scholarly journals The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness simulation tool: CovidSIM

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristan A. Schneider ◽  
Gideon A. Ngwa ◽  
Markus Schwehm ◽  
Linda Eichner ◽  
Martin Eichner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Web Interface ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Peak Number ◽  
Efficient Control ◽  
Control And Management

Abstract Background Efficient control and management in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic needs to carefully balance economical and realizable interventions. Simulation models can play a cardinal role in forecasting possible scenarios to sustain decision support. Methods We present a sophisticated extension of a classical SEIR model. The simulation tool CovidSIM Version 1.0 is an openly accessible web interface to interactively conduct simulations of this model. The simulation tool is used to assess the effects of various interventions, assuming parameters that reflect the situation in Austria as an example. Results Strict contact reduction including isolation of infected persons in quarantine wards and at home can substantially delay the peak of the epidemic. Home isolation of infected individuals effectively reduces the height of the peak. Contact reduction by social distancing, e.g., by curfews, sanitary behavior, etc. are also effective in delaying the epidemic peak. Conclusions Contact-reducing mechanisms are efficient to delay the peak of the epidemic. They might also be effective in decreasing the peak number of infections depending on seasonal fluctuations in the transmissibility of the disease.

Database of Environmental Decision Support Tools

2013 ◽  
pp. 70-96
Author(s):  
Mari Ivask ◽  
Eve Aruvee ◽  
Kristjan Piirimäe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Knowledge Bases ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Web Pages ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Software Applications ◽  
Qualitative Knowledge ◽  
Environmental Decision

This chapter investigates modeling and data sources for environmental decision support for local authorities and private managers. A metadatabase of 198 computerized environmental decision tools was collected using a questionnaire with two sequential web-pages of 4+16 questions (http://tess.ttu.ee/). Half of the software applications are freely downloadable and well described online. The database contains 42 references reported as forestry tools, 50 as agriculture or apiculture tools, and 15 targeting to either amenity areas or tourism and access-based recreation. The most domain-general toolbox, InVEST, integrates models which support management of natural capital, including pollination of crops and production of timber, but is limited in types of natural capital and management situations. Agricultural toolboxes DSSAT and MicroLEIS cover soil quality issues well but ignore management of agricultural landscapes where natural and semi-natural habitats provide wild crop pollination, biocontrol of pests, and other services. The most prominent sustainable forestry toolboxes are UBC-FM and NED-2. The latter contains simulation models and qualitative knowledge bases, but complex forest management conditions require more flexible metamodeling approaches. For the management of recreational sites, no integrated toolkit exists. As most of the existing environmental tools support option assessment, future development should address also earlier decision-making steps.

Prediction Reliability of Container Terminal Simulation Models

2010 ◽  
pp. 315-335
Author(s):  
Armando Cartenì
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Container Terminal ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Prediction Reliability

In this chapter attention is focused on the container terminal optimization problem, given that today most international cargo is transported through seaports and on containerized vessels. In this context, in order to manage a container terminal it is sometimes necessary to develop a Decision Support System (DSS). This chapter investigated the prediction reliability of container terminal simulation models (DSS), through a before and after analysis, taking advantage of some significant investment made by the Salerno Container Terminal (Italy) between 2003 and 2008. In particular, disaggregate and an aggregate simulation models implemented in 2003 were validated with a large set of data acquired in 2008 after some structural and functional terminal modifications. Through this analysis it was possible to study both the mathematical details required for model application and the field of application (prediction reliability) of the different simulation approaches implemented.

scholarly journals Simulation Modeling of the Sustainable Supply Chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrycja Hoffa-Dabrowska ◽  
Katarzyna Grzybowska
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Exhaust Emissions ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Sustainable Supply Chain ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

The development of the global economy affects the environment in which we are living, often in negative ways, including pollutions, exhaust emissions, depletion of natural resources, and other concerns. Therefore, it is so important to use resources in a reasonable, sustainable manner and to be aware of the impact of our activities on the environment, which in the next stage translates into trying to limit negative impacts to the environment. Aspects of sustainable supply chain (SSC) have become more and more popular in the last years. Entrepreneurs pay more attention to the aspect of sustainable development in their activities, especially to exhaust emissions. The rational use of resources is also a very important topic. Not only economic aspects but also environmental and social topics are taken into account in company politics, which is characteristic of sustainable development. The main purpose of this article is to show the benefits of SSC. For this purpose, the simulation models showing the supply chain and the sustainable supply chain will be built. The benefits of SSC in economic and environmental aspects will be presented using a computer simulation tool. Using a simulation tool fits in with sustainability; thanks to modeling supply chains in their virtuality and analysis, many resources can be saved in reality (for example, thanks to the consolidation of freight).

