scholarly journals Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-146
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull. Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths. Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen.

scholarly journals Statistical Distribution of Novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background The Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by 2019-nCoV is spreading worldwide, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Prevention and control of infection is the most important priority for the public health. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is an important problem. Methods In this research, we compared the different distributions of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data of Iran. We used 36 initial data on new cases and deaths with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection of Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes .We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal and Weibull. Results Our study showed that the weibull distribution was the best fit with the data. But the Parameters of distribution were different between new cases and daily deaths data. Conclusion According to the mean and median of the best fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. The death rate is decreasing. We can see the similar behaviors of covid-19 in both Iran and China in the long run.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data ( R 2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The R eff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-19’s actual initial cases in Wuhan, China and the impact of different interventions and imports in the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. 03047
Author(s):  
Xiaochuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Intervention Level ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Start your abstract here…In late 2019, a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 outbreak began in China and has since spread around the world, causing nearly one million deaths. By the time this article was written, most countries were still in high-and medium-risk, and this pandemic may continue to the year 2021 or even later. However, when this virus first appeared is still under debate. In this paper, I employ a realistic model and the officially reported data to investigate when SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in China, and how many people were infected with the novel coronavirus at the beginning of Dec in 2019. In addition, I used simulation to get the relationship between imported cases and local intervention measures to predict the current intervention level in China. Based on the first part of the simulation, the result indicate that the number and time of the initial cases reported in China might have under a certain inaccuracy. This underestimation of the severity of the pandemic delayed the progress of epidemic prevention and control. In addition, the increase or decrease of imported cases and the intensity of epidemic prevention measures will directly affect the arrival of the epidemic peak. Of course, the number of incoming cases at this time also has a direct impact on the number of deaths and confirmed patients. We used the model to simulate the overall diagnosis of the disease in Wuhan in the early and late stages of the epidemic, and to approximate the difference between the real and the official data. In addition, we also for the late number of imported cases and different intervention has been analyzed, for the future of the normalization of prevention and control recommendations.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

An evaluation model of 2019-nCoV prevention effectiveness based on immigration data in China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiangsheng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Related Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

BACKGROUND As of the end of February 2020, 2019-nCoV is currently well controlled in China. However, the virus is now spreading globally. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control measures in a region. METHODS A model is built for find the best fit for two sets of data (the number of daily new diagnosed, and the risk value of incoming immigration population). The parameters (offset and time window) in the model can be used as the evaluation of effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control. RESULTS Through study, it is found that the parameter offset and time window in the model can accurately reflect the prevention effectiveness. Some related data and public news confirm this result. And this method has advantages over the method using R0 in two aspects. CONCLUSIONS If the epidemic situation is well controlled, the virus is not terrible. Now the daily new diagnosed patients in most regions of China is quickly reduced to zero or close to zero. Chinese can do a good job in the face of huge epidemic pressure. Therefore, if other countries can do well in prevention and control, the epidemic in those places can also pass quickly.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimization of Integrated Civilian-Military Scheduling of Medical Supplies for Epidemic Prevention and Control

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Ling ◽  
Zheng-Lian Su ◽  
Xun-Lin Jiang ◽  
Yu-Jun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Minimum Ratio

