were limited. In the present study, we aimed to develop a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score) for AF prediction using the whole Taiwan population database with a long‐term follow‐up. Methods and Results Among 7 220 654 individuals aged ≥40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia identified from the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database, 438 930 incident AFs occurred after a 16‐year follow‐up. Clinical risk factors of AF were identified using Cox regression analysis and then combined into a clinical risk score (Taiwan AF score). The Taiwan AF score included age, male sex, and important comorbidities (hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end‐stage renal disease, and alcoholism) and ranged from −2 to 15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Taiwan AF scores in the predictions of AF are 0.857 for the 1‐year follow‐up, 0.825 for the 5‐year follow‐up, 0.797 for the 10‐year follow‐up, and 0.756 for the 16‐year follow‐up. The annual risks of incident AF were 0.21%/year, 1.31%/year, and 3.37%/year for the low‐risk (score −2 to 3), intermediate‐risk (score 4 to 9), and high‐risk (score ≥10) groups, respectively. Compared with low‐risk patients, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.78 (95% CI, 3.76–7.75) for the intermediate‐risk group and 8.94 (95% CI, 6.47–10.80) for the high‐risk group. Conclusions We developed a clinical AF prediction model, the Taiwan AF score, among a large‐scale Asian cohort. The new score could help physicians to identify Asian patients at high risk of AF in whom more aggressive and frequent detections and screenings may be considered.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Satou ◽  
H Kitahara ◽  
K Ishikawa ◽  
T Nakayama ◽  
Y Fujimoto ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The recent reperfusion therapy for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has made the length of hospital stay shorter without adverse events. CADILLAC risk score is reportedly one of the risk scores predicting the long-term prognosis in STEMI patients. Purpose To invenstigate the usefulness of CADILLAC risk score for predicting short-term outcomes in STEMI patients. Methods Consecutive patients admitted to our university hospital and our medical center with STEMI (excluding shock, arrest case) who underwent primary PCI between January 2012 and April 2018 (n=387) were enrolled in this study. The patients were classified into 3 groups according to the CADILLAC risk score: low risk (n=176), intermediate risk (n=87), and high risk (n=124). Data on adverse events within 30 days after hospitalization, including in-hospital death, sustained ventricular arrhythmia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure requiring intravenous treatment, stroke, or clinical hemorrhage, were collected. Results In the low risk group, adverse events within 30 days were significantly less observed, compared to the intermediate and high risk groups (n=13, 7.4% vs. n=13, 14.9% vs. n=58, 46.8%, p&lt;0.001). In particular, all adverse events occurred within 3 days in the low risk group, although adverse events, such as heart failure (n=4), recurrent myocardial infarction (n=1), stroke (n=1), and gastrointestinal bleeding (n=1), were substantially observed after day 4 of hospitalization in the intermediate and high risk groups. Conclusions In STEMI patients with low CADILLAC risk score, better short-term prognosis was observed compared to the intermediate and high risk groups, and all adverse events occurred within 3 days of hospitalization, suggesting that discharge at day 4 might be safe in this study population. CADILLAC risk score may help stratify patient risk for short-term prognosis and adjust management of STEMI patients. Initial event occurrence timing Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 534-534
Author(s):  
Natasha Catherine Edwin ◽  
Jesse Keller ◽  
Suhong Luo ◽  
Kenneth R Carson ◽  
Brian F. Gage ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients with multiple myeloma (MM) have a 9-fold increased risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE). Current guidelines recommend pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis in patients with MM receiving an immunomodulatory agent in the presence of additional VTE risk factors (NCCN 2015, ASCO 2014, ACCP 2012). However, putative risk factors vary across guidelines and no validated VTE risk tool exists for MM. Khorana et al. developed a VTE risk score in patients with solid organ malignancies and lymphoma (Blood, 2008). We sought to apply the Khorana et al. score in a population with MM. Methods We identified patients diagnosed with MM within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) between September 1, 1999 and December 31, 2009 using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-03 code 9732/3. We followed the cohort through October 2014. To eliminate patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering myeloma, we excluded patients who did not receive MM-directed