scholarly journals Changes in the dollar value of per capita alcohol, essential, and non-essential retail sales in Canada during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel T. Myran ◽  
Brendan T. Smith ◽  
Nathan Cantor ◽  
Lennon Li ◽  
Sudipta Saha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Alcohol Use ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Statistics Canada ◽  
Alcohol Sales

Abstract Background Multiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors. Methods We obtained monthly retail sales data by industry from Statistics Canada, for the six largest provinces in Canada (containing 93% of the national population), between January 2010 and November 2020, representing time before and 9 months after the start of the pandemic in Canada. We used an interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic impacts on the dollar value of monthly per capita (per individuals 15+ years) alcohol, essential and non-essential retail sales. We adjusted our analyses for pre-pandemic sales trends, inflation, seasonality and changing population demographics over time. Results During the first 9 months of the pandemic, the values of per capita alcohol, essential and non-essential sales were, respectively, 13.2% higher, 3.6% higher and 13.1% lower than the average values during the same period in the prior 3 years. Interrupted time series models showed significant level change for the value of monthly per capita alcohol sales (+$4.86, 95% CIs: 2.88, 6.83), essential sales (−$59.80, 95% CIs: − 78.47, − 41.03) and non-essential sales (−$308.70, 95% CIs: − $326.60, − 290.79) during the pandemic. Alcohol sales were consistently elevated during the pandemic, and the pre- and post-pandemic slopes were comparable. In contrast, essential and non-essential retail sales declined in the early months of the pandemic before returning to regular spending levels. Conclusion During the first 9 months of the pandemic, per capita alcohol sales were moderately elevated in Canada. In contrast, non-essential sales were lower than prior years, driven by large decreases during the initial months of the pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic was associated with increased population-level alcohol consumption, which may lead to increased alcohol-related harms. Ongoing research is needed to examine how factors, including pandemic-related stressors and specific alcohol sales-related policies, may have influenced changes in alcohol use and harms.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on population level interest in Skincare: Evidence from a google trends-based Infodemiology study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Symum ◽  
Md. F. Islam ◽  
Habsa K. Hiya ◽  
Kh M. Ali Sagor
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Relative Search Volume ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented disruption of daily life including the pattern of skin related treatments in healthcare settings by issuing stay-at-home orders and newly coronaphobia around the world.ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate whether there are any significant changes in population interest for skincare during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsFor the skincare, weekly RSV data were extracted for worldwide and 23 counties between August 1, 2016, and August 31, 2020. Interrupted time-series analysis was conducted as the quasi-experimental approach to evaluate the longitudinal effects of COVID-19 skincare related search queries. For each country, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model relative search volume (RSV) time series and then testing multiple periods simultaneously to examine the magnitude of the interruption. Multivariate linear regression was used to estimate the correlation between countries’ relative changes in RSV with COVID-19 confirmed cases/ per 10000 patients and lockdown measures.ResultsOut of 23 included countries in our study, 17 showed significantly increased (p<0.01) RSVs during the lockdown period compared with the ARIMA forecasted data. The highest percentage of increments occurs in May and June 2020 in most countries. There was also a significant correlation between lockdown measures and the number of COVID-19 cases with relatives changes in population interests for skincare.ConclusionUnderstanding the trend and changes in skincare public interest during COVID-19 may assist health authorities to promote accessible educational information and preventive initiatives regarding skin problems.

The Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Burn Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin E Dvorak ◽  
Erica L W Lester ◽  
Patrick J Maluso ◽  
Leah C Tatebe ◽  
Faran Bokhari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Low Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Affordable Care Act ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Home Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Discharge ◽  
The Affordable Care Act ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Uninsured and low socioeconomic status patients who suffer burn injuries have disproportionately worse morbidity and mortality. The Affordable Care Act was signed into law with the goal of increasing access to insurance, with Medicaid expansion in January 2014 having the largest impact. To analyze the population-level impact of the Affordable Care Act on burn outcomes, and investigate its impact on identified at-risk subgroups, a retrospective time series of patients was created using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample database between 2011 and 2016. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to examine mortality, length of stay, and the probabilities of discharge home, home with home health, and to another facility before and after January 2014. There were no changes in burn mortality detected. There was a statistically significant reduction in the probability of being discharged home (−0.000967, P &lt; .01; 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.0015379 to −0.0003962) or discharged home with home health (−0.000709, P &lt; .01; 95% CI −0.00110 to 0.000317) after 2014. There was an increase in the probability of being discharged to another facility (0.00108, P = .01; 95% CI 0.000282–0.00188). While the enactment of the major provisions of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 was not associated with a change in mortality for burn patients, it was associated with more patients being discharged to a facility: This may represent a significant improvement in access to care and rehabilitation. Future studies will assess the societal and economic impact of improved access to post-discharge facilities and rehabilitation.

