scholarly journals Respiratory-related death in individuals with incident asthma and COPD: a competing risk analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia V. Gayle ◽  
Cosetta Minelli ◽  
Jennifer K. Quint
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Excess Risk ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Models

Abstract Background Distinguishing between mortality attributed to respiratory causes and other causes among people with asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) is important. This study used electronic health records in England to estimate excess risk of death from respiratory-related causes after accounting for other causes of death. Methods We used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data to identify adults with asthma and COPD from 2005 to 2015. Causes of death were ascertained using death certificates. Hazard ratios (HR) and excess risk of death were estimated using Fine-Gray competing risk models and adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index and socioeconomic status. Results 65,021 people with asthma and 45,649 with COPD in the CPRD dataset were frequency matched 5:1 with people without the disease on age, sex and general practice. Only 14 in 100,000 people with asthma are predicted to experience a respiratory-related death up to 10 years post-diagnosis, whereas in COPD this is 98 in 100,000. Asthma is associated with an 0.01% excess incidence of respiratory related mortality whereas COPD is associated with an 0.07% excess. Among people with asthma-COPD overlap (N = 22,145) we observed an increased risk of respiratory-related death compared to those with asthma alone (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.21–1.40) but not COPD alone (HR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.83–0.94). Conclusions Asthma and COPD are associated with an increased risk of respiratory-related death after accounting for other causes; however, diagnosis of COPD carries a much higher probability. ACO is associated with a lower risk compared to COPD alone but higher risk compared to asthma alone.

scholarly journals Tuberculosis Mortality by Occupation in South Africa, 2011–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 2756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahira Kootbodien ◽  
Kerry Wilson ◽  
Nonhlanhla Tlotleng ◽  
Vusi Ntlebi ◽  
Felix Made ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

Work-related tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health concern in low- and middle-income countries. The use of vital registration data for monitoring TB deaths by occupation has been unexplored in South Africa. Using underlying cause of death and occupation data for 2011 to 2015 from Statistics South Africa, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for all persons of working age (15 to 64 years) by the direct method using the World Health Organization (WHO) standard population. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate mortality odds ratios (MORs) for occupation groups, adjusting for age, sex, year of death, province of death, and smoking status. Of the 221,058 deaths recorded with occupation data, 13% were due to TB. ASMR for TB mortality decreased from 165.9 to 88.8 per 100,000 population from 2011 to 2015. An increased risk of death by TB was observed among elementary occupations: agricultural labourers (MORadj = 3.58, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.96–4.32), cleaners (MORadj = 3.44, 95% CI 2.91–4.09), and refuse workers (MORadj = 3.41, 95% CI 2.88–4.03); among workers exposed to silica dust (MORadj = 3.37, 95% CI 2.83–4.02); and among skilled agricultural workers (MORadj = 3.31, 95% CI 2.65–4.19). High-risk TB occupations can be identified from mortality data. Therefore, TB prevention and treatment policies should be prioritised in these occupations.

scholarly journals Prior lymphopenia is associated with mortality in primary care pneumonia: a cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. bjgp20X713981
Author(s):  
Fergus W Hamilton ◽  
Rupert Payne ◽  
David T Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Lymphocyte Count ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: Lymphopenia (reduced lymphocyte count) during infections such as pneumonia is common and is associated with increased mortality. Little is known about the relationship between lymphocyte count prior to developing infections and mortality risk. Aim: To identify whether patients with lymphopenia who develop pneumonia have increased risk of death. Design and Setting: A cohort study in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked to national death records. This database is representative of the UK population, and is extracted from routine records. Methods: Patients aged >50 years with a pneumonia diagnosis were included. We measured the relationship between lymphocyte count and mortality, using a time-to-event (multivariable Cox regression) approach, adjusted for age, sex, social factors, and potential causes of lymphopenia. Our primary analysis used the most recent test prior to pneumonia. The primary outcome was 28 day, all-cause mortality. Results: 40,909 participants with pneumonia were included from 1998 until 2019, with 28,556 having had a lymphocyte test prior to pneumonia (median time between test and diagnosis 677 days). When lymphocyte count was categorised (0-1×109/L, 1-2×109/L, 2-3×109/L, >3×109/L, never tested), both 28-day and one-year mortality varied significantly: 14%, 9.2%, 6.5%, 6.1% and 25% respectively for 28-day mortality, and 41%, 29%, 22%, 20% and 52% for one-year mortality. In multivariable Cox regression, lower lymphocyte count was consistently associated with increased hazard of death. Conclusion: Lymphopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in primary care pneumonia. Even low-normal lymphopenia (1-2×109/L) is associated with an increase in short- and long-term mortality compared with higher counts.

