scholarly journals Lahar risk assessment from source identification to potential impact analysis: the case of Vulcano Island, Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Gattuso ◽  
Costanza Bonadonna ◽  
Corine Frischknecht ◽  
Sabatino Cuomo ◽  
Valérie Baumann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Internal Flow ◽  
Active System ◽  
Vulcano Island ◽  
Deposit Thickness ◽  
Geometrical Properties ◽  
Tephra Fallout

AbstractLahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in the absence of hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to internal flow properties and topographic interactions) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (due to deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the geometrical properties of the topography where they propagate. Here we present the assessment of risk associated with lahar using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, we estimated an initial lahar source volume considering the remobilisation by intense rain events of the tephra fallout on the slopes of the La Fossa cone (the active system on the island), where the tephra fallout is associated with the most likely scenario (e.g. long-lasting Vulcanian cycle). Second, we modelled and identified the potential syn-eruptive lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where residential and touristic facilities are located. We tested a range of parameters (e.g., entrainment capability, consolidation of tephra fallout deposit, friction angle) that can influence lahar propagation output both in terms of intensity of the event and extent of the inundation area. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile exposure and risk maps for lahar-flow front velocity (semi-quantitative indicator-based risk assessment) and final lahar-deposit thickness (qualitative exposure-based risk assessment). Main outcomes show that the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with medium entrainment capability produces the highest impact associated with building burial by the final lahar deposit. Nonetheless, the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with low entrainment capacity is associated with higher runout and results in the highest impact associated with lahar-flow velocities. Based on our simulations, two critical infrastructures (telecommunication and power plant), as well as the main road crossing the island are exposed to potential lahar impacts (either due to lahar-flow velocity or lahar-deposit thickness or both). These results show that a risk-based spatial planning of the island could represent a valuable strategy to reduce the volcanic risk in the long term.

scholarly journals Lahar Risk Assessment: the Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Gattuso ◽  
Costanza Bonadonna ◽  
Corine Frischknecht ◽  
Sabatino Cuomo ◽  
Valerie Baumann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Velocity ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Vulcano Island ◽  
Deposit Thickness ◽  
Sph Model

Abstract Lahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in absence of a hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to flow rheology and surrounding topography) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (related to the deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the overall characteristics of the path where they propagate. Here we present a novel strategy for the assessment of risk associated with lahar inundation related both to flow velocity and deposit thickness using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, a range of hazard scenarios has been identified that are related to the mobilization by intense rain events of tephra fallout deposited on the slopes of the La Fossa cone by a future Vulcanian eruption. Second, a numerical model has been used to identify the potential lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where both residential and touristic facilities are present. In this specific case we have used the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) model that provides information on both flow velocity and deposit thickness. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile risk maps for both lahar-flow velocity and final lahar-deposit thickness. Our analyses show the importance of carrying out accurate and detailed risk assessments exploring a variety of initial conditions in order to best quantify the potential damage and identify suitable mitigation strategies.

Explosion Recurrence Modelling

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sirous F. Yasseri ◽  
Jake Prager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
The North ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Explosion Load

This paper describes a recurrence law for explosions. The proposed recurrence law fits quite well to the historic explosion data in residential buildings as well as to the data on offshore installations in the North Sea. Generally quantified explosion risk assessment is performed for offshore installations, since it is believed historic data does not correspond to a specific installation and it may not be appropriate for use in performance based explosion engineering, which may in itself require realistic load description of explosion recurrence. The goodness-of-fit of the model for explosion occurrence data obtained using the quantified risk assessment method is also discussed. The paper then introduces the concept of performance-based design, which is an attempt to design structures with predictable performance under explosion loading. Performance objectives such as life safety, collapse prevention, or immediate resumption of operation are used to define the state of an installation following a design explosion. The recurrence law is then used to associate a level of explosion load to each limit state using a desirable level of probability of exceedance during the installations life time.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Nonengineered Residential Buildings: State of the Practice

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 04014027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miqdad Khalfan ◽  
Michael J. Tait ◽  
Wael W. El-Dakhakhni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment

scholarly journals Impact of Technical, Human, and Organizational Risks on Reliability of Fire Safety Systems in High-Rise Residential Buildings—Applications of an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 8918
Author(s):  
Samson Tan ◽  
Darryl Weinert ◽  
Paul Joseph ◽  
Khalid Moinuddin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Assessment ◽  
Active Systems ◽  
High Rise ◽  
Safety Systems ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

The current paper presents an application of an alternative probabilistic risk assessment methodology that incorporates technical, human, and organizational risks (T-H-O-Risk) using Bayesian network (BN) and system dynamics (SD) modelling. Seven case studies demonstrate the application of this holistic approach to the designs of high-rise residential buildings. An incremental risk approach allows for quantification of the impact of human and organizational errors (HOEs) on different fire safety systems. The active systems considered are sprinklers, building occupant warning systems, smoke detectors, and smoke control systems. The paper presents detailed results from T-H-O-Risk modelling for HOEs and risk variations over time utilizing the SD modelling to compare risk acceptance in the seven case studies located in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, and UK. Results indicate that HOEs impact risks in active systems up to ~33%. Large variations are observed in the reliability of active systems due to HOEs over time. SD results indicate that a small behavioral change in ’risk perception’ of a building management team can lead to a very large risk to life variations over time through the self-reinforcing feedback loops. The quantification of difference in expected risk to life due to technical, human, and organizational risks for seven buildings for each of 16 trial designs is a novel aspect of this study. The research is an important contribution to the development of the next generation building codes and risk assessment methods.

Land-Use Planning and Environmental Protection: Convergence or Divergence?

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 985-1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Lichfield ◽  
U Marinov
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Advanced Practice ◽  
Common Goal ◽  
Environmental Impact Analysis ◽  
Urban And Regional Planning ◽  
Operating Side

There exist two streams of activity operating side by side with regard to the environment: Urban and regional planning, and environmental protection. They have a common goal, the enhancement of man's environment. The first question is whether or not they should converge or diverge; this being answered affirmatively, then the question is how? This is considered in relation to control over the development of projects. Advanced practice is reviewed here, and then how practice could be improved by environmental impact analysis being matured into development-impact analysis with impact being seen as three sequential aspects: physical, activity, and welfare. The conclusions can then be translated into planning analysis, through the use of planning balance-sheet analysis, aimed at drawing a conclusion which is more suitable for decisionmaking than the conventional environmental impact analysis. The merging of the two streams would both sharpen the use of environmental impact analysis as currently practised and raise the level of performance of conventional planning analysis.

IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE INSPIRE DIRECTIVE ON LAND-USE PLANNING PUBLICATION AND DEVELOPMENT

2017 ◽  
Vol 165 (45) ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
WALDEMAR IZDEBSKI ◽  
ZBIGNIEW MALINOWSKI
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Spatial Data Sets

The INSPIRE Directive went into force in May 2007 and it resulted in changing the way of thinking about spatial data in local government. Transposition of the Directive on Polish legislation is the Law on spatial information infrastructure from 4 March 2010., which indicates the need for computerization of spatial data sets (including land-use planning). This act resulted in an intensification of thinking about the computerization of spatial data, but, according to the authors, the needs and aspirations of the digital land-use planning crystallized already before the INSPIRE Directive and were the result of technological development and increasing the awareness of users. The authors analyze the current state of land-use planning data computerization in local governments. The analysis was conducted on a group of more than 1,700 local governments, which are users of spatial data management (GIS) technology eGmina.

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