scholarly journals Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12308
Author(s):  
Hongyan Gao ◽  
Long Wang ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Jianhua Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heliot Zarza ◽  
Enrique Martínez-Meyer ◽  
Gerardo Suzán ◽  
Gerardo Ceballos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Desmodus Rotundus

Veterinaria México OA ISSN: 2448-6760Cite this as:Zarza H, Martínez-Meyer E, Suzán G, Ceballos G. Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection. Veterinaria México OA. 2017;4(3). doi: 10.21753/vmoa.4.3.390.Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.Figure 4. Modelled suitability for future distribution of Desmodus rotundus according to Global Climate Model GFDL-CM3 for two time periods (2050 and 2070), and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Left-hand column shows suitability values, with blue indicating more suitable conditions.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Lele Lin ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Lei Xie ◽  
Guofa Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Chinese White ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pine Species

White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

scholarly journals Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Yuncheng Zhao ◽  
Mingyue Zhao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Chunyi Wang ◽  
Yinlong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Camellia Sinensis ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tea Production ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (Camellia sinensis L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 104 km2 (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 104 km2 (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 104 km2 (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.

scholarly journals Updating the global occurrence of Culicoides imicola, a vector for emerging viral diseases

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson Leta ◽  
Eyerusalem Fetene ◽  
Tesfaye Mulatu ◽  
Kebede Amenu ◽  
Megarsa Bedasa Jaleta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Global Database ◽  
Western Africa ◽  
Culicoides Imicola ◽  
Technical Validation ◽  
Emerging Viral Diseases

Abstract Culicoides imicola is the main vector transmitting viruses causing animal diseases such as Bluetongue, African Horse Sickness, and Schmallenberg. It has become widely distributed, with reports from South Africa to southern Europe, and from western Africa to southern China. This study presents a global compendium of Culicoides imicola occurrence between 1943 and 2018, reflecting the most recently compiled and harmonized global dataset derived from peer-reviewed literature. The procedures used in producing the data, as well as the geo-coding methods, database management and technical validation procedures are described. The study provides an updated and comprehensive global database of C. imicola occurrence, consisting of 1 039 geo-coded records from 50 countries. The datasets can be used for risk mapping of the diseases transmitted by C. imicola as well as to develop the global habitat suitability for the vector.

scholarly journals Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Xiaoyi Wang ◽  
Shaofa Yang ◽  
Xinlan Cheng ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Habitat Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Dispersal Abilities

Abstract Background Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog. Results We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that “overwarm” climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50–75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward. Conclusions Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

scholarly journals Modelling potential climate change impacts on sediment yield in the Tsitsa River catchment, South Africa

Water SA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (1 January) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Norah Theron ◽  
Harold Louw Weepener ◽  
Jacobus Johannes Le Roux ◽  
Christina Johanna Engelbrecht
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Negative Effects

The effects of climate change on water resources could be numerous and widespread, affecting water quality and water security across the globe. Variations in rainfall erosivity and temporal patterns, along with changes in biomass and land use, are some of the impacts climate change is projected to have on soil erosion. Sedimentation of watercourses and reservoirs, especially in water-stressed regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, may hamper climate change resilience. Modelling sediment yield under various climate change scenarios is vital to develop mitigation strategies which offset the negative effects of erosion and ensure infrastructure remains sustainable under future climate change. This study investigated the relative change in sediment yield with projected climate change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a rural catchment in South Africa for the period 2015–2100. Data from six downscaled Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM) were divided into three shorter time periods, namely, 2015–2034, 2045–2064 and 2081–2100. Results were then compared with a control scenario using observed data for the period 2002–2017. The results show that, if left unmanaged, climate change will likely lead to greater sediment yield, of up to 10% more per annum. Peak sediment yield will also increase almost three-fold throughout the century. The study shows that projected climate change will have multiple negative effects on soil erosion and emphasised the need for changes in climate to be considered when embarking on water resource developments.

scholarly journals Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunjing Wang ◽  
Chengzhu Liu ◽  
Jizhong Wan ◽  
Zhixiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Nature Reserves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Threatened Plant ◽  
Threatened Plant Species ◽  
Climate Suitability

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves.

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