scholarly journals Downregulation of lncRNA-PVT1 participates in the development of progressive chronic kidney disease among patients with congestive heart failure

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingwei Chang ◽  
Chunmei Liu ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Jing Feng ◽  
Yulan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Background Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major cause of the development of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD), while the mechanism is still unknown. LncRNA PVT1 contributes to kidney injury. This study aimed to explore the role of PVT1 in the development of CKD in CHF patients. Methods Expression of PVT1 in plasma samples of CHF patients with and without CKD was determined by RT-qPCR. The diagnostic value of plasma PVT1 for CKD was evaluated by ROC curve analysis. The predictive value of PVT1 for the development of CKD in CHF patients was analyzed by a 2-year follow-up study. Changes in PVT1 expression in CKD patients during treatment were analyzed by RT-qPCR and reflected by heatmaps. Results Plasma PVT1 was downregulated in CHF and further downregulated in CHF patients complicated with progressive CKD. ROC curve analysis showed that plasma PVT1 levels could be used to distinguish CHF patients complicated with CKD from CHF patients without CKD and healthy controls. During a 2-year follow-up, patients with high CHF levels had a low incidence of progressive CKD among CHF patients. Moreover, with the treatment of progressive CKD, plasma PVT1 was upregulated. Conclusions LncRNA-PVT1 downregulation may participate in the development of progressive CKD among patients with CHF.

Abstract 12872: Machine Learning on Dual-isotope Myocardial Semiconductor SPECT Can Predict Cardiac Prognosis in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masato Shimizu ◽  
shummo cho ◽  
Yoshiki Misu ◽  
Mari Ohmori ◽  
Ryo Tateishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Dual Isotope ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Introduction: Dual-isotope (201TlCl and 123I-β-methyl-P-iodophenyl-pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP) ) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is utilized to estimate not only in patients with ischemic heart disease but with congestive heart failure (CHF). We tried to construct predictive model for cardiac prognosis on the SPECT for cardiac death by machine learning. Hypothesis: Machine learning is a powerful tool to predict cardiac prognosis in patients with CHF Methods: Consecutive 310 patients who admitted with CHF (77.1±3.1 years, 164 males) were enrolled. After initial treatment, they underwent electrocardiography gated SPECT and observed in median 507 days [IQR: 165, 1032]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis for cardiac death was performed, and predictive model was constructed by ROC curve analysis and machine learning (Random Forest and Deep Learning). The accuracies (= [True positive + True negative] / Total) of the prediction models were compared with ROC curve model. Results: Thirty-six patients fell into cardiac death. Cox analysis showed Age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), summed rest score (SRS) of BMIPP, and mismatch score were significant predictors (Hazard ratio: 1.068, 0.970, 1.032, 1.092, P value: <0.001, 0.014, 0.002, <0.001, respectively). ROC curve analysis of them revealed the accuracy of the cut-off value was 0.479-0.773. Conversely, machine learning model demonstrated higher accuracy for cardiac death (Random Forest: 0.895, Deep Learning: 0.935). The top 4 feature importance of the random forest were LVEF (0.299), SRS BMIPP (0.263), Age (0.262), and mismatch score (0.160). Conclusions: Machine learning model on SPECT had powerful predictive value for predicting cardiac death in patients with CHF.

scholarly journals Prognostic value of baseline versus 6-month follow infarct size in patients with reperfused STEMI

