scholarly journals The relative importance and stability of disease burden causes over time: summarizing regional trends on disease burden for 290 causes over 28 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Dyson ◽  
Raf Van Gestel ◽  
Eddy van Doorslaer

Abstract Background Since the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) has become more comprehensive, data for hundreds of causes of disease burden, measured using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), have become increasingly available for almost every part of the world. However, undergoing any systematic comparative analysis of the trends can be challenging given the quantity of data that must be presented. Methods We use the GBD data to describe trends in cause-specific DALY rates for eight regions. We quantify the extent to which the importance of ‘major’ DALY causes changes relative to ‘minor’ DALY causes over time by decomposing changes in the Gini coefficient into ‘proportionality’ and ‘reranking’ indices. Results The fall in regional DALY rates since 1990 has been accompanied by generally positive proportionality indices and reranking indices of negligible magnitude. However, the rate at which DALY rates have been falling has slowed and, at the same time, proportionality indices have tended towards zero. These findings are clearest where the focus is exclusively upon non-communicable diseases. Notably, large and positive proportionality indices are recorded for sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade. Conclusion The positive proportionality indices show that disease burden has become less concentrated around the leading causes over time, and this trend has become less prominent as the DALY rate decline has slowed. The recent decline in disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionally driven by improvements in DALY rates for HIV/AIDS, as well as for malaria, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory infections.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Dyson ◽  
Raf Van Gestel ◽  
Eddy van Doorslaer

Abstract Background Since the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) has become more comprehensive, data for hundreds of causes of disease burden, measured using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), have become increasingly available for almost every part of the world. However, undergoing any systematic comparative analysis of the trends can be challenging given the quantity of data that must be presented.Methods We use the GBD data to describe trends in cause-specific DALY rates for eight regions. We quantify the extent to which the importance of ‘major’ DALY causes changes relative to ‘minor’ DALY causes over time by decomposing changes in the Gini coefficient into ‘proportionality’ and ‘reranking’ indices.Results The fall in regional DALY rates since 1990 has been accompanied by generally positive proportionality indices and reranking indices of negligible magnitude. However, the rate at which DALY rates have been falling has slowed and, at the same time, proportionality indices have tended towards zero. These findings are clearest where the focus is exclusively upon non-communicable diseases. Notably, large and positive proportionality indices are recorded for sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade. Conclusion The positive proportionality indices show that disease burden has become less concentrated around the leading causes over time, and this trend has become less prominent as the DALY rate decline has slowed. The recent decline in disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionally driven by improvements in DALY rates for HIV/AIDS, as well as for malaria, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory infections.


2020 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2020-317063
Author(s):  
Guangming Jin ◽  
Minjie Zou ◽  
Yichi Zhang ◽  
Aiming Chen ◽  
Charlotte Aimee Young ◽  
...  

PurposeTo estimate the disease burden due to intraocular foreign bodies (IOFBs) and evaluate contributions of various risk factors to IOFB-associated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).MethodsGlobal, regional and country-level number, rate and age-standardised rate of DALYs due to IOFBs were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database. The Human Development Index (HDI) and other region and country-level data were obtained from open databases. Time trends for number, rate and age-standardised rate of DALYs due to IOFBs were calculated. Regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between age-standardised rate of DALYs and potential predictors.ResultsGlobal DALYs due to IOFBs rose by 43.7% between 1990 (139 (95% CI 70.8 to 233) thousand) and 2017 (202 (95% CI 105 to 335) thousand). The DALY rate remained stable while the age-standardised rate decreased during this period. Higher disease burden due to IOFBs was associated with higher glaucoma prevalence (β=0.006, 95% CI 0.003 to 0.09, p<0.001), lower refractive error prevalence (β=−0.0005, 95% CI −0.0007 to −0.0002, p<0.001), and lower income (β=−0.020, 95% CI −0.035 to −0.006, p=0.007).ConclusionPredictors of a greater burden of IOFB disability generally point to lower socioeconomic level. The association with glaucoma may reflect a complication of IOFB, increasing risk of vision loss and disability.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-661
Author(s):  
Seung Ha Park ◽  
Dong Joon Kim

