scholarly journals Modelling and Simulating the Novel Coronavirus with Implications of Asymptomatic Carriers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ghassane Benrhmach ◽  
Khalil Namir ◽  
Jamal Bouyaghroumni
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization declared that the total number of confirmed cases tested positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, affecting 210 countries, exceeded 3 million on 29 April 2020, with more than 207,973 deaths. In order to end the global COVID‐19 pandemic, public authorities have put in place multiple strategies like testing, contact tracing, and social distancing. Predictive mathematical models for epidemics are fundamental to understand the development of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Some hosts may carry SARS‐CoV‐2 and transmit it to others, yet display no symptoms themselves. We propose applying a model (SELIAHRD) taking in consideration the number of asymptomatic infected people. The SELIAHRD model consists of eight stages: Susceptible, Exposed, Latent, Symptomatic Infected, Asymptomatic Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Dead. The asymptomatic carriers contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission. The simulation of possible scenarios of the implementation of social distancing shows that if we rigorously follow the social distancing rule then the healthcare system will not be overloaded.

Exponential growth impact of COVID-19 pandemic-world scenario, preventive measures and drug preferences (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aneesh Kumar K V
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) declared 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of today, 17 May 2020 around 3,16,520 death and 47,99,266 coronavirus infected cases are reported worldwide. There is about 26,25,463 active cases are now under treatment and several lakhs of people are under quarantine. Therefore, an attempt has been made to explain briefly about the characteristics of the virus, current review, COVID-19 symptoms, precautions, available vaccines etc. In addition, a case study was also conducted to provide the dangerous picture of drastic growth of infected people around the world during the span of time. OBJECTIVE World Health Organization (WHO) has announced the COVID-19 outbreak as a global public health emergency and pandemic, spreading fast with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. At present, no vaccines are available for the treatment of patients with COVID_19 disease. A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the world to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. This effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide. It is also anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical anti-virus related studies. METHODS A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. For our study, we preferred five most coronavirus effected countries in the world viz., China, Itali, USA, Spain, India in the month of February and March 2020, and later extended to 17 May 2020. Based on the current published evidence, we precisely summarize the disease, characteristics of the virus, current world scenario, available treatment options and preventive measures to be taken against COVID-19. RESULTS Effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide.The medicines like Remdesivir, Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine, Ritonavir/Lopinavir and combined with Interferon beta are the experimental treatments currently being researched. Treatment with Lopinavir and Ritonavir or Chloroquine should be recommended in older patients with serious symptoms. The main risk factor of COVID-19 is travel and exposure to the virus. Lockdown, quarantine and thereby maintaining the ‘social distancing’ are the suitable method for controlling the out spread of coronavirus. Moreover, it is individual’s responsibility to take prompt measures to control the fast spreading of this virus disease. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 disease is spreading fast uncontrolled with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. Our case study details the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. The exact source, characteristics of the virus is unknown and no suitable drugs have been developed as of today. Symptomatic treatments are available and the list is provided, no need to panic. Conclusion is to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. Anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical antivirus related studies.

scholarly journals An Overview of the Sociodemographic Considerations of COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. 34-39
Author(s):  
Ugbomah Lucy Ohoreorovwori ◽  
Stanley Catherine Nonyelum ◽  
Stanley Princewill Chukwuemeka
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Irregular Migrants ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Difficulties ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Difficult Situations

Background: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus strain. The virus is believed to spread mainly by respiratory droplets where the infected people breathe, cough or sneeze and expel little droplets of moisture that contain the virus.Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are mostly affected. Method: Relevant literatures were reviewed from the internet, electronic and print media, World Health Organization and Center for Disease Control documentation. Results: The coronavirus has brought difficult situations for citizens across the world. Refugees and irregular migrants who find themselves in difficult situations are more vulnerable to the effect of the virus and the social difficulties associated with it. Conclusion: The spread of the virus can be slowed or suppressed through social distancing, natural immunity, and observance of optimal hygiene practice and near compulsory use of face masks, particularly while dealing with the public.

scholarly journals Coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19 and impacts on medical education: a systematic review

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Kelly Kelly ◽  
Lie Rebecca Yen Hwei ◽  
Gilbert Sterling Octavius
Keyword(s):  
Medical Education ◽  
Clinical Skills ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Online Platforms ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Global Threat

