scholarly journals Predicting epidemics using search engine data: a comparative study on measles in the largest countries of Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loukas Samaras ◽  
Miguel-Angel Sicilia ◽  
Elena García-Barriocanal
Keyword(s):  
Competent Authority ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The One ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Official Data

Abstract Background In recent years new forms of syndromic surveillance that use data from the Internet have been proposed. These have been developed to assist the early prediction of epidemics in various cases and diseases. It has been found that these systems are accurate in monitoring and predicting outbreaks before these are observed in population and, therefore, they can be used as a complement to other methods. In this research, our aim is to examine a highly infectious disease, measles, as there is no extensive literature on forecasting measles using Internet data, Methods This research has been conducted with official data on measles for 5 years (2013–2018) from the competent authority of the European Union (European Center of Disease and Prevention - ECDC) and data obtained from Google Trends by using scripts coded in Python. We compared regression models forecasting the development of measles in the five countries. Results Results show that measles can be estimated and predicted through Google Trends in terms of time, volume and the overall spread. The combined results reveal a strong relationship of measles cases with the predicted cases (correlation coefficient R= 0.779 in two-tailed significance p< 0.01). The mean standard error was relatively low 45.2 (12.19%) for the combined results. However, major differences and deviations were observed for countries with a relatively low impact of measles, such as the United Kingdom and Spain. For these countries, alternative models were tested in an attempt to improve the results. Conclusions The estimation of measles cases from Google Trends produces acceptable results and can help predict outbreaks in a robust and sound manner, at least 2 months in advance. Python scripts can be used individually or within the framework of an integrated Internet surveillance system for tracking epidemics as the one addressed here.

Square Pegs and Round Holes (Continued): Financial Market Surveillance Authorities and Internal Market Association

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 32-59
Author(s):  
GEORGES S BAUR
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Internal Market ◽  
Trade Association ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
European Free Trade Association ◽  
The One

AbstractAfter the financial crisis of 2008, the European Union (‘EU’) not only increased its substantial legislation regarding financial services, but also built up a strong and unified system of financial market supervision. In particular, central surveillance authorities were created. These were given far-reaching competences with regard to substituting dysfunctional national authorities or players in the financial services sector. The three European Economic Area (‘EEA’) and European Free Trade Association (‘EFTA’) States—Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway—participate in the EU's internal market through their membership of the EEA. In order to continue participating on an equal footing in the internal market for financial services and to honour their duty to maintain homogeneity, the EEA EFTA States also had to incorporate the new institutional setup regarding financial services supervision. This obligation, however, in particular relating to certain intrusive powers of the new surveillance authorities, collided with some constitutional reservations, above all of the two Nordic EEA EFTA States. This article will show how these conflicting aims could be merged into a system that on the one hand guarantees the unified overall approach needed for strengthened surveillance of the internal market for financial services, and on the other hand safeguards certain constitutional reservations of the EEA EFTA States. It also looks at how third countries that do not (fully) participate in the internal market, such as the United Kingdom and Switzerland, are likely to be treated in this context by the EU.

What Kind of Ireland?

2021 ◽  
pp. xviii-20
Author(s):  
Niamh Hardiman ◽  
David M. Farrell ◽  
Eoin Carolan ◽  
John Coakley ◽  
Aidan Regan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
Electoral Mobilization ◽  
The One ◽  
The Eu

Modern Ireland is a relatively wealthy and politically stable democracy, but it bears the deep marks of its route to this point. This introductory chapter draws together some key themes that run through this volume and profiles the core contributions of each of its chapters. The overall story is one of contradictory influences. The political institutions of the state, notwithstanding much innovation over time, retain a bias toward a remarkably strong executive. The long-standing weaknesses of social democratic electoral mobilization both reflect and reinforce a conservative and market-oriented tilt in policy priorities. The ideas that animate public discourse show a creative but sometimes problematic tension between republican and communitarian ideals on the one hand, and liberal ideas and values on the other. Ireland has assumed a confident role on the world stage and especially within the European Union (EU), but relations with its nearest neighbour, the United Kingdom, can often be problematic, not least because of the complexity of the politics of Northern Ireland. And while on many measures Ireland is among the wealthiest of the EU member states, this is not the lived reality for a great many of its citizens, and the nuances of why this is so need to be carefully assessed. Overall, this introductory chapter offers an overview of the whole Handbook while also making an original contribution in its own right.

