scholarly journals Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Xiaoyi Wang ◽  
Shaofa Yang ◽  
Xinlan Cheng ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Habitat Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Dispersal Abilities

Abstract Background Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog. Results We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that “overwarm” climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50–75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward. Conclusions Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Future climate change projects positive impacts on sugarcane productivity in southern China

2018 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 108-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyan Ruan ◽  
Puyu Feng ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Hongtao Xing ◽  
Garry J. O’Leary ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Projects ◽  
Sugarcane Productivity ◽  
Positive Impacts

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

A multiproxy reconstruction of vegetation dynamics in the Eastern Alps (Switzerland): combining paleoecological and paleogenetic approaches.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Dziomber ◽  
Lisa Gurtner ◽  
Maria Leunda ◽  
Christoph Schwörer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ancient Dna ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Plant Remains ◽  
The Impact

<p>Current and future climate change is a serious threat to biodiversity and ecosystem stability. With a rapid increase of global temperatures by 1.5°C since the pre-industrial period and a projected warming of 1.5-4°C by the end of this century, plant species are forced to either adapt to these changes, shift their distribution range to higher elevation, or face population decline and extinction. Today, there is an urgent need to better understand the responses of mountain vegetation to climate change in order to predict the consequences of the human-driven global change currently occurring during the Anthropocene and maintain species diversity and ecosystem services. However, most predictions are based on short-term experiments. There is, in general, an insufficient use of longer time scales in conservation biology to understand long-term processes. Palaeoecological data are a great source of information to infer past species responses to changing environmental factors, such as climate or anthropogenic disturbances.</p><p>The last climate change of a similar magnitude and rate as projected for this century was the transition between the last Ice Age and the Holocene interglacial (ca. 11,700 years ago). By analyzing subfossil plant remains such as plant macrofossils, charcoal and pollen from natural archives, we can study past responses to climate change. However, until recently it was not possible to reconstruct changes at the population level. With the development of new methods to extract ancient DNA (aDNA) from plant remains and next generation DNA-sequencing techniques, we can now infer past population dynamics by analyzing the genetic variation through time. Ancient DNA might also be able to reveal if species could adapt to climatic changes by identifying intraspecific variation of specific genes related to climatic adaptations.</p><p>We are currently investigating a palaeoecological archive from a high-altitude mountain lake, Lai da Vons (1991 m a.s.l), situated in Eastern Switzerland. We are presenting preliminary macrofossil, pollen and charcoal results to reconstruct local to regional vegetation and fire dynamics with high chronological precision and resolution. In a next step, we will use novel molecular methods, in order to track adaptive and neutral genetic diversity through the Holocene by analyzing aDNA from subfossil conifer needles. The overarching goal of this large-scale, multiproxy study is to better understand past vegetation dynamics and the impact of future climate change on plants at multiple scales; from the genetic to the community level.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 10418-10423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orly Razgour ◽  
Brenna Forester ◽  
John B. Taggart ◽  
Michaël Bekaert ◽  
Javier Juste ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Genetic Variation ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

scholarly journals The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491
Author(s):  
Xuhui Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Zefang Zhao ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Quanzhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

scholarly journals Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12308
Author(s):  
Hongyan Gao ◽  
Long Wang ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Jianhua Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

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