therapy within 6 months of diagnosis. We also excluded patients who did not have data for hemoglobin (HGB), platelet (PLT) count, white blood count (WBC), height and weight, as these are all variables included in the Khorana et al. risk model. Height and weight were assessed within one month of diagnosis and used to calculate body mass index (BMI). We measured HGB, PLT count, and WBC count prior to treatment initiation: within two months of MM diagnosis. A previously validated algorithm, using a combination of ICD-9 code for VTE plus pharmacologic treatment for VTE or IVC filter placement, identified patients with incident VTE after MM diagnosis (Thromb Res, 2015). The study was approved by the Saint Louis VHA Medical Center and Washington University School of Medicine institutional review boards. We calculated VTE risk using the Khorana et al. score: We assigned 1 point each for: PLT ≥ 350,000/μl, HGB < 10 g/dl, WBC > 11,000/μl, and BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2. Patients with 0 points were at low-risk, 1-2 points were considered intermediate-risk and ≥3 points were termed high-risk for VTE. We assessed the relationship between risk-group and development of VTE using logistic regression at 3- and 6-months. We tested model discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (concordance statistic, c) with a c-statistic range of 0.5 (no discriminative ability) to 1.0 (perfect discriminative ability). Results We identified 1,520 patients with MM: 16 were high-risk, 802 intermediate-risk, and 702 low-risk for VTE using the scoring system in the Khorana et al. score. At 3-months of follow-up, a total of 76 patients developed VTE: 27 in the low-risk group, 48 in the intermediate-risk group, and 1 in the high-risk group. At 6-months of follow-up there were 103 incident VTEs: 41 in the low-risk group, 61 in the intermediate-risk group, and 1 in the high-risk group. There was no significant difference between risk of VTE in the high- or intermediate-risk groups versus the low-risk group (Table 1). The c-statistic was 0.56 at 3-months and 0.53 at 6-months (Figure 1). Conclusion Previously, the Khorana score was developed and validated to predict VTE in patients with solid tumors. It was not a strong predictor of VTE risk in MM. There is a need for development of a risk prediction model in patients with MM. Figure 1. Figure 1. Disclosures Carson: American Cancer Society: Research Funding. Gage:National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute: Research Funding. Kuderer:Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC: Consultancy, Honoraria. Sanfilippo:National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute: Research Funding.


Author(s):  
Carla Colombo ◽  
Simone De Leo ◽  
Marta Di Stefano ◽  
Matteo Trevisan ◽  
Claudia Moneta ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Controversies remain about the ideal risk-based surgical approach for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Methods At a single tertiary care institution, 370 consecutive patients with low- or intermediate-risk DTC were submitted to either lobectomy (LT) or total thyroidectomy (TT) and were followed up. Results Event-free survival by Kaplan–Meier curves was significantly higher after TT than after LT for the patients with either low-risk (P = 0.004) or intermediate-risk (P = 0.032) tumors. At the last follow-up visit, the prevalence of event-free patients was higher in the TT group than in the LT low-risk group (95% and 87.5%, respectively; P = 0.067) or intermediate-risk group (89% and 50%; P = 0.008). No differences in persistence prevalence were found among microcarcinomas treated by LT or TT (low risk, P = 0.938 vs. intermediate-risk, P = 0.553). Nevertheless, 15% of the low-risk and 50% of the intermediate-risk microcarcinomas treated by LT were submitted to additional treatments. On the other hand, macrocarcinomas were significantly more persistent if treated with LT than with TT (low-risk, P = 0.036 vs. intermediate-risk, P = 0.004). Permanent hypoparathyroidism was more frequent after TT (P = 0.01). After LT, thyroglobulin (Tg)/thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) had shown decreasing trend in 68% of the event-free patients and an increasing trend in the persistent cases. Conclusions Lobectomy can be proposed for low-risk microcarcinomas, although in a minority of cases, additional treatments are needed, and a longer follow-up period usually is required to confirm an event-free outcome compared with that for patients treated with TT. On the other hand, to achieve an excellent response, TT should be favored for intermediate-risk micro- and macro-DTCs despite the higher frequency of postsurgical complications.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Elbeyali