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Valente ◽  
J Gavara ◽  
M Calvo ◽  
P Rello ◽  
M Maymi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Ventricular Arrhythmia ◽  
Infarct Size ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Information ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Acute infarct size is a predictor of clinical outcomes in acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, although its prognostic value has differed between studies. In acute STEMI, infarct size is often overestimated due to the presence of extensive myocardial oedema, a confounder that is no longer present at a 6-month follow-up study. It was our purpose to assess whether infarct size in the acute phase or at 6-months follow-up provided superior prognostic information in STEMI patients. Methods STEMI patients who underwent successful primary percutaneous revascularization were included and a cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) was performed between 5–7 days after STEMI and at 6 months to study infarct size (as a % of myocardial mass). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular mortality, hospitalization for heart failure and ventricular arrhythmia. Results A total of 796 patients were included (mean age 58.3±11.5 years, 82.4% male, 52.3% anterior infarction). During a mean follow-up of 59 months, 59 patients (7.4%) presented with the primary end-point (cardiovascular death n=7, hospitalization for heart failure n=52, ventricular arrhythmia n=1). ROC curve analysis (figure 1) showed a non-significant difference between baseline and 6-month infarct size for the prediction of the primary endpoint (baseline AUC 0.685 95% CI 0.610–0.760, 6-month AUC 0.713 95% CI 0.643–0.782, p=0.60). Optimal cut-off values for baseline and 6-months follow-up infarct size for prediction of outcomes, respectively 22% and 17.5%, were used for Kaplan-Meier curve analysis (figure 2). Conclusion Infarct size estimated during the first week after STEMI and at 6-months follow-up showed similar predictive value and with similar cut-off values. Therefore, the prognostic information provided by infarct size can be obtained during initial STEMI admission and does not require a waiting period for infarct size stabilization. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. ROC curve analysis Kaplan-Meier analysis

Acute heart failure: predicting early in-hospital outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Santos ◽  
S Paula ◽  
I Almeida ◽  
H Santos ◽  
H Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Patients (P) with acute heart failure (AHF) are a heterogeneous population. Risk stratification at admission may help predict in-hospital complications and needs. The Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure score (GWTG-HF) predicts in-hospital mortality (M) of P admitted with AHF. ACTION ICU score is validated to estimate the risk of complications requiring ICU care in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. Objective To validate ACTION-ICU score in AHF and to compare ACTION-ICU to GWTG-HF as predictors of in-hospital M (IHM), early M [1-month mortality (1mM)] and 1-month readmission (1mRA), using real-life data. Methods Based on a single-center retrospective study, data collected from P admitted in the Cardiology department with AHF between 2010 and 2017. P without data on previous cardiovascular history or uncompleted clinical data were excluded. Statistical analysis used chi-square, non-parametric tests, logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis. Results Among the 300 P admitted with AHF included, mean age was 67.4 ± 12.6 years old and 72.7% were male. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131.2 ± 37.0mmHg, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 57.1 ± 23.5ml/min. 35.3% were admitted in Killip-Kimball class (KKC) 4. ACTION-ICU score was 10.4 ± 2.3 and GWTG-HF was 41.7 ± 9.6. Inotropes’ usage was necessary in 32.7% of the P, 11.3% of the P needed non-invasive ventilation (NIV), 8% needed invasive ventilation (IV). IHM rate was 5% and 1mM was 8%. 6.3% of the P were readmitted 1 month after discharge. Older age (p &lt; 0.001), lower SBP (p = 0,035) and need of inotropes (p &lt; 0.001) were predictors of IHM in our population. As expected, patients presenting in KKC 4 had higher IHM (OR 8.13, p &lt; 0.001). Older age (OR 1.06, p = 0.002, CI 1.02-1.10), lower SBP (OR 1.01, p = 0.05, CI 1.00-1.02) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.09) were predictors of need of NIV. None of the variables were predictive of IV. LVEF (OR 0.924, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.899-0.949), lower SBP (OR 0.80, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.971-0.988), higher urea (OR 1.01, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.005-1.018) and lower sodium (OR 0.92, p = 0.002, CI 0.873-0.971) were predictors of inotropes’ usage. Logistic regression showed that GWTG-HF predicted IHM (OR 1.12, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.05-1.19), 1mM (OR 1.10, p = 1.10, CI 1.04-1.16) and inotropes’s usage (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.10), however it was not predictive of 1mRA, need of IV or NIV. Similarly, ACTION-ICU predicted IHM (OR 1.51, p = 0.02, CI 1.158-1.977), 1mM (OR 1.45, p = 0.002, CI 1.15-1.81) and inotropes’ usage (OR 1.22, p = 0.002, CI 1.08-1.39), but not 1mRA, the need of IV or NIV. ROC curve analysis revealed that GWTG-HF score performed better than ACTION-ICU regarding IHM (AUC 0.774, CI 0.46-0-90 vs AUC 0.731, CI 0.59-0.88) and 1mM (AUC 0.727, CI 0.60-0.85 vs AUC 0.707, CI 0.58-0.84). Conclusion In our population, both scores were able to predict IHM, 1mM and inotropes’s usage.

