scholarly journals The Ockham’s razor for estimating the needs of ICU beds during a pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Squara
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Validation Phase ◽  
Simple Tool ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
Number Of Patients

Abstract Background It is possible to monitor an epidemic evolution by plotting the number of patients, or its log-transform, as a function of time. However, these representations do not allow quick identifications of significant changes in the outbreak; a key information for estimating the needs for hospital and ICU beds, for decision-making, and resource allocation. Moreover, an epidemic is characterised by a heterogeneous evolution that depends on many unpredictable factors, coming from the virus itself or from its ecosystem. Simulations are very complex and based on hypotheses that are impossible to certify a priori, since each outbreak is different and has specific characteristics. A validation phase is necessary that may delay the usefulness of these tools. We tested a simpler method for monitoring the epidemic and rapidly predicting the peak. Results We present here a simple and easy-to-draw figure by plotting the daily rate of change in the number of patients as a function of time. This allows: (1) to rapidly identify the changes in the infection growth, (2) to extrapolate the regression lines for predicting the peaks, and (3) to use simple statistical models for identifying the significant inflexions and deriving the uncertainties. This figure predicted confidently the peak epidemic of the three waves in France. Conclusion Plotting the daily rate of change in the number of patients as a function of time is a simple tool for monitoring an epidemic growth, allowing to quickly identify significant changes and to help in predicting the peak of the infection, with its confidence interval.

scholarly journals New approach for resource allocation in digital healthcare 4.0

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Istvan Budai ◽  
Balázs Kocsi ◽  
László Pusztai
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Process Mining ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Process Time ◽  
Patient Journey ◽  
Probable Number ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Methodological Improvement

The examination and automation opportunities in healthcare processes, which aims at reducing patient journey and their waiting time, while increasing the utilization of medical equipment as well as monitoring patients. Waiting times are playing a significant role in the total process time of patient care. One of the main reasons is the insufficient resource allocation. This research presents a methodological improvement which supports decision making in digital health processes. The current research provides a methodology that makes weekly human resource scheduling more efficient than before. With the combination of process mining and operations research, we developed a weighted forecast for the probable number of patients. During the research we processed historical data as well as we identified the bottlenecks in the examined health process. Furthermore, we took the causality into account. In today’s fast-paced societies, IT-based solutions are more and more frequently used in healthcare, with the aim of reducing risks and increase patient satisfaction. The method created by us offers a fast, precise and efficient solution to decision making in digital health processes.

Impact of multidisciplinary discussion on therapeutic decision in cancer patients: a prospective observational study.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18243-e18243
Author(s):  
Carla Pires Amaro ◽  
Larissa Gomes ◽  
Daniel Almeida ◽  
Kelly Reiner ◽  
Gustavo Fernandes Godoy Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Tumor Board ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Main Theme ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Impact

e18243 Background: Continued and rapid evolution of diagnosis and staging methods along with the development of new treatments has changed decision-making process of cancer patient into a more complex task. We evaluated the impact of multidisciplinary tumor board meetings (MTM) in the final decision of cancer patients approach in comparison to the initial decision based on clinical oncologist’s individual choice. Methods: Between April 2016 and January 2017, data were collected prospectively during the MTM held daily at the Antônio Ermírio de Moraes Cancer Center, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were gathered by filling out a questionnaire. The therapeutic plan initialy proposed by the physician was compared to the proposal offered by the multidisciplinary team. We evaluated data from breast, gastrointestinal (GI) and lung cancer MTM. Results: We evaluated 100 questionnaires: 39% GI tumors, 34% lung cancer, 27% breast cancer. The main theme for discussion was selection of systemic therapy (65%). The rate of change in therapy choice was 24.6%. The recommendation suggested by the MTM surgeons and radio-oncologists showed disagreement with the one initially proposed in 21 cases. The majority of discordant cases was related to the choice of therapeutic method (57%) with 42% changes in the chemotherapy protocol. Eight patients were submitted to genetic test and mutations search. Only two cases were recommended for clinical trial enrollment. Conclusions: The rate of therapy plan change after MTM is in accordance with international studies. The largest volume of discussions on systemic therapies reflects the large number of new therapies as well as new treatment strategies. This research highlights the potential of multidisciplinary discussions in changing decision-making in cancer cases, allowing a more comprehensive care with the patient. In addition, a MTM allows the access of more patients to new medications made available through clinical trials and protocols. The small number of patients referred to a clinical study reflects the lack of clinical protocols available in Brazil, a problem that needs to be acknowledged and become a priority for Brazilian medical societies and regulatory agencies.