scholarly journals Which Patients with Giant Cell Arteritis Will Develop Cardiovascular or Cerebrovascular Disease? A Clinical Practice Research Datalink Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 1085-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna C. Robson ◽  
Amit Kiran ◽  
Joe Maskell ◽  
Andrew Hutchings ◽  
Nigel Arden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Cerebrovascular Disease ◽  
Giant Cell Arteritis ◽  
Giant Cell ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk

Objective.To evaluate the risk of cerebrovascular disease and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA), and to identify predictors.Methods.The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink 1991–2010 was used for a parallel cohort study of 5827 patients with GCA and 37,090 age-, sex-, and location-matched controls. A multivariable competing risk model (non-cerebrovascular/CV-related death as the competing risk) determined the relative risk [subhazard ratio (SHR)] between patients with GCA compared with background controls for cerebrovascular disease, CVD, or either. Each cohort (GCA and controls) was then analyzed individually using the same multivariable model, with age and sex now present, to identify predictors of CVD or cerebrovascular disease.Results.Patients with GCA, compared with controls, had an increased risk SHR (95% CI) of cerebrovascular disease (1.45, 1.31–1.60), CVD (1.49, 1.37–1.62), or either (1.47, 1.37–1.57). In the GCA cohort, predictors of “cerebrovascular disease or CVD” included increasing age, > 80 years versus < 65 years (1.98, 1.62–2.42), male sex (1.20, 1.05–1.38), and socioeconomic status, most deprived quintile versus least deprived (1.34, 1.01–1.78). These predictors were also present within the non-GCA cohort.Conclusion.Patients with GCA are more likely to develop cerebrovascular disease or CVD than age-, sex-, and location-matched controls. In common with the non-GCA cohort, patients who are older, male, and from the most deprived compared with least deprived areas have a higher risk of cerebrovascular disease or CVD. Further work is needed to understand how this risk may be mediated by specific behavioral, social, and economic factors.

scholarly journals The impact of dementia and other comorbidities on increased risk of subsequent hip fracture following hip fracture in Australia: a competing risk approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara Harvey ◽  
Rebecca Mitchell ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
Brian Draper ◽  
Jacqueline Close
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Metastatic Cancer ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Second Hip Fracture ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT ObjectivesOlder people with hip fracture are at increased risk of subsequent hip fracture. This study evaluates the relative impact of dementia, osteoporosis and other comorbidities on the increased risk of sustaining a subsequent fall-related hip fracture within ten years of a fall-related hip fracture, accounting for the competing risk of death. ApproachLinked hospital and mortality data for all individuals aged 65 years and older admitted to a hospital in New South Wales, Australia, with a fall-related hip fracture over a ten year period between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2013 were analysed. Dementia, osteoporosis and comorbidities contributing to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were identified using up to 40 additional diagnosis codes recorded in the hospitalisation data and a 1 year lookback period. A competing risk approach was used to account for the high mortality inherent in this older population. Cause-specific hazard ratios (CSHRs) were calculated with age, sex and comorbidities included as covariates in the models. To account for the relatively long time frame of the study, dementia, osteoporosis and other CCI comorbidities were treated as time-dependent covariates. Results Of the 50,290 individuals who sustained a fall-related hip fracture during the study period, 7.6% (4,102) had a subsequent fall-related hip fracture. Compared to people without dementia, people with dementia were more likely to die within 30 days of initial fracture (12.6% vs 6.4%, p<0.0001) and to sustain a subsequent hip fracture (9.8% compared to 6.6%, p<0.0001). In the multivariate hazards regressions, people with dementia had a 2.5 fold (CSHR 2.48, 99.9%CI 2.38-2.58, p<0.0001) increased risk of death and two fold (CSHR 2.02, 99.9%CI 1.81-2.26, p<0.0001) increased risk of second hip fracture. Of the comorbidities, metastatic cancer (CSHR 3.48, 99.9%CI 3.12-3.88, p<0.0001) and severe liver disease (CSHR 3.24, 99.9%CI 2.62-4.01, p<0.0001) were most strongly associated with death. Renal disease (CSHR 1.53, 99.9%CI 1.24-1.88, p<0.0001), osteoporosis (CSHR 1.44, 99.9%CI 1.28-1.62, p<0.0001), congestive heart failure (CSHR 1.42, 99.9%CI 1.24-1.64, p<0.0001), and acute myocardial infarction (CSHR 1.22, 99.9%CI 1.03-1.44, p<0.0001) were associated with increased risk of subsequent hip fracture. Conclusions Hip fractures are costly injuries in terms of health care resources and the impact on the individual and their families. People with dementia are at twice the risk of sustaining a second hip fracture and death compared to people without dementia. Interventions including known effective treatments for osteoporosis as well as falls prevention should be targeted to this vulnerable population.