The relationship between joining a US free trade agreement and processed food sales, 2002–2016: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 1609-1617
Author(s):  
Krycia Cowling ◽  
Elizabeth A Stuart ◽  
Roni A Neff ◽  
Jon Vernick ◽  
Daniel Magraw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
National Income ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Processed Foods ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
World Region ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Per Capita

AbstractObjective:To examine changes in sales of highly processed foods, including infant formulas, in countries joining free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US.Design:Annual country-level data for food and beverage sales come from Euromonitor International. Analyses are conducted in a comparative interrupted time-series (CITS) framework using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for key confounders: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, percent of the population living in urban areas and female labor force participation rate. Memberships in other FTAs and investment treaties are also explored as possible confounders.Setting:Changes are assessed between 2002 and 2016.Participants:Ten countries joining US FTAs are compared with eleven countries without US FTAs in force; countries are matched on national income level, world region and World Trade Organization membership.Results:After countries join a US FTA, sales are estimated to increase by: 0·89 (95 % CI 0·16, 1·6; P = 0·016) kg per capita per annum for ultra-processed products, 0·81 (95 % CI 0·47, 1·1; P < 0·001) kg per capita per annum for processed culinary ingredients and 0·17 (95 % CI 0·052, 0·29; P = 0·005) kg per capita under age 5 per annum for baby food. No significant change is estimated for minimally processed foods. In statistical models, large unexplained variations in country-specific trends suggest additional unmeasured country-level factors also impact sales trends following entry into US FTAs.Conclusions:These findings strongly support the conclusion that joining US FTAs can contribute to detrimental changes in national dietary consumption that increase population risk of non-communicable diseases.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Population-Level Interest in Skincare: Evidence from a Google Trends

2021 ◽  
pp. 147-160
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
The World

COVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented disruption of daily life including the pattern of skincare in healthcare settings by issuing stay-at-home orders around the world. There has been limited information about trends of skincare-related public interest during CVOID-19 and whether any substantial disruption in population-level behavior. The objective of this study is to evaluate the change in skincare-related population interest around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic time. Weekly RSV data were extracted worldwide and in 25 counties between August 1, 2016, and August 31, 2020. Interrupted time-series analysis was conducted as the quasi-experimental approach to evaluate the longitudinal effects of COVID-19 skincare-related search queries. For each country, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model relative search volume (RSV) time series and then testing multiple periods simultaneously to examine the magnitude of the interruption. Multivariate linear regression was used to estimate the correlation between the relative changes in RSV with COVID-19 confirmed cases/ per million population and lockdown measures. Of 25 included countries in our study, 17 showed significantly increased (p<0.01) RSVs during the lockdown period compared with ARIMA forecasted data. The highest percentage of increments occurs in May and June in most countries. There was also a significant correlation between lockdown measures and the number of COVID-19 cases with relative changes in population interests for skincare. Understanding the trend and changes in skincare public interest during COVID-19 may assist health authorities to promote accessible educational information and preventive initiatives regarding skin problems.

scholarly journals Impact of the Global Budget Payment System on Expenditure of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Shanghai, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanshen Dou ◽  
Yilin Zhang ◽  
Yunzhen He ◽  
Qiaoyun Huang ◽  
Yingfeng Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Payment System ◽  
Medical Expenditure ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Global Budget ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Chinese Yuan