Prophetic Leadership Model: Conceptualizing a Prophet’s Leadership Behaviour, Leader-Follower Mutuality and Altruism to Decision Making Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nik Maheran Nik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Spiritual Leadership ◽  
Leadership Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Leadership Model ◽  
Leadership Behaviour ◽  
Current Leadership

This article advocates that research is lacking on the connection between leadership theory and social network theory. To date, little empirical research has been conducted on leadership and social networks. Thus, the proposition of this article goes beyond traditional leadership models to advocate for a fuller and more integrative focus that is multilevel, multi-component and interdisciplinary, while recognizing that leadership is a complex function of both the organisational leaders and the followers who perform tasks, all of which subsequently leads to decision making qualities. Indeed, the current leadership model focuses on leadership behaviour and the ability to gain followers mutuality, to achieve decision making quality involving the integration of leadership and social network theories. Given the apparent mutable palette of contemporary leadership theory, this emergent construct of the leadership paradigm can expand the poles of the leadership continuum and contribute to a richer and deeper understanding of the relationships and responsibilities of leaders and followers as they relate to decision making qualities. This new construct, which is termed prophetic leadership, explores the literature of the life experiences of the prophet in the ‘Abrahamic Faith’ religion. Drawing on a priori links between the personality trait and spiritual leadership that has recently garnered the interest of scholars, the present study asserts a normative leadership theory that links the personal quality of a leader, posture and principal (based on the Prophet’s leadership behaviour) to synergy and decision making quality. Altruism is proposed to enhance relationships between leadership behaviour and decision making quality. For future research, much work needs to be done specifically aiming to (a) achieve greater clarity of construct definitions, (b) address measurement issues, and (c) avoid construct redundancy.

Prophetic Leadership Model: Conceptualizing a Prophet’s Leadership Behaviour, Leader-Follower Mutuality and Altruism to Decision Making Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nik Maheran Nik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Spiritual Leadership ◽  
Leadership Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Leadership Model ◽  
Leadership Behaviour ◽  
Current Leadership

This article advocates that research is lacking on the connection between leadership theory and social network theory. To date, little empirical research has been conducted on leadership and social networks. Thus, the proposition of this article goes beyond traditional leadership models to advocate for a fuller and more integrative focus that is multilevel, multi-component and interdisciplinary, while recognizing that leadership is a complex function of both the organisational leaders and the followers who perform tasks, all of which subsequently leads to decision making qualities. Indeed, the current leadership model focuses on leadership behaviour and the ability to gain followers mutuality, to achieve decision making quality involving the integration of leadership and social network theories. Given the apparent mutable palette of contemporary leadership theory, this emergent construct of the leadership paradigm can expand the poles of the leadership continuum and contribute to a richer and deeper understanding of the relationships and responsibilities of leaders and followers as they relate to decision making qualities. This new construct, which is termed prophetic leadership, explores the literature of the life experiences of the prophet in the ‘Abrahamic Faith’ religion. Drawing on a priori links between the personality trait and spiritual leadership that has recently garnered the interest of scholars, the present study asserts a normative leadership theory that links the personal quality of a leader, posture and principal (based on the Prophet’s leadership behaviour) to synergy and decision making quality. Altruism is proposed to enhance relationships between leadership behaviour and decision making quality. For future research, much work needs to be done specifically aiming to (a) achieve greater clarity of construct definitions, (b) address measurement issues, and (c) avoid construct redundancy.