scholarly journals Increased Risk of Fatal Infections in Women Starting Peritoneal Dialysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 487-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Ros ◽  
Cesar Remón ◽  
Abdul Rashid Qureshi ◽  
Pedro Quiros ◽  
Bengt Lindholm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Kidney Transplantation ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cvd Mortality

Background and ObjectivesAlthough cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease, non-CVD causes account for more than 50% of total deaths. We previously showed that, compared with men, women starting dialysis—both hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis (PD)—have higher non-CVD mortality rates. Here, we evaluate sex-specific outcomes in a large cohort of incident PD patients.MethodsIncident de novo PD patients from the Andalusian SICATA Registry for 1999 – 2010, with follow-up until 31 December 2010 or up to 5 years, were investigated for fatal outcomes. Causes of death were extracted from medical records. The analysis used traditional and competing-risk Cox models for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in men and women, correcting in the competing-risk models for the events of kidney transplantation and transfer to hemodialysis.ResultsA total of 1458 patients (57% men; mean overall age: 55.3 ± 17.0 years) initiated PD in Andalusia during the study period. During follow-up, 350 deaths, 355 renal transplantation procedures, and 331 transfers to hemodialysis were recorded. Vascular disease and diabetic nephropathy were the most frequent causes of kidney failure in men; other causes were more common in women. In the traditional Cox model, both sexes showed a similar all-cause mortality risk [crude hazard ratio (HR): 0.90; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72 to 1.12]. However, with respect to specific causes of death, women showed a borderline lower risk of both CVD (crude HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.99) and non-CVD mortality from other than infection (crude HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.57 to 1.15). In contrast, the risk of death from infection was almost doubled in women compared with men (crude HR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.15 to 3.20), a finding that held true after multivariate adjustment for age, primary renal disease, period of inclusion, and initial PD modality (adjusted HR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.03 to 3.01). This result was confirmed even taking into consideration the competing events of kidney transplantation and transfer to hemodialysis.ConclusionsCompared with men starting PD, women starting PD are at higher risk of mortality from infection. More stringent screening measures and corrective efforts in women might be indicated.

Mortality disparities and deprivation among people with intellectual disabilities in England: 2000–2019

2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2021-216798
Author(s):  
Freya Tyrer ◽  
Richard Morriss ◽  
Reza Kiani ◽  
Satheesh K Gangadharan ◽  
Mark J Rutherford
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual Disability ◽  
General Population ◽  
Intellectual Disabilities ◽  
Differential Mortality ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
People With Intellectual Disabilities ◽  
Mortality Disparities

BackgroundThe effect of policy initiatives and deprivation on mortality disparities in people with intellectual disabilities is not clear.MethodsAn electronic health record observational study of linked primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the Office for National Statistics deaths data from 2000 to 2019 was undertaken. All-cause and cause-specific mortality for people with intellectual disabilities were calculated by gender and deprivation status (index of multiple deprivation quintile) using direct age-standardised mortality rates (all years) and ratios (SMR; 2000–2009 vs 2010–2019).ResultsAmong 1.0 million patients (n=33 844 with intellectual disability; n=980 586 general population without intellectual disability), differential mortality was consistently higher in people with intellectual disabilities and there was no evidence of attenuation over time. There was a dose–response relationship between all-cause mortality and lower deprivation quintile in the general population which was not observed in people with intellectual disabilities. Cause-specific SMR were consistent in both the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 calendar periods, with a threefold increased risk of death in both males and females with intellectual disabilities (SMR ranges: 2.91–3.51). Mortality was highest from epilepsy (SMR ranges: 22.90–52.74) and aspiration pneumonia (SMR ranges: 19.31–35.44). SMRs were disproportionately high for people with intellectual disabilities living in the least deprived areas.ConclusionsPeople with intellectual disabilities in England continue to experience significant mortality disparities and there is no evidence that the situation is improving. Deprivation indicators may not be effective for targeting vulnerable individuals.

scholarly journals AB0576 BONE EROSION IN PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS ASSOCIATED WITH PSORIASIS DURATION, SKIN, NAIL AND JOINT DISEASE SEVERITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1325.2-1326
Author(s):  
M. Chamurlieva ◽  
E. Loginova ◽  
T. Korotaeva ◽  
Y. Korsakova ◽  
E. Gubar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Psoriatic Arthritis ◽  
Disease Severity ◽  
Bone Erosion ◽  
Joint Disease ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Forest Plot ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Nail Disease

