scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Imported Infections

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177011 on October 22, 2020 (384 days from the first case), and 17129367 cases would be reported until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021), with a total attack rate of 63.66%. These results revealed that the interventions implemented in Jilin Province had reduced more than 99.99% cases.Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had great effectiveness.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data ( R 2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The R eff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Epstein-Barr Virus Versus Novel Coronavirus-Induced Hemophagocytic Lymphohistocytosis: The Uncharted Waters

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 232470962095010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawan Amir ◽  
Asim Kichloo ◽  
Jagmeet Singh ◽  
Ravinder Bhanot ◽  
Michael Aljadah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Infections ◽  
Epstein Barr Virus ◽  
Genetic Mutations ◽  
High Grade ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Barr Virus ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epstein Barr ◽  
Virus Versus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Hemophagocytic lymphohistocytosis (HLH) is a hyperinflammatory syndrome characterized by fever, hepatosplenomegaly, and pancytopenia. It may be associated with genetic mutations or viral/bacterial infections, most commonly Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus. As for the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019), the cytokine storm it triggers can theoretically lead to syndromes similar to HLH. In this article, we report a case of a 28-year-old female who presented with high-grade fevers, found to have both SARS-CoV-2 and EBV infections, and eventually began to show signs of early HLH. To our knowledge, this is the first case reported in literature that raises the possibility of SARS-CoV-2–related HLH development.

scholarly journals Web Application for Statistical Tracking and Predicting the Evolution of Active Cases with the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
Iulia Clitan ◽  
◽  
Adela Puscasiu ◽  
Vlad Muresan ◽  
Mihaela Ligia Unguresan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Novel ◽  
End User ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since February 2020, when the first case of infection with SARS COV-2 virus appeared in Romania, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an ascending allure, reaching in September 2020 a second wave of infections as expected. In order to understand the evolution and spread of this disease over time and space, more and more research is focused on obtaining mathematical models that are able to predict the evolution of active cases based on different scenarios and taking into account the numerous inputs that influence the spread of this infection. This paper presents a web responsive application that allows the end user to analyze the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, graphically, and that incorporates, unlike other COVID-19 statistical applications, a prediction of active cases evolution. The prediction is based on a neural network mathematical model, described from the architectural point of view.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

scholarly journals The early scientific literature response to the novel Coronavirus outbreak: who published what?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Gori ◽  
Erik Boetto ◽  
Maria Pia Fantini
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Emerging Pathogens ◽  
Pubmed Database ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

AbstractIntroductionRecent events highlight how emerging and re-emerging pathogens are becoming global challenges for public health. In December 2019, a novel coronavirus has emerged. This has suddenly turned out into global health concern.ObjectivesAim of this research is to focus on the bibliometric aspects in order to measure what is published in the first 30-days of a global epidemic outbreakMethodsWe searched PubMed database in order to find all relevant studies in the first 30-days from the first publication.ResultsFrom the initial 442 identified articles, 234 were read in-extenso. The majority of papers come from China, UK and USA. 63.7% of the papers were commentaries, editorials and reported data and only 17.5% of the sources used data directly collected on the field. Topics mainly addressed were “epidemiology”, “preparedness” and “generic discussion”. NNR showed a reduction for both the objectives assessed from January to February.Conclusions“Diagnosis” and effective preventive and therapeutic measures were the fields in which more research is still needed. The vast majority of scientific literature in the first 30-days of an epidemic outbreak is based on reported data rather than primary data. Nevertheless, the scientific statements and public health decisions rely on these data.Strengths of our studyThis is the first bibliometric research in Pubmed Database on the first 30 days of publications regarding the novel Coronavirus (SARS-nCoV-2) outbreak of 2019.The vast majority of publication in the first 30-days of an epidemic outbreak are reported data or comments, and only a small fraction of the papers have directly collected data.Limitations of our studyOur research is only PubMed based. It ill be auspicable to consult more than one relevant database in future papers.In addition, we excluded non-English publications leading to a potential bias due to the fact that the outbreak started in China.

scholarly journals The Life of a Simulation Center in the Era of the Novel Coronavirus Infection Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-129
Author(s):  
S. V. Khodus ◽  
V. S. Oleksik
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Training ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Test Task ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Simulation Scenario ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Simulation Center

A study was carried out among 76 students who took part in the Olympiad contests in practical medical skills in an innovative distance format. The data obtained testify to the effectiveness of distance simulation training, the assessment of which was carried out by students answering test questions before and after passing the test task, as well as by assessing the students' actions during the remote passage of the simulation scenario by experts.

scholarly journals Nepal’s Response to Contain COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rano Mal Piryani ◽  
Suneel Piryani ◽  
Jay Narayan Shah
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Status ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Nepal is a landlocked country bordering two most populous countries, India and China. Nepal shares open border with India from three sides, east, south and west. And, in north with China, where the novel coronavirus infection (CVOVID-19) began in late December 2019. The first confirmed imported case in Nepal was reported in 2nd week of January 2020. The initial response of Nepal to COVID-19 were comparably slow but country geared efforts after it was declared a ‘global pandemic’ by WHO on 11 March, 2020. Government of Nepal’s steps from 18 March, 2020 led to partial lock down and countrywide lockdown imposed on 24 March, 2020. Government devised comprehensive plan on 27 March, 2020 for quarantine for peoples who arrived in Nepal from COVID-19 affected countries. This article covers summary of global status, South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) status, and Nepal’s response to contain COVID-19 infection discussed under three headings: Steps taken before and after WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic and lab services regarding detection of COVID-19. Nepal has documented five confirmed cases of COVID-19 till the end of March 2020, first in second week of 15 January, 2020 and 2nd case 8-weeks thereafter and 3rd case two days later, 4th on 27 March and 5th on 28 March. Four more cases detected during first week of April. Non-Pharmacological interventions like social distancing and excellent personal habits are widely practiced. Country has to enhance testing and strengthen tracing, isolation and quarantine mechanism and care of COVID-19 patients as Nepal is in risk zone because of comparably weak health system and porous borders with India. The time will tell regarding further outbreak and how it will be tackled.Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; Nepal; pandemic; response

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