In a large-scale epidemic, such as the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), there is huge demand for a variety of medical supplies, such as medical masks, ventilators, and sickbeds. Resources from civilian medical services are often not sufficient for fully satisfying all of these demands. Resources from military medical services, which are normally reserved for military use, can be an effective supplement to these demands. In this paper, we formulate a problem of integrated civilian-military scheduling of medical supplies for epidemic prevention and control, the aim of which is to simultaneously maximize the overall satisfaction rate of the medical supplies and minimize the total scheduling cost, while keeping a minimum ratio of medical supplies reservation for military use. We propose a multi-objective water wave optimization (WWO) algorithm in order to efficiently solve this problem. Computational results on a set of problem instances constructed based on real COVID-19 data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Risk factors of dengue fever in an urban area in Vietnam: a case-control study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang Nguyen-Tien ◽  
Duy Cuong Do ◽  
Xuan Luat Le ◽  
Thi Hai Dinh ◽  
Mats Lindeborg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Younger Adults ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Dengue Prevention ◽  
And Control ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne flavivirus present in many metropolitan cities of tropical countries. Methods During and after the dengue season (September 2018 to January 2019), we conducted a case-control study in order to determine the risk factors for dengue fever in Hanoi city, Vietnam. 98 dengue patients and 99 patients with other acute infections, such as Hepatitis B virus infection, were recruited at Department of Infectious Disease of Bach Mai national hospital in Hanoi. Patients were interviewed using a structured questionnaire covering demographic, housing, environmental factors and knowledge, attitude, and practice on dengue prevention and control. Univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine the risk factors of dengue status. Results The mean score of knowledge items and practice items was only 7.9 out of total 19 points and 3.9 out of total 17 points, respectively. While the mean score of attitude items was 4.8 out of total 6 points. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that older patients had lesser risk of getting dengue infection as compared to younger adults aged 16–30, and patients living in peri-urban districts were less likely to suffer of dengue fever than patients living in central urban districts (OR = 0.31; 95% CI 0.13–0.75). This study could not find any association with occupation, water storage habit, knowledge, attitude, or practice on dengue prevention. Conclusions All patients had a relatively low level of knowledge and practice on dengue prevention and control. However, the attitude of the participants was good. We found that age group and living district were the risk factors correlated with the dengue status. Communication programs on raising dengue awareness should be repeated all year round and target particular groups of adolescents, younger adults, landlords and migrants from other provinces to improve their knowledge and encourage them to implement preventive measures against dengue fever.

REVIEW ARTICLE ABOUT PERINATALAND NEONATAL MANAGEMENT FOR THE PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF THE 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS INFECTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 54-57
Author(s):  
Isra Khalil Mohammed Ali Saeed ◽  
Maha Hussein Mohammed Hamza ◽  
Hiba Hussein Ibrahim ◽  
Esmehan Elkheir Babeker ◽  
Ibrahim Ismail M.Abu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care Units ◽  
Community Physician ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Who Guideline ◽  
Immature Immune System

An epidemic of new coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged in China since December 2019. WHO declared it as a pandemic on March 2020 as it has spread worldwide. Several cases among neonate were observed with rst reported 36 hours after birth. Due to the possibility of the infection and the immature immune system of the neonate there should be preventive and control measures at Neonatal Intensive Care Units. According to WHO guideline and other published articles in COVID-19 in infants and neonate a technical working group including community physician and Pediatricians has put measures for clinical management, prevention and control of COVID-19 in neonates.

scholarly journals A Clinical Investigation about Horizontal Heterophoria Among Newly Diagnosed Myopia Juveniles in Nanchong District of China

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Li Yan ◽  
Long Li ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Peng Guan Zeng ◽  
Chun Yun Zou
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Statistical Difference ◽  
Clinical Investigation ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
School Students ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: To establish the prevalence and distribution of heterophoria in low myopia juveniles and and provide evidence of myopia prevention and treatment. Methods: Near and distant heterophoria were administered to the patients who were diagnosed of low myopia at their first visit in clinic. Tthe Von Graefe method was performed to test near, distant horizontal heterophoria types and degrees. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS17.0 software. Results: A total of 150 students were participated in this study. Distant and near phoria was detected in 92.67% and 96.00% of the students respectively. exophoria was more common than esophoria(diantant:79.33% vs 13.33%; near:86.67% vs 9.33%, P<0.05), and the mean deviation of diantant and near heterophoria was -1.97△ and -3.91△. There was a statistical difference between the near and distant heterophoria (P<0.05). Conclusions: Most myopia juveniles have different extents of exophoria. Due to the high prevalence of heterophoria in myopia, in the process of refraction, attention should be paid to the examination of binocular visual function parameters such as heterophoria, which is conducive to the issuance of suitable optical correction prescriptions and the reasonable measures for myopia prevention and control. Keywords: Heterophoria, myopia, juvenile school students

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