Since the beginning of 2020, the world has been affected by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. The virus’ infectious nature pushed all sectors to implement social distancing measures in an effort to limit its transmission, including the education sector. We searched PubMed and Science Direct on June 12th and found 24 papers that are relevant to our review. After the World Health Organization announced that COVID-19 is a global threat, various countries took a variety of measures to limit the disease spread such as social distancing, self-quarantine, and closing public facilities that hold large gatherings, including universities and schools. Hospitals started to prioritize services for COVID-19 cases. Medical education programs are also affected by this disease, but not continuing in-person classes outweighs any benefit from traditional teaching methods. The previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) pandemics have shown ways to shift medical education to online platforms. In the current pandemic, online meetings are being used to hold lectures, classes, laboratory practices, and clinical skills classes. For clerkship students, online platforms might not be feasible because this eliminates patient-doctor relationships, but it appears for now to be the only option. Some institutions have involved medical students in the frontlines altogether. We encourage all parties to constantly evaluate, review, and improve the efforts of continuing medical education, especially during this pandemic. Further research is needed to evaluate students’ performance after adopting e-learning and to discover the best methods in medical education in general and clerkship education in particular.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effective Control Strategy for the Transmission Dynamics of Global Pandemic COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. A. Biswas ◽  
M. S. Khatun ◽  
A. K. Paul ◽  
M. R. Khatun ◽  
M. A. Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Principle ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Pontryagin’S Maximum Principle ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Human Immune System ◽  
Pontryagin's Maximum Principle ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Major Factors

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease (namely COVID-19) has taken attention because of its deadliness across the globe, causing a massive death as well as critical situation around the world. It is an infectious disease which is caused by newly discovered coronavirus. Our study demonstrates with a nonlinear model of this devastating COVID-19 which narrates transmission from human-to-human in the society. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle has also been applied in order to obtain optimal control strategies where the maintenance of social distancing is the major control. The target of this study is to find out the most fruitful control measures of averting coronavirus infection and eventually, curtailed of the COVID-19 transmission among people. The model is investigated analytically by using most familiar necessary conditions of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been performed to illustrate the analytical results. The analysis reveals that implementation of educational campaign, social distancing and developing human immune system are the major factors which can be able to plunge the scenario of becoming infected.

scholarly journals ASSESS THE AWARENESS AND ATTITUDE REGARDING PREVENTION OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 95-98
Author(s):  
SAHBANATHUL MISSRIYA MA ◽  
SUHAIL HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
The People ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Objective: Coronavirus disease is the first pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus. The World Health Organization announced a name for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This epidemic must stop, contain, control, delay, and reduce the impact of this virus by the people at every opportunity. Every person has the responsibility to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the health-care system, the workplace, or in the transport system. The study was aimed to assess the level of awareness and attitude regarding the prevention of novel coronavirus disease among people and to associate the knowledge level about the prevention of novel coronavirus disease with selected demographic variables of people. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive design was adopted. Using a convenient sampling technique, 950 samples were selected. The data were collected, analyzed in terms of both descriptive, and inferential statistics. Results: The study results showed that among the total number of people (950) surveyed, 499 (52.6%) were having poor knowledge, whereas 348 (36.6%) were having an average level of knowledge and 103 (10.8%) were showing good knowledge regarding prevention of COVID-19. Some of the people (40.7%) had a negative attitude on the overall aspects of COVID-19 prevention. Conclusion: The study concluded that there were inadequate awareness and poor attitude among the people about coronavirus diseases, and hence there is a need to create awareness through campaigns by public authorities and media.

scholarly journals Dilemma in the foreign lands during COVID-19: An outlook of expat health care professionals with a take on a social perspective

Work ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 779-782
Author(s):  
Namdeo Prabhu ◽  
Rakhi Issrani
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection a global pandemic due to the fast transmission of this disease worldwide. To prevent and slow the transmission of this contagious illness, the public health officials of many affected countries scrambled to introduce measures aimed at controlling its spread. As a result, unprecedented interventions/measures, including strict contact tracing, quarantine of entire towns/cities, closing of borders and travel restrictions, have been implemented by most of the affected countries including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to share health care professionals’ perspectives who are experiencing COVID19 firsthand in a foreign land. In addition, the role of the Saudi governance to combat the current situation is also discussed. DISCUSSION: Personal and previous experiences as related to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) by the authors has been compared to the current situation and how it affected our thoughts and management. A review of the evidence-based literature was conducted to investigate the demographics of the region; and to understand the awareness of the various tools that are available and how they were utilized in the present situation of pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Saudi Arabia has been challenged during the pandemic as are other countries.