Background:Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is heterogeneous in its clinical presentation and disease course, but many patients (pts) develop a destructive form of arthritis. Psoriasis (PsO) precedes arthritis by an average of 7 years. [1]. Theory of transition from PsO to PsA has been proposed recently [2]. But association between skin disease severity and joint disease are still unclear.Objectives:to evaluate association between bone erosion, PsO duration, skin and nail disease severity in PsA pts based on data from clinical practice (RU-PsART cohort).Methods:737 (M/F=350/387) PsA pts fulfilling the CASPAR criteria were included. Mean age 47.4±12.7 years (yrs), PsA duration 55[17;120] mos., PsO duration 165[74.5;292] mos., mean DAPSA 23.3[14;36.9] mos., HAQ-DI - 0.98 [0.5;1.38], CRP - 7.4 [2.1;18] mg/l. All pts underwent standard clinical examination (tender joins count (TJC)/68, swelling joints count (SJC)/66, CRP (mg/l), DAPSA, dactylitis, enthesitis by LEI + Plantar Facia (PF), HAQ-DI. Mild disease was defined as body surface area (BSA)≤10%, moderate to severe as BSA>10%. The presence/absent of nail PsO was evaluated. X-ray of feet and hand were done in 622 out of 737 pts. The one-factor model of logistic regression was used to identify a group of features that are associated with achievement MDA. M±SD, Me [Q25; Q75], Min-Max, %, t-test, Pierson-χ2, Manna-Whitney tests, ORs with 95% CI were performed. All p<0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance.Results:PsO precedes of PsA by an average of 9.2 years. BSA≤10% was found in 615 out of 672 pts (91.5%), BSA>10% - in 57 out of 672 pts (8.5%). Nail PsO were seen in 230 out of 737 (31.2%). Bone erosion was found in 237 out of 622 of pts (38.1%). Among these pts nail PsO were seen in 67 out of 237 pts (28.3%). Enthesitis found in 236 out of 737 pts (42.1%), dactylitis – in 197 out 731 pts (27%), axial PsA – in 315 out of 731 pts (43.1%). Bone erosion significantly associated with PsO duration more than 5 yrs., skin and nail PsO severity, high PsA activity by DAPSA, axial manifestation and duration of PsA > 36 mos. (Figure 1).Figure 1Forest plot of factors associated with bone erosion in PsA pts.Conclusion:In our cohort the majority of PsA pts had mild PsO preceded PsA on average of 9.2 yrs. Bone erosion was found in 30% of PsA pts which associated with PsO duration, skin and nail disease severity as well as with PsA activity. Early diagnosis and therapeutic intervention within a “window of opportunity” are very important for improving outcomes and prevent structural damage in PsA.References:[1]Tillett W, et al. Interval between onset of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis comparing the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink with a hospital-based cohort. Rheumatol. 2017; 56, 2109–2113[2]Scher JU, et al. Preventing psoriatic arthritis: focusing on patients with psoriasis at increased risk of transition. Nat Rev Rheumatol. 2019;15(3):153-166. doi: 10.1038/s41584-019-0175-0. PMID: 30742092.Disclosure of Interests:None declared.

scholarly journals Paediatric rotavirus vaccination, coeliac disease and type 1 diabetes in children: a population-based cohort study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Inns ◽  
Kate M. Fleming ◽  
Miren Iturriza-Gomara ◽  
Daniel Hungerford
Keyword(s):  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Coeliac Disease ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccine ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccination ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background Rotavirus infection has been proposed as a risk factor for coeliac disease (CD) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). The UK introduced infant rotavirus vaccination in 2013. We have previously shown that rotavirus vaccination can have beneficial off-target effects on syndromes, such as hospitalised seizures. We therefore investigated whether rotavirus vaccination prevents CD and T1D in the UK. Methods A cohort study of children born between 2010 and 2015 was conducted using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Children were followed up from 6 months to 7 years old, with censoring for outcome, death or leaving the practice. CD was defined as diagnosis of CD or the prescription of gluten-free goods. T1D was defined as a T1D diagnosis. The exposure was rotavirus vaccination, defined as one or more doses. Mixed-effects Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Models were adjusted for potential confounders and included random intercepts for general practices. Results There were 880,629 children in the cohort (48.8% female). A total of 343,113 (39.0%) participants received rotavirus vaccine; among those born after the introduction of rotavirus vaccination, 93.4% were vaccinated. Study participants contributed 4,388,355 person-years, with median follow-up 5.66 person-years. There were 1657 CD cases, an incidence of 38.0 cases per 100,000 person-years. Compared with unvaccinated children, the adjusted HR for a CD was 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.28) for vaccinated children. Females had a 40% higher hazard than males. T1D was recorded for 733 participants, an incidence of 17.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. In adjusted analysis, rotavirus vaccination was not associated with risk of T1D (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.68–1.19). Conclusions Rotavirus vaccination has reduced diarrhoeal disease morbidity and mortality substantial since licencing in 2006. Our finding from this large cohort study did not provide evidence that rotavirus vaccination prevents CD or T1D, nor is it associated with increased risk, delivering further evidence of rotavirus vaccine safety.