scholarly journals Plasma natriuretic peptide level is an independent determinant of major clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation patients without heart failure: the Fushimi AF Registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Hamatani ◽  
M Iguchi ◽  
Y Aono ◽  
K Ishigami ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Prognostic Marker ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Systemic Embolism ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of death, stroke/systemic embolism and heart failure (HF). Plasma natriuretic peptide (NP) level is an important prognostic marker in HF patients. However, little is known regarding the prognostic significance of plasma NP level in AF patients without HF. Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between plasma NP level and clinical outcomes such as all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization during follow-up period in AF patients without HF. Methods The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in our city. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,466 patients by the end of November 2019. From the registry, we excluded 1,220 patients without a pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following; prior hospitalization for HF, New York Heart Association class ≥2, or left ventricular ejection fraction &lt;40%). Among 3,246 AF patients without HF, we investigated 1,189 patients with the data of plasma BNP (n=401) or N-terminal pro-BNP (n=788) level at the enrollment. We divided the patients according to the quartile of each plasma BNP or NT-pro BNP level and compared the backgrounds and outcomes between these 4 groups stratified by plasma NP level. Results Of 1,189 patients, the mean age was 72.1±10.2 years, 454 (38%) were female and 684 (58%) were paroxysmal AF. The mean CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score were 1.6±1.1 and 2.9±1.5, respectively. Oral anticoagulants were prescribed in 671 (56%) at baseline. The median (interquartile range) BNP and N-terminal pro-BNP level were 84 (38, 176) and 500 (155, 984) pg/ml, respectively. Patients with high plasma NP level were older, and demonstrated lower prevalence of paroxysmal AF, higher CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores and higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease and oral anticoagulants prescription (all P&lt;0.01). A total of 165 all-cause death, 114 stroke/systemic embolism and 103 HF hospitalization occurred during the median follow-up period of 5.0 years. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that higher plasma NP level was significantly associated with the incidences of all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization in AF patients without HF (Figure 1A). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that plasma NP level could stratify the risk of clinical outcomes even after adjustment by type of AF, CHA2DS2-VASc score, chronic kidney disease and oral anticoagulant prescription (Figure 1B). Conclusion Plasma NP level is a significant prognostic marker for all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization in AF patients without HF, suggesting the importance of measuring plasma NP level in AF patients even without HF. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

MO368THE INCIDENCE AND RISK FACTORS FOR ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY IN PATIENTS TREATED WITH IMMUNE CHECKPOINT INHIBITORS: A REAL-LIFE STUDY

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Can Güven ◽  
Deniz Aral Ozbek ◽  
Taha Koray Sahin ◽  
Melek Seren Aksun ◽  
Gozde Kavgaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Checkpoint Inhibitors ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Kidney Injury