scholarly journals An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model

2021 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenning Li ◽  
Jianhua Gong ◽  
Jieping Zhou ◽  
Lihui Zhang ◽  
Dongchuan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Preparedness ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Developmental Characteristics ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control.

scholarly journals IOT IN THE WAKE OF COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol XLVI-4/W5-2021 ◽  
pp. 103-107
Author(s):  
K. Belasri ◽  
T. Mazri
Keyword(s):  
Quality Care ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Internet Of Things ◽  
Shed Light

Abstract. Healthcare is an imperative portion of life. Tragically, the exceptional outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus, named as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO), has strained the largest part of health systems and the request for resources from hospital packs to specialists and nurses have become extremely high. However, With the rise of the Internet of Things, new services in healthcare will be accessible and existing systems will be coordinated within the IoT system, giving automated medical supervision and efficient medical treatment, it is evident that a solution is necessary and required to promote the health sector in the era of Covid-19 pandemic whereas proceeding to supply a high-quality care to patients. In this article, we shed light on a few of the issues and challenges related to the appropriation of portable contact tracing and monitoring of patients’ arrangements for fighting COVID-19.

scholarly journals China’s fight against COVID-19: What we have done and what we should do next?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sixiang Cheng ◽  
Yuxin Zhao ◽  
Atipatsa Chiwanda Kaminga ◽  
Pingxin Zhang ◽  
Huilan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Epidemiology ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractBackgroundOn 12 March, the World Health Organization Director-General declared that “the threat of a global pandemic has become a reality”, and the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19, has become a global concern. Chinese efforts in curbing the virus have widely been recognized. Even the WHO has lauded the efforts of the Chinese government and advised the world to learn from China in fighting the disease. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, to curb the spread of the epidemic, the Chinese government has implemented unprecedented prevention interventions at the nationwide level. Currently, the outbreak in Wuhan is changing in a positive direction and has been effectively controlled. However, it is not clear what these measures were and how these measures changed to curb the outbreak of COVID-19 quickly. This study explored the characteristics and identified that China’s control strategies have changed the epidemiological curve of rapidly rising new confirmed cases of COVID-19. This study also seeks to expand the experiences and lessons from this outbreak.MethodsWe collected public health interventions measures from Jan 20, 2020, to 5 March 2020, and data from COVID-19 daily newly confirmed cases and daily cumulates cases to compare the control effects and changing trends. We performed a retrospective description of these intervention strategies from three stages. Besides, from the perspective of public health, the experiences and lessons exposed by this outbreak were roughly summarized.ResultsThese non-pharmacology interventions measures adopted by the Chinese government by the instruction and spirit of President Xi Jinping were timely and efficient.ConclusionsThe present study was conducted to comprehensively analyze from a social epidemiology context. The results confirmed that these radical interventions taken by the Chinese government were effective, ambitious, and agile. However, we must be aware that the epidemic situation in Wuhan is still challenging.

scholarly journals Biological Property of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV)

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Emebet Mohammed Abdu ◽  
Abeba Haile Mariamenatu
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Rna Virus ◽  
Antiviral Drug ◽  
Biological Properties ◽  
Health Condition ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
E Proteins ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a positive-sense RNA virus that possesses four genes that encode the spike (S), membrane (M), nucleocapsid (N), and envelope (E) proteins. The virus was originated in seafood market selling live animals and responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The initial case was traced to the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei, China, reported as an emerging respiratory virus, the outbreak was reported to WHO on December 31, 2019, and soon after identified the causative pathogen as a beta coronavirus named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Furthermore, It is a highly contagious virus that spreads swiftly outside of China in March and the World Health Organization had to declare COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020, and as of August 15, 2020, more than 21 million confirmed cases have been reported, with > 755 786 deaths worldwide. This day’s novel coronavirus-2019 is the most infectious virus with high infectivity and low mortality rate where a high mortality rate was observed among people above the age of sixteen (60) years and with the pre-existing health condition. To date, there is no clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine available to be used against COVID-19. However, Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines have been discussed as ways to reduce transmission. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to summarize the basic biological properties of novel coronavirus 2019. Int. J. Appl. Sci. Biotechnol. Vol 9(1): 16-22

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