Re-inventing model-based decision support with Australian dryland farmers. 1. Changing intervention concepts during 17 years of action research

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (11) ◽  
pp. 1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. McCown ◽  
P. S. Carberry ◽  
Z. Hochman ◽  
N. P. Dalgliesh ◽  
M. A. Foale
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Support Intervention ◽  
Decision Support Intervention ◽  
Systems Research ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Starting Point

The idea that simulation models of agricultural production can serve as tools for farmers remains a compelling idea even after 3 decades of mostly disappointing development efforts. This paper is the first in a series that reports on 17 years of systems research that used models differently from the Decision Support System idea that has dominated the field. The starting point of FARMSCAPE (Farmers’, Advisers’, Researchers’, Monitoring, Simulation, Communication And Performance Evaluation) was finding whether farmers could value simulation when conditions for appreciation were improved by (a) specifying the simulator for individual paddocks in question and (b) delivering customised simulation to decision makers as a supporting service rather than software as a decision support product. The first aim of the program has been to learn how to effectively intervene in farm management practice using complex, abstract models of croplands, specified with local soil, climate, and management data. The second aim has been to learn how a resulting service that farmers value can be delivered cost effectively by a third party. This first paper deals with an aspect of the first aim, i.e. valued decision support intervention. In the terms used by Checkland (1981), the activities that served this systems practice aim were guided by ‘what we thought we were doing’ in intervening in farmers’ practice, i.e. our systems thinking. This first paper concerns FARMSCAPE systems thinking and how it evolved over 17 years as we learned successively through discovery of a new concept or representation in the literature to overcome limitations of the then-current conceptual framework. Subsequent papers deal with customising scientific monitoring and simulation for farmers, communication as engagement in situations of practice, understanding decision support intervention as facilitation of personal knowledge construction, and piloting commercial delivery of a simulation-based service to farmers and their advisers.

A Decision Support System for Solving Linear Programming Problems

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-62
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Ploskas ◽  
Nikolaos Samaras ◽  
Jason Papathanasiou
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Simplex Algorithm ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Web Interface ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Linear Programming Problems ◽  
Revised Simplex Algorithm ◽  
The Given ◽  
Programming Algorithms

Linear programming algorithms have been widely used in Decision Support Systems. These systems have incorporated linear programming algorithms for the solution of the given problems. Yet, the special structure of each linear problem may take advantage of different linear programming algorithms or different techniques used in these algorithms. This paper proposes a web-based DSS that assists decision makers in the solution of linear programming problems with a variety of linear programming algorithms and techniques. Two linear programming algorithms have been included in the DSS: (i) revised simplex algorithm and (ii) exterior primal simplex algorithm. Furthermore, ten scaling techniques, five basis update methods and eight pivoting rules have been incorporated in the DSS. All linear programming algorithms and methods have been implemented using MATLAB and converted to Java classes using MATLAB Builder JA, while the web interface of the DSS has been designed using Java Server Pages.

scholarly journals Parachute-Payload System Flight Dynamics and Trajectory Simulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Guglieri
Keyword(s):  
General Procedure ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Flight Simulation ◽  
Mission Design ◽  
Coupling Mechanism ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Multibody Model ◽  
Deceleration Phase ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Implementation Guidelines

The work traces a general procedure for the design of a flight simulation tool still representative of the major flight physics of a parachute-payload system along decelerated trajectories. An example of limited complexity simulation models for a payload decelerated by one or more parachutes is given, including details and implementation features usually omitted as the focus of the research in this field is typically on the investigation of mission design issues, rather than addressing general implementation guidelines for the development of a reconfigurable simulation tool. The dynamics of the system are modeled through a simple multibody model that represents the expected behavior of an entry vehicle during the terminal deceleration phase. The simulators are designed according to a comprehensive vision that enforces the simplification of the coupling mechanism between the payload and the parachute, with an adequate level of physical insight still available. The results presented for a realistic case study define the sensitivity of the simulation outputs to the functional complexity of the mathematical model. Far from being an absolute address for the software designer, this paper tries to contribute to the area of interest with some technical considerations and clarifications.

Symposium Analysis and Modeling of Use of Procedures in Dynamic Worlds: Implications for the Design of Computer-Based Procedures

1994 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 194-194
Author(s):  
Emilie M. Roth ◽  
Kevin M. Corker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Operator Performance ◽  
Risk Environments ◽  
Computer Based

In dynamic high risk environments, such as aviation, air traffic control, and nuclear power plant operations, when emergencies arise, the burden of diagnosing and developing a response strategy in real time can be very high. One response to this problem that has been adopted in a number of domains is to develop preplanned response strategies in the form of procedures that the person-on-the-scene is expected to follow in dealing with the emergency. This symposium examines the cognitive demands inherent in responding to emergencies when procedures are available, and the implications for development of computer-based procedures and related decision-support systems. The four papers examine procedure-supported performance from different perspectives. Three of the papers directly compare operator performance in simulated emergencies using paper-based procedures with operator performance using prototypes of computer-based procedures. The paper by Converse, reports an empirical study comparing operator performance using these two modes of support. The papers by Laughery and Persensky and Hoecker, Corker, Roth, Lipner and Bunzo examine the use of simulation models of operator performance as engineering tools for predicting the effect of computer-based procedures on operator performance. All three papers point to ways in which computer-based procedures facilitate operator performance and ways in which they impose new demands. The fourth paper, by Roth, investigates operator performance in more complex simulated emergencies that are not fully addressed by the procedures. The paper describes the cognitive activities required of operators to recognize and deal with situations that go beyond the available procedural guidance, and discusses implications for the design of computerized procedures and related decision support systems.

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