Abstract Background and Aims The immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) became a vital part of cancer treatment. The ICIs seem to be safer than chemotherapy for kidneys in clinical trials. However, recent observational studies from high-resource settings pointed out the possible underreporting of renal adverse events like acute kidney injury (AKI) in the clinical trials due to focusing only to the renal immune-related adverse events. Additionally, clinical trials generally enroll a fitter population with lesser comorbidities and include mostly treatment-naive patients making studies in real-life cohorts imperative for evaluating the AKI rates during ICI treatment. From these points, we aimed to evaluate the AKI rates and predisposing factors in ICI-treated patients. Method This retrospective study has evaluated the data of adult metastatic cancer patients treated with ICIs in Hacettepe University Cancer Center from 01.2014 to 12.2019. All patients other than the ones treated within the context of clinical trials or followed in other institutions after the first dose of ICIs were included. Baseline demographics, cancer types, patient weight and heights, ICI type and the number of cycles, serum creatinine and the estimated GFR values under treatment, regular medications, and comorbidities were recorded. AKI was defined by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The predisposing factors to AKI development were evaluated with the univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A total of 147 patients were included in the analyses. Median age was 61 [interquartile range (IQR) 51-67], and 69.4% of the patients were male. Patients were given a median of 8 (IQR 5-17) ICI cycles. Patients with melanoma (24.5%), non-small cell lung cancer (15%), and renal cell carcinoma (25.9%) comprised almost 2/3 of the cohort and 72.8% of the patients were treated with nivolumab. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (38.1%), followed by chronic kidney disease (21.2%) and type 2 diabetes (19.7%). Median Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was 8 (7-9). Median follow-up was 10.3 (IQR 6.3-19.4) months, and patients had median 9 (IQR 5-18) serum creatinine measurements. During the follow-up, 28 patients (19%) had at least one AKI episode with multiple AKI episodes in 3 patients (10.7%). The median time to AKI development was 2.53 (IQR 1.39-6.19) months. Almost all AKI events were mild (grade 1 or 2 in 27/28) and reversible (25/28). In univariate analyses, coronary artery disease (CAD) (p=&lt;0.001), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (p=0.002), previous nephrectomy (p=0.015), iodinated contrast exposure in the week before immunotherapy (p=0.035), the use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (p=0.046) or proton pump inhibitors (PPI) (p=0.041) was associated with an increased AKI risk. The association between diabetes (p=0.067), higher CCI (9 vs. ≥9, p=0.107), baseline lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.177), and performance status (ECOG 0 vs. ≥1, p=0.235) and AKI risk did not reach statistical significance. In multivariate analyses, patients with CKD (OR: 3.719, 95% CI: 1.375- 10.057, p=0.010) or CAD (OR: 4.774, 95% CI: 1.803- 12.641, p=0.002) had increased AKI risk. Additionally, regular PPI use (OR: 2.734, 95% CI: .991- 7.542, p=0.052) had borderline statistical significance for AKI development. The development of AKI was not associated with decreased survival (HR: 0.726, 95% CI: 0.409-1.291, p=0.276). Conclusion In this study, we observed AKI development under ICIs in almost one in five cancer patients. The increased AKI rates in patients with CAD, CKD, or regular PPI use pointed out the need for better onco-nephrology collaboration in all ICI-treated patients, with a particular emphasis in these high-risk patients.

O210 Risk factors for congestive heart failure in patients with chronic kidney disease: the CRIC study

Global Heart ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e58
Author(s):  
Jiang He ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Amanda Anderson ◽  
Harold Feldman ◽  
John Kusek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Kidney Disease

scholarly journals HMOX1 and Acute Kidney Injury in Sickle Cell Anemia

Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (Suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 686-686
Author(s):  
Santosh L. Saraf ◽  
Maya Viner ◽  
Ariel Rischall ◽  
Binal Shah ◽  
Xu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Sickle Cell ◽  
Sickle Cell Anemia ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Kdigo Guidelines

