scholarly journals Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 10418-10423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orly Razgour ◽  
Brenna Forester ◽  
John B. Taggart ◽  
Michaël Bekaert ◽  
Javier Juste ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Genetic Variation ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

scholarly journals Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Leclerc ◽  
Franck Courchamp ◽  
Céline Bellard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

scholarly journals The Effects of Climate Change on Landscape Connectivity and Genetic Clusters in a Small Subtropical and Warm-Temperate Tree

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bicai Guan ◽  
Jingjing Gao ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Xi Gong ◽  
Gang Ge
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Genetic Data ◽  
Population Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Genetic Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Potential ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Genetic Clusters

Climate change is a great threat to global biodiversity and has resulted in serious ecological consequences. Although the potential effects of climate change on genetic diversity have recently received much research attention, little research has focused on the impacts of climate change on genetic connectivity and the relationship between climate stability and genetic divergence. Here, we combined population connectivity with genetic data to predict the impacts of future climate change on genetic connectivity. Coupled with climatic variables and genetic data, we used POPS software to create spatially explicit simulations and predict the dynamics in genetic clusters in response to climate changes. A generalized additive model was employed to test the correlation between climatic stability and genetic diversification. Our findings indicated that a reduction in species distribution due to severe climate change would lead to a substantial loss of genetic connectivity. More severe future climatic scenarios would likely cause greater loss of variability or more distinct homogenization in genetic variation of species. Relatively low interpolated genetic distances are generally associated with areas of greater losses in climatic suitability from the present to the future. The displacement of climatic genetic clusters will challenge species adaptation to future climate change because of the loss of fundamental evolutionary potential. The persistence capacity of plant species may be weakened in the face of future climate change.

scholarly journals Peatland Hydrological Dynamics as A Driver of Landscape Connectivity and Fire Activity in the Boreal Plain of Canada

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thompson ◽  
Simpson ◽  
Whitman ◽  
Barber ◽  
Parisien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Boreal Peatlands ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Moderate Drought

Drought is usually the precursor to large wildfires in northwestern boreal Canada, a region with both large wildfire potential and extensive peatland cover. Fire is a contagious process, and given weather conducive to burning, wildfires may be naturally limited by the connectivity of fuels and the connectivity of landscapes such as peatlands. Boreal peatlands fragment landscapes when wet and connect them when dry. The aim of this paper is to construct a framework by which the hydrological dynamics of boreal peatlands can be incorporated into standard wildfire likelihood models, in this case the Canadian Burn-P3 model. We computed hydrologically dynamic vegetation cover for peatlands (37% of the study area) on a real landscape in the Canadian boreal plain, corresponding to varying water table levels representing wet, moderate, and severely dry fuel moisture and hydrological conditions. Despite constant atmospheric drivers of fire spread (air temperature, humidity, and wind speed) between drought scenarios, fire activity increased 6-fold in moderate drought relative to a low drought baseline; severe (1 in 40 years) drought scenarios drove fires into previously fire-restrictive environments. Fire size increased 5-fold during moderate drought conditions and a further 20%–25% during severe drought. Future climate change is projected to lead to an increase in the incidence of severe drought in boreal forests, leading to increases in burned area due to increasing fire frequency and size where peatlands are most abundant. Future climate change in regions where peatlands have historically acted as important barriers to fire spread may amplify ongoing increases in fire activity already observed in Western North American forests.

scholarly journals 300 years of change for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin - historical flow alterations versus future climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Friedrichs-Manthey ◽  
Simone Daniela Langhans ◽  
Florian Borgwardt ◽  
Thomas Hein ◽  
Philipp Stanzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Native Fish ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Riverine Fish ◽  
Anthropogenic Alterations ◽  
Danube River Basin

River ecosystems belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect river ecosystems and the species therein. While many studies assess the potential effects of expected future changes on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300-year time series of hydrological and climate data to assess the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin. We calculated species-specific vulnerability estimates relative to the reference period (1970-2000) for the periods 1800-1830, 1900-1930, and 2070-2100, including two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and identified the environmental drivers of vulnerability estimates. Models showed that future changes under RCP 4.5 would result in moderate species vulnerability compared to historical conditions, while under RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species increased substantially. In addition, species vulnerability was mainly driven by hydrology in the past and is likely to be driven by temperature in the future. Our results show that future climate change would alter environmental conditions for riverine fish species at a similar magnitude as historical anthropogenic hydrological river alterations have. Shedding light on such long-term historical and possible future anthropogenic alterations provides valuable insights for prioritising conservation actions for riverine fish species.

scholarly journals The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1258-1266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orly Razgour ◽  
Javier Juste ◽  
Carlos Ibáñez ◽  
Andreas Kiefer ◽  
Hugo Rebelo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Xiaoyi Wang ◽  
Shaofa Yang ◽  
Xinlan Cheng ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Habitat Connectivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Dispersal Abilities

Abstract Background Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog. Results We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that “overwarm” climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50–75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward. Conclusions Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

scholarly journals Ancient events and climate adaptive capacity shaped distinct chloroplast genetic structure in the oak lineages

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengxiao Yan ◽  
Ruibin Liu ◽  
Ying Li ◽  
Andrew L. Hipp ◽  
Min Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Genetic Structure ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Spatial Genetic Structure ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Genetic Patterns ◽  
Genetic Structures

Abstract Background Understanding the origin of genetic variation is the key to predict how species will respond to future climate change. The genus Quercus is a species-rich and ecologically diverse woody genus that dominates a wide range of forests and woodland communities of the Northern Hemisphere. Quercus thus offers a unique opportunity to investigate how adaptation to environmental changes has shaped the spatial genetic structure of closely related lineages. Furthermore, Quercus provides a deep insight into how tree species will respond to future climate change. This study investigated whether closely related Quercus lineages have similar spatial genetic structures and moreover, what roles have their geographic distribution, ecological tolerance, and historical environmental changes played in the similar or distinct genetic structures. Results Despite their close relationships, the three main oak lineages (Quercus sections Cyclobalanopsis, Ilex, and Quercus) have different spatial genetic patterns and occupy different climatic niches. The lowest level and most homogeneous pattern of genetic diversity was found in section Cyclobalanopsis, which is restricted to warm and humid climates. The highest genetic diversity and strongest geographic genetic structure were found in section Ilex, which is due to their long-term isolation and strong local adaptation. The widespread section Quercus is distributed across the most heterogeneous range of environments; however, it exhibited moderate haplotype diversity. This is likely due to regional extinction during Quaternary climatic fluctuation in Europe and North America. Conclusions Genetic variations of sections Ilex and Quercus were significantly predicted by geographic and climate variations, while those of section Cyclobalanopsis were poorly predictable by geographic or climatic diversity. Apart from the different historical environmental changes experienced by different sections, variation of their ecological or climatic tolerances and physiological traits induced varying responses to similar environment changes, resulting in distinct spatial genetic patterns.

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Jones ◽  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Fabrizio Albanito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change
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