scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution. Results A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months. Conclusions One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution. Results: A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3,981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months. Conclusions: One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution. Results: A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3,981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months. Conclusions: One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

Abstract Background : The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the World. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions. Results: A total of 101,739 infected individuals was confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 75,528 active cases, 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3,981 in intensive care. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 130,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic greater than 2 months. Conclusions : Once month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic. The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

Abstract Background: The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the World. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions. Results: We reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (43.0%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (27.3%), recovered or discharged (14.4%), deceased (11.4%), and hospitalized in intensive care (3.9%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 130,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic greater than 2 months. Conclusions: Once month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

AbstractBackgroundThe first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people after China. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.MethodsWe analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 26 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions.ResultsWe reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (42%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (31%), recovered or discharged (13%), deceased (10%), and hospitalized in intensive care (4%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 115,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic not less than 2 months.ConclusionsOnce month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.

scholarly journals Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ghassane Benrhmach ◽  
Khalil Namir ◽  
Jamal Bouyaghroumni
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple strategies like testing, contact tracing, and social distancing. Predictive mathematical models for epidemics are fundamental to understand the development of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Some hosts may carry SARS‐CoV‐2 and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. We propose applying a model (SELIAHRD) taking in consideration the number of asymptomatic infected people. The SELIAHRD model consists of eight stages: Susceptible, Exposed, Latent, Symptomatic Infected, Asymptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Dead. The asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. The simulation of possible scenarios of the implementation of social distancing shows that if we rigorously follow the social distancing rule then the healthcare system will not be overloaded.

scholarly journals The Global Emergency of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): An Update of the Current Status and Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Hozhabri ◽  
Francesca Piceci Sparascio ◽  
Hamidreza Sohrabi ◽  
Leila Mousavifar ◽  
René Roy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Published Evidence ◽  
Human Coronaviruses ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Over the past two decades, there have been two major outbreaks where the crossover of animal Betacoronaviruses to humans has resulted in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). In December 2019, a global public health concern started with the emergence of a new strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or 2019 novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV) which has rapidly spread all over the world from its origin in Wuhan, China. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the Betacoronavirus genus, which includes human SARS-CoV, MERS and two other human coronaviruses (HCoVs), HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. The fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is lower than the two previous coronavirus epidemics, but it is faster spreading and the large number of infected people with severe viral pneumonia and respiratory illness, showed SARS-CoV-2 to be highly contagious. Based on the current published evidence, herein we summarize the origin, genetics, epidemiology, clinical manifestations, preventions, diagnosis and up to date treatments of SARS-CoV-2 infections in comparison with those caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Moreover, the possible impact of weather conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is also discussed. Therefore, the aim of the present review is to reconsider the two previous pandemics and provide a reference for future studies as well as therapeutic approaches.

scholarly journals An Overview of the Sociodemographic Considerations of COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. 34-39
Author(s):  
Ugbomah Lucy Ohoreorovwori ◽  
Stanley Catherine Nonyelum ◽  
Stanley Princewill Chukwuemeka
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Irregular Migrants ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Difficulties ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Difficult Situations

Background: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus strain. The virus is believed to spread mainly by respiratory droplets where the infected people breathe, cough or sneeze and expel little droplets of moisture that contain the virus.Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are mostly affected. Method: Relevant literatures were reviewed from the internet, electronic and print media, World Health Organization and Center for Disease Control documentation. Results: The coronavirus has brought difficult situations for citizens across the world. Refugees and irregular migrants who find themselves in difficult situations are more vulnerable to the effect of the virus and the social difficulties associated with it. Conclusion: The spread of the virus can be slowed or suppressed through social distancing, natural immunity, and observance of optimal hygiene practice and near compulsory use of face masks, particularly while dealing with the public.

scholarly journals Real-time neural network based predictor for cov19 virus spread

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243189
Author(s):  
Michał Wieczorek ◽  
Jakub Siłka ◽  
Dawid Połap ◽  
Marcin Woźniak ◽  
Robertas Damaševičius
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
World Health ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Since the epidemic outbreak in early months of 2020 the spread of COVID-19 has grown rapidly in most countries and regions across the World. Because of that, SARS-CoV-2 was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2020, by The World Health Organization (WHO). That’s why many scientists are working on new methods to reduce further growth of new cases and, by intelligent patients allocation, reduce number of patients per doctor, what can lead to more successful treatments. However to properly manage the COVID-19 spread there is a need for real-time prediction models which can reliably support various decisions both at national and international level. The problem in developing such system is the lack of general knowledge how the virus spreads and what would be the number of cases each day. Therefore prediction model must be able to conclude the situation from past data in the way that results will show a future trend and will possibly closely relate to the real numbers. In our opinion Artificial Intelligence gives a possibility to do it. In this article we present a model which can work as a part of an online system as a real-time predictor to help in estimation of COVID-19 spread. This prediction model is developed using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to estimate the future situation by the use of geo-location and numerical data from past 2 weeks. The results of our model are confirmed by comparing them with real data and, during our research the model was correctly predicting the trend and very closely matching the numbers of new cases in each day.

Current Status on Treatments and Clinical Trials for COVID-19 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guosheng Yin ◽  
Chenyang Zhang ◽  
Huaqing Jin
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fast Speed ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

UNSTRUCTURED With the worldwide rapidly growing number of patients infected with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the death toll has also been climbing up at a fast speed. There is an urgent need to search for cures for COVID-19 patients. A large number of clinical trials have been launched to test some existing or new antiviral therapeutics and vaccines. In contrast to starting from the scratch, many trials are initiated directly in phase II or III with the hope to expedite the developmental process. We summarize the information on the registered trials for the top ten COVID-19 drugs, and give an overview on the current situation and trend of treatments and clinical trials. In particular, we review those trials that have already been finished and discuss lessons that can be learned from them.

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