Since few studies evaluated the impact of the global budget payment system (GBPS) over time, and by expenditure type, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of the GBPS on expenditure of inpatients, and explores how hospitals curb the expenditure in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Shanghai. We built a time series model with the monthly expenditure of CVDs from 2009 to 2012. We evaluated the instant impact and trends impact of the GBPS and analyzed results based on medical expenditure types (e.g., drug, examination, cure, unclassified items), discharge number, and expenditure per capita. We found GBPS instantly dropped the medical expenditure by Chinese Yuan (CNY) 55.71 million (p < 0.001), and decreased the monthly increasing trend by CNY 4.23 million (p = 0.011). The discharge number had 10.4% instant reduction and 225.55 monthly decrease (p = 0.021) while the expenditure per capita experienced fewer changes. Moreover, the expenditure of drug and cure had an instant reduction of CNY 28.31 million and 16.28 million (p < 0.001). In conclusion, we considered the GBPS is an effective solution to control the expenditure of CVDs by decreasing the discharge number, and a focus on the drug and cure expenditures lead to greater spend reduction than other types of expenditures.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on outpatient antibiotic prescriptions in Ontario, Canada; An interrupted time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taito Kitano ◽  
Kevin A Brown ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Derek R MacFadden ◽  
Bradley J Langford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has potentially impacted outpatient antibiotic prescribing. Investigating this impact may identify stewardship opportunities in the ongoing COVID-19 period and beyond. Methods We conducted an interrupted time series analysis on outpatient antibiotic prescriptions and antibiotic prescriptions/patient visits in Ontario, Canada between January 2017 and December 2020 to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-level antibiotic prescribing by prescriber’s specialty, patient demographics and conditions. Results In the evaluated COVID-19 period (March-December 2020), there was a 31.2% [95% CI: 27.0%–35.1%] relative reduction in total antibiotic prescriptions. Total outpatient antibiotic prescriptions decreased during the COVID-19 period by 37.1% [32.5%–41.3%] among family physicians, 30.7% [25.8%–35.2%] among sub-specialist physicians, 12.1% [4.4%–19.2%] among dentists and 25.7% [21.4%–29.8%] among other prescribers. Antibiotics indicated for respiratory infections decreased by 43.7% [38.4–48.6%]. Total patient visits and visits for respiratory infections decreased by 10.7% [5.4%–15.6%] and 49.9% [43.1%%–55.9%]). Total antibiotic prescriptions/1,000 visits decreased by 27.5% [21.5%–33.0%], while antibiotics indicated for respiratory infections/1,000 visits with respiratory infections only decreased by 6.8% [2.7%–10.8%]. Conclusion The reduction in outpatient antibiotic prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic was driven by less antibiotic prescribing for respiratory indications and largely explained by decreased visits for respiratory infections.

scholarly journals Change in health spending after implementation of a health transformation plan in Iran: an interrupted time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Esmaeili ◽  
Samad Rouhani ◽  
Jamshid Yazdani Charati ◽  
Masoud Khandehroo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Hospitalization Rate ◽  
Inpatient Cost ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Mazandaran Province ◽  
North Of Iran ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Health transformation plan (HTP) implemented in Iran since 2014 to improve accessibility and financial protection of patients. This study aimed to assess the impact of HTP on health spending in Iran. Methods This was a quasi-experimental design using Interrupted Time Series. All registered impatient records in Iran health insurance organization (IHIO) for the population of Mazandaran province (1,628,919 population in 2011), north of Iran from March 2010 to February 2019 were included. Data for three depended variables: hospitalization rate, average inpatient cost and inpatient expenditure per capita was extracted in 96 monthly observations. Segmented regression analysis was done in R version 3.6.1. Results Hospitalization rate in 2010 was 6.6 in 1000 people and its level change was 0/799 immediately after HTP (P < 001). Post-reform level and trend changes for monthly average inpatient cost of registered admissions in IHIO were also significant (P < 001). IHIO inpatient expenditure per capita for 1,628,919 population in Mazandaran province was 24,436 Rials in 2011 and increased significantly immediately following HTP as 34,459 Rials (P < 001). Conclusions Three important components of health spending including hospitalization rate, average inpatient cost and inpatient expenditure per capita were increased dramatically after HTP. Cost containment strategies and strengthening the preventive care initiatives is required to control the escalating trends of inpatient expenditure in Iran.

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