Abstract Background Non ST-elevation myocardial infarction is considered the intermediate form of acute coronary syndrome between unstable angina and ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Blockage either occurs in a minor coronary artery or causes partial obstruction of a major coronary artery. The rate of NSTEMI has increased to be 50% of all acute coronary syndrome. Purpose To compare some demographic, clinical risk assessments and angiographic data among high, intermediate and low risk NSTEMI patients. Methods We classified one hundred twenty (120) NSTEMI patients into 3groups by GRACE risk score (high risk group &gt;140, intermediate risk group from 109 to 140 and low risk group ≤108). The patients were evaluated by personal history taking, risk factors, clinical examination, ECG, laboratory investigations, echocardiography and percutaneous coronary intervention. Results We found that low risk group percentage was 47.5%, intermediate risk group percentage was 32.5% and high-risk group percentage was 20%. As regarding culprit lesion, LAD represent most affected artery (48.3% of patients).Recurrent ischemia and MI represent the highest percentage of major adverse cardiac event (MACE) among studied groups. All patients with LM disease have a MACE while 41.2% of MACE patients have significant LAD lesion. As time of intervention delayed the incidence of MACE increases among different groups. High risk group has significantly high percentage of type C lesion and TIMI 0/1 while type A lesion and TIMI III lesion highest among low risk patients. As regarding contour of the lesion, the irregularity increases as the clinical risk increases. Also as regarding occlusion of culprit artery, the incidence of total occlusion increases as the clinical risk increases. Conclusions We recommend selection of high-risk NSTEMI patient to direct them for early invasive therapy. Very high-risk directed for immediate revascularization like STEMI patient. NSTEMI considered precursors to STEMI and an early warning signal that aggressive medical intervention needed. Association between time to intervention Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): University budget


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 18-19
Author(s):  
Ferdows Atiq ◽  
Esmee Wuijster ◽  
Moniek P.M. de Maat ◽  
Marieke J.H.A. Kruip ◽  
Marjon H. Cnossen ◽  
...  

Introduction Although large studies have recently provided valuable insights on the diagnosis, bleeding phenotype, and treatment outcomes of VWD patients, these aspects remain poorly understood in individuals with low VWF. Firstly, there is no clear evidence which cut-off value should be used to diagnose low VWF. Although 0.50 IU/mL is the most recommended cut-off value, some centers use the lower limit of normal (0.60 IU/mL). Secondly, the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) and traumatic- or spontaneous bleeding after diagnosis of low VWF are still unknown. Lastly, it is hard to predict which individuals with low VWF have an increased bleeding risk. Therefore, we investigated the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL, and the incidence of post-surgical bleeding, PPH and traumatic- and spontaneous bleeding after their initial diagnosis of "low VWF". Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study from January 2007 to November 2019 at the Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam. All patients evaluated for the presence of a bleeding disorder with VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) and/or VWF activity (VWF:Act) and/or VWF collagen binding (VWF:CB) levels between 0.31-0.60 IU/mL, were included. Patients with VWF:Ag and/or VWF:Act and/or VWF:CB ≤0.30 IU/mL, acquired VWD and those with a concomitant bleeding disorder were excluded. For each individual we collected data from electronic patient files on baseline characteristics, reason for referral, family history of bleeding disorders, ISTH-BAT and laboratory measurements at diagnosis. Retrospective follow-up started from initial date of low VWF diagnosis through November 2019, during which we collected data on surgical procedures, pregnancies, and incidence of spontaneous- and traumatic bleeding. Results We included 439 patients; 269 patients with historically lowest VWF levels 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 170 patients 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Mean age at diagnosis was 28.8 ±17.7 years. Most patients were female (74.3%) and had blood group O (76.4%, Table 1). The bleeding score (BS) was similar in patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL (3.7 ±3.0) and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (4.0 ±2.9, p=0.209, Table 1). During the mean follow-up period of 6.3 ±3.7 years, 259 surgical procedures were performed in 146 patients, 81 deliveries in 56 women, and 109 spontaneous- or traumatic bleedings in 71 patients. The incidence of post-surgical bleeding was 7 (2.7%) during follow-up, whereas 8 deliveries (10%) were complicated by PPH. Overall, 65 out of 439 patients (14.8%) had a bleeding episode requiring treatment during follow-up, resulting in an incidence of bleeding requiring treatment of 0.5 ±1.9 per patient per decade. No difference was found in the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment between patients