Alcohol is a well-known risk factor for premature morbidity and mortality. The per capita alcohol consumption of the world’s population rose from 5.5 L in 2005 to 6.4 L in 2010 and was still at the level of 6.4 L in 2016. Alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) declined from 2000 to 2016 by 17.9% and 14.5%, respectively. However, these gains observed in the alcohol-attributable burden have proportionally not kept pace with the total health gains during the same period. In 2016, 3.0 million deaths worldwide and 132 million DALYs were attributable to alcohol, responsible for 5.3% of all deaths and 5.0% of all DALYs. These burdens are the highest in the regions of Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. The alcohol-attributable burden is particularly heavy among young adults, accounting for 7.2% of all premature mortalities. Among the disease categories to which alcohol is related, injuries, digestive diseases, and cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of the alcohol-attributable burden. To reduce the harmful use of alcohol in a country, the ‘whole of government’ and ‘whole of society’ approaches are required with the implementation of evidence-based alcohol control policies, the pursuit of public health priorities, and the adoption of appropriate policies over a long period of time. In this review, we summarize previous efforts to investigate the alcohol-attributable disease burden and the best ways to protect against harmful use of alcohol and promote health.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Lu ◽  
jianxue Zhai ◽  
Jintao Zhan ◽  
Xiguang Liu ◽  
Xiaoying Dong ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Esophageal cancer is the 10th leading cancer in US but given limited research attention. This study aimed to investigate the esophageal cancer disease burden more comprehensively in US. Methods: Having retrieved states-categorized data on esophageal cancer incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years from the Global Burden of Disease study online resource, the current trends on esophageal cancer disease burden attributed to different risk factors and their relationship with economic status were analyzed using age-standardized rate and the estimated annual percentage change.Results: In US, the esophageal cancer age-standardized rate of incidence has been stable but age-standardized rates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years trended to decreased with estimated annual percentage changes of -0.237% and -0.471% from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardized rate of incidence was higher in males than in females, but both didn’t increase, so as age-standardized rates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years. The largest increase in age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years was observed in Oklahoma, whereas the largest decrease was seen in the District of Columbia. Age-standardized rates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years contributed to high BMI or diet low in fruits were growing. per capita disposable personal income trended to negatively correlated with estimated annual percentage changes of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years.Conclusions: The esophageal cancer disease burden in US decreased from 1990 to 2017 but was heavier in males than in females, and increased in economically weaker states and populations with high BMI and low-fruit diet.


2020 ◽  
pp. 204748732094941
Author(s):  
Paolo A Cortesi ◽  
Carla Fornari ◽  
Fabiana Madotto ◽  
Sara Conti ◽  
Mohsen Naghavi ◽  
...  

Aims An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries. Methods All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries. Results Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (–12.7%), mortality rate (–53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (–55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function. Conclusions Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaofeng Huang ◽  
Su Lin ◽  
Jinshui Pan ◽  
Lingling Lu ◽  
Bang Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundSexually transmitted infections (STIs) are major public health problems worldwide. Understanding the disease burden are crucial for health policy making. This study was to assess global and regional STIs incidence, mortality and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019.Methods­­­­Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, which is an open database for download. Age-standardized rate and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the burden of STIs over time.ResultsIn 2019, the total number of incident cases of STIs was 769.85 million worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rate was stable from 1990 to 2019 with the EAPC of −0.04 (95% UI: −0.09 to 0.01). In 2019, the number of deaths caused by STIs was 89.89×103, which was 15.51% lower than that of 1990 (106.52×103). A decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 was observed in the age-standardized death and DALYs. The age-standardized death and DALYs rate due to STIs were the highest in the younger age (<14 years old). As for different diseases, syphilis was the least common STIs with an age-standardized incidence rate of 178.48/100,000, while syphilis was also the main contributor to the age-standardized death and DALYs rate. These two indicators were negatively associated with sociodemographic level.ConclusionsThe global incidence of STIs has been persistently high from 1990 to 2019, while the age-standardized death and DALYs rate has decreased recently. More attention should be paid to the younger population, patients with syphilis and regions with low sociodemographic index.