Research and analysis of business management processes implemented under conditions of incomplete certainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Klimenko ◽  
A. Ivlev
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Statistical Uncertainty ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Classical Decision ◽  
Decision Making Criteria

The study carried out in this work made it possible to expand the rank scale for a priori assessment of the chosen strategy in terms of increasing the sensitivity of assessing the caution / negligence ratio using risky, as well as classical decision-making criteria under conditions of statistical uncertainty.

Employing needs-based funding formulae – some unavoidable tradeoffs

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 1092-1102
Author(s):  
Tal Gilead ◽  
Iris BenDavid-Hadar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Social Equity ◽  
School Resources ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Funding Formula ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Theoretical Investigations ◽  
Schooling System

Purpose The method by which the state allocates resources to its schooling system can serve as an important instrument for achieving desired improvements in levels of educational attainment, social equity and other social policy goals. In many school systems, the allocation of school resources is done according to a needs-based funding formula. The purpose of this paper is to provide a deeper understanding of some significant tradeoffs involved in employing needs-based funding formulae. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on theoretical investigations of normative aspects involved in using needs-based funding formulae. Findings There are a number of underexplored complications and difficulties that arise from the use of needs-based funding formulae. Dealing with these involves significant tradeoffs that require taking normative decisions. Understanding these tradeoffs is important for improving the use of needs-based funding formulae. Originality/value The paper highlights three under-examined issues that emerge from the current use of needs-based funding formulae. These issues are: to what extent funding formulae should be responsive to social and economic needs? To what extent should funding formulae allow for the use of discretion in resource allocation? To what degree needs-based formulae funding should be linked to outcomes? By discussing these issues and the tradeoffs involved in them, the paper provides a deeper understanding of significant aspects stemming from the use of needs-based funding formulae. This, in turn, can serve as a basis for an improved and better informed process for decision making regarding the use of funding formulae.

DECISION MAKING BY VARIABLE CONTRIBUTION IN DISCRIMINANT, LOGIT, AND REGRESSION ANALYSES

2004 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 265-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
STAN LIPOVETSKY ◽  
MICHAEL CONKLIN
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Discriminant Functions ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Variable Contribution ◽  
Linear Aggregate

Comparative contribution of predictors in multivariate statistical models is widely used for decision making on the importance of the variables for the aims of analysis and prediction. However, the analysis can be made difficult because of the predictors' multicollinearity that distorts estimates for coefficients in the linear aggregate. To solve the problem of the robust evaluation of the predictors' contribution, we apply the Shapley Value regression analysis that provides consistent results in the presence of multicollinearity both for regression and discriminant functions. We also show how the linear discriminant function can be constructed as a multiple regression, and how the logistic regression can be approximated by linear regression that helps to obtain the variables contribution in the linear aggregate.

scholarly journals Publicity and Common Commitment to Believe

Erkenntnis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. G. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Functional Role ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Standard Analysis ◽  
Joint Intention ◽  
Normative Role

AbstractInformation can be public among a group. Whether or not information is public matters, for example, for accounts of interdependent rational choice, of communication, and of joint intention. A standard analysis of public information identifies it with (some variant of) common belief. The latter notion is stipulatively defined as an infinite conjunction: for p to be commonly believed is for it to believed by all members of a group, for all members to believe that all members believe it, and so forth. This analysis is often presupposed without much argument in philosophy. Theoretical entrenchment or intuitions about cases might give some traction on the question, but give little insight about why the identification holds, if it does. The strategy of this paper is to characterize a practical-normative role for information being public, and show that the only things that play that role are (variants of) common belief as stipulatively characterized. In more detail: a functional role for “taking a proposition for granted” in non-isolated decision making is characterized. I then present some minimal conditions under which such an attitude is correctly held. The key assumption links this attitude to beliefs about what is public. From minimal a priori principles, we can argue that a proposition being public among a group entails common commitment to believe among that group. Later sections explore partial converses to this result, the factivity of publicity and publicity from the perspective of outsiders to the group, and objections to the aprioricity of the result deriving from a posteriori existential presuppositions.

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