with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL (Figure 2A, p=0.154). We found that referral for a personal bleeding diathesis, a younger age at diagnosis and an abnormal BS at diagnosis were strong and independent risk factors for bleeding requiring treatment during follow-up, respectively HR=2.32 (95%CI: 1.16-4.63), HR=1.18 (95%CI: 1.01-1.38) and HR=1.77 (95%CI: 1.04-3.01). These risk factors were combined to develop a risk score to identify low VWF patients with an increased risk for bleeding requiring treatment (Figure 2B). The risk score performed excellent to differentiate in bleeding requiring treatment between low risk, intermediate risk and high risk patients (p&lt;0.001, Figure 2C). The number of patients with bleeding requiring treatment was 8/126 (6.3%) in patients with low risk, 18/143 (12.6%) in intermediate risk and 39/170 (22.9%) in high risk patients (p&lt;0.001). Likewise, the incidence of bleeding requiring treatment per patient per decade was 0.22 ±1.08 in low risk, 0.28 ±1.25 in intermediate risk and 0.87 ±2.61 in high risk patients (p=0.004, Figure 2D). Conclusion To conclude, there is no difference in the bleeding phenotype of individuals with historically lowest VWF levels of 0.31-0.50 IU/mL and 0.51-0.60 IU/mL. Therefore, the cut-off value to diagnose low VWF should be set at 0.60 IU/mL. Furthermore, the risk score developed in the current study may assist to identify low VWF patients with low, intermediate and high risk for future bleeding. Disclosures Atiq: SOBI: Other: travel grant; CSL Behring: Research Funding. Kruip:Boehringer Ingelheim: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; SOBI: Research Funding; Bayer: Speakers Bureau. Cnossen:Takeda: Research Funding; Shire: Research Funding; Baxter: Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Sobi: Research Funding; CSL behring: Research Funding; Nordic Pharma: Research Funding; Novo Nordisk: Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding. Leebeek:CSL Behring: Research Funding; Shire/Takeda: Research Funding; Uniqure: Consultancy; Shire/Takeda: Consultancy; Novo Nordisk: Consultancy; SOBI: Other: Travel grant; Roche: Other: DSMB member for a study.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2971-2971
Author(s):  
Shivani Kapur ◽  
Kayla Feehan ◽  
Samuel Mosiman ◽  
Susan Frankki ◽  
Lori J Rosenstein

Abstract Background: Multiple Myeloma (MM) is associated with increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Treatment, such as dexamethasone, immunomodulatory drugs (IMID), alkylating agents, and doxorubicin, alter hemostatic pathways and thus promote thrombogenesis 1. MM patients with VTE have a 3-fold increase in mortality compared to those without VTE, so identifying those at risk and aiming to prevent VTE events is important 2. Several clinical VTE risk prediction scores have been developed, including the SAVED score, IMPEDE VTE score, and more recently the PRISM score 2,4,5. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network suggests that patient with MM on IMID therapy should be on aspirin, or therapeutic anticoagulation for those at "high risk"3. However, it remains unclear which risk model, if any, should be used.Our objective was to validate the three published risk assessment tools in a community setting and assess the predictive ability of each. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of all patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma who started chemotherapy at Gundersen Health System (La Crosse, WI) between 2010 and 2020 who had at least 6 months of follow up documented. Patients with prior indication for ongoing therapeutic anticoagulation or a diagnosis of VTE within 6 months prior to starting therapy were excluded. Total scores for IMPEDE VTE, SAVED and PRISM scores were calculated from the chemotherapy start date. Statistical analysis included Chi-square, Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon rank sum tests, and Kaplan Meier survival analysis. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant and all analysis was completed in SAS version 9.4. Results: Our cohort contained 123 patients diagnosed with MM. Average age was 68 years (SD 12.1, range 37-92). Our study included 68 (55%) males and 55 (45%) females with 121 (98%) being White/Caucasian. The mean BMI of patients was 29.4 kg/m2 (SD 7.0, range 18.6-54.4). Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed a 5-year survival rate of 53.1% (95% CI [42.7%, 63.4%]). In the entire cohort, 10 (8.1%) patients were diagnosed with VTE (as compared to 5.8% in IMPEDE study, 8.7% in SAVED study and 8.2% in PRISM study) with 80.0% occurring within 6 months of treatment start date. Aspirin was the most frequently used agent for thromboprophylaxis with 88 (86.3%) patients receiving either 81, 162, or 325 mg of aspirin. IMID therapy was given to 76 (61.8%) patients, 114 (92.7%) received dexamethasone and 114 (92.7%) received proteasome inhibitors. Amongst those on IMIDs, 72 (94.7%) patients received prophylaxis, most commonly aspirin. Abnormal metaphase cytogenetics were noted in 104 (85.4%) patients. Neither the IMPEDE VTE (p=0.6), SAVED (p=0.9) nor PRISM risk scores (p=0.3) were able to statistically predict VTE outcome in our patient population. Using the IMPEDE score, 7 patients in the intermediate risk group and 3 patients in the low-risk group had a VTE. In the SAVED model, 5 patients in the low-risk group and 5 patients in the high-risk group had a VTE. Using the PRISM risk score, all 10 of the patients with VTE were in the intermediate risk group. Most patients who were on IMID therapy fell into the intermediate risk group on the IMPEDE VTE and PRISM scoring systems, and the SAVED score had an approximately equal patient distribution between the high risk and low risk group. Conclusions: Our patients with multiple myeloma had similar rates of VTE as compared to the published models, with the majority occurring in the first 6 months of chemotherapy. In total, our patients on IMID therapy received appropriate prophylaxis with aspirin. Overall, 8.1% of our patients had a VTE event. However, none of the three risk models were able to predict the development of VTE. In fact, many of the VTE events occurred in patients who were felt to be low or intermediate risk. While the sample size is small and from a single health system, we had excellent follow up and ability to closely examine each chart for treatment and outcomes. Further efforts should focus on collaboration across institutions to increase the sample size, to validate and compare existing models. The majority of myeloma treatment occurs in the community; thus, it is important to ensure the findings are reproducible in that patient population. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4718-4718
Author(s):  
Afsaneh M. Shariatpanahi ◽  
Sarah Grasedieck ◽  
Matthew C. Jarvis ◽  
Faezeh Borzooee ◽  
Reuben S. Harris ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The prognosis of MM is determined by affected organs, tumor burden as measured by e.g., the international staging system (ISS), disease biology such as cytogenetic abnormalities, and response to therapy. The outcome of high-risk MM patients classified by ISS or adverse risk cytogenetics is not uniform and patients show heterogeneous survival. Recent insights into the pathogenesis of MM highlighted genome/transcriptome editing as well as inflammation as drivers for the onset and progression of MM. We hypothesized that inclusion of molecular features into risk stratification could potentially resolve the challenge of accurately distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk MM patients at initial diagnosis and improve outcome. Aim: We aimed to create a simple molecular risk score to identify unrecognized patient subgroups, who have been previously misclassified by current risk stratifiers. Method: The Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation CoMMpass study genomics dataset, combining mRNA Seq and clinical data from more than 700 MM patients, allowed us to evaluate the prognostic value of demographic and clinical parameters, cytogenetics, and gene expression levels of APOBEC genes as well as inflammation-modulating cytokines in MM patients. We calculated hazard ratios and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for all extracted features. Combining clinical variables that were significantly associated with PFS and OS, we then applied machine learning approaches to identify the most accurate classification model to define a new risk score that is easy to compute and able to stratify NDMM patients more accurately than cytogenetics-based classifiers. Based on a Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, we then evaluated the performance of our newly built EI score in sub-classifying of current multiple myeloma risk stratifiers. Results: Based on machine learning models, we defined a weighted OS/PFS risk score (Editor-Inflammation (EI) score) based on mRNA expression of APOBEC2, APOBEC3B, IL11, TGFB1, TGFB3, as well as ß2-microglobulin and LDH serum levels. We showed that the EI score subclassified patients into high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk prognostic groups and demonstrated superior performance (C-index: 0.76) compared to ISS (C-index: 0.66) and R-ISS (C-index: 0.64). We further showed that EI low-risk patients do not benefit from autograft and maintenance therapy. Re-classification of ISS (Figure 1a, b, c) and R-ISS risk groups further confirmed the superiority of the EI score. In addition, the EI score identified previously unrecognized distinct subgroups of MM patients with adverse risk cytogenetics but good prognosis (Figure 1d, e, f). For example, the EI score excellently subclassified del(17p) MM patients into three main risk subgroups including a super low-risk group (none of them has p53 mut) with 5-year OS of 100%, an intermediate-risk group (30% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 75%, and a very poor prognosis group of patients (40% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 0% (2y OS: 40%) (Figure 1f). In line, we could show that patients