The changing landscape of local authority commissioning

2020 ◽  
pp. 177-196
Author(s):  
Dave Ayre
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Health And Social Care ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter assesses the history of the relationship between public and private sectors and the extent to which the political and regulatory environment of governments and institutions such as the European Union (EU) can help or hinder the efforts of public bodies in seeking to deliver services that determine the health and quality of life for communities. The relationship of public and private sectors in the United Kingdom (UK) and the commissioning, procurement, and development of public–private partnerships is driven by the prevailing political and economic environment. However, rigorous academic research on the benefits of partnering to organisations, societies and between countries is limited. Evidence is needed to fill the policy vacuum. A bolder approach is necessary to work with public and private sectors to develop and implement successful partnering alternatives to the outsourcing of public services. The growing catalogue of outsourcing failures in construction, probation, rail franchising, health, and social care is creating an appetite for change, and the exit of the UK from the EU provides the opportunity.

Parody—Nature and Definition

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Sabine Jacques
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Copyright Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Arts ◽  
History Of ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter provides an overview of the nature and definition of parody in the context of copyright law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has introduced two requirements that must be satisfied before a work may be considered a ‘parody’: firstly, it must ‘evoke an existing work while being noticeably different from it’, and secondly, it must ‘constitute an expression of humour or mockery’. The chapter first traces the origin and history of parody in the arts, including music, before discussing the relationship of parody with concepts such as satire, caricature, and pastiche. It then examines why a parody exception has been considered necessary in copyright law. The chapter goes on to analyse the legal evolution of parody in France, Australia, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom, showing that the existing international human rights framework may influence the definition of parody in intellectual property law.

Brexit: Who is afraid of group attachment? Part I. Europe: What Europe?

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 234-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
British Empire ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Group Project ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Group Attachment ◽  
Ambivalent Relationship ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
English Nationalism ◽  
The Eu

This article tries to make sense of Brexit, or otherwise, from a group attachment perspective. It provides a historical analysis of the fluctuating and highly ambivalent relationship of the United Kingdom (UK) with the European Union (EU), so far the most ambitious supranational and transnational group project in the world. But the EU has failed to keep up with some of its founding principles of openness, solidarity and compassion, in the handling of immigration—which has been the most determinant factor in the Brexit vote of June 2016, against a background of financial and migratory crises, as well as unacceptable inequality, nostalgia of sovereign British Empire and rise of English nationalism. The article aims to engage the reader to explore with the author some of the complexity of Brexit thinking and feeling, in the context of a developing EU.

scholarly journals The politics of embedding and the right to remain in post-Brexit Britain

Ethnicities ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 146879682091341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiina Sotkasiira ◽  
Anna Gawlewicz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Union Membership ◽  
The Other ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right

The European Union membership referendum (i.e. the Brexit referendum) in the United Kingdom in 2016 triggered a process of introspection among non-British European Union citizens with respect to their right to remain in the United Kingdom, including their right to entry, permanent residence, and access to work and social welfare. Drawing on interview data collected from 42 European Union nationals, namely Finnish and Polish migrants living in Scotland, we explore how European Union migrants’ decision-making and strategies for extending their stay in the United Kingdom, or returning to their country of origin, are shaped by and, in turn, shape their belonging and ties to their current place of residence and across state borders. In particular, we draw on the concept of embedding, which is used in migration studies to explain migration trajectories and decision-making. Our key argument is that more attention needs to be paid to the socio-political context within which migrants negotiate their embedding. To this end, we employ the term ‘politics of embedding’ to highlight the ways in which the embedding of non-British European Union citizens has been politicized and hierarchically structured in the United Kingdom after the Brexit referendum. By illustrating how the context of Brexit has changed how people evaluate their social and other attachments, and how their embedding is differentiated into ‘ties that bind’ and ‘ties that count’, we contribute to the emerging work on migration and Brexit, and specifically to the debate on how the politicization of migration shapes the sense of security on the one hand, and belonging, on the other.

scholarly journals Conditions for Initiating the Procedure of Poland’s Withdrawal from the European Union

2020 ◽  
pp. 215-226
Author(s):  
Cezary Trosiak
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
The One ◽  
Polish Government

Polexit is a concept that emerged in the political science discourse when the United Kingdom held a referendum on its continued membership of the European Union on June 26, 2016. The article analyzes the reasons which facilitate a discussion on the withdrawal of Poland from the European Union. On the one hand, this results from disputes on the direction of the evolution of the European project between ‘old’ and ‘new’ member states. On the other, its intensity is affected by the dynamics of the dispute between the Polish government and the European Commission on the state of the rule of law in Poland. For supporters of a change in relations between European institutions and member states, the European parliamentary elections offered an opportunity of starting a discussion on the change of treaties. However, due to the fact that proponents of treaty changes failed to win the appropriate number of seats, the vision of an EU of ‘two speeds’ is becoming realistic. This may mark the beginning of a sequence of events concluded with a referendum on the withdrawal of Poland from the European Union.