Abstract Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with tubulointerstitial fibrosis and nephron loss and may lead to an increased risk for subsequently developing chronic kidney disease (CKD). In adults with sickle cell anemia (SCA), high rates of CKD have been consistently observed, although the incidence and risk factors for AKI are less clear. We evaluated the incidence of AKI, defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines as a rise in serum creatinine by ≥0.3mg/dL within 48 hours or ≥1.5 times baseline within seven days, in 158 of 299 adult SCA patients enrolled in a longitudinal cohort from the University of Illinois at Chicago. These patients were selected based on the availability of genotyping for α-thalassemia, BCL11A rs1427407, APOL1 G1/G2, and the HMOX1 rs743811 and GT-repeat variants. Median values and interquartile range (IQR) are provided. With a median follow up time of 66 months (IQR, 51-74 months), 137 AKI events were observed in 63 (40%) SCA patients. AKI was most commonly observed in the following settings: acute chest syndrome (25%), an uncomplicated vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC)(24%), a VOC with pre-renal azotemia determined by a fractional excretion of sodium &lt;1% or BUN-to-creatinine ratio &gt;20:1 (14%), or a VOC with increased hemolysis, defined as an increase in serum LDH or indirect bilirubin level &gt;1.5 times over the baseline value at the time of enrollment (12%). Compared to individuals who did not develop AKI, SCA adults who developed an AKI event were older (AKI: median and IQR age of 35 (26-46) years, no AKI: 28 (23 - 26) years; P=0.01) and had a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (AKI: median and IQR eGFR of 123 (88-150) mL/min/1.73m2, no AKI: 141 (118-154) mL/min/1.73m2; P=0.02) by the Kruskal-Wallis test at the time of enrollment. We evaluated the association of a panel of candidate gene variants with the risk of developing an AKI event. These included loci related to the degree of hemolysis (α-thalassemia, BCL11A rs1427407), to chronic kidney disease (APOL1 G1/G2 risk variants), and to heme metabolism (HMOX1) . Using a logistic regression model that adjusted for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the risk of an AKI event was associated with older age (10-year OR 2.6, 95%CI 1.4-4.8, P=0.002), HMOX1 rs743811 (OR 3.1, 95%CI 1.1-8.7, P=0.03), and long HMOX1 GT-repeats, defined as &gt;25 repeats (OR 2.5, 95%CI 1.01-6.1, P=0.04). Next, we assessed whether AKI is associated with a more rapid decline in eGFR and with CKD progression, defined as a 50% reduction in eGFR, on longitudinal follow up. Using a mixed effects model that adjusted for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the rate of eGFR decline was significantly greater in those with an AKI event (β = -0.51) vs. no AKI event (β = -0.16) (P=0.03). With a median follow up time of 66 months (IQR, 51-74 months), CKD progression was observed in 21% (13/61) of SCA patients with an AKI event versus 9% (8/88) without an AKI event. After adjusting for age and eGFR at the time of enrollment, the severity of an AKI event according to KDIGO guidelines (stage 1 if serum creatinine rises 1.5-1.9 times baseline, stage 2 if the rise is 2.0-2.9 times baseline, and stage 3 if the rise is ≥3 times baseline or ≥4.0 mg/dL or requires renal replacement therapy) was a risk factor for CKD progression (unadjusted HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, P=0.02; age- and eGFR-adjusted HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.5, P=0.03). In conclusion, AKI is commonly observed in adults with sickle cell anemia and is associated with increasing age and the HMOX1 GT-repeat and rs743811 polymorphisms. Furthermore, AKI may be associated with a steeper decline in kidney function and more severe AKI events may be a risk factor for subsequent CKD progression in SCA. Future studies understanding the mechanisms, consequences of AKI on long-term kidney function, and therapies to prevent AKI in SCA are warranted. Disclosures Gordeuk: Emmaus Life Sciences: Consultancy.

Abstract 12455: Evaluation of N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide as a Therapeutic Response Biomarker in Group I Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron M Wolfson ◽  
Micheal L Maitland ◽  
Vasiliki Thomeas ◽  
Cherylanne Glassner ◽  
Mardi Gomberg-Maitland
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension ◽  
Arterial Hypertension ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Goal Directed Therapy ◽  
Group I ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Pulmonary Arterial

Purpose: Goal directed management of left heart failure with an NT-proBNP target-based approach has some evidence of providing a survival benefit. To evaluate the potential utility of serial NT-proBNP measurements for goal-directed therapy in right heart failure we retrospectively assessed NT-proBNP as a predictor for survival in Group I pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients. Methods: We identified 103 Group I PAH patients from a pulmonary hypertension registry who had baseline elevated NT-proBNP prior to either the initiation or escalation of therapy and at least two serial NT-proBNP measurements. In a two-step process, we (1) estimated baseline NT-proBNP and slope (rate of change of NT-proBNP) with a linear mixed-effects model using all patient data and then (2) compared the power of serial versus single measurements in predicting survival with measured and model-derived values of baseline NT-proBNP with a Receiver Operative Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis . Survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier methodology. Results: ROC curve analysis revealed significantly higher AUC for model-derived NT-proBNP values compared to the measured values (AUC: for baseline 0.74 vs 0.66, p= 0.009; for slope 0.78 vs 0.66, p= 0.02). Optimal cutpoints for prediction of survival on baseline NT-proBNP were 2012 (measured) vs. 1810 (model-derived) pg/mL. The optimal cutpoint for model-derived change in NT-proBNP was -0.004 log10pg/mL/month. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values for the three predictor variables were: 64%, 67%, 80% (measured baseline NT-proBNP), 61%, 80%, 81% (model-derived baseline NT-proBNP) and 73%, 57%, 85% (model-derived slope). Conclusions: In PAH patients, serial NT-proBNP measurements better predict survival than single measurements. This retrospective finding reveals that changes in NT-proBNP are associated with overall survival in PAH patients, and set initial target values for a pilot prospective study of NT-proBNP goal-directed therapy.

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