with del(17p) and high EI score exhibit an enrichment of APOBEC induced genomic mutations compared to intermediate-risk and low-risk patients supporting the hypothesis that del(17p) along with high APOBEC expression levels activate the APOBEC mutation program and thus create an optimal environment for tumor progression. These findings support the necessity of a prognostic score that more accurately reflects MM disease biology. Conclusion: Although MM is considered as an incurable disease, an improved risk stratification could help to identify previously unrecognized low- and high-risk patient subgroups that are over- or undertreated and lead to improved outcomes. Our EI score is a simple score that is based on recent insights into MM biology and accurately identifies high-risk and low-risk newly diagnosed MM patients as well as misclassified MM patients in different cytogenetic and ISS risk subgroups. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 1323-1323
Author(s):  
Anna Hecht ◽  
Florian Nolte ◽  
Daniel Nowak ◽  
Verena Nowak ◽  
Benjamin Hanfstein ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction With current therapy regimens over 75% of patients with de novo acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) can be cured. Approaches to further improve patient outcome by stratifying patients at the time of initial diagnosis according to their individual risk and to adjust therapy accordingly have been based on clinical features only. Molecular markers have not been established for risk stratification as yet. Recently, we have shown that high expression levels of the genes brain and acute leukemia, cytoplasmic (BAALC) and ets related gene (ERG) are associated with inferior outcome in APL patients. In addition, data indicate that aberrant expression of the gene Wilms’ tumor 1 (WT1) is a negative prognostic factor with regard to overall survival (OS) after complete remission (CR) and relapse free survival (RFS) in APL. In this study we evaluated the prognostic relevance of a combined score integrating the expression levels of the above mentioned genes to further improve risk stratification in APL patients. Methods Expression levels of BAALC, ERG and WT1 of 62 patients with newly diagnosed APL were retrospectively analyzed in bone marrow mononuclear cells using multiplex reverse transcriptase quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). Median age of patients was 47 years (range: 19 to 82y). All patients gave informed consent. Patients were diagnosed and treated in the German AML Cooperative Group (AMLCG) study with a treatment of simultaneous ATRA and double induction chemotherapy including high-dose ara-C, consolidation and maintenance chemotherapy. The following gene expression levels were identified as negative risk factors in preceding studies: BAALC expression ≥25th percentile (BAALChigh), ERG expression >75th percentile (ERGhigh) and WT1 expression ≤25th percentile or ≥75th percentile (WT1low/high). A risk score was developed as follows: for the presence of one of the mentioned risk factors one scoring point was assigned to a respective patient, i.e. a maximum of 3 points (one point for BAALChigh, ERGhigh and WT1low/high, respectively) and a minimum of 0 points (i.e. presenting with none of the aforementioned risk factors) could be allocated to one patient. Accordingly, patients were divided into four risk groups: 7 patients scored 0 points (= low risk), 27 patients scored 1 point (= intermediate 1 risk), 19 patients scored 2 points (= intermediate 2 risk) and 9 patients scored 3 points (= high risk). Subsequently, OS, RFS and relapse free interval (RFI) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test was used to compare differences between the four risk groups (p<0.05). Results The integrative risk score divided patients into four groups with significantly different outcome. The low risk group showed a RFS of 100% at 10 years of follow-up compared to the intermediate 1 risk group with 81%, the intermediate 2 risk group with 58% and the high risk group with a RFS of 42% only (median survival: 4.6y) (p=0.02). In accordance, the RFI differed significantly between the four groups: low risk 100%, intermediate 1 risk 100%, intermediate 2 risk 89% and high risk 71% (p=0.049). There was no statistically significant difference between the 4 groups with regard to OS in the entire patient cohort. However, there was a clear trend towards a difference in OS in patients who achieved a CR after induction therapy: low risk 100%, intermediate 1 risk 81%, intermediate 2 risk 68% and high risk 53% survival at 10 years of follow-up (p=0.09). Conclusion Integration of expression levels of the genes BAALC, ERG and WT1 into a scoring system identifies 4 risk groups with significantly different outcome with regard to RFS and RFI. It might be a promising approach to guide therapeutic decisions in patients with APL. However, multivariate analyses and validation of these data in an independent patient cohort is warranted. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document