scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data ( R 2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The R eff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Imported Infections

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177011 on October 22, 2020 (384 days from the first case), and 17129367 cases would be reported until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021), with a total attack rate of 63.66%. These results revealed that the interventions implemented in Jilin Province had reduced more than 99.99% cases.Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had great effectiveness.

REVIEW ARTICLE ABOUT PERINATALAND NEONATAL MANAGEMENT FOR THE PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF THE 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS INFECTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-57
Author(s):  
Isra Khalil Mohammed Ali Saeed ◽  
Maha Hussein Mohammed Hamza ◽  
Hiba Hussein Ibrahim ◽  
Esmehan Elkheir Babeker ◽  
Ibrahim Ismail M.Abu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care Units ◽  
Community Physician ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Who Guideline ◽  
Immature Immune System

An epidemic of new coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged in China since December 2019. WHO declared it as a pandemic on March 2020 as it has spread worldwide. Several cases among neonate were observed with rst reported 36 hours after birth. Due to the possibility of the infection and the immature immune system of the neonate there should be preventive and control measures at Neonatal Intensive Care Units. According to WHO guideline and other published articles in COVID-19 in infants and neonate a technical working group including community physician and Pediatricians has put measures for clinical management, prevention and control of COVID-19 in neonates.

scholarly journals Notes from the Field: Effectiveness of Prevention and Control Measures for Imported COVID-19 in Guangming District of Shenzhen

2020 ◽  
pp. 016327872097183
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Chen ◽  
Tieqiang Wang ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Yunjie Wu ◽  
Ranran Qie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Screening Strategy ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Returning To Work ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was present in most provinces of China after January 2020. We implemented a surveillance and screening strategy that included early detection of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and people who were exposed to the disease in Guangming District of Shenzhen. Separate targeted treatment and management strategies were applied to confirmed and suspected cases. From January 23 to March 13, 2020, we found 12 suspected cases, and 11 were confirmed as positive. Although eight of the 11 confirmed cases were family-aggregated, they were all imported cases with common exposure, which did not further cause local community transmission, and no medical staff were infected. After February 14, when the last case was confirmed, there were no newly confirmed cases for 28 consecutive days under the strict outbreak control. The targeted and whole-society involved prevention and control measures prevented the spread of the disease in a very short time and provided a strong guarantee for the orderly recovery of returning to work and social activities.

scholarly journals Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First and Second COVID-19 Epidemics in Beijing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lequan Min
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

AbstractTo date, over 130 million people on infected with COVID-19. It causes more 2.8 millions deaths. This paper introduces a symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-dead differential equation model (SARDDE). It gives the conditions of the asymptotical stability on the disease-free equilibrium of SARDDE. It proposes the necessary conditions of disease spreading for the SARDDE. Based on the reported data of the first and the second COVID-19 epidemics in Beijing and simulations, it determines the parameters of SARDDE, respectively. Numerical simulations of SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; blocking rate of about 90% cannot prevent the spread of the COVID19 epidemic in Beijing; the strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Beijing government is not only very effective but also completely necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the day after about two weeks at the turning point can estimate well or approximately the following outcomes of the two COVID-19 academics, respectively. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Internet Hospitals Help Prevent and Control the Epidemic of COVID-19 in China: Multicenter User Profiling Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Gong ◽  
Zhong Xu ◽  
Zhefeng Cai ◽  
Yuxiu Chen ◽  
Zhanxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
User Profiling ◽  
Kappa Score ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND During the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), internet hospitals in China were engaged with epidemic prevention and control, offering epidemic-related online services and medical support to the public. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to explore the role of internet hospitals during the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. METHODS Online epidemic-related consultations from multicenter internet hospitals in China during the COVID-19 epidemic were collected. The counselees were described and classified into seven type groups. Symptoms were recorded and compared with reported patients with COVID-19. Hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were detected within each counselees’ group to evaluate the social panic of the epidemic along with the consequent medical-seeking behaviors. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for an offline visit were compared. Risk factors affecting the counselees’ tendency of hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were explored by logistic regression models. The epidemic prevention and control measures based on internet hospitals were listed, and the corresponding effects were discussed. RESULTS A total of 4913 consultations were enrolled for analysis with the median age of the counselees at 28 years (IQR 22-33 years). There were 104 (2.12%) healthy counselees, 147 (2.99%) hypochondriacal counselees, 34 (0.69%) exposed counselees, 853 (17.36%) mildly suspicious counselees, 42 (0.85%) moderately suspicious counselees, 3550 (72.26%) highly suspicious counselees, and 183 (3.72%) severely suspicious counselees. A total of 94.20% (n=4628) of counselees had epidemic-related symptoms with a distribution similar to those of COVID-19. The hypochondriacal suspicion (n=2167, 44.11%) was common. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for offline visits were inconsistent (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) with a Cohen kappa score of 0.039, indicating improper medical-seeking behaviors. Adult counselees (odds ratio [OR]=1.816, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) with epidemiological exposure (OR 7.568, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), shortness of breath (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.001), diarrhea (OR 1.272, <i>P</i>=.04), and unrelated symptoms (OR 1.509, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to have hypochondriacal suspicion. Counselees with severe illnesses (OR 2.303, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), fever (OR 1.660, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), epidemiological exposure history (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.01), and hypochondriacal suspicion (OR 4.826, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to attempt an offline visit. Reattending counselees (OR 0.545, <i>P</i>=.002) were less motivated to go to the offline clinic. CONCLUSIONS Internet hospitals can serve different types of epidemic counselees, offer essential medical supports to the public during the COVID-19 outbreak, reduce the social panic, promote social distancing, enhance the public’s ability of self-protection, correct improper medical-seeking behaviors, reduce the chance of nosocomial cross-infection, and facilitate epidemiological screening, thus, playing an important role on preventing and controlling COVID-19.

scholarly journals Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-146
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull. Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths. Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen.

scholarly journals Experiences and Practices in the Current Prevention and Control of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shen Shao ◽  
Zichen Zhou ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Shuyu Liu ◽  
Lu Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Lung Diseases ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
International Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Type ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

ABSTRACT Since December 2019, several new infectious diseases, mainly lung diseases caused by novel coronavirus infections, have been discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province. With the spread of the epidemic, cases in other regions of China and abroad have been confirmed. This sudden outbreak of a new type of infectious disease has seriously threatened people’s health and safety, and China has adopted strong prevention and control measures in response. To provide a reference for international health emergency management workers, this article summarizes, from an academic perspective, the main prevention and control measures taken in China.

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