Author(s):  
David Bell ◽  
Kristian Schultz Hansen

COVID-19 has had considerable global impact; however, in sub-Saharan Africa, it is one of several infectious disease priorities. Prioritization is normally guided by disease burden, but the highly age-dependent nature of COVID-19 and that of other infectious diseases make comparisons challenging unless considered through metrics that incorporate life-years lost and time lived with adverse health. Therefore, we compared the 2020 mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost estimates for malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan African populations with more than 12 months of COVID-19 burden (until the end of March 2021) by applying known age-related mortality to United Nations estimates of the age structure. We further compared exacerbations of disease burden predicted from the COVID-19 public health response. Data were derived from public sources and predicted exacerbations were derived from those published by international agencies. For sub-Saharan African populations north of South Africa, the estimated recorded COVID-19 DALYs lost in 2020 were 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.4% for tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and malaria, respectively. Predicted exacerbations of these diseases were greater than the estimated COVID-19 burden. Including South Africa and Lesotho, COVID-19 DALYs lost were < 12% of those for other compared diseases; furthermore, the mortality of compared diseases were dominated in all age groups younger than 65 years. This analysis suggests the relatively low impact of COVID-19. Although all four epidemics continue, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and malaria remain far greater health priorities based on their disease burdens. Therefore, resource diversion to COVID-19 poses a high risk of increasing the overall disease burden and causing net harm, thereby further increasing global inequities in health and life expectancy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Mughini Gras

Abstract In the Netherlands, the Ministry of Health mandates the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to provide annual updates of the number of illnesses, disease burden and cost-of-illness caused by an agreed-upon standard panel of 14 enteric pathogens. These pathogens are mainly transmitted by food, but also via direct contact with animals, environment-mediated and human-to-human transmission routes. The disease burden is expressed in DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years), a metric integrating morbidity and mortality into one unit. Furthermore, the cost-of-illness (COI) related to these 14 pathogens is estimated and expressed in euros. The COI estimates include healthcare costs, the costs for the patient and/or his family, such as travel expenses, as well as costs in other sectors, for example due to productivity losses. Moreover, using different approaches to source attribution, the estimated DALYs and associated COI estimates are attributed to five major transmission pathways (i.e. food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and 11 food groups within the foodborne pathway itself. The most recent DALY and COI estimates referring to the year 2018 show that the 14 pathogens in question are cumulatively responsible for about 11,000 DALYs and €426 million costs for the Dutch population in 2018, with a share for foodborne transmission being estimated at 4,300 DALYs and €171 million costs, which is comparable to previous years. These estimates have been providing vital insights for policy making as to guide public health interventions and resource allocation for over two decades in the Netherlands. Herewith, the approach and outcomes of the burden of disease and COI estimates in the Netherlands will be presented, with a focus on how these estimates enable policy-makers and the scientific community to monitor trends, generate scientific hypotheses, and undertake public health actions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepa Jahagirdar ◽  
Magdalene Walters ◽  
Avina Vongpradith ◽  
Xiaochen Dai ◽  
Amanda Novotney ◽  
...  

AbstractHIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa declined substantially between 2000 and 2015. In this analysis, we consider the relative associations of nine structural and individual determinants with this decline. A linear mixed effects model of logged HIV incidence rates versus determinants was used. The data were from mathematical modelling as part of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study in 43 sub-Saharan African countries. We used forwards selection to determine a single final model of HIV incidence rate. The association of economic variables and HIV knowledge with incidence was found to be driven by education, while ART coverage had the largest impact on other determinants’ coefficients. In the final model, education years per capita contributed the most to explaining variation in HIV incidence rates; a 1-year increase in mean education years was associated with a 0.39 (− 0.56; − 0.2, t = − 4.48 p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate while a unit increase in ART coverage was associated with a 0.81 (− 1.34; − 0.28, t = − 3.01, p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate.


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