scholarly journals Tracking COVID-19 in Europe: Infodemiology Approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amaryllis Mavragani
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Web Based ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Official Data

BACKGROUND Infodemiology (ie, information epidemiology) uses web-based data to inform public health and policy. Infodemiology metrics have been widely and successfully used to assess and forecast epidemics and outbreaks. OBJECTIVE In light of the recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic that started in Wuhan, China in 2019, online search traffic data from Google are used to track the spread of the new coronavirus disease in Europe. METHODS Time series from Google Trends from January to March 2020 on the Topic (Virus) of “Coronavirus” were retrieved and correlated with official data on COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide and in the European countries that have been affected the most: Italy (at national and regional level), Spain, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. RESULTS Statistically significant correlations are observed between online interest and COVID-19 cases and deaths. Furthermore, a critical point, after which the Pearson correlation coefficient starts declining (even if it is still statistically significant) was identified, indicating that this method is most efficient in regions or countries that have not yet peaked in COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSIONS In the past, infodemiology metrics in general and data from Google Trends in particular have been shown to be useful in tracking and forecasting outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics as, for example, in the cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome, Ebola, measles, and Zika. With the COVID-19 pandemic still in the beginning stages, it is essential to explore and combine new methods of disease surveillance to assist with the preparedness of health care systems at the regional level.

scholarly journals Tracking COVID-19 in Europe: Infodemiology Approach

10.2196/18941 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e18941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amaryllis Mavragani
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Web Based ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Official Data

Background Infodemiology (ie, information epidemiology) uses web-based data to inform public health and policy. Infodemiology metrics have been widely and successfully used to assess and forecast epidemics and outbreaks. Objective In light of the recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic that started in Wuhan, China in 2019, online search traffic data from Google are used to track the spread of the new coronavirus disease in Europe. Methods Time series from Google Trends from January to March 2020 on the Topic (Virus) of “Coronavirus” were retrieved and correlated with official data on COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide and in the European countries that have been affected the most: Italy (at national and regional level), Spain, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Results Statistically significant correlations are observed between online interest and COVID-19 cases and deaths. Furthermore, a critical point, after which the Pearson correlation coefficient starts declining (even if it is still statistically significant) was identified, indicating that this method is most efficient in regions or countries that have not yet peaked in COVID-19 cases. Conclusions In the past, infodemiology metrics in general and data from Google Trends in particular have been shown to be useful in tracking and forecasting outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics as, for example, in the cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome, Ebola, measles, and Zika. With the COVID-19 pandemic still in the beginning stages, it is essential to explore and combine new methods of disease surveillance to assist with the preparedness of health care systems at the regional level.

New Bio-Scientific Interpretations of the Eco-Economic Zootehnization of the Romanian Performing Agriculture

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-43
Author(s):  
Amalia-Gianina Străteanu ◽  
Simona Nicoleta Stan
Keyword(s):  
Milk Powder ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Productive Potential ◽  
The One ◽  
Scientific Arguments ◽  
Scientific Argument

Abstract It is known that in all Western European countries, during the 20th century was initiated, developed, applied and consolidated the bio-scientific principle of agriculture zootehnization, so this trend continues in the first two decades of the 21st century. Based of the official data of EUROSTAT, this article presents the concrete situation of the dynamics of the two main livestock productions, respectively milk and meat, using annual data, namely those published in 2016 and 2017. The authors use new bio-scientific arguments to analyze and interpret the concept of agriculture zootehnization, with unprecedented and documented ighlighting of polyvalent and synergistic aspects, between the effective zootechnical practice of the performing agriculture (on the one hand) and the bioeconomic management of animal husbandry (on the other hand). Thus, the authors report the fact that at 21 611 thousand head dairy cows in the EU (excluding the United Kingdom), is collected a production of 138 511 thousand tonnes milk, with a average milk production of 6 409.29 kg / head, of which in the milk industry (Table 3. with those 14 selected countries), the year is obtained, in thousand tons, 30 087 dairy products (milk for consumption, milk powder, butter and cheese). In the same sense, the authors present and analyze the dynamics of meat production from the farm livestock and they find that the annual values for carcass weight in thousands tons are for bovine 6,885, for pigs 22,522 and for sheep 423, which highlights a real zootechnical, genetic and bio-productive potential. We underline that in two synthesis tables, the authors present the numerical situation of the relations between the European Union and Romania, so in a professional way, through a new bio-scientific argument it is justifiably demonstrated that Romania needs to develop inter-, multi-and transdisciplinary and to apply a real country project for the Carpatho-Danubiano-Pontic autochthon space in its European context.

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