Stage at presentation and oncologic outcomes for agent orange exposed and non-exposed United States veterans diagnosed with prostate cancer.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 259-259
Author(s):  
Alexander Tward ◽  
Jonathan David Tward
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
United States ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Initial Therapy ◽  
Agent Orange ◽  
Oncologic Outcomes ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

259 Background: Exposure of Vietnam War Veterans to the defoliant Agent Orange (AO) has been linked to increased tumor stage of Veterans diagnosed with prostate cancer. However, information on the effect of exposure to treatment outcomes is lacking. The goal of this study was to evaluate oncologic outcomes in Veterans based on AO exposure history, accounting for known prognostic covariates not previously studied. Methods: United States military Veterans diagnosed with prostate adenocarcinoma born between the years 1930-1956 were identified from a large professionally curated institutional database. Evaluable patients had to have known AO exposure status, age, NCCN risk group, Charlson comorbidity score, smoking status, and whether initial therapy was surgical, radiation, or systemic. Risk of death, metastasis, and progression stratified by the type of initial therapy received was analyzed using Cox regression. Results: There were 70 AO exposed and 561 non-exposed Veterans identified, with a median follow-up of 10.0 years. AO exposure Veterans (AOeV) were significantly younger (64.0 versus 65.7 years, p=0.013) at diagnosis and presented at more advanced stages (e.g. Stage 4: 14.3% versus 2.5%) than non-exposed Veterans (non-AOeV). There was no difference for overall survival (HR=0.86, p=0.576, metastasis-free survival (HR=1.5, p=0.212), or progression-free survival (HR=0.67, p 0.060) between AOeV versus non-AOeV in analyses stratified by treatment received accounting for other prognostic covariates. Cigarette smoking was associated with a 2- 3-fold increased risk of death over those who quit or never smoked. Conclusions: Although AOeV do present at younger age and higher clinical stages than non-AOeV, the oncologic outcomes after accounting for treatments received and other prognostic covariates are similar. The implication is that AOeV are more likely to be recommended multimodality or systemic therapies at presentation.

scholarly journals Development and validation of prediction models to estimate risk of primary total hip and knee replacements using data from the UK: two prospective open cohorts using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dahai Yu ◽  
Kelvin P Jordan ◽  
Kym I E Snell ◽  
Richard D Riley ◽  
John Bedson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Total Hip ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Uk

ObjectivesThe ability to efficiently and accurately predict future risk of primary total hip and knee replacement (THR/TKR) in earlier stages of osteoarthritis (OA) has potentially important applications. We aimed to develop and validate two models to estimate an individual’s risk of primary THR and TKR in patients newly presenting to primary care.MethodsWe identified two cohorts of patients aged ≥40 years newly consulting hip pain/OA and knee pain/OA in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Candidate predictors were identified by systematic review, novel hypothesis-free ‘Record-Wide Association Study’ with replication, and panel consensus. Cox proportional hazards models accounting for competing risk of death were applied to derive risk algorithms for THR and TKR. Internal–external cross-validation (IECV) was then applied over geographical regions to validate two models.Results45 predictors for THR and 53 for TKR were identified, reviewed and selected by the panel. 301 052 and 416 030 patients newly consulting between 1992 and 2015 were identified in the hip and knee cohorts, respectively (median follow-up 6 years). The resultant model C-statistics is 0.73 (0.72, 0.73) and 0.79 (0.78, 0.79) for THR (with 20 predictors) and TKR model (with 24 predictors), respectively. The IECV C-statistics ranged between 0.70–0.74 (THR model) and 0.76–0.82 (TKR model); the IECV calibration slope ranged between 0.93–1.07 (THR model) and 0.92–1.12 (TKR model).ConclusionsTwo prediction models with good discrimination and calibration that estimate individuals’ risk of THR and TKR have been developed and validated in large-scale, nationally representative data, and are